AD ceiling on the GOAT list

[makaveli_99]

No his jumper is not approaching peak Dirk. What kind of exaggeration. Dirk is out there shooting 1 leg spin jumpers at an effiecient rate.

Davis shot 43.5% from mid-range last season, Dirk shot between 45 and 50% for most of his prime, and AD had clearly more assisted field goals, so Nowitzki still gets a clear edge, but I don't see anything wrong about Spaceman's statement, because he said that Davis is "approaching" Dirk, he didn't say Davis is already as good as Dirk. That's an obvious difference. I don't see why AD couldn't get to Dirk's level in this regard, one day. He's already not that far behind.

Giving Dirk some kind of "bonus points" for making very tough shots isn't a convincing argument, because you don't get extra points for making tougher shots. Kobe fans also love to use that argument, but I actually think it's better not to take tough shots, at all, and work to get the easiest possible shot (I know it's still a valuable skill because it's not always possible to get a clean look at the basket, but as a general rule, I'd take a guy who looks for easier shots instead of trying to showcase his ability to make crazy difficult shots).

Oh, and Davis also has one more thing in common with Nowitzki - both guys are absolutely fantastic in terms of protecting the ball. Brow's 6.3% TOV is better than Dirk's career-best rating.

He's also already a clearly better finisher than Dirk ever was (Davis shot 73.4% at rim last season, Nowitzki never shot 70%).

His offensive potential is scary.

the point is you have to look behind the numbers... it doesn't matter what they show, AD will or never be as good a shooter as dirk. The numbers might be close, but only by watching can you tell. AD is better at others things, which allow him to be left a little more open on his shots, whereas with Dirk, he's not as athletic, and relies on creating space for the jump shot, and hence ends up taking tougher jump shots. Its not rewarding dirk for taking tougher shots, but by watching you can clearly realize they are not on the same level in this regard.

we can beat the analytics to death, but no person on this forum, would take AD over Dirk, if they had a contest of taking wide open jumpers every day and see who shot the best percentage out of 50 shots. Not a single person would, and if you can find that person, i will salute you.

Not to take anything away from AD, i think he can even surpass Dirk's offensive ceiling, not because he will be a better shooter, but because he may end up being more dangerous in a bunch of other areas, and the defence will have to give in on something.

So again, the numbers might say they are close in mid range jumpers, but they are not in reality.

[mischievous]

Aldridge only had those 2 monster games against Houston because fricken Terrance Jones was guarding him. He never shown he could replicate that against anyone else in the playoffs.

[Purch]

Aldridge only had those 2 monster games against Houston because fricken Terrance Jones was guarding him. He never shown he could replicate that against anyone else in the playoffs.

Doesn't matters. He's had numerous 30+ games throughout the course of his career shootings those same kind of shots.

[Texas Chuck]

Giving Dirk some kind of "bonus points" for making very tough shots isn't a convincing argument, because you don't get extra points for making tougher shots. Kobe fans also love to use that argument, but I actually think it's better not to take tough shots, at all, and work to get the easiest possible shot (I know it's still a valuable skill because it's not always possible to get a clean look at the basket, but as a general rule, I'd take a guy who looks for easier shots instead of trying to showcase his ability to make crazy difficult shots).

I'm not sure where you are going here? I'd say Dirk's ability to generate shots he makes at a reasonable rate still clearly exceeds AD, no? And I've never really heard any reports on Dirk looking for tough shots. The Mavs have long been about ball movement and the extra pass and Dirk has been no different. Yeah he forced shots on occasion as any number 1 option will, but I don't think ever to a point where it was a concern.

I guess I'm confused by the possible implication that Davis is doing a better job both looking for and creating easier shots than Dirk?

I personally have no issue with the idea that AD's potential as an offensive player could exceed Dirk's. I mean I'm still not as high on the kid as most here, but I'm not sticking my hand in the sand and ignoring the very possible reality that this kid could be the best player in teh league at both ends someday in the next couple years. He has a ton of offensive talent. But I think its a touch premature to compare his offense to Dirk just like he has the potential to be an even better defender than KG with his additional abilities as a rim protector, but no one would be suggesting he's even approached KG on that level yet. (And yes I realize he is much closer to Dirk offensively right now than he is KG defensively.)

[MyUniBroDavis]

No his jumper is not approaching peak Dirk. What kind of exaggeration. Dirk is out there shooting 1 leg spin jumpers at an effiecient rate.

Davis shot 43.5% from mid-range last season, Dirk shot between 45 and 50% for most of his prime, and AD had clearly more assisted field goals, so Nowitzki still gets a clear edge, but I don't see anything wrong about Spaceman's statement, because he said that Davis is "approaching" Dirk, he didn't say Davis is already as good as Dirk. That's an obvious difference. I don't see why AD couldn't get to Dirk's level in this regard, one day. He's already not that far behind.

Giving Dirk some kind of "bonus points" for making very tough shots isn't a convincing argument, because you don't get extra points for making tougher shots. Kobe fans also love to use that argument, but I actually think it's better not to take tough shots, at all, and work to get the easiest possible shot (I know it's still a valuable skill because it's not always possible to get a clean look at the basket, but as a general rule, I'd take a guy who looks for easier shots instead of trying to showcase his ability to make crazy difficult shots).

Oh, and Davis also has one more thing in common with Nowitzki - both guys are absolutely fantastic in terms of protecting the ball. Brow's 6.3% TOV is better than Dirk's career-best rating.

He's also already a clearly better finisher than Dirk ever was (Davis shot 73.4% at rim last season, Nowitzki never shot 70%).

His offensive potential is scary.

I agree and disagree with some of the points you make

From seeing how davis shoots, I personally doubt he will ever be as good of a shooter as dirk. and this isnt because he is assisted more imo. From what i've seen, Davis's playstyle is to basically act quickly, whether he is open or not. he will take jumpers in front of a defenders face, but it will still count as an assist because he did it so quickly after recieving the ball.


But in terms of jump shots itself, I do believe that taking contested jumpers is an important skill, that is really one of the few variables that cant truly be measured with statistics, yet. Its like clutch shooting, or hustle stats (that may be tracked in the 2016-2017 season)
for example, many people get mad at certain players, for converting a low percentage of shots, but taking so many of them. However, considering the average percentage of clutch shots made is 25%, according to sports science, and that includes people who shoot at above 30s and 40s percent wise, making 100 shots at 37% in 150 clutch situations is really better than making 50 at 42% in 150 clutch situations, though it might seem much worse (those numbers do not reflect anything in real life. if they do, its a ridiculous coincidence).
Though its not really that, but the fear that you put into opponents, who know you can make those jumpers. while media bias is just that, bias, it is actually a "skill" in itself, as a player will be almost "frightened" by certain players, and sag off against other players.
However, Davis is a really good jump shooter.

but thats the only point I really disagree on.

Potential wise
in terms of finishing at the rim, I expect him to get MUCH better at that regard. he specifically said that he would "absorb contact more." Davis was really good at finishing under contact, but being 10 pounds less meant he shied away from contact alot, which was a primary reason why he missed some of his shots.

turnover rate wise, whats really impressive is when his per 100 numbers went from 2.2 assists per game to 5.5 (when he took a different role post march), his turnovers per 100 actually decreased from 2 a game to 1.9 a game, and his turnover rate went to 6.3%

not only that, but post of his turnovers came from double teams (when facing a double team, he turned the ball over exacctly 25% of the time according to draft express)
he said he has worked on that, so his turnovers a game should actually decrease. the way davis plays means that he rarely gets doubled, since he attacks to quickly for the help defense to really react.

[Winsome Gerbil]

The boldest is simply false, though. They're not a small part of his game, but they're not the most important part either. Davis right now is primarily a high volume PNR finisher. Compare him to Amar'e Stoudemire and he comes out looking very favorable- slight dip and volume and very comparable efficiency. Stylistically they share a lot in common, the difference being Davis is finishing at "STAT+Nash" levels of efficiency without a Nash. Seriously, go on NBA.com and look at his numbers. It's freaking astounding.

Also correct me if I'm wrong but by using the term "spot up" I'm assuming you see him as a guy who gets spoon fed jumpers- which is absurd on its face that teams would just let that dangerous a player get open looks consistently. Davis is creating those looks by being so damn good off the ball. Nobody's leaving him open.

Look I can see the Griffin thing since he's such a damn good passer, but everything about Cousins' scoring game is middling and strategically we're past the point where the ability to create volume offense out of the post should be lauded. Davis does the things that we know make offenses good- and he does them better than anyone else.

Also, facing up still counts as "shot creating".

Cousins is actually by quite a bit the BEST goto guy of that group of players.

A fairly straightforward way to look at that kind of ability is jsut to look at assisted basket percentage. in other words how much help is each guy getting to score his points. The great goto scorers, the great 1 on 1 scorers, typically have lower percentages. Roleplayers and guys who are mostly finishers typically have very high percentages.

52.0% of Cousins baskets last year were assisted (one of the lowest numbers amongst all big men)

67.2 of Blake's baskets were assisted.

71.5% of Anthony Davis's baskets were assisted (putting him in the Top 20% of all NBA players last year in assisted hoops)


It is the big question I continue to have about him. When a game slows down, and you need a hoop, can you just throw it to A.D. and say you're great, go get us a great player hoop? Right now I don't think so. Other players he is often compared to, Admiral, KG etc. never did quite become that guy. Is A.D. going to? Or is he just going to score the easy ones efficiently, and have a guy with more 1 on 1 skill like Evans do the creating when things get tight? For comparison, Tyson Chander was at 72.7% assisted last year.

Davis had no trouble scoring himself in the playoffs when the game slowed down.

I don't really see how who is assisted the least is proof of anything. Kevin Durant was highly assisted, and no one is going to deny that he is a great go to guy. There is circumstance that affects that statistic. For instance, how can anyone say Blake Griffin needs help creating, when the guy can not only create his own shot but create for others, he can play point forward. Naturally, a large number of his buckets are assisted because he plays with a superstar point guard, not really hard to figure that one out.

DeMarcus Cousins plays with a trash team, him having not a lot of his baskets assisted says more about how bad the Kings are than anything. Davis flat out beat who ever was defending him off the dribble and launched J's in everyone's face in the playoffs, where is the proof that Cousins can do such a thing in the post season?

The Cousins postseason thing is silly, as I could just as well say where is the proof he can't. We just don't know. And A.D. certainly has nothing to hang his head over after his first 4 playoff games. but it was 4 playoff games, against 1 single opponent, who likes to run, gun and smallball, and would hardly have been targeting that series as a life and death nailbiting matchup. Its a good start, all we can say.

In any case though, this is a larger issue than Cousins or A.D.. This is just a "way the league works" issue, and interestingly a way the league has evolved issue. There are some interesting observations about the following numbers involving the top goto guys over the years. Took this year, last year, then started skipping back about 4-5 years a pop to take snapshots:

2014-15
Paul 19.2
Westbrook 23.0
Harden 27.8
LeBron 34.5
Curry 44.4
Aldridge 49.3
Cousins 52.2
Durant 55.0
Blake 67.4
Davis 71.5
--major players up in the 70+ range -- Jordan (68.9), Love (79.4), Ibaka (79.1)

2013-14
Paul 21.7
Curry 30.1
Westbrook 32.7
Harden 34.1
Anthony 38.6
James 41.6
Durant 47.2
George 49.4
Cousins 53.3
Aldridge 60.0
Griffin 65.2
Davis 66.9
--major players up in the 70+ range -- Jordan (74.4), KThompson (75.1), Matthews (72.8)

2010-11
Westbrook 17.6
Paul 17.9
Rose 27.4
James 32.3
Wade 36.7
Bryant 37.6
Anthony 47.7
Amare 52.7
Howard 53.2
Durant 62.4
Nowitzki 63.1
Griffin 67.0
--major player up in the 70+ range -- DWright (70.5), Allen (74.0)

2005-06
Iverson 24.0
James 32.0
Wade 34.0
Arenas 36.7
Bryant 43.8
Pierce 48.0
Bosh 48.8
Allen 50.1
Nowitzki 50.7
Brand 59.5
Garnett 60.5
Anthony 62.8
--major players/scorers up over 70% assisted: Marion (76.4), Jamison (71.2) RJefferson (76.4), Stojakovic (73.3)

2000-01
Payton 35.9
Bryant 41.8
Iverson 42.4
McGrady 45.6
Stackhouse 50.5
Duncan 53.1
Webber 56.9
Carter 60.4
Garnett 64.5
O'Neal 64.5
Stojakovic 66.5
Nowitzki 69.0
--major players/scorers up over 70% assisted: Jamison (73.5) Miller (77.8)

1996-97 (as far back as we have these stats)
Hill 23.8
Iverson 34.7
Payton 40.9
Sprewell 48.7
Jordan 53.0
Richmond 55.0
O'Neal 62.3
Ewing 65.6
Miller 68.5
Olajuwon 73.3
Malone 77.7
Rice 79.1


-- first of all, Davis is very very high, a 70%+ assisted basket number for any superstar after the 90s is well out of line.
-- secondly, in general the smaller a player is, the better a ballhandler he is, and the better able to create his own shot he is. Its interesting watching, especially after handchecking was banned, the steady sample to sample drop in assisted FG% for the league's top stars. We like to say the offensive is better today, but at least amongst the top level stars, they are playing more one on one than the stars of 10-20 years ago ever did.
-- lone Cousins note is that his 52-53% marks are exactly where they should be for a major goto guy big over the years. And compared to the 90s Cs, he is able to create considerably more of his own offense.
-- I'm going to make another post showing the great PF assisted % over the years and target two possible examples for A.D.: Dirk and Mailman.

[Winsome Gerbil]

The boldest is simply false, though. They're not a small part of his game, but they're not the most important part either. Davis right now is primarily a high volume PNR finisher. Compare him to Amar'e Stoudemire and he comes out looking very favorable- slight dip and volume and very comparable efficiency. Stylistically they share a lot in common, the difference being Davis is finishing at "STAT+Nash" levels of efficiency without a Nash. Seriously, go on NBA.com and look at his numbers. It's freaking astounding.

Also correct me if I'm wrong but by using the term "spot up" I'm assuming you see him as a guy who gets spoon fed jumpers- which is absurd on its face that teams would just let that dangerous a player get open looks consistently. Davis is creating those looks by being so damn good off the ball. Nobody's leaving him open.

Look I can see the Griffin thing since he's such a damn good passer, but everything about Cousins' scoring game is middling and strategically we're past the point where the ability to create volume offense out of the post should be lauded. Davis does the things that we know make offenses good- and he does them better than anyone else.

Also, facing up still counts as "shot creating".

Cousins is actually by quite a bit the BEST goto guy of that group of players.

A fairly straightforward way to look at that kind of ability is just to look at assisted basket percentage. in other words how much help is each guy getting to score his points. The great goto scorers, the great 1 on 1 scorers, typically have lower percentages. Roleplayers and guys who are mostly finishers typically have very high percentages.

52.0% of Cousins baskets last year were assisted (one of the lowest numbers amongst all big men)

67.2 of Blake's baskets were assisted.

71.5% of Anthony Davis's baskets were assisted (putting him in the Top 20% of all NBA players last year in assisted hoops)


It is the big question I continue to have about him. When a game slows down, and you need a hoop, can you just throw it to A.D. and say you're great, go get us a great player hoop? Right now I don't think so. Other players he is often compared to, Admiral, KG etc. never did quite become that guy. Is A.D. going to? Or is he just going to score the easy ones efficiently, and have a guy with more 1 on 1 skill like Evans do the creating when things get tight? For comparison, Tyson Chander was at 72.7% assisted last year.

I don't disagree with this premise on its face. I've made note in every post I've made that his isolation/post game needs work.

I'm gonna go ahead and disagree strongly with your methodology here. First: there's no reason to use the metric you are, which at best is a weak proxy for what we're looking for. We actually have stats now that distill exactly what these guys are doing in different types of shooting situations. For example, isolation:

Anthony Davis: 0.94 PPP, 167 pts,13.6% draw rate
LeBron James: 0.93 PPP, 424 pts, 14.4% draw rate
Carmelo Anthony: 0.95 PPP, 229 pts, 13.3% draw rate
Russell Westbrook: 0.86 PPP, 222 pts, 17.1% draw rate

So yeah, I won't comment further because there's zero ambiguity here.

But wait, you say, Davis is a big man, and the guys I'm comparing him to use post ups for their isolations. That's fair, so let's look at those numbers:

Anthony Davis: 0.85 PPP, 172 pts, 15.8% draw rate
DeMarcus Cousins: 0.87 PPP, 405 pts, 20.3% draw rate
Blake Griffin: 0.95 PPP, 376 pts, 16.6% draw rate

So yeah, actually Griffin is the best guy here but quite a margin. Davis looks very comparable to Cousins, although there's indication that Cousins is slightly more effective. And volume matters. I get that. But criticizing Davis on his % assisted is wrong IMO, given that those plays are far higher efficiency than isolation ball could ever be. Davis is simply maximizing the amount of great shots he gets, but that shouldn't say anything about his ability to be a go-to guy, where he's clearly in the same ballpark as some of the other top stars.

Let's compare these guys in the pick and roll:
Anthony Davis: 1.16 PPP, 423 pts, 15.1% draw rate
DeMarcus Cousins: 0.99 PPP, 202 pts, 17.2% draw rate
Blake Griffin: 0.92 PPP, 270 pts, 7.9% draw rate

So in light of all this, we can clarify your statement earlier. When you use % assisted as a vehicle to criticize Davis' scoring game, what you're saying is that you want him to go away from the thing he does at a GOAT level, and start doing more of the thing that nets him 30 points less per 100 possessions. Hell, even Blake Griffin who's the best in the league at this can't come within .2 PPP of Davis' pick and roll attack.

So yeah, I'm happy that Davis isn't taking your advice.

To clarify, my point is this: It's not that Davis can't isolate/post, it's that he doesn't, because ehe has ways of punishing a defense that are far more effective.

Even though I don't agree with everything there (especially the contention that Davis could be terribly effective if he was posting etc. all the time rather than just in mismatches), but this is a good post, and I never meant to imply that the assisted % is the be all and end all.

It is however something we can check back for 20 years, instead of just the last few of the Sportsvu era. And its trends and results with individual players track very well with what we know about their careers. Its a stable stat.

[GYK]

well its really limitless.
he's a big with mobility and a great shot. they talked about his PG ability pre-growth spurt with very little to show for it in the league you can say it translated to whats a good shot and whats not. defensively the sky is the limit. he can guard everywhere he can shoot from. he covers so much ground.
he can improve in a couple of areas. scoring in the post. finding others. creating his own shot. defender the tem funnels the ball towards(surprisingly hat was a lot of Anderson).
but as is he's good enough to make an argument if longevity and success was behind him. he's so team orientated. although he has a great shot he's a finisher from all over the floor. in the right system he can be himself, win and have the entire team involved..only drawback is the quality of player in very specif/fundamental areas have to be really good.

[ZGendron317]

People are already saying that he can be the GOAT?! Are you serious? It is still way too early people! In 2-3 seasons, then sure! I get this is his ceiling, but I still think it's too early to say that. Right now though, I would say he can be up there on the list, but to say the greatest, or even top 3 now? Hold your horses.

[Extra Medium]

Adrian Dantley didn't make the NBA's top 50 of all time back in 1997 and he's not in my top 75. This is the dumbest thread ever.

[70sFan]

Adrian Dantley didn't make the NBA's top 50 of all time back in 1997 and he's not in my top 75. This is the dumbest thread ever.

Well, I love Dantley and I have him in top 75, probably even in top 50

[Effercon]

6th to 10th.

[XtotheDeezy]

What's the minimum championships he would need to win (assuming he wins FMVP as well) to be considered in the Top 5 conversation?

[mysticOscar]

What's the minimum championships he would need to win (assuming he wins FMVP as well) to be considered in the Top 5 conversation?

I would say 3fmvp (obviously with rings) and best player in league for several seasons should qualify him in discussion...in my atg at least anyway

[Moonbeam]

Not sure there is a ceiling, honestly. Too early to tell, but he's already racked up a super-elite season, so he seems like he has GOAT potential.

[Clyde Frazier]

I think he is very overrated. I mean, this guy has a lot of potential and he already has one great season. But every player from top 50 GOAT list accomplished much more than him. Right now we don't know how good he will be and how his career will be. Maybe he will become GOAT, I don't know. But right now he isn't even in conversation, cause he doesn't show anything GOAT-ish on a court. Great potential and right now very good player, but until he would ahve around 5 seasons on all time level he isn't for me in conversation.

Curious, did you watch his entire first round against GSW this year? He was pretty much unstoppable, warriors were just the better team.

[Warspite]

But right now he isn't even in conversation, cause he doesn't show anything GOAT-ish on a court.

Eh, can't really agree with this. For a big man, he's actually closing in on GOAT tier offensively. From the last 10 years or so, the only PF/C I think has a case against him offensively is Dirk Nowitzki. I mean, Davis' pick and roll numbers are just astounding, blowing away anything we've seen from pretty much anyone. His jumper is pretty damn close to peak Nowitzki levels and already better than what Aldridge has been doing. And he blows away both of those guys as a finisher and rebounder.

His faceup game is strong, although he is lacking as an isolation scorer in general so that's a reasonable thing to knock him for. That will be his biggest area of improvement going forward offensively.

Defensively he's not close to where he needs to be to be GOAT. I agree there. But the dude is the best physical big man prospect in decades, so there's plenty of reason to hope.

Sounds like a argument for George Mikan. Being a great Big man in this era has about as much weight as being a great big man in the 50s.

[ZGendron317]

What's the minimum championships he would need to win (assuming he wins FMVP as well) to be considered in the Top 5 conversation?

I would say 3fmvp (obviously with rings) and best player in league for several seasons should qualify him in discussion...in my atg at least anyway

That's the big issue now, I don't see him winning any rings on NOP


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[yoyoboy]

But right now he isn't even in conversation, cause he doesn't show anything GOAT-ish on a court.

Eh, can't really agree with this. For a big man, he's actually closing in on GOAT tier offensively. From the last 10 years or so, the only PF/C I think has a case against him offensively is Dirk Nowitzki. I mean, Davis' pick and roll numbers are just astounding, blowing away anything we've seen from pretty much anyone. His jumper is pretty damn close to peak Nowitzki levels and already better than what Aldridge has been doing. And he blows away both of those guys as a finisher and rebounder.

His faceup game is strong, although he is lacking as an isolation scorer in general so that's a reasonable thing to knock him for. That will be his biggest area of improvement going forward offensively.

Defensively he's not close to where he needs to be to be GOAT. I agree there. But the dude is the best physical big man prospect in decades, so there's plenty of reason to hope.

Yeah as far as offensive games and impact on that end go, the only bigs (if we're looking at their primes) who I have ahead of current Davis are Kareem, Shaq, D Rob, Wilt, Dirk, Karl and Barkley.

[Ballerhogger]

Top 30ish right now. I mean is he ever going get the talent he needs in NO and he plays in the west . Is he going go the KG route and be on treadmill to terrible team for most of his career?