2nd tier stars HOF chance?

[Golabki]

AK47 is an easy HOFer.
You guys realize that the hall is basketball, not just the NBA.

he really hasn't done that much on the international stage. He was the best player on some decent russian teams in the olympics... that's about it.

I think that's a key point.

I've mentioned this before, but I think there is often confusion about how the "international player" thing works in the HOF. Its never really been used as a backdoor for NBA guys who wouldn't make it normally, but hey, look, he also played for his NT. The international players taken are normally guys who's PRIMARY work/reputation was made overseas. If you are mostly famous for being an NBA guy, you seem to be judged in or out purely as an NBA guy. Dirk is an NBA guy. Parker is an NBA guy. Ak47. Manu. Vlade was. Peja. The Gasol brothers might be the first time we see that blurred, but we'll have to see. There are different committees deciding who gets in or out, and the NBA committee only looks at NBA stuff, and the international committee I think only looks at international stuff. I don't think there's any committee doing what we do and lumping it all together into a body of work.

Manu was the best player in the Euro League at one time and beat the US for gold. That's different than Dirk/Parker/AK47/Gasols, who play international ball, but never player a major role in the euro league and didn't have a singular moment in the international game.

[Witzig-Okashi]

These guys are one point in their career, on the fringe of stardom, or had prolonged allstar stretch. Which of them have HOF chance?

- Amare Stoudamire
- Joe Johnson
- Antawn Jamison
- Vince Carter
- Deron Williams
- Gilbert Arenas
- Andrei Kirilenko
- Shawn Marion
- Tyson Chandler
- Ben Wallace
- Chauncey Billups
- Chris Webber

Vince, Billups, and probably Webber are the only ones that are surefire HOFers, though none of the aforementioned are first ballots. Defensive players have a harder time getting in, so if Big Ben does make it, he's going to wait a while. Tyson Chandler doesn't have much of a chance to me, he defensive impact hasn't been sustained at a high enough level, and he wasn't a defensive superstar in the same light as Deke and Big Ben, who aren't first ballot HOFers. Amare and Marion could get in (due to the HOF standards), but both will wait a while. I loved watching Marion, and felt he was snubbed as a all-defensive team member because of the Suns system (and Raja Bell already getting in during the 05-06 season, his best chance, hurt his chances, too). But he wasn't better than the third player for the majority of those Suns (excluding the 06 season) or Mavs teams, and he didn't do it multiple times like Worthy and Bosh (who will likely get in the Hall under the same circumstances). Deron Williams and Gilbert Arenas have no chance, IMO. I don't know enough about AK47's international career to say if he will make it. Is it better than a guy like Stojakovic?

Jamison is an interesting pick. I don't think he should get in, but he was an accomplished player at UNC (Wooden and Naismith Award winner), and did have sustained success in the league, albeit not enough to warrant a definite HOF mention. It's odd. He's seems to be in between Chris Mullin and Christian Laettner, in that he had a better NBA career than the latter, but was a tier below Mullin as a star in the league. All three are accomplished players in college (Laettner might be the last NCAA player to get in the Hall just based on his collegiate career), but to varying degrees. Once again, don't think he's a HOFer, but his situation is unique. Vince was better in the league (and the better prospect), but he hasn't done that much to stand out other than be a 20,000 scorer (like Jamison), and perhaps save the NBA from losing Toronto to another city. Love that he has been able to sustain his career as a role player, and he's a question mark in my book, but he's a shoe-in at this point.

Chris Webber will get in eventually, although, I do wonder how the situation concerning Michigan will affect his chances, or at least how long he has to wait. I don't know if he's reconciled with Michigan, and I don't think that the HOF committee will overlook it as easy as some may think...

[Winsome Gerbil]

he really hasn't done that much on the international stage. He was the best player on some decent russian teams in the olympics... that's about it.

I think that's a key point.

I've mentioned this before, but I think there is often confusion about how the "international player" thing works in the HOF. Its never really been used as a backdoor for NBA guys who wouldn't make it normally, but hey, look, he also played for his NT. The international players taken are normally guys who's PRIMARY work/reputation was made overseas. If you are mostly famous for being an NBA guy, you seem to be judged in or out purely as an NBA guy. Dirk is an NBA guy. Parker is an NBA guy. Ak47. Manu. Vlade was. Peja. The Gasol brothers might be the first time we see that blurred, but we'll have to see. There are different committees deciding who gets in or out, and the NBA committee only looks at NBA stuff, and the international committee I think only looks at international stuff. I don't think there's any committee doing what we do and lumping it all together into a body of work.

Manu was the best player in the Euro League at one time and beat the US for gold. That's different than Dirk/Parker/AK47/Gasols, who play international ball, but never player a major role in the euro league and didn't have a singular moment in the international game.

True about Manu, although I think if he makes it, it will be as an NBAer. Put another way, if he had come to the NBA, lasted a dozen years as a 8ppg roleplayer off the bench bouncing around the league, I don't think the international committee would take him just based on him being a top Euro player for a handful of years before he crossed over. Could be wrong though.

[Quotatious]

What do you think about T-Mac, guys? Two time scoring champion, two time All-NBA 1st team, two time All-NBA 2nd team, two time All-NBA 3rd team member, seven time All-Star, finished in the top 10 MVP voting six times, including 4th twice, 13 points in 35 seconds...Lack of playoff success and longevity is an issue, but I think that his legacy is good enough for the HOF.

[Witzig-Okashi]

What do you think about T-Mac, guys? Two time scoring champion, two time All-NBA 1st team, two time All-NBA 2nd team, two time All-NBA 3rd team member, seven time All-Star, finished in the top 10 MVP voting six times, including 4th twice, 13 points in 35 seconds...Lack of playoff success and longevity is an issue, but I think that his legacy is good enough for the HOF.

If Vince is a future HOF, then I think McGrady should be too. His peak is definitely better, and I think his seasons post 03 (and even 01-02) become underrated because he wasn't as efficient, and he can get compared to guys like Penny and Grant Hill as stars who have had their careers cut short by injuries. McGrady is more like Amare in that instance.

McGrady's playoff performances were generally excellent, he just had some unfortunate circumstances for a good bit of them (03 First Round). Can't give much of an excuse for the 05 first round vs. the Mavs, especially considering how uncharacteristically awful Dirk was in that series (I believe McGrady was guarding him for good stretches of that series too, if my memory serves me right). People use to joke about his AS appearance having the Yao effect, but I don't think that many were unjustified. There was a period of time his playoff numbers were 28, 7 and 6.

The 07 series vs the Jazz warrants another look, though. McGrady had fantastic numbers at first glance, but wasn't efficient at all. I need to watch that series again...

[trex_8063]

I'll preface by saying that I really don't have a good grasp on what is considered for HOF candidacy, or why persons are selected.

That being said, I cannot imagine that Billups and Carter, at the very least, will not get in at some point. Guys like Big Ben and Chris Webber I think probably have a fair to decent chance, too. Not that it's outside the realm of possibility for the others, but I just can't say. Personally, I'm beginning to think a lot of Shawn Marion's career; I can only hope that the Hall one day will see a lot in him, too.

[Doctor MJ]

These guys are one point in their career, on the fringe of stardom, or had prolonged allstar stretch. Which of them have HOF chance?

- Amare Stoudamire
- Joe Johnson
- Antawn Jamison
- Vince Carter
- Deron Williams
- Gilbert Arenas
- Andrei Kirilenko
- Shawn Marion
- Tyson Chandler
- Ben Wallace
- Chauncey Billups
- Chris Webber

Ben Wallace - have to expect him to be in. It's through him the story of Detroit's championship gets told, and he has 4 DPOYs.

Vince Carter - seems likely. He's that classic "shouldn't really be in the Hall, but he's a big enough name, and he played for long enough"

Chauncey Billups - quite possibly. I think he's hurt by the fact that Ben will be the more important Piston to go in, and there will be reluctance to put both in. He's helping, bizarrely, by that meaningless Finals MVP (Billups only became the best player on the Pistons after the title.)

Chris Webber - could actually be the most likely of these 4 to get in because of his star power before Sacramento (Fab Five, etc.)

Hard for me to see any of the rest getting in.

Amare Stoudemire in another universe would have easily made it, but I thought at the time that his candidacy would be based on how his move to New York ended up being seen, and mostly it's as a millstone around the Knicks' collective neck.

Joe Johnson - were he to get in, this would actually make me angry. He kept getting those all-star nods in Atlanta for meaningless work. The team never missed him when he was out, and never missed him after left. Their success right now isn't about jettisoning Johnson, but certainly you could never have a team be anywhere near as good as the Hawks are now with Johnson playing the role he played in Atlanta. (Big fan of his play in Phoenix. That was the role he should have played his whole career if his goal was to help teams.)

Deron Williams - I really thought he'd be a lock, but he fell off a cliff on the east coast.

Gilbert Arenas - Nah. Can't even imagine he gets talked about.

Andrei Kirilenko - I don't think so. If he does get in it will be based on some international perspective - but I don't think he's quite prominent on that front to put him over the hump.

Shawn Marion - Y'know, he does have something of a chance. He had none before the Mavs title, so it's really the narrative lens with him. But it's a narrative based on him being the perfect guy to take on a secondary star role on a contender, and the problem with that really is that he destroyed his career on that front in Phoenix, and then sucked in different contexts before Dallas happened, and he really wasn't a star in Dallas the way you could argue for...

Tyson Chandler - As of right now, it's a clear no. He's only ever made all-star once, and if Dallas didn't win that title he'd be a complete footnote. However, he's starting to get the reputation as a guy who transforms teams. If something else big happens, that could make people overlook a lot.

Of course as I say that, "something big" could theoretically happen to any player not yet retired, it's just it seems more plausible for Chandler.

[Ballerhogger]

Billups has F MVP don't see how doesn't get in

I rather doubt a Finals MVP has ever gotten anybody into the HOF. Its the fact Finals MVPs are normally won by no brainer HOFs. Jordan, or Magic or Duncan or whomever.

Can you name F MVP who's not in Hall of Fame?

[Ballerhogger]

Chandler had DMVP, A ring and 1st all defense with all star appearance . I think it take him a lot time to get in but I think he eventually would get in

[Doctor MJ]

AK47 is an easy HOFer.
You guys realize that the hall is basketball, not just the NBA.

What all did he do internationally?

I realize he won the Euroleague MVP, which was cool, but given that it came sandwiched between years of meh in the majors (aka the NBA), it's hard to imagine that being the basis for that much.

Let me also state by contrast: Manu Ginobili. Ginobili was a Euro star AND led a team to a Gold Medal in the Olympics. If he had stayed in Europe and continued to do that, I think that absolutely would have made him a lock for the Hall. (He is a lock for the Hall now of course, but his NBA career is so noteworthy it's unclear whether he even needs the foreign stuff to help his case.)

Also to be clear: I'm actually a big fan of AK. I think he had the talent to make the Hall based on the NBA alone, but things went sideways at a certain point.

[Ballerhogger]

Chandler had DMVP, A ring and 1st all defense with all star appearance . I think it take him a lot time to get in but I think he eventually would get in

[Ballerhogger]

Chandler also has a USA gold medal as well

[Ballerhogger]

T -mac probably won't get in. Had he won gold medal and gotten past the 1st round in his prime then he would be in

[Doctor MJ]

Can you name F MVP who's not in Hall of Fame?

Cedric Maxwell and Jo Jo White.

Everyone knows that being the MVP of one series isn't necessarily a big deal, and had Billups not improved after his Finals MVP, no one would take hims seriously as an MVP candidate.

I don't think there's any doubt though that retroactively people will value the Finals MVP incorrectly as a product of his best play.

[Quotatious]

McGrady's playoff performances were generally excellent, he just had some unfortunate circumstances for a good bit of them (03 First Round).

I agree that he was generally a pretty good playoff performer, but he never made it past the first round, and that's how the HOF committee will probably look at it - it'll unfortunately be seen as a blemish on his resume, that lack of team success (which I think is stupid to criticize an individual player for, but a lot of people do it...)

Can't give much of an excuse for the 05 first round vs. the Mavs, especially considering how uncharacteristically awful Dirk was in that series (I believe McGrady was guarding him for good stretches of that series too, if my memory serves me right). People use to joke about his AS appearance having the Yao effect, but I don't think that many were unjustified. There was a period of time his playoff numbers were 28, 7 and 6.

McGrady was actually fantastic in that series against Dallas (and Yao was really good, too). The thing is, the Rockets' role players had perhaps the biggest meltdown in NBA playoff history in game 7 of that series. T-Mac and Yao were the only guys who came to play in that game. The only situation comparable to that is Orlando's supporting cast in game 1 of the 1996 ECF - Penny and Shaq both had GREAT games, but the rest of their team didn't come to play.

McGrady would be the last person I would blame for that loss. He was BY FAR the best player in that series (and yes, he guarded Dirk quite a bit, and actually did a really good job - putting a 6'8'' wing player on younger Dirk was a pretty good strategy - it also worked for the GSW, who put Stephen Jackson on him in the '07 first round).

I'm still pretty shocked how Dallas managed to win that series, considering how awful Dirk was - he was still drawing a ton of defensive attention, but his shot was horribly off target - 35% FG, less than 29% 3P, and less than 48% TS for the series (a little over 21 PPG). Well, he was still valuable as someone who attracted defensive attention, and Terry destroyed Houston from long range, but it's definitely one of Nowitzki's worst playoff series, right there with the '07 GSW series.

The 07 series vs the Jazz warrants another look, though. McGrady had fantastic numbers at first glance, but wasn't efficient at all. I need to watch that series again...

He was decent in that series, despite his poor scoring efficiency (mainly because he was a great creator off the dribble - players like that are always valuable).Decent, but nothing more than that. Well, for what it's worth, he had a really good game 7 - 29/5/13 with just 2 turnovers, on 12/25 shooting.

[Doctor MJ]

Chandler also has a USA gold medal as well

No one will ever take USA gold medals seriously in context like this, but the fact that he was considered a valuable member of that team might have some slight resonance if the rest of his candidacy really gets him in the ballpark.

I'll reiterate:

Before '10-11, it wasn't even clear cut that Chandler wasn't a bust.

So really, in terms of historically noteworthy stuff, we're only talking about Chandler's 5th season of it right now, and it's not like at any time in those 5 seasons he was seen as a superstar. People are going to need more than that.

But as I said, it's possible they'll get it. Dallas currently has a superior SRS to the year they won the title, and Chandler left & comeback in that time - during which he helped make New York ever so briefly a basketball city.

If, somehow, the Mavs won the title again this year with Chandler being seen as important as anyone other than Nowitzki, that may well make him Hall of Fame bound.

[Winsome Gerbil]

Chandler also has a USA gold medal as well

No one will ever take USA gold medals seriously in context like this, but the fact that he was considered a valuable member of that team might have some slight resonance if the rest of his candidacy really gets him in the ballpark.

I'll reiterate:

Before '10-11, it wasn't even clear cut that Chandler wasn't a bust.

So really, in terms of historically noteworthy stuff, we're only talking about Chandler's 5th season of it right now, and it's not like at any time in those 5 seasons he was seen as a superstar. People are going to need more than that.

But as I said, it's possible they'll get it. Dallas currently has a superior SRS to the year they won the title, and Chandler left & comeback in that time - during which he helped make New York ever so briefly a basketball city.

If, somehow, the Mavs won the title again this year with Chandler being seen as important as anyone other than Nowitzki, that may well make him Hall of Fame bound.

That's not how it works.

He has less than zero chance. This is a complete realgm fantasy. Deke's not in. Ben won't get in unless Deke does. Jack Sikma is not in. Bill Laimbeer is not in. Sean Kemp won't make it. Sheed won't make it. A lot of really good players much more decorated than Tyson Chandler will not make it. I've always liked Chandler, but he's nothing historically. Just a pretty good center in a bad center era.

[Colbinii]

I think that's a key point.

I've mentioned this before, but I think there is often confusion about how the "international player" thing works in the HOF. Its never really been used as a backdoor for NBA guys who wouldn't make it normally, but hey, look, he also played for his NT. The international players taken are normally guys who's PRIMARY work/reputation was made overseas. If you are mostly famous for being an NBA guy, you seem to be judged in or out purely as an NBA guy. Dirk is an NBA guy. Parker is an NBA guy. Ak47. Manu. Vlade was. Peja. The Gasol brothers might be the first time we see that blurred, but we'll have to see. There are different committees deciding who gets in or out, and the NBA committee only looks at NBA stuff, and the international committee I think only looks at international stuff. I don't think there's any committee doing what we do and lumping it all together into a body of work.

Manu isn't just an NBA guy. I recommend you look up what he did outside of the NBA before you make floorless claims like this.

You aren't judged purely by the NBA when you are AK47; a 2-time euro-league MVP, a Euroscar Player of the year while winning the award over Dirk Nowitzki, Manu, Parker, and others in 2012. He has done much more outside the NBA than he did in his very impactful, and often underrated NBA career.

Let us not forget he led Russia to a Bronze medal in the 2012 Olympic games as well.

It is foolish not to lump it all together, and a terrible way to judge a player. I also feel like you are incredibly wrong in that is how their body of work is graded.

[Colbinii]

AK47 is an easy HOFer.
You guys realize that the hall is basketball, not just the NBA.

What all did he do internationally?

I realize he won the Euroleague MVP, which was cool, but given that it came sandwiched between years of meh in the majors (aka the NBA), it's hard to imagine that being the basis for that much.

Let me also state by contrast: Manu Ginobili. Ginobili was a Euro star AND led a team to a Gold Medal in the Olympics. If he had stayed in Europe and continued to do that, I think that absolutely would have made him a lock for the Hall. (He is a lock for the Hall now of course, but his NBA career is so noteworthy it's unclear whether he even needs the foreign stuff to help his case.)

Also to be clear: I'm actually a big fan of AK. I think he had the talent to make the Hall based on the NBA alone, but things went sideways at a certain point.

AK won Euroscar in 2012, the best European basketball player IN THE WORLD. This award includes players who played in the NBA, like Dirk, Manu, Parker, ect. He was a 2 time Euroleague MVP, were both 2012 and 2007 "meh" in the NBA in your eyes?

AK47 also led a team to a bronze medal in 2012, perhaps not as impressive as what Manu did, but given AK47's supporting cast, I have it up high on my personal list.

[Witzig-Okashi]

McGrady was actually fantastic in that series against Dallas (and Yao was really good, too). The thing is, the Rockets' role players had perhaps the biggest meltdown in NBA playoff history in game 7 of that series. T-Mac and Yao were the only guys who came to play in that game. The only situation comparable to that is Orlando's supporting cast in game 1 of the 1996 ECF - Penny and Shaq both had GREAT games, but the rest of their team didn't come to play.

McGrady would be the last person I would blame for that loss. He was BY FAR the best player in that series (and yes, he guarded Dirk quite a bit, and actually did a really good job - putting a 6'8'' wing player on younger Dirk was a pretty good strategy - it also worked for the GSW, who put Stephen Jackson on him in the '07 first round).

I'm still pretty shocked how Dallas managed to win that series, considering how awful Dirk was - he was still drawing a ton of defensive attention, but his shot was horribly off target - 35% FG, less than 29% 3P, and less than 48% TS for the series (a little over 21 PPG). Well, he was still valuable as someone who attracted defensive attention, and Terry destroyed Houston from long range, but it's definitely one of Nowitzki's worst playoff series, right there with the '07 GSW series.

The 07 series vs the Jazz warrants another look, though. McGrady had fantastic numbers at first glance, but wasn't efficient at all. I need to watch that series again...

He was decent in that series, despite his poor scoring efficiency (mainly because he was a great creator off the dribble - players like that are always valuable).Decent, but nothing more than that. Well, for what it's worth, he had a really good game 7 - 29/5/13 with just 2 turnovers, on 12/25 shooting.

Yeah, you're right. Maybe I got his series in 05 mixed up with the one in 07. Me and my faulty memory...

Bowen, McGrady, Jackson, Marion, etc...That seem to be the strategy to guard Dirk, though it didn't work too well for Marion (and Bowen too, for certain stretches) in 2006

I would like to look at game 7 of that first round series just to get an idea of what went wrong, but I didn't finish the game the first time I watched it, so I might renege...