Andrew Wiggins ceiling

[Gibson22]

I know it's a pretty repetitive thread, but anyway, i wanna know, starting his third season, what his ceiling is for you? He may not be a once in a generation player like many tought before the 2014-15 season, but i think the next year he can be an all star (2018 all star game), and then i don't know. I think he can be a pual george type of player, i think that's his ceiling. What do you think?Sorry for any possible language mistake.

[Quotatious]

I think around the level of 2001 Vince Carter, for sure. Maybe more, but '01 Carter would be my guess.

[tsherkin]

I think around the level of 2001 Vince Carter, for sure. Maybe more, but '01 Carter would be my guess.

Would say a little lower, given that he doesn't have VC's handles or passing acumen, one of the more underrated elements of his game. Nor his jumper just yet, either. He looks very promising, but 01 VC was pretty much standing toe-to-toe with Kobe, and I'm not really quite sure about Wiggins just yet. Year 3 will be telling, since he's still quite young. Remember though, Vince was a 40% 3pt shooter, a dirty slasher, very well-rounded player.. and Minny is actively taking the ball out of Wiggins' hands except for post-ups, because they have Lavine and Rubio handling.

[Quotatious]

Would say a little lower, given that he doesn't have VC's handles or passing acumen, one of the more underrated elements of his game. Nor his jumper just yet, either. He looks very promising, but 01 VC was pretty much standing toe-to-toe with Kobe, and I'm not really quite sure about Wiggins just yet. Year 3 will be telling, since he's still quite young. Remember though, Vince was a 40% 3pt shooter, a dirty slasher, very well-rounded player.. and Minny is actively taking the ball out of Wiggins' hands except for post-ups, because they have Lavine and Rubio handling.

Right, but Carter wasn't even in the NBA at the same age as Wiggins is now, he was just getting drafted around age 21-247 days, which Wiggins is as of today (and he was a crappy 3-pt shooter as a rookie, he shot an even lower percentage for 3 than Wiggins in his first two NBA seasons), then made a huge leap (both in terms of shooting and overall game) in his second season, becoming a 26/6/4 guy on above average efficiency.

One thing about Wiggins that is particularly promising, is the fact that he already averaged 7 FTAs per game last season, he was top 10 at that in both of his NBA seasons. Carter was relatively unimpressive in terms of drawing fouls, he peaked at 7.6 FTA in '06, and Wiggins has already tied Carter's second best season in terms of FTA (which was '07). 2015-16 Wiggins was slightly better in terms of drawing fouls than '00 and '01 Carter. Especially in terms of free throws per field goal ratio, Wiggins is much better (he averaged 7 FTA to 16 FGA, Carter in '00 and '01 averaged 6.7 FTA to over 20 FGA).

The reason why I'm focusing so much on FTAs, is that being elite in this regard is so important for wing scorers. It's a way to manufacture easy points, especially when your shots from the field are not falling (and Wiggins is certainly an inconsistent shooter, he'll probably always be a streaky shooter, like most players of this type are - Kobe, T-Mac, Vince etc.).

There are certainly reasons to believe that Wiggins might become a 10 FTA guy in his prime. Even rookie LeBron didn't reach 6 FTA, Wiggins already reached 7. Kobe didn't reach 7 FTA until 2001. That's a good sign for Wiggins. His slashing ability is certainly there, he shot a clearly better percentage at rim in both of his NBA seasons so far, than Vince did in just about any of his NBA seasons (Carter was a surprisingly underwhelming finisher, percentage-wise - I mean you would certainly think he would be an elite finisher with his hops, strength and body control, but it's not the case).

[Mattya]

Well so far this year, including preseason, he has looked a lot more comfortable dribbling the ball and getting to his spots. The next two years will be very telling about him. I think Thibs will be very very beneficial for him though. He hasn't had good defensive coaches his first couple year. Thibs defensive schemes alone should make him look better. He has the tools to be a great defender. It shows in his isolation defense. If he can keep his rebounds up and improve his team defensive rotations that will make a huge difference his the general perception people have of him. I don't think he will every be more than an average floor spacer but I think he is going to be a monster in the paint. He will only be 21 this season and still needs to put weight onto his frame, but still has a lot of success at the rim, working from the post and getting to the line. Crazy to think he would be a senior at Kansas if he stayed in school. It makes me very hopeful looking at what Thibs did with Butler and what he could do with Wiggins. I think his passiveness is extremely overstated.

[Quotatious]

Man, how amazing for the Wolves would it be if Towns turned out to be the next great bigman like Duncan (or at least Ewing), Wiggins turned out to be one of the elite wings (like Carter), and LaVine became a borderline all-star with great 3-pt shooting ability like a Jeff Hornacek? That could be a dynasty in the making, and after over a decade of playoff drought, it would be just an incredible compensation for their fans.

[tsherkin]

Right, but Carter wasn't even in the NBA at the same age as Wiggins is now,

Very true. And Vince didn't have that three as a rook, either. He had a summer where it just suddenly arrived. He was always weird about skill development and stuff, absolutely. Wiggins drives hard, he's very athletic, he's improved some as a defender and everything. I don't really see the opportunity to exercise the playmaking aspect of things and I'm not fond of his handles, but as you say, he's not exactly a wizened vet.

There are certainly reasons to believe that Wiggins might become a 10 FTA guy in his prime. Even rookie LeBron didn't reach 6 FTA, Wiggins already reached 7.

Yes, BUT, rookie Lebron was in the 03-04 season, which was among the worst for perimeter guys getting calls, and this is not that era at all.

Kobe didn't reach 7 FTA until 2001. That's a good sign for Wiggins.

Mmm, but Kobe also didn't take 16 FGA/g like Wiggins until 98-99, averaged 5.8 FTA/g and that was again in that offense-suppressed era that was a little different from now. Kobe's FTr for a perimeter guy in that era was pretty good. Not 03 McGrady or your usual Pierce level, for sure, but it's something to consider as a difference between how those numbers were generated.

I mean, I agree with you: there are things worth noting about Wiggins and he has strong potential. I'm mostly picking at nits, here because I have a healthy degree of respect for what Vince accomplished and the era differences make the number particulars worth passing through some filters to account for those points of difference. That's all.

He's toolsy, and he improved from year 1 to year 2. Remember, though, Vince was a 40% shooter from 3 in his second season, not just his third season. 40.3% from 3 on 2.8 3PA/g in year 2 over 82 games from Vince.

Wiggins shot 2.3 3PA/g as a 2nd-year player and posted 30.0% 3P. Vince was also a slightly better (~ +3%) free throw shooter compared to 2nd-year Wiggins. He is also a pretty weak shooter in general. Past about 10 feet, he isn't very good at making shots of any sort, and that was also true this past season. He's quite good on his short shots and as a finisher in tight around the rim, though. This is a little different than Vince, who was always at least a pretty good mid-range shooter even at UNC, which is one of the reasons I'm more skeptical of Wiggins' development in that department.

So there definitely points of deviation in development, though again some of that might come back to age because Vince wasn't a freshman when he left the NCAA. I don't think they're poised to be the same player. I think Wiggins might have more in common with the SFs from the 90s, actually. He's got a developing post game that's been looking pretty good, he can slash some, he's obviously dirty in transition... He reminds me a little of Demar Derozan, only in a taller, more athletic package and with earlier signs of changing his approach to adapt to NBA strategy and defense.

[Jiminy Glick]

I think that team is going to run into similar problems okc did with westbrook, harden, durant, and ibaka. not enough balls to go around. you have dunn, lavine, wiggins, towns and these guys are going to need to be paid and are all 20+ ppg scorers. This could limit his ceiling. He is going to need to learn to become a good passer, defender, and rebounder.

Depending on his defense i'm going to go with a little less than George's ceiling.

[mademan]

I dont see Wiggins becoming a great wing. I think he maxes out at current Paul George if Thibs can get him to use his great physical tools on defense (PG level, not PG play style). Thats still an awesome ceiling.

[tsherkin]

Man, how amazing for the Wolves would it be if Towns turned out to be the next great bigman like Duncan (or at least Ewing), Wiggins turned out to be one of the elite wings (like Carter), and LaVine became a borderline all-star with great 3-pt shooting ability like a Jeff Hornacek? That could be a dynasty in the making, and after over a decade of playoff drought, it would be just an incredible compensation for their fans.

That would be fairly epic, and I would love watching that unfold over the next dozen years.

[Amare_1_Knicks]

It's so hard to say; Wiggins is so young, and obviously has the talent, athleticism and propensity to become an elite wing on both ends, but it's going to come down to how much he wants to improve. He clearly has all-star level ability in scoring the ball, but everything else is lagging behind at this point.

I don't really see the comparison between Wiggins and PG, either. George's game is so very well rounded, and Wiggins' simply isn't; positionally, a below average rebounder, shooter, defender and he hasn't really shown any ability to handle the ball/distribute the way George has.

He's so young, and anything can happen with his game but he doesn't seem to be developing as fast as other guys who came into the league at the same age. I'd peg him as a 27/6/2 player with decent defense at his peak.

[Joao Saraiva]

Man, how amazing for the Wolves would it be if Towns turned out to be the next great bigman like Duncan (or at least Ewing), Wiggins turned out to be one of the elite wings (like Carter), and LaVine became a borderline all-star with great 3-pt shooting ability like a Jeff Hornacek? That could be a dynasty in the making, and after over a decade of playoff drought, it would be just an incredible compensation for their fans.

Haven't seen much from the Wolves to say, despite watching the 1st half yesterday.

Do you think LAvine's game is somehow close to Horny's? Damn I gotta watch more from those guys. Right now my work schedule is really bad to watch NBA but I'm on vacation next week, so from Tuesday to Saturday I might watch some games.

[Quotatious]

Do you think LAvine's game is somehow close to Horny's? Damn I gotta watch more from those guys. Right now my work schedule is really bad to watch NBA but I'm on vacation next week, so from Tuesday to Saturday I might watch some games.

Nah, honestly I feel like Horny wasn't really a good comparison, I was just trying to think of a shooting guard who had similar size to LaVine and excelled at 3-point shooting. Horny was a lot more crafty and smarter, LaVine is more athletic. I just couldn't think of a good comparison for LaVine. I guess maybe Eric Gordon when he was a Clipper.

[HeartBreakKid]

Lavine is too raw to have much of a comparison, he has a consistent 3 point shot, but the rest of his game doesn't have much of an identity other than being a high flyer.

[cjx]

Wiggins is Ricky Davis 2.0

Watch on YouTube

[tsherkin]

Wiggins is Ricky Davis 2.0

Doesn't have the ball-handling, or the unhealthy dose of "screaming moron" to be Ricky Davis.

[Winsome Gerbil]

The thing is that ability to handle/pass/make others better is a major facet of the truly special guys' repertoires. Without it Wiggins is on a different track, mostly as a scorer. If Thibs can bring out the defense he was supposed to have than you have a very good two-way player and sometimes All-Star. but without the ability to create shots, not a superstar. High end maybe a James Worthy type guy.

[RightToCensor]

It's too early for me to make a decision. I need to see how committed he is to improving his game under Thibs.

His ceiling to me is Jimmy Butler, I don't see Wiggins developing into a legit floor general but he can be a really great #2 for a championship contender.

[Quotatious]

If you guys are saying Wiggins doesn't have the elite handles/vision/passing ability, how about Dominique Wilkins as a comparison? Nique was strictly a volume scorer, basically. I mean - a guy who averages 21 ppg in his second season at age 20/21 like Wiggins did, certainly seems to be on a way to become a high volume scorer later in his career.

[SlowPaced]

His ceiling is DeMar DeRozan that plays great D. And that's a fantastic 2nd option.