E-Balla wrote:Ok so I had a little fun with the title.
Yup, I see what you did there.
So I'll start off saying what others have said: The original Russell-Davis comparison (that I did) was based on them being similar types of players, and Wallace-Noel just have entirely different bodies. That doesn't make the comparison invalid though entirely because obviously you're referring to the defensive focus. And Noel certainly seems like a big time talent.
I think I'll use the thread to reflect on Davis and Noel, as well as someone new.
Davis is the guy I was "right" about. I don't watch a lot of college ball, and I don't claim to be a great scout, but I was all over the Davis bandwagon when I saw what he could do in college, and wrote many posts advocating for him to people who were skeptical.
But while it's nice people let me take the victory lap, there's the matter that Davis' success in the pros doesn't really look that much like what I envisioned. While I told people he may well have some serious offensive upside, he's easily surpassed what I imagined even in my most optimistic moments. Meanwhile, while there's no denying he's a strong defensive player, the jaw dropping impact I was hoping for hasn't occurred.
There were some, and I think E-Balla was one of them, who simply liked Noel's defense better than Davis', but that's not really the issue here. If it were simply that Noel had been a beast beyond all imagination on defense, I'd continue my Davis victory lap and just note I underestimated Noel. Instead the real issue is that Davis just lags behind a bit compared to my hopes, and Noel doesn't really change that in either direction. So what gives?
I think the issue is 2-fold:
1) I think that we aren't seeing what Davis is truly capable of on defense yet. I think his energy - and his learning focus - has been so spread on the offensive side of the ball, that he's not learning to anchor defense as fast as Noel. I also think that there are just some systematic problems with the Pelican defense and Monty Williams, and short of someone really knowledgeable convincing me otherwise, I would fire Williams this year after 5 long years in that role. They may be blaming him for something he shouldn't be blamed for, but realistically coaches rarely last 5 years in this league without some huge success, and when that's combined with a lack of growth precisely in the area where we expected the growth, I think he has to go.
2) I'm beginning to think that my advocacy based on him actually having the ideal body for NBA defense, based on the Russell look, and based on the idea that it hasn't really changed that much, was naive. And the main guy making me think that is not Davis, nor Noel, but Gobert.
Thing is, the idea of Russell having the ideal body was based on the assumption that he was long enough, that given his horizontal quickness, he was basically maxing out what you could expect to do in terms of pure shot blocking threat. Russell's impact went well beyond that of course but that was because of his brain. So my argument was that Russell was largely optimal on all major fronts, and that Davis was optimal physically (maybe with an ever so slight edge on Russell) and his brain was at the very least quite impressive.
But then you watch Gobert, and it's just clear that he benefits immensely from that extra length. Take nothing away from what was said about the importance of quickness or brainpower, shockingly all things being equal, being even longer does matter.
Maybe Davis will end up a better defensive player than Gobert - maybe Noel will end up better than both with his tendency toward steals adding into his overall threat - but the way I was presenting the optimal NBA body smacks of people talking about true big men before George Mikan arrived: I essentially argued you just wouldn't see humans much longer than Russell & Davis who were still quick & coordinated. And obviously the reality is, there's no fundamental ceiling. It's very difficult to be quick & coordinated at extreme size, but there's no proof it can't happen.