DPOY Race

[eminence]

Everyone always discusses and updates the MVP race as the season goes on, but I was thinking maybe we here at the PC board could try to handicap a different race and do the same with the DPOY.

Maybe some sort of panel with posters who are fans of different teams (it's tough to watch enough games from different teams to really get a feel for who a teams defensive leaders are) who vote on a biweekly(? on timeline) update or something?

Have a discussion thread here and post our updates on the General Board?

And yes, I confess, I'm partially interested because Gobert would be doing well, who doesn't love seeing their team do well. But more so than that, it really is hard to get a feel for a players defensive presence from the box-score only, and a couple games a year (like I manage for most teams not Utah), just isn't enough to make up for it.

Anywho, just spitballing, if anybody had any ideas, feel free to throw them out, was just trying to come up with a season long project (RPOY tends to pick up at the end of the season).

Edit: Anyone interested in joining a panel to vote on updates to a DPOY standings race can either post here that they are interested or shoot me a PM, to gauge interest, if we can get a solid group of ~10 people I'd feel pretty good going forward with it

[Texas Chuck]

Dwight Howard has to be mentioned once again. Tho Millsap's presence probably hurts his candidacy.

[LoyalKing]

I'm actually very confident that Dray wins this season.

[lorak]

Dwight Howard has to be mentioned once again. Tho Millsap's presence probably hurts his candidacy.

Or presence of Dwight hurts Millsap candidacy, because so far it's not clear who is better defender in Atlanta.

At the end of the season I think Gobert will be frontrunner for DPOT.

[BdeRegt]

DPOY will come down to Kawhi and Draymond I think. Kawhi is getting knocked right now cuz Spurs team defense is down but he's still best perimeter defender. Draymond might get knocked for warriors team defense being worse as well. Right now I'd have Draymond, Kawhi, Deandre Jordan, Gobert, then Whiteside as top 5 with Howard lurking but don't think he has a chance with voters.


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[BasketballFan7]

DeAndre Jordan wins it if the Clippers can contend for best record.

[trex_8063]

I'd probably be interested in participating in some sort of panel.

My top candidates would include:

Rudy Gobert - I admit I'm a touch biased, he's one of my favorite current players; but his defensive on/off and WOWY (even over the last two years) is pretty damn impressive. By eye-test, I think he's one of the very best candidates for the award.
DeAndre Jordan - if the Clipper defense continues to perform as it has, he'll have a strong case. His on/off presently looks utterly remarkable, though in Jordan's case I think there's a lot of line-up noise involved: he's almost exclusively on the court with CP3, Griffin, and often Luc (all of whom are going to help his defensive on/off).
Hassan Whiteside
Draymond Green - although the Warriors team D has been a touch underwhelming so far, I think it will pick up a bit as the season progresses. I also feel there might be a slight tendency to cast a "make-up vote" in his favor (I sort of think he deserved it in '15).
Kawhi Leonard - Spurs D is down a bit (duh, no Duncan), but I think Kawhi's probably still the best perimeter defender in the game.

Shout out to Dwight Howard (though low minutes and the presence of Millsap hurt his candidacy).

[Ballerhogger]

i think DeAndre will win if the clippers have best record or second best.

[mademan]

Deandre, Dwight, Gobert, Gasol should be leading, imo

[lorak]

Kawhi Leonard - Spurs D is down a bit (duh, no Duncan), but I think Kawhi's probably still the best perimeter defender in the game.

Care to elaborate? Because basically every data point available suggests, that he regressed a lot.

Synergy:

Code: Select all

2017                   2016         
PPP   PERCENTILE       PPP   PERCENTILE   
1,33   4,3             0,69   83,0   isolations
0,72   69,0            0,65   89,7   ballhandler
0,86   42,9            0,50   97,8   rollman
0,97   68,6            0,77   70,9   postup
1,11   25,0            0,88   75,1   spotup
1,10   19,6            0,72   77,5   handoff



SportVu:

Code: Select all

YEAR   DFGA   DFG%   DIFF
2017   9,6   47,4   +3,0
2016   9,4   39,2   -5,6
2015   9,2   44,2   -0,4
2014   9,3   39,9   -5,2


RPM and on/off:

Code: Select all

YEAR   DRPM   DRTG on   DRTG net
2017   1,37   107,2   10,4
2016   3,88   97,2   -4,6
2015   4,59   99,8   -5
2014   2,13   99,7   -5,4


That's actually very bad (RPM uses past seasons as prior, so that screw results here and in reality that value is even lower). And it's not like he has played in lineups with worse defensive players, as basically everyone from Spurs regular rotation has better results:

Code: Select all

DRTG on   DRTG net   PLAYER
107,2   10,4   Kawhi
107,0   7,0   Aldridge
106,8   6,0   Gasol
103,2   -1,6   Mills
96,5   -12,8   Simmons
105,7   2,8   Manu
108,9   7,3   Tony
101,1   -4,5   Lee
104,5   0,8   Anderson
98,3   -7,3   Green


[SlowPaced]

Draymond, Jordan and Gobert are the leading candidates imo, one of these three wins it.

[colts18]

That's actually very bad (RPM uses past seasons as prior, so that screw results here and in reality that value is even lower).

It doesn't use past season data at all.

[eminence]

So far I've got:
eminence (myself)
trex

Would anyone else from this thread like to participate? Going to quote a few of my favorite posters to see if they'd be interested (feel free to mention the project to anybody who might be interested).

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[GSP]

Draymond, Gobert and im not sure how to separate Millsap and Dwight ATM

While Warriors defense has suffered without Bogut i think a factor ppl need to consider more is Iguodala hasnt been the same so far. He simply isnt the same arguably best perimeter defender in the game he was from like 2011-2015. Hes fallen off defensively when you look at what he can provide consistently for an entire game and id say Durant has been the Warriors 2nd best defender behind Draymond so far (tho Iggy is still their best perimeter defender, Durant just has more big like responsibilities on defense now). Hes still a very solid defender but hes lost a step, can still provide elite spurts on defense but its not like the impact he used to have, and i wouldnt be surprised if Mccaw takes alot of his minutes next season.

[Cappy_Smurf]

I'm actually very confident that Dray wins this season.

I am equally confident he will not.

[Freighttrain]

Probably not going to happen but I feel like Tristan Thompson is a great defensive player being overlooked. Not saying he should win but he deserves to be mentioned.
I also think we haven't seen many great teams match-up so far to make a fair judgement on who's deserving of the DPOY.

[SlowPaced]

I'm actually very confident that Dray wins this season.

I am equally confident he will not.

I think he has the voter symphathy on his side this year. Finished 2nd two consecutive years and could easily have won both times.

He may not be the most impactful defender of the season and still win it because of this.

[70sFan]

Right now Dwight is a beast defensively. He won't win it though, not always the best is the most appriciated...

[Bad Gatorade]

So far I've got:
eminence (myself)
trex

Would anyone else from this thread like to participate? Going to quote a few of my favorite posters to see if they'd be interested (feel free to mention the project to anybody who might be interested).

Sure, I'm game.

Green, Millsap, Gobert are really high on my radar ATM. Need to look into Howard a bit more, and if Adams can recapture the form he had in the first 10 or so games (where he was absolutely immense) then he's right up there too. Also interested in seeing if Kawhi can recapture his former magic. Plus, Clippers/Memphis have been real good defensively, although I don't think anybody but Jordan really has a chance there.

Will need a bit more time before I'm feeling a bit more confident, but those are my preliminary hunches.

You've got a real gem in Gobert - I absolutely love him, and I kind of hope he takes out the award this year. Wouldn't be too shocked if he did either.

Any wings on anybody's radar thus far that aren't named Kawhi?

[Cappy_Smurf]

Right now Dwight is a beast defensively. He won't win it though, not always the best is the most appriciated...

He just went up against Gobert 2 days ago. Utah beat the hawks 95-68 with a dominant performance by Rudy.