Peaks Project #21

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Peaks Project #21 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Thu Oct 8, 2015 8:28 pm

RealGM Greatest Player Peaks of All-Time List
1. Michael Jordan ('91---unanimous)
2. Shaquille O'Neal ('00---unanimous)
3. Lebron James ('13---non-unanimous ('09, '12))
4. Wilt Chamberlain ('67---non-unanimous ('64))
5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar ('77---non-unanimous ('71, '72))
6. Hakeem Olajuwon ('94---non-unanimous ('93))
7. Tim Duncan ('03---non-unanimous ('02))
8. Kevin Garnett ('04---unanimous)
9. Bill Russell ('65---non-unanimous ('62, '64))
10. Magic Johnson ('87---unanimous)
11. Larry Bird ('86---non-unanimous ('87, '88))
12. David Robinson ('95---non-unanimous ('94, '96))
13. Bill Walton ('77---unanimous)
14. Julius Erving ('76---unanimous)
15. Oscar Robertson ('64---non-unanimous ('63))
16. Dwyane Wade ('09---non-unanimous ('06, '10))
17. Stephen Curry ('15---unanimous)
18. Dirk Nowitzki ('11---non-unanimous ('06, '09))
19. Jerry West ('66---non-unanimous ('68, '69))
20. Kevin Durant ('14---unanimous)
21. ???

Start it up. Target stop time for this thread will be either late Friday night or maybe Saturday morning.

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Re: Peaks Project #21 

Post#2 » by Dr Positivity » Thu Oct 8, 2015 8:43 pm

Ballot 1 - Patrick Ewing 1990

Ballot 2 - Kobe Bryant 2008

Ballot 3 - Chris Paul 2008

My 3rd ballot was between Paul and Barkley, two great offensive players, I'm more sold on Paul defense
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Re: Peaks Project #21 

Post#3 » by Clyde Frazier » Thu Oct 8, 2015 8:45 pm

Traveling tomorrow, so may not have time to contribute. Might as well get my votes in now, as they haven't changed since last thread.

Ballot #1 - 90 Ewing

Spoiler:
Lending some support for Ewing here. Being at his peak athletically in 1990, Ewing was a workhorse on both ends of the floor. His combination of volume scoring on great efficiency and ability to anchor a defense should be worthy of this range. Led the 13th ranked SRS knicks to a 1st round upset of the 8th ranked SRS celtics in the first round. Would end up being eliminated by the eventual champion pistons, put still put up a valiant effort in the series, with 27.2 PPG. 9.6 RPG, 2.2 APG, .8 SPG, 2.2 BPG on 56% TS. Pistons also ranked 2nd in defense that season. If only Riley got his hands on Ewing a few years earlier...


Ballot #2 - 93 Barkley

Spoiler:
Totally see a case for 90 being his peak, but I like Barkley’s more refined game in PHX where he was still an excellent athlete (and in amazing shape), but was a little less reckless. Of course he had more talent around him, but I think that slightly toned down version helped them get as far as they did in the postseason. I’m not quite sure 90 barkley gets them there.

93 WCF game 7 against the sonics - 44 PTS / 22 REB / 1 AST / 1 STL / 1 BLK / 74.1% TS / 167 ORTG :o

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pP1MV2rSxIU[/youtube]


Ballot #3 - 03 McGrady

Spoiler:
Have to say... looking at 03 McGrady vs. 09 Kobe vs. 2014 Durant comes off as close of a comparison as we've had in the project thus far. I see a good case for all 3, and I decided to go with the 09 Wade thinking here in picking McGrady. He carried a weak supporting cast on his back for an entire season, putting up very impressive individual #s in the process.

His 3 best teammates were arguably pat garrity, 34 yr old darrell armstrong, and mike miller for 49 games. His on/off that season was a pretty staggering +13. McGrady then nearly led the magic to a major upset of the 5th ranked SRS pistons, eventually going down in 7 games. I just like his overall package that he brought to the table slightly more than Kobe and Durant that season.

[EDIT - grant hill also appeared in 29 games, but didn't play in the playoffs, and miller was traded for drew gooden midway thru the season]
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Re: Peaks Project #21 

Post#4 » by drza » Thu Oct 8, 2015 9:57 pm

No change from last thread

Vote:
1990 Patrick Ewing
2008 Kobe Bryant
2003 Tracy McGrady


With Ewing, if I'm convinced that he's near the peak of his defensive powers here, he should be reasonably in the +5 to +6 range on defense (using Doc MJ's normalized RAPM scale as a base; for reference Duncan (+6.78), Robinson post '97 (+6.78), Ben Wallace (+6.8) and Zo Mouning post 97 (~+7) all peaked on defense around +7 on that scale, so peak Ewing should at least be within shouting distance of that). Meanwhile, high-volume/efficiency scoring bigs that aren't big assist men (using Dwight Howard and Amare Stoudemire as estimate models) tended to peak around + 3 to +4. Thus, I think +8 to +9 is a reasonable estimate for peak Ewing on this scale. Peak Kobe was +8.1 for a couple of seasons in a row. McGrady is a bit harder to gauge because Englemann's RAPm from 2002 was incomplete and 2003 was referenced to 2003, but his raw net on/off and his old-school 2002-2004 APM were both very strong so he's probably in the same range as Kobe on that scale.
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Re: Peaks Project #21 

Post#5 » by thizznation » Thu Oct 8, 2015 11:09 pm

My ballot is going to be the same as the last 3.

Bryant 08
Ewing 90
McGrady 03
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Re: Peaks Project #21 

Post#6 » by JordansBulls » Fri Oct 9, 2015 2:19 am

Been out of town so haven't been around.

1. Moses Malone 1983 (Dominant on the season and playoffs, led team to one of the greatest seasons of all time and the greatest playoff run considered by many)
2. Kobe 2008 (led team to the finals and best record in conference. Dethroned defending champions)
3. Ewing 1990 (defeated prime Bird in the playoffs with an inferior squad and dominated in the season and playoffs)
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Re: Peaks Project #21 

Post#7 » by eminence » Fri Oct 9, 2015 3:20 am

JordansBulls wrote:Been out of town so haven't been around.

1. Kobe 2008 (led team to the finals and best record in conference. Dethroned defending champions)
2. Ewing 1990 (defeated prime Bird in the playoffs with an inferior squad and dominated in the season and playoffs)
3. Mcgrady 2003 (awesome year and arguably his best season, one of the best seasons in the 2000's.)


I remember you being a fan of Moses in the past, any particular reason you've stepped away from him?
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Re: Peaks Project #21 

Post#8 » by JordansBulls » Fri Oct 9, 2015 3:42 am

eminence wrote:
JordansBulls wrote:Been out of town so haven't been around.

1. Kobe 2008 (led team to the finals and best record in conference. Dethroned defending champions)
2. Ewing 1990 (defeated prime Bird in the playoffs with an inferior squad and dominated in the season and playoffs)
3. Mcgrady 2003 (awesome year and arguably his best season, one of the best seasons in the 2000's.)


I remember you being a fan of Moses in the past, any particular reason you've stepped away from him?

I actually thought he was taken by now.
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Re: Peaks Project #21 

Post#9 » by drza » Fri Oct 9, 2015 4:36 am

Ready to start talking Barkley and both Malones. Never loved Moses' style, per se, but the recent +/- data has shwon it was very effective in different seasons of his career. At the moment, all three sound more interesting to me than the upcoming wave of PGs
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Re: Peaks Project #21 

Post#10 » by trex_8063 » Fri Oct 9, 2015 4:40 am

I've been thinking and have re-tooled my picks a bit....

1st ballot: Chris Paul '15
Kinda went thru Paul a bit in post 15 of the #19 thread. Basically he's someone I don't put too far behind Nash as an offensive engine, and obviously better defensively (a clear net positive defensively by all available impact indicators, who also received All-D 1st team this year, fwiw). Am waffling a little wrt what year to call his peak ('08 is obviously phenomenal, too). Had mentioned I'd consider putting him ahead of McGrady; well, now I've done so based on his more complete 2-way game.


2nd ballot: Charles Barkley '90
Well, here's what I'd written about '90 vs. '93 in the #16 thread:

"I tend to think of Barkley's peak as '90, as opposed to '93 (or ‘91, which I think is very close, too). '90 was more the culmination of skills and physical peak to me. No doubt his playmaking was a bit improved in '93; and Spaceman mentioned his improved proficiency from the mid-range (and greater willingness to use it) by '93, and stated this as a good thing. But tbh, I'm not sure it is a good thing for Barkley.

Because the thing is: he never really reached a point where he was a legitimately "good" mid-range shooter; fair or "not bad", but not actually good (at least not at all compared to the upshot that was present when he attacked the rim). And him taking nearly 3 attempts/game from trey at 30.5% isn't what I would call a good thing either.
Few things I note in relation to this greater willingness to shoot from mid-range or long range in ‘93: he had the lowest FG% since his rookie season, the lowest eFG% of his career to that point, the lowest FTr of his entire career (both before and after ‘93; by far lower than any year prior to ‘93), and the lowest TS% of his career to that point. Basically, many of the things that led to him being at or near the top of the league in 2Pt%, eFG%, and TS% (year-after-year) vanished in '93 as result of this greater tendency to shoot far from the basket.

Perhaps it could be argued the silver lining was that this opened the floor up a little to help the team offense or some such. Pro-'93 crowd would likely wish to point out that they were the #1 offense that year (+5.3 rORTG); however, this team was +3.9 rORTG (5th in league) the year before Barkley arrived (though he wasn’t the only roster change). But point still stands: this was a talented offensive team even without Barkley.

I'm frankly more impressed with the +5.4 rORTG (2nd in league) he anchored in '90 with a supporting cast of Hersey Hawkins, Johnny Dawkins, Mike Gminski, Rick Mahorn, Ron Anderson, and Derek Smith, than I am with a +5.3 rORTG with a supporting cast of Kevin Johnson, Dan Majerle, Tom Chambers, Cedric Ceballos, Danny Ainge, Mark West, Richard Dumas, and Oliver Miller. And his individual numbers probably marginally more impressive in '90, too.

Take for instance him shooting >63% from 2pt range in THREE separate seasons ('90 was one of them); on his kind of volume, that’s insane. Seriously, who, outside of low-volume guys like Tyson Chandler or Chris Andersen ever shoots >63% from inside the arc? Even ‘67 Wilt doesn’t quite match…...you don’t even have to adjust for pace, merely adjust for minutes: if you do a search for all seasons in NBA history of >13 FGA/36 minutes, >63% 2Pt%, and >27 mpg you come up with precisely two seasons…..and BOTH of them are Barkley (‘89 and ‘90).
Honestly, in that circa-’90 era of his career he has a case as the surest two points or two FT attempts in NBA history.

So I tend to think of that time period as his offensive peak (and offense is really what you're talking about with Charles Barkley). "




And Dipper followed it up with this:
Dipper 13 wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:Honestly, in that circa-’90 era of his career he has a case as the surest two points or two FT attempts in NBA history.



Yes indeed. In the original 100 game sample of Barkley he was shooting 81.0% at the rim on 8.2 FGA. But I did not do the Synergy chart for the last 16 games. In the original 84 game sample (includes Synergy chart and Shot Chart), he was shooting 81.0% at the rim on 7.9 FGA per game. If we subtract all transition plays, the total is 467/574 for 81.3%. Even looking at half court plays only, Barkley's effectiveness is virtually unchanged at the rim.

But getting into the synergy plays, he was actually more efficient in multiple half court plays than he was on the fastbreak, which is saying something given how terrific he was in transition (1.6 PPP, 78.7% FG).

PPP is Points Per Play.


Post Up - 1.64 PPP, 76.5% FG, 3.5 FGA

Off. Rebound - 1.65 PPP, 78.2% FG, 2.1 FGA

Cut To Basket - 2.14 PPP, 100% FG, 0.9 FGA


As can be seen above, he was completely indefensible in the post, on the offensive glass, or cutting to the basket (100% FG). While he was definitely stoppable in isolation that was primarily due to him settling for the outside shot as you mentioned or if the defense could quickly close off the front of the rim and force an off balance leaning shot. Barkley was very efficient going to the basket no matter what, though he was most comfortable in the post.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6HkjByWLFU&t=1h17m3s


How do you defend this for instance, he spins out of playoff double teams so easily like a practice drill.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmjUpA3UVlA&t=3m6s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsTKc_AKSlU&t=8m5s

Overall, Barkley just seems a more "transcendent" player than McGrady, if that makes any sense (although that could just be nostalgia talking).


3rd ballot: Tracy McGrady '03
Hard to deny this season. Amazing box and advanced metrics during the rs, numbers that easily put him in contention here (near-historic rs PER, fwiw), as he lifted a pretty mediocre (poor, actually) cast to a top-10 offense (he had the 2nd-highest OPRAM---behind only Shaq---that year) and a playoff berth. Went for 31.7/6.7/4.7 on 56.1% TS (27.0 PER, .181 WS/48, +9.3 BPM) against a top-5 defense in the playoffs, while taking the #1 seed to 7 games. Was tied for 5th in PI RAPM that year, fwiw.

Next up for me: Kobe, both Malones, Ewing, Nash.
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Re: Peaks Project #21 

Post#11 » by urnoggin » Fri Oct 9, 2015 11:42 am

1st ballot: 2008 Kobe Bryant
2nd ballot: 2008 Chris Paul
3rd ballot: 2003 Tracy McGrady


1st and 2nd are the same for me as last time. Got T-Mac at third because he was as close to complete as an offensive player as there was. Ridiculous scoring season on good efficiency and almost lead his Magic over the Pistons. He did fall off a bit over the back end of that series but when you look at that series as a whole his numbers are pretty consistent with what he produced in the RS.
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Re: Peaks Project #21 

Post#12 » by trex_8063 » Fri Oct 9, 2015 1:22 pm

drza wrote:Ready to start talking Barkley and both Malones. Never loved Moses' style, per se, but the recent +/- data has shwon it was very effective in different seasons of his career. At the moment, all three sound more interesting to me than the upcoming wave of PGs


fwiw, Here's re-post of the Karl/Charles comp I'd done several threads back:
trex_8063 wrote:Barkley vs. Malone
As it was often a debate during their overlapping careers, it's still an interesting (i.e. close) debate today, imo.

At the time I recall feeling Barkley peaked higher, and that Malone surpassed Barkley overall only late in his career by doing his best Energizer Bunny impression (just kept going and going and going). Still, I think it warrants taking a closer look.

Before I proceed, I guess I should specify where I think their respective peaks are…..

I tend to think of Barkley's peak as '90, as opposed to '93 (or ‘91, which I think is very close, too). '90 was more the culmination of skills and physical peak to me. No doubt his playmaking was a bit improved in '93; and Spaceman mentioned his improved proficiency from the mid-range (and greater willingness to use it) by '93, and stated this as a good thing. But tbh, I'm not sure it is a good thing for Barkley.

Because the thing is: he never really reached a point where he was a legitimately "good" mid-range shooter; fair or "not bad", but not actually good (at least not at all compared to the upshot that was present when he attacked the rim). And him taking nearly 3 attempts/game from trey at 30.5% isn't what I would call a good thing either.
Few things I note in relation to this greater willingness to shoot from mid-range or long range in ‘93: he had the lowest FG% since his rookie season, the lowest eFG% of his career to that point, the lowest FTr of his entire career (both before and after ‘93; by far lower than any year prior to ‘93), and the lowest TS% of his career to that point. Basically, many of the things that led to him being at or near the top of the league in 2Pt%, eFG%, and TS% (year-after-year) vanished in '93 as result of this greater tendency to shoot far from the basket.

Perhaps it could be argued the silver lining was that this opened the floor up a little to help the team offense or some such. Pro-'93 crowd would likely wish to point out that they were the #1 offense that year (+5.3 rORTG); however, this team was +3.9 rORTG (5th in league) the year before Barkley arrived (though he wasn’t the only roster change). But point still stands: this was a talented offensive team even without Barkley.

I'm frankly more impressed with the +5.4 rORTG (2nd in league) he anchored in '90 with a supporting cast of Hersey Hawkins, Johnny Dawkins, Mike Gminski, Rick Mahorn, Ron Anderson, and Derek Smith, than I am with a +5.3 rORTG with a supporting cast of Kevin Johnson, Dan Majerle, Tom Chambers, Cedric Ceballos, Danny Ainge, Mark West, Richard Dumas, and Oliver Miller. And his individual numbers probably marginally more impressive in '90, too.

Take for instance him shooting >63% from 2pt range in THREE separate seasons ('90 was one of them); on his kind of volume, that’s insane. Seriously, who, outside of low-volume guys like Tyson Chandler or Chris Andersen ever shoots >63% from inside the arc? Even ‘67 Wilt doesn’t quite match…...you don’t even have to adjust for pace, merely adjust for minutes: if you do a search for all seasons in NBA history of >13 FGA/36 minutes, >63% 2Pt%, and >27 mpg you come up with precisely two seasons…..and BOTH of them are Barkley (‘89 and ‘90).
Honestly, in that circa-’90 era of his career he has a case as the surest two points or two FT attempts in NBA history.

So I tend to think of that time period as his offensive peak (and offense is really what you're talking about with Charles Barkley).


For Malone, I tend to look at either '97 or '98 as his peak. I know a lot of people like '92, because it's statistically his best playoff numbers. But his playoff numbers in '98 are barely behind, and that as part of a trip to the finals (he went for 25.0 ppg on 55.3% in the finals, too, though I know he flubbed a couple crucial moments in the series); and the rs was even better in '98 than ‘92 ('97 was probably his BEST all-around rs).
I like the more refined mid-range game and turnaround that he had by this time in his career. I don't find this to be a hindrance on his game like I did with Barkley (in fact, I think it was to his benefit) for three reasons: 1) he was BETTER from the mid-range than Barkley ever was; 2) he was never quite as dominant attacking the rim as Barkley (so there's less "lost upshot" of him not attacking the basket); and 3) with how much they worked the pnr 2-man game in Utah, it’s a good thing to have a mid-range shot to facilitate a pick n’ pop.
And lastly, I think he was a better defender at this point in his career than he was in '92 (perhaps evidenced by All-D 1st team selections in '97-'99).


So let’s look at ‘90 Barkley vs. '97-'98 Karl Malone......

Rebounding
Mostly focusing on defensive rebounding, as I’m to a small degree lumping offensive rebounding into their capabilities as scorers. Malone has a pretty decent edge over ‘90 Barkley on the defensive boards (DRB% of 24.5% between ‘97 and ‘98, vs. 20.0% for ‘90 Barkley).
Barkley was the better offensive rebounder (more on that below); but even with that, Malone still had the marginally higher TRB% (though same in reb/100 possessions).
So I’m giving Malone a small edge as a rebounder, especially given the focus on defensive rebounding in this category.

Passing/Playmaking
Malone by this point in his career is one of the best passing bigs of all-time, and is averaging 6.1 ast/100 possessions between ‘97-’98, vs. 4.3 tov/100. Barkley’s pretty good too, and I will hand it to Barkley that he also had the handles to do a bit more off the dribble, and particularly being the guy to LEAD the fast-break (not just finish it).
Overall, this category feels pretty close to a wash; if I had to pick I’d lean slightly to Malone.

Defense
Well this one is clearly a solid advantage to Malone. He was an excellent low-post defender, a very good pnr defender, quick enough to not be lost if caught on a switch, good on rotations, got a few steals and blocks (clearly without often being out of position for the defensive rebound).
Other than the defensive rebounds and getting some steals, Barkley was good at basically none of these things, at least not on any regular basis. I recall single plays where he was brilliant, but he didn’t show the effort or interest on a consistent basis. And I think his height was a bit of a liability in low-post defense.

Intangibles
Neither guy is amazing where intangibles are concerned, though not awful either. I imagine Barkley was probably better liked by his teammates in many instances, but Malone had the much better work ethic. I kinda like Malone a little better where things like screen-setting is concerned. I’d maybe have to re-watch some games, but off the cuff I think they were fairly similar as outlet passers.

Scoring
I’ll start on Malone. There’s no question he benefited from system and Stockton, but to hear some people talk about it, they’d have you believe that without Stockton he’s basically Zach Randolph as a scorer. Come on…..
He’s 6’9” 260 lbs of solid muscle, he runs the floor well (very well), has great hands, can finish very well (excellent/elite?), can shoot from the mid-range (quite well, really), had a few weapons in the post (turnaround, put his head down and plow into the middle of the lane for that little floating one-hander), could hit his FT’s, and was a pretty good offensive rebounder (8.4% ORB% in years specified)......that’s someone who is scoring a minimum of 23-24 ppg on at least “good” efficiency in basically any circumstance in any era. The only instance in which I could see him scoring less would perhaps be if on a team with TWO other superstars (like say he takes over Bosh’s role on the ‘11-’14 Heat).....he may only go for ~20-21 ppg in that circumstance, though likely on dynamite efficiency.
Here’s what he DID score in ‘97-’98:
39.5 pts/100 possessions @ 59.8% TS in 37.0 mpg in rs
36.2 pts/100 possessions @ 51.7% TS in 40.3 mpg in playoffs

His rs stats oversell his ability as a scorer, playoff numbers probably at least marginally undersell his scoring ability. Obv the playoff drop is a concern, but generally speaking he was probably just not a scorer meant to shoulder ~32% usage in the first place, and I’m sure he doesn’t manage it as well as he did without Stockton. Probably could have managed 24-25% usage pretty well though.

Barkley, as I alluded to above, is a scoring beast. Remarkable finisher, just amazing at attacking the basket. As good as Malone was at drawing fouls, Barkley was even better (and was a respectable FT-shooter at nearly 75% in ‘90).
I remember a thread somewhat recently about who had the best shot/pump-fake of all-time. Dantley of course was who came to mind for me. But Barkley had an amazing pump-fake, too. I can’t believe how often he’d get defenders to bite on it when he’s like 18-19 feet from the hoop (again: not really a good mid-range shooter in ‘90) when he’s so dangerous when attacking the interior.
Barkley was the better and more tenacious offensive rebounder, which is part of what facilitates his absurd shooting efficiency (high% put-backs), as well as “stealing” possessions from the opponent.

Barkley was so ridiculously strong, and with that low center of gravity, was outstanding at just backing defenders down in the post until he was close enough to explode at the rim. And did I mention he was strong? I swear, there were times he exploded up toward the rim, with ~6’10” guys hanging all over him…..and his body would just continue to rise; he would just power thru them.
Amazing in transition, too.
Barkley’s ‘90 scoring stats:
32.1 pts/100 possessions @ 66.1% TS [no, that’s not a typo] in 39.1 mpg in the rs
30.4 pts/100 possessions @ 58.9% TS in 41.9 mpg in the playoffs

I look at the playoff scoring that’s still elite-level (and with no one like Stockton to help him), and that utterly ridiculous rs efficiency---btw, search all the seasons with >23 pts/36 min, >65% TS, >27 mpg…...there are only 7 seasons ever, and 3 of them are Barkley (‘88-’90); make the mark >66% TS and there are only three seasons, two of which are Barkley---and I can’t help feeling that Barkley is the significantly more dominant scorer.

Is his superiority as a pure scorer enough to tip the scales given Malone’s edge as a defender and tiny edge as a rebounder? idk…..anymore, I’m not too sure. At the very least, it seems that wherever Barkley is in this project, Malone’s right behind him.


Where Moses fits in here is very ambiguous to me. Moses is such an outlier, stylistically, makes him a little harder to place. It seems like he's worse than Karl at basically everything except offensive rebounding (where he has a big edge). Vs. Barkley, it seems he's worse at everything except offensive rebounding, FT-shooting, and maybe defense. And yet he exerted similar degrees of dominance as both players.

idk if any of them can definitively be held above some of the PG's you refer to, especially a two-way elite level player like Chris Paul.
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Re: Peaks Project #21 

Post#13 » by E-Balla » Fri Oct 9, 2015 2:04 pm

PGs:
1. 08 Chris Paul
2/3. 05 Nash/96 Penny
4/5. 99 Kidd/85 IT

Wings:
1 03 T-Mac
2. 06 Kobe Bryant
3. 61 Elgin Baylor
4. 97 Grant Hill
5/6. 01 VC/15 Harden

Bigs:
1/2. 90 Pat/83 Moses
3. 90 Charles Barkley
4/5/6. 11 Dwight/98 Karl/00 Zo

My nominations will be:
1. 03 Tracy McGrady
2. 90 Patrick Ewing
3. 83 Moses Malone
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Re: Peaks Project #21 

Post#14 » by E-Balla » Fri Oct 9, 2015 2:37 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
drza wrote:Ready to start talking Barkley and both Malones. Never loved Moses' style, per se, but the recent +/- data has shwon it was very effective in different seasons of his career. At the moment, all three sound more interesting to me than the upcoming wave of PGs


fwiw, Here's re-post of the Karl/Charles comp I'd done several threads back:
trex_8063 wrote:Barkley vs. Malone
As it was often a debate during their overlapping careers, it's still an interesting (i.e. close) debate today, imo.

At the time I recall feeling Barkley peaked higher, and that Malone surpassed Barkley overall only late in his career by doing his best Energizer Bunny impression (just kept going and going and going). Still, I think it warrants taking a closer look.

Before I proceed, I guess I should specify where I think their respective peaks are…..

I tend to think of Barkley's peak as '90, as opposed to '93 (or ‘91, which I think is very close, too). '90 was more the culmination of skills and physical peak to me. No doubt his playmaking was a bit improved in '93; and Spaceman mentioned his improved proficiency from the mid-range (and greater willingness to use it) by '93, and stated this as a good thing. But tbh, I'm not sure it is a good thing for Barkley.

Because the thing is: he never really reached a point where he was a legitimately "good" mid-range shooter; fair or "not bad", but not actually good (at least not at all compared to the upshot that was present when he attacked the rim). And him taking nearly 3 attempts/game from trey at 30.5% isn't what I would call a good thing either.
Few things I note in relation to this greater willingness to shoot from mid-range or long range in ‘93: he had the lowest FG% since his rookie season, the lowest eFG% of his career to that point, the lowest FTr of his entire career (both before and after ‘93; by far lower than any year prior to ‘93), and the lowest TS% of his career to that point. Basically, many of the things that led to him being at or near the top of the league in 2Pt%, eFG%, and TS% (year-after-year) vanished in '93 as result of this greater tendency to shoot far from the basket.

Perhaps it could be argued the silver lining was that this opened the floor up a little to help the team offense or some such. Pro-'93 crowd would likely wish to point out that they were the #1 offense that year (+5.3 rORTG); however, this team was +3.9 rORTG (5th in league) the year before Barkley arrived (though he wasn’t the only roster change). But point still stands: this was a talented offensive team even without Barkley.

I'm frankly more impressed with the +5.4 rORTG (2nd in league) he anchored in '90 with a supporting cast of Hersey Hawkins, Johnny Dawkins, Mike Gminski, Rick Mahorn, Ron Anderson, and Derek Smith, than I am with a +5.3 rORTG with a supporting cast of Kevin Johnson, Dan Majerle, Tom Chambers, Cedric Ceballos, Danny Ainge, Mark West, Richard Dumas, and Oliver Miller. And his individual numbers probably marginally more impressive in '90, too.

Take for instance him shooting >63% from 2pt range in THREE separate seasons ('90 was one of them); on his kind of volume, that’s insane. Seriously, who, outside of low-volume guys like Tyson Chandler or Chris Andersen ever shoots >63% from inside the arc? Even ‘67 Wilt doesn’t quite match…...you don’t even have to adjust for pace, merely adjust for minutes: if you do a search for all seasons in NBA history of >13 FGA/36 minutes, >63% 2Pt%, and >27 mpg you come up with precisely two seasons…..and BOTH of them are Barkley (‘89 and ‘90).
Honestly, in that circa-’90 era of his career he has a case as the surest two points or two FT attempts in NBA history.

So I tend to think of that time period as his offensive peak (and offense is really what you're talking about with Charles Barkley).


For Malone, I tend to look at either '97 or '98 as his peak. I know a lot of people like '92, because it's statistically his best playoff numbers. But his playoff numbers in '98 are barely behind, and that as part of a trip to the finals (he went for 25.0 ppg on 55.3% in the finals, too, though I know he flubbed a couple crucial moments in the series); and the rs was even better in '98 than ‘92 ('97 was probably his BEST all-around rs).
I like the more refined mid-range game and turnaround that he had by this time in his career. I don't find this to be a hindrance on his game like I did with Barkley (in fact, I think it was to his benefit) for three reasons: 1) he was BETTER from the mid-range than Barkley ever was; 2) he was never quite as dominant attacking the rim as Barkley (so there's less "lost upshot" of him not attacking the basket); and 3) with how much they worked the pnr 2-man game in Utah, it’s a good thing to have a mid-range shot to facilitate a pick n’ pop.
And lastly, I think he was a better defender at this point in his career than he was in '92 (perhaps evidenced by All-D 1st team selections in '97-'99).


So let’s look at ‘90 Barkley vs. '97-'98 Karl Malone......

Rebounding
Mostly focusing on defensive rebounding, as I’m to a small degree lumping offensive rebounding into their capabilities as scorers. Malone has a pretty decent edge over ‘90 Barkley on the defensive boards (DRB% of 24.5% between ‘97 and ‘98, vs. 20.0% for ‘90 Barkley).
Barkley was the better offensive rebounder (more on that below); but even with that, Malone still had the marginally higher TRB% (though same in reb/100 possessions).
So I’m giving Malone a small edge as a rebounder, especially given the focus on defensive rebounding in this category.

Passing/Playmaking
Malone by this point in his career is one of the best passing bigs of all-time, and is averaging 6.1 ast/100 possessions between ‘97-’98, vs. 4.3 tov/100. Barkley’s pretty good too, and I will hand it to Barkley that he also had the handles to do a bit more off the dribble, and particularly being the guy to LEAD the fast-break (not just finish it).
Overall, this category feels pretty close to a wash; if I had to pick I’d lean slightly to Malone.

Defense
Well this one is clearly a solid advantage to Malone. He was an excellent low-post defender, a very good pnr defender, quick enough to not be lost if caught on a switch, good on rotations, got a few steals and blocks (clearly without often being out of position for the defensive rebound).
Other than the defensive rebounds and getting some steals, Barkley was good at basically none of these things, at least not on any regular basis. I recall single plays where he was brilliant, but he didn’t show the effort or interest on a consistent basis. And I think his height was a bit of a liability in low-post defense.

Intangibles
Neither guy is amazing where intangibles are concerned, though not awful either. I imagine Barkley was probably better liked by his teammates in many instances, but Malone had the much better work ethic. I kinda like Malone a little better where things like screen-setting is concerned. I’d maybe have to re-watch some games, but off the cuff I think they were fairly similar as outlet passers.

Scoring
I’ll start on Malone. There’s no question he benefited from system and Stockton, but to hear some people talk about it, they’d have you believe that without Stockton he’s basically Zach Randolph as a scorer. Come on…..
He’s 6’9” 260 lbs of solid muscle, he runs the floor well (very well), has great hands, can finish very well (excellent/elite?), can shoot from the mid-range (quite well, really), had a few weapons in the post (turnaround, put his head down and plow into the middle of the lane for that little floating one-hander), could hit his FT’s, and was a pretty good offensive rebounder (8.4% ORB% in years specified)......that’s someone who is scoring a minimum of 23-24 ppg on at least “good” efficiency in basically any circumstance in any era. The only instance in which I could see him scoring less would perhaps be if on a team with TWO other superstars (like say he takes over Bosh’s role on the ‘11-’14 Heat).....he may only go for ~20-21 ppg in that circumstance, though likely on dynamite efficiency.
Here’s what he DID score in ‘97-’98:
39.5 pts/100 possessions @ 59.8% TS in 37.0 mpg in rs
36.2 pts/100 possessions @ 51.7% TS in 40.3 mpg in playoffs

His rs stats oversell his ability as a scorer, playoff numbers probably at least marginally undersell his scoring ability. Obv the playoff drop is a concern, but generally speaking he was probably just not a scorer meant to shoulder ~32% usage in the first place, and I’m sure he doesn’t manage it as well as he did without Stockton. Probably could have managed 24-25% usage pretty well though.

Barkley, as I alluded to above, is a scoring beast. Remarkable finisher, just amazing at attacking the basket. As good as Malone was at drawing fouls, Barkley was even better (and was a respectable FT-shooter at nearly 75% in ‘90).
I remember a thread somewhat recently about who had the best shot/pump-fake of all-time. Dantley of course was who came to mind for me. But Barkley had an amazing pump-fake, too. I can’t believe how often he’d get defenders to bite on it when he’s like 18-19 feet from the hoop (again: not really a good mid-range shooter in ‘90) when he’s so dangerous when attacking the interior.
Barkley was the better and more tenacious offensive rebounder, which is part of what facilitates his absurd shooting efficiency (high% put-backs), as well as “stealing” possessions from the opponent.

Barkley was so ridiculously strong, and with that low center of gravity, was outstanding at just backing defenders down in the post until he was close enough to explode at the rim. And did I mention he was strong? I swear, there were times he exploded up toward the rim, with ~6’10” guys hanging all over him…..and his body would just continue to rise; he would just power thru them.
Amazing in transition, too.
Barkley’s ‘90 scoring stats:
32.1 pts/100 possessions @ 66.1% TS [no, that’s not a typo] in 39.1 mpg in the rs
30.4 pts/100 possessions @ 58.9% TS in 41.9 mpg in the playoffs

I look at the playoff scoring that’s still elite-level (and with no one like Stockton to help him), and that utterly ridiculous rs efficiency---btw, search all the seasons with >23 pts/36 min, >65% TS, >27 mpg…...there are only 7 seasons ever, and 3 of them are Barkley (‘88-’90); make the mark >66% TS and there are only three seasons, two of which are Barkley---and I can’t help feeling that Barkley is the significantly more dominant scorer.

Is his superiority as a pure scorer enough to tip the scales given Malone’s edge as a defender and tiny edge as a rebounder? idk…..anymore, I’m not too sure. At the very least, it seems that wherever Barkley is in this project, Malone’s right behind him.


Where Moses fits in here is very ambiguous to me. Moses is such an outlier, stylistically, makes him a little harder to place. It seems like he's worse than Karl at basically everything except offensive rebounding (where he has a big edge). Vs. Barkley, it seems he's worse at everything except offensive rebounding, FT-shooting, and maybe defense. And yet he exerted similar degrees of dominance as both players.

idk if any of them can definitively be held above some of the PG's you refer to, especially a two-way elite level player like Chris Paul.

I was down on Moses for a long time but after watching some of his old games you can really see how much his ability to score coupled with his ability to outrebound teams (like that game in 82 where he had 21 OREB and Seattle had 21 total rebounds) and dominate head to head matchups (a large advantage he has over a lot of other players is how unstoppable he was one on one with his strength and domination on the boards) was major.

Now of the 3 Chuck is the best scorer and passer well ahead of Moses and Karl, Moses is the best rebounder well ahead of those two, and if we take 83 Moses he's the best defender of the three (by a distance with Chuck). What comes up with Moses to me is how amazing his +/- numbers are offensively in some of those seasons where he didn't play defense.

Here's the (approximate) RAPM of all Sixers from 77-96:
Malone 4.03
Barkley 2.97
B. Jones 2.58
McGinnis 2.10
Erving 1.93
Cheeks 1.75
Hollins 1.20
Toney 1.04
Free 1.03
R. Anderson 0.45
Mix 0.41
Hornacek 0.35
Hawkins 0.28
Dawkins 0.25
Mahorn 0.23
Bibby 0.10

And Moses' yearly on/off from what we have:
YEAR MIN ORTG DRTG NET
1982-83 2922 8,2 -7,4 15,6
1983-84 2613 10,4 7,1 3,3
1984-85 2957 18,8 -2,8 21,7
1985-86 2706 8,9 1,8 7,2

Including an approximate 116.1 on court ORTG in 85. By +/- his best seasons holds up with guys we put top 10 in this project and he's higher than 21 on my personal list.
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Re: Peaks Project #21 

Post#15 » by eminence » Fri Oct 9, 2015 3:05 pm

1st Ballot: Chris Paul 07-08

2nd Ballot: Kobe Bryant 07-08

3rd Ballot: Ewing 89-90

HM: Moses/McGrady are my big two right now.

-Ewing over Moses- prefer Ewing's defensive advantage for now.
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Re: Peaks Project #21 

Post#16 » by Narigo » Fri Oct 9, 2015 6:36 pm

1. 1997 Karl Malone
Going with 1997 Karl Malone over 1990 Charles Barkley and 2006 Kobe Bryant.
Karl Malone is one of the greatest off ball big man ever. Excellent roll man and hes really good at getting in position to score. Pretty good spot up shooter. I think he was utilized incorrectly in the playoffs which is why his playoff numbers are so low.

2. 1990 Charles Barkley

Unguardable in iso and post situations. Good Ball Handler, Passer and good in transition. I pick 1990 over 1993 because he was more athletic and efficient from the field. Shot 63% on 2 point shots in 1990.

Was considered to be as good as prime MJ and Magic Johnson in 1990. In fact, he had the most first place votes for MVP.

3. 2006 Kobe Bryant
More info on this later
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Re: Peaks Project #21 

Post#17 » by trex_8063 » Fri Oct 9, 2015 6:55 pm

E-Balla wrote:I was down on Moses for a long time but after watching some of his old games you can really see how much his ability to score coupled with his ability to outrebound teams (like that game in 82 where he had 21 OREB and Seattle had 21 total rebounds) and dominate head to head matchups (a large advantage he has over a lot of other players is how unstoppable he was one on one with his strength and domination on the boards) was major.

Now of the 3 Chuck is the best scorer and passer well ahead of Moses and Karl,


I don't think Chuck is well ahead of Karl as a passer. Moses yes, Karl no (at least not in the years I'm going with for their respective peaks: '90 for Charles, '97 for Karl). In fact, I think Karl was a better half-court passer than Charles; but Chuck was significantly better in transition, though.

E-Balla wrote:Moses is the best rebounder well ahead of those two,


Yeah, I guess I'd stated that the only thing in which Moses was better than Karl was as an offensive rebounder (by a pretty big margin).....but he's a little better as a defensive rebounder, too.

E-Balla wrote: and if we take 83 Moses he's the best defender of the three (by a distance with Chuck).


I'd disagree Moses was any better than Karl as a defensive player. In fact, outside of his elite defensive rebounding, I kinda don't think he was even as good.

E-Balla wrote: What comes up with Moses to me is how amazing his +/- numbers are offensively in some of those seasons where he didn't play defense.

Here's the (approximate) RAPM of all Sixers from 77-96:
Malone 4.03
Barkley 2.97
B. Jones 2.58
McGinnis 2.10
Erving 1.93
Cheeks 1.75
Hollins 1.20
Toney 1.04
Free 1.03
R. Anderson 0.45
Mix 0.41
Hornacek 0.35
Hawkins 0.28
Dawkins 0.25
Mahorn 0.23
Bibby 0.10


If I'm understanding this correctly, this is over their entire tenure with the franchise, yes?
fwiw, that's going to skew things in Moses' favor against most of the others listed, because his tenure with the Sixers was four seasons, all of them prime and including his peak season.

Barkley, otoh, will have his first two [non-prime] seasons dragging things down a little; ditto Maurice Cheeks and Hersey Hawkins.
Dr. J will have his final 2-3 [late or post-prime] seasons dragging his RAPM down; ditto Bobby Jones.
etc

That said, Moses does have legitimately eye-popping on/off numbers in '83. Although even that is skewed by line-up noise (when your replacement is Earl Cureton, obviously you're going to look pretty good by comparison).

I don't mean this to totally detract from what Moses was. He absolutely is a valid candidate at this point. I'm merely pointing out some contextual details wrt to the impact data presented.
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Re: Peaks Project #21 

Post#18 » by theonlyclutch » Fri Oct 9, 2015 6:59 pm

Narigo wrote:1. 1997 Karl Malone
Going with 1997 Karl Malone over 1990 Charles Barkley and 2006 Kobe Bryant.
Karl Malone is one of the greatest off ball big man ever. Excellent roll man and hes really good at getting in position to score. Pretty good spot up shooter. I think he was utilized incorrectly in the playoffs which is why his playoff numbers are so low.
[b]


How much does the Stockton factor kick in? Per possession wise, Stockton still looked to be at his peak level in '97 and there are good studies that Malone's offensive efficacy takes a bigg hit without Stockton..

Why was he incorrectly utilized in the playoffs? His USG% rose slightly while his AST% fell off a cliff. This suggests a lesser role in initiating the offense and should imply it should be easier to maintain efficacy...
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Re: Peaks Project #21 

Post#19 » by Dr Spaceman » Fri Oct 9, 2015 8:02 pm

theonlyclutch wrote:
Narigo wrote:1. 1997 Karl Malone
Going with 1997 Karl Malone over 1990 Charles Barkley and 2006 Kobe Bryant.
Karl Malone is one of the greatest off ball big man ever. Excellent roll man and hes really good at getting in position to score. Pretty good spot up shooter. I think he was utilized incorrectly in the playoffs which is why his playoff numbers are so low.
[b]


How much does the Stockton factor kick in? Per possession wise, Stockton still looked to be at his peak level in '97 and there are good studies that Malone's offensive efficacy takes a bigg hit without Stockton..

Why was he incorrectly utilized in the playoffs? His USG% rose slightly while his AST% fell off a cliff. This suggests a lesser role in initiating the offense and should imply it should be easier to maintain efficacy...


I'm confused about the "used incorrectly" part as well, as if it's specific to the playoffs that means he was used correctly in the RS, which leads us to 2 possible conclusions:

1. Using Malone correctly precluded playoff efficacy for some reason (in this sense the sentiment is not different from what we already believe)
2. Sloan/other coaches were just bat **** and decided to abandon what made them good for some reason.

Saying he was used incorrectly and then restricting that domain to the playoffs doesn't make sense.
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Re: Peaks Project #21 

Post#20 » by E-Balla » Fri Oct 9, 2015 9:44 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
E-Balla wrote:I was down on Moses for a long time but after watching some of his old games you can really see how much his ability to score coupled with his ability to outrebound teams (like that game in 82 where he had 21 OREB and Seattle had 21 total rebounds) and dominate head to head matchups (a large advantage he has over a lot of other players is how unstoppable he was one on one with his strength and domination on the boards) was major.

Now of the 3 Chuck is the best scorer and passer well ahead of Moses and Karl,


I don't think Chuck is well ahead of Karl as a passer. Moses yes, Karl no (at least not in the years I'm going with for their respective peaks: '90 for Charles, '97 for Karl). In fact, I think Karl was a better half-court passer than Charles; but Chuck was significantly better in transition, though.

My bad I meant both together as in Chuck is way better at passing and scoring together. I don't think he's that much better than Moses as a scorer either they just had different strengths

E-Balla wrote:Moses is the best rebounder well ahead of those two,


Yeah, I guess I'd stated that the only thing in which Moses was better than Karl was as an offensive rebounder (by a pretty big margin).....but he's a little better as a defensive rebounder, too.

I mean it was really less the consistency of it but how he'd just get 10+ so often and really control a game from the boards.

E-Balla wrote: and if we take 83 Moses he's the best defender of the three (by a distance with Chuck).


I'd disagree Moses was any better than Karl as a defensive player. In fact, outside of his elite defensive rebounding, I kinda don't think he was even as good.

Moses wasn't first team All-D for no reason and his defensive +/- on one of the GOAT teams is very impressive. Watching him play he was a great man defender, and was above average to good at everything else (for example he was good at guarding the rim. In 83 he was 10th in blocks. 10th in blocks this year was Brook Lopez. 9th? Drummond). When he actually tried he was a pretty good defender.

E-Balla wrote:What comes up with Moses to me is how amazing his +/- numbers are offensively in some of those seasons where he didn't play defense.

Here's the (approximate) RAPM of all Sixers from 77-96:
Malone 4.03
Barkley 2.97
B. Jones 2.58
McGinnis 2.10
Erving 1.93
Cheeks 1.75
Hollins 1.20
Toney 1.04
Free 1.03
R. Anderson 0.45
Mix 0.41
Hornacek 0.35
Hawkins 0.28
Dawkins 0.25
Mahorn 0.23
Bibby 0.10


If I'm understanding this correctly, this is over their entire tenure with the franchise, yes?
fwiw, that's going to skew things in Moses' favor against most of the others listed, because his tenure with the Sixers was four seasons, all of them prime and including his peak season.

Of course just showing he's impressive.

Barkley, otoh, will have his first two [non-prime] seasons dragging things down a little; ditto Maurice Cheeks and Hersey Hawkins.
Dr. J will have his final 2-3 [late or post-prime] seasons dragging his RAPM down; ditto Bobby Jones.
etc

That said, Moses does have legitimately eye-popping on/off numbers in '83. Although even that is skewed by line-up noise (when your replacement is Earl Cureton, obviously you're going to look pretty good by comparison).

I don't mean this to totally detract from what Moses was. He absolutely is a valid candidate at this point. I'm merely pointing out some contextual details wrt to the impact data presented.

Yeah I get it and I do think the numbers can't be taken at face value. Still they're great.

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