ESPN: Top 5 MVP Snubs and Reaches

[colts18]

Using a few advanced stats, ESPN tried to come up with their biggest MVP snubs and reaches in history.

Biggest reaches:
1. 05 Nash
2. 01 Iverson
3. 06 Nash
4. 78 Walton
5. 98 MJ

Biggest snubs:
1. 05 KG
2. 79 Kareen
3. 11 LeBron
4. 90 MJ
5. 94 Robinson

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/ ... ba-mvp-nba

Do you agree with their list?

[Doctor MJ]

Nah. I have issues on a number of levels:

1. Obviously I'm a big Nash guy. While on the face of it I wouldn't necessarily mind him being lumped in with the "reaches" here, as it seems a pretty benign term, him being #1 on the list is absurd. Also '05 being more of a reach that '06 is silly. '05 was definitely the more accomplished year.

2. Walton a reach? Nah. Spoken like someone who hasn't really thought it through. It's telling that no one from 78 makes the Top 5 snub list. There's a reason for that: Competition was very weak that year which is why they gave it to the guy who was just obviously giving the most impact to his team despite his missed time. There's also the matter after the title the previous year it was pretty clear that Walton had a really strong case for the '77 MVP too.

3. Jordan being the 4th guy in all of history on the reach list ahead of guys like West Unseld, Willis Reed, and Dave Cowens? No, I don't think so.

4. Love KG, but calling him the MVP in 05 is basically just looking to give the award based on stats. The chemistry just wasn't good on the Wolves that year and they underachieved. I don't think anyone should "blame" Garnett for that, but nor should he have won the MVP.

5. LeBron 11 snubbed? Well first off, it's weird Rose didn't make the reach list. He should probably be there. But people are in a mode where they feel like the grown up in the room when they saw "LeBron's always the MVP". No, just because the Cavs fell apart when LeBron left does not mean he should win the award. He needs to win it based on what he's doing currently for his team, and the reality was back then that there was every reason to think the Heat could do pretty well without LeBron, and with him they were still very flawed. Again, not about "blame", but if you're the single most valuable player in the league it's basically a given that you're synergizing well with your team.

Incidentally, my pick in 11 was Dwight Howard, who I didn't feel great about either. My issues with the LeBron mention here isn't that I think someone else should definitely have the award, so much as it is that people bringing it up seem to be willfully ignoring that even players like LeBron have ups and downs in their impact.

[etopn23]

IMO, Dirk was the biggest snub in recent history - '11. His team couldn't win without him. They were the best team in basketball when he was healthy (51-17 with him on the floor), and he was playing the best basketball of his career.

His playoffs was just an extension of his regular season. A lot of people don't realize that.

[ardee]

I don't like most of these.

My top 5 reaches:

1. '69 Unseld
2. '01 Iverson
3. '99 Malone
4. '11 Rose
5. '73 Cowens

Top 5 snubs:

1. '97 Jordan
2. '90 Jordan
3. '06 Kobe
4. '70 West
5. '81 Kareem/Bird (I don't see Dr J being that amazing that year)

[Doctor MJ]

I don't like most of these.

My top 5 reaches:

1. '69 Unseld
2. '01 Iverson
3. '99 Malone
4. '11 Rose
5. '73 Cowens

Top 5 snubs:

1. '97 Jordan
2. '90 Jordan
3. '06 Kobe
4. '70 West
5. '81 Kareem/Bird (I don't see Dr J being that amazing that year)

Definitely a lot better than theirs.

[NinjaSheppard]

Their list used Pelton's WARP stat, BPM and Winshares and basically compared the rankings of the guys.

Here is the Nash excerpt

1. 2004-05, Steve Nash, Suns
WS: 15th | BPM: 19th | WARP 12th | Composite Rank: 15.3th

We can say now that Steve Nash and coach Mike D'Antoni revolutionized the game. But it doesn't mean that Nash should have won MVP that season. Nash didn't rank top 10 in any all-in-one metric, barely played much defense and he averaged just 15.5 points per game -- the lowest of any MVP in the modern era.

Nash narrowly edged Shaquille O'Neal in the vote (1,066 votes to Shaq's 1,032), but the award probably should have gone to either LeBron James, Dirk Nowitzki or Kevin Garnett (more on KG's case later) -- all of whom vastly outperformed Nash that season. Nash's candidacy was pumped up by his shooting and playmaking, but mostly because of the Phoenix Suns' top record and beautiful aesthetics that changed the sport. Like Derrick Rose's 2011 campaign, Nash's first MVP was driven by a great story rather than a serious valuation. This encapsulated the superficial "best player on the best team" MVP criteria.

[SlowPaced]

Reaches

05 Nash: 06 was an actual reach by Nash, he fully deserved the award in 05. Might not show up on stats, but they shook the league and Nash was the leader.
01 Iverson: Definite reach. Shaq was robbed.
06 Nash: Should've gone to LeBron or Dirk.
78 Walton: Disagree. Deserved MVP.
98 Jordan: Agreed. Should've gone to Malone. However, it's worth noting that '97 award is the exact opposite.

Snubs

05 Garnett: Nah. Nash deserved it. If Nash wasn't gonna get it, it would've been Shaq.
79 Kareem: That wasn't even a particularly good year for Kareem. Lakers were 5th, his points and rebounds saw a career low. Didn't even make the All-NBA First Team.
11 LeBron: Nope. But I do agree that there was a snub in 11. It was Dwight Howard.
90 Jordan: Absolutely.
94 Robinson: Great season but it coincided with Hakeem's prime. So no.

[ThaRegul8r]

I'd have to read the rationale, but on the subject of snubs, why is '79 listed for Kareem over other years? I'm looking at my file on Kareem and I'm wondering why '79 Kareem is the second-biggest snub in NBA history in their view.

[ardee]

I don't like most of these.

My top 5 reaches:

1. '69 Unseld
2. '01 Iverson
3. '99 Malone
4. '11 Rose
5. '73 Cowens

Top 5 snubs:

1. '97 Jordan
2. '90 Jordan
3. '06 Kobe
4. '70 West
5. '81 Kareem/Bird (I don't see Dr J being that amazing that year)

Definitely a lot better than theirs.

My main thought process was that A being a reach over B does not mean B was a snub, nor vice verca. I think '90 Jordan was a snub, but '90 Magic was still awesome.

[CaliBullsFan]

Biggest snubs

05 Shaq
06 Kobe
76 Barry
81 Moses
97 Jordan

[Texas Chuck]

I don't see how anyone can list Kobe(or anyone else) for biggest snub in 2006. There were frankly just so many great candidates that year. I mean what about Wade? Dirk?

[Texas Chuck]

IMO, Dirk was the biggest snub in recent history - '11. His team couldn't win without him. They were the best team in basketball when he was healthy (51-17 with him on the floor), and he was playing the best basketball of his career.

His playoffs was just an extension of his regular season. A lot of people don't realize that.

I agree he was more worthy than Rose. I don't have a problem with Howard or Lebron ahead of Dirk. Of course Lebron was never going to win that award if they could find someone else to give it to.

I think 2 things hurt Dirk--the team went on a slide when he went out right as Tuff Juice was lost for the year and not enough guys in the media took the time to connect the dots back to Dirk. But also, the Mavs run of playoff futility after 06 had them, and thus Dirk, as mostly an afterthought in people's minds. Dirk was a brilliant basketball player in 08-10, but nobody really knew it because of how disappointing the team was in the playoffs.

Snub? Maybe. Top 5 of all-time? I don't think so. I think the 05 snub was a bigger one. Everyone focused on what Nash did in Phoenix without paying enough attention to what Dirk did without Nash.

[Quotatious]

I don't see how anyone can list Kobe(or anyone else) for biggest snub in 2006. There were frankly just so many great candidates that year. I mean what about Wade? Dirk?

Yeah, exactly. Wade and Dirk are my top 2 for 2006.

Also, if someone wants to argue that Kobe was snubbed in '06, they should do the same with KG in '05.

[Owly]

I'd have to read the rationale, but on the subject of snubs, why is '79 listed for Kareem over other years? I'm looking at my file on Kareem and I'm wondering why '79 Kareem is the second-biggest snub in NBA history in their view.

In terms of why '79 over other years I believe the answers is just, that's how far they're going back.

The last years cited in the lists shown here are '78 (Walton reach) and '79 (Jabbar snub). As in the sample shown above, this was based on a combination of BPM, WARP and WS. Now based on previous work (his career WARP rankings/"Hall of Fame" in his '10-'11 Pro Basketball Prospectus) Pelton said that WARP went back to the advent of the three point line so you'd be starting with the '80 campaign.

Now it seems he (or someone on his/ESPN's behalf) has gone back before that but how far is unclear, so there's a fair chance that's causing the cutoff. If not then BPM starts from the '74 season so the (otoh) most obvious case for Kareem ('73 over Cowens) isn't available.


Anyhow as to all "why do they think this" comments, "they" don't. It isn't thoughts it's data (who averages out worst on the rankings of PER, BPM/VORP -- cited as BPM in the reach list, then the cumulative, factoring in minutes, VORP in the snub list, incidentally Haberstroh states that had VORP been used in the reach list, Nash '06 would have taken 2nd place and given Nash both the top 2 places -- and WARP. It's content, and as a debate starter, it's fine but look at it and what the criteria are before you get mad (and if you want to get mad at them calling it MVP - rather than best player, that's fine but as I say, what they're doing is there in the article). For what it's worth I prefer the best (or most productive?) player discussion to MVP talk, because MVP stuff ends up being about narrative, team performance (typically must be among league elite and/or excede media expectations) and contextual value (e.g. is your backup good at taking on your role etc) and things that are basically out of a player's control. For instance, I'm not as pro-Garnett as some but I see no reason to punish him for teammates injuries, apathy/contract negoition failures and the franchise's lousy GMing leading to below expected team performance in '05. Whatever your (or my) opinions on whether he was the best player, or the MVP, you have to be clear what you are talking about (particularly as people may use MVP interchangably with best player, ofttimes because that's what they think it should be - and yes ESPN is guilty of this, because they had an idea that they needed to hook specifically to MVP to create content for this time of year) because it's too easy and pointless to have an internet shouting match whilst speaking at cross purposes.

[JordansBulls]

Using a few advanced stats, ESPN tried to come up with their biggest MVP snubs and reaches in history.

Biggest reaches:
1. 05 Nash
2. 01 Iverson
3. 06 Nash
4. 78 Walton
5. 98 MJ

Biggest snubs:
1. 05 KG
2. 79 Kareen
3. 11 LeBron
4. 90 MJ
5. 94 Robinson

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/ ... ba-mvp-nba

Do you agree with their list?

Bad list. 2005 KG didn't even make the playoffs how is that the biggest snub?

[SHAQ32]

'08 Kobe was a bigger reach than '11 Rose

Edit: '99 Malone was a reach?

[magicmerl]

Their list seems ok.

I don't understand why the biggest reaches and the biggest snubs aren't occurring in the same year though. SUrely they are the same thing?

[Jedi32]

'08 Kobe was a bigger reach than '11 Rose

Edit: '99 Malone was a reach?

agenda much

[MrKnox]

'05 KG was the biggest snub ever? Wilt didn't win MVP the year he averaged 50 PPG. Oscar didn't win MVP the year he averaged a triple double. Bird didn't win '88. MJ didn't win in '89, '90, '93, '97. Does he really believe KG was the biggest snub ever? Wow. How is that idiot employed?

[PaulieWal]

How is that idiot employed?

Maybe you don't agree with him on this but Haberstroh is one of the smarter NBA writers around. Have you even read his other work? I really doubt it for some reason.