Age 23 and under team: how far do they go?

[MrPerfect1]

People are insane if they think this team is anywhere near title-worthy. The vast majority of these guys still don't even understand how to contribute positively to a basketball team.

Couldn't disagree more.They would overwhelm teams with their size, talent, athleticism, and depth. This team is basically immune to injuries. Right now DEN is having moderate success killing teams on the boards, this team would be like that on steroids + far superior players at almost every position.

Some young players may struggle as the face of the team in terms of translating that to wins, but this team changes that equation radically since no single player is asked to carry them. Heck, compare this team to the team Anthony Davis carried to the playoffs, it is not even remotely close.

Heck, this possible team the OP listed did not even include players that might want to include like Deangelo Russell. This team would steamroll

You've actually got the issue backwards. Learning to be a star for a player who's been a star his whole life is generally not too difficult. Learning to be a role player is a much, much grander task. It usually takes players a bit to get used to playing against those who are bigger and stronger, but not too often do you hear about players struggling to fit in to their role on the team.

Besides Giannis and Davis, all these guys pretty much suck defensively. Young players generally have awful tunnel vision and are extremely turnover and foul prone. Narrowing the game for them actually makes things more complicated. Danny Green, for example, would be a much better option on the wing for this team than Wiggins, despite Wiggins being leagues more talented.

The little things win basketball games. The stuff that doesn't show up in the box score. This is what guys like Battier and Green and Bogut and Tyson Chandler understand, and it takes a long time for those guys to get there. You have with this team the equivalent of a bunch of chickens running around headless.

One more example to illustrate the point: a couple years ago we had a stat come out that correlated stuff like team rebound % with a player's presence on the floor. Was DeAndre Jordan or Andre Drummond near the top? No. it was Marc Gasol, Andrew Bogut, Tyson chandler te al. The reason is that young athletic freaks generally chase rebounds where they shouldn't, are out of position most of the time, and make up for their bad habits by being super athletic. The guys who get the most rebounds aren't actually the guys who ensure their team prevents the other team from crashing the offensive glass, because boxing out is more important than actually skying for boards.

Every aspect of basketball is like this. There's a reason veteran teams win and young teams don't.

I think you have it backwards. Every player in the NBA has been a star basically his entire life leading up to the NBA. Learning how to become a star in the NBA is much harder., unless you think almost the entire NBA struggles for years and years as they slowly adapt to being a role player now.

Drummond, Embiid, and Adams all suck defensively? That is news to me. The team has at least 5 very good defenders and would have great interior defense. A strong argument could also be made that some of the players could be better on this team defensively than they are on their current teams because they would have great rim protectors behind them . Additionally, many would not be as relied upon to carry the team offensively as they currently are so could devote much more attention and energy to defense. It is common knowledge that defensive intensity tends to decline as offensive usage increases.

Heck, the Cavs won the Title and in the 4th Quarter of Game 7 were playing JR Smith, Kyrie, and Kevin Love. If CLE can win it all playing 3 highly questionable defensive players, something tells me this team could survive.

The little things do not win games as much as the Big things, that is why they are called little things. Battier and Chandler were nice players, but you are crazy if you do not think MA and DAL would have sent them packing in a heartbeat if they could have gotten an Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, or Towns caliber type for either one.

I also disagree that what Green does does not show up by various metrics and stats,

[Dr Spaceman]

One more example to illustrate the point: a couple years ago we had a stat come out that correlated stuff like team rebound % with a player's presence on the floor. Was DeAndre Jordan or Andre Drummond near the top? No. it was Marc Gasol, Andrew Bogut, Tyson chandler te al. The reason is that young athletic freaks generally chase rebounds where they shouldn't, are out of position most of the time, and make up for their bad habits by being super athletic. The guys who get the most rebounds aren't actually the guys who ensure their team prevents the other team from crashing the offensive glass, because boxing out is more important than actually skying for boards.

Every aspect of basketball is like this. There's a reason veteran teams win and young teams don't.

Yeah, and that reason is called draft.

And rebounding study done by Engelmann several years ago (basically RAPM, but for rebounds instead of points) had 21 years old Kevin Love as the best rebounder in the game or Bogut wasn't better than Dwight and DeAndre.

Overall you are making unjustified generalizations here, because while players improve with age (but just to certain point) it doesn't mean some younger can't be better than older* - like in this case, when we don't have some average bigs, but at least 4 all time great talents, who already show high impact and frontline of KAT/KP/AD/Embiid would be by far the best in the game right now.

*
If you still don't see it, then imagine team of Magic, Jordan, Bird, KG, DRob (bench Stockton, Hakeem, Duncan, Pierce) - all 23 years old. Was there at least one year in history, when they wouldn't win it all?

Alright so first of all it would be awesome to see a source on the rebounding study. I was referencing GotBuckets FFAPM, but they stopped paying for their domain.

Regardless, I'm not saying younger players can't be better than older players. I'm saying a team with no veterans is going to suck. Towns is a positive player right now because he's spreading his wings and trying stuff with his offensive game. He's still pretty bad defensively, and wouldn't be doing much in a proposed 3rd option role.

Further, Embiid is straight up bad right now on offense. Box score wise he's arguably having the worst per-minute offensive season in league history. His defense has been impressive for a young player, but I wouldn't put him in the top 7 or so centers defensively.

The overall point here is that these guys, while impressive as young players go, aren't actually impressive as NBA players outside GA AND AD.

The second point is that the rest of the team is going to suck at the roles they're asked to play.

[eminence]

But is extremely strong at PF/C position and they would not only provide very good defense, but also spacing from big men at a level we never seen before. They wouldn't win title, because they don't have good playamaker, but CF is likely possibility. And if you will give them Walton as a coach, then who knows, maybe they would even win it all.

I missed that they'd play in the East, I'll amend my earlier 'prediction' and say they'd probably make the conference finals.

[eminence]

One more example to illustrate the point: a couple years ago we had a stat come out that correlated stuff like team rebound % with a player's presence on the floor. Was DeAndre Jordan or Andre Drummond near the top? No. it was Marc Gasol, Andrew Bogut, Tyson chandler te al. The reason is that young athletic freaks generally chase rebounds where they shouldn't, are out of position most of the time, and make up for their bad habits by being super athletic. The guys who get the most rebounds aren't actually the guys who ensure their team prevents the other team from crashing the offensive glass, because boxing out is more important than actually skying for boards.

Every aspect of basketball is like this. There's a reason veteran teams win and young teams don't.

Yeah, and that reason is called draft.

And rebounding study done by Engelmann several years ago (basically RAPM, but for rebounds instead of points) had 21 years old Kevin Love as the best rebounder in the game or Bogut wasn't better than Dwight and DeAndre.

Overall you are making unjustified generalizations here, because while players improve with age (but just to certain point) it doesn't mean some younger can't be better than older* - like in this case, when we don't have some average bigs, but at least 4 all time great talents, who already show high impact and frontline of KAT/KP/AD/Embiid would be by far the best in the game right now.

*
If you still don't see it, then imagine team of Magic, Jordan, Bird, KG, DRob (bench Stockton, Hakeem, Duncan, Pierce) - all 23 years old. Was there at least one year in history, when they wouldn't win it all?

Alright so first of all it would be awesome to see a source on the rebounding study. I was referencing GotBuckets FFAPM, but they stopped paying for their domain.

Regardless, I'm not saying younger players can't be better than older players. I'm saying a team with no veterans is going to suck. Towns is a positive player right now because he's spreading his wings and trying stuff with his offensive game. He's still pretty bad defensively, and wouldn't be doing much in a proposed 3rd option role.

Further, Embiid is straight up bad right now on offense. Box score wise he's arguably having the worst per-minute offensive season in league history. His defense has been impressive for a young player, but I wouldn't put him in the top 7 or so centers defensively.

The overall point here is that these guys, while impressive as young players go, aren't actually impressive as NBA players outside GA AND AD.

The second point is that the rest of the team is going to suck at the roles they're asked to play.

You think having KCP as the next up and coming elite 'role player' type gives them any chance(Porter too to a lesser extent)?

The 10 man lineup to go with is probably:

Russell/Lavine
KCP/Booker
Giannis/Porter
KP/KAT
Davis/Turner

PG spot is still incredibly weak.

[Dr Spaceman]

I think you have it backwards. Every player in the NBA has been a star basically his entire life leading up to the NBA. Learning how to become a star in the NBA is much harder., unless you think almost the entire NBA struggles for years and years as they slowly adapt to being a role player

They literally do though. For obvious reasons, people pay far more attention to the development of the stars and high level guys and not the role players. Tyson Chandler was in like his 5th season when he finally started to put it together and earn minutes, and he was almost 30 when he became worthy of all star selection, and even older when he won DPOY. JJ Redick was a bench player and defensive sieve in Orlando and has turned himself into one of the premier 3D wings in the league in his early 30s. Kyle Korver was a bench player most of his 20s and had by far his best season in his mid 30s. DeAndre Jordan was another famously late bloomrr. It's only in his age 26 and 27 years that he's really become a solid defender.

The little things do not win games as much as the Big things, that is why they are called little things. Battier and Chandler were nice players, but you are crazy if you do not think MA and DAL would have sent them packing in a heartbeat if they could have gotten an Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, or Towns caliber type for either one.

Right, but on this team you have guys who are only learning to do the big things. And that's a huge problem. We're excited because these guys have shown an aptitude for the big things, but you can't build a team off of only big things and especially not with guys who aren't that good at them yet.

[MrPerfect1]

*
If you still don't see it, then imagine team of Magic, Jordan, Bird, KG, DRob (bench Stockton, Hakeem, Duncan, Pierce) - all 23 years old. Was there at least one year in history, when they wouldn't win it all?

That team would obviously suck, might even miss the playoffs. Would probably have to lose for 4-5 years while they learned the little things

[MrPerfect1]

They literally do though. For obvious reasons, people pay far more attention to the development of the stars and high level guys and not the role players. Tyson Chandler was in like his 5th season when he finally started to put it together and earn minutes, and he was almost 30 when he became worthy of all star selection, and even older when he won DPOY. JJ Redick was a bench player and defensive sieve in Orlando and has turned himself into one of the premier 3D wings in the league in his early 30s. Kyle Korver was a bench player most of his 20s and had by far his best season in his mid 30s. DeAndre Jordan was another famously late bloomrr. It's only in his age 26 and 27 years that he's really become a solid defender.

That is not evidence of them struggling to be role players instead of stars. Instead, that is them taking time to adjust to the speed and pace of the game while also improving their skills. Struggling to become role players means players having a bad attitude or refusing to play within the context of the team while they jack up shots and doing whatever they want. From what I can tell, those players quickly understood what roles they needed to fulfill and then spent years practicing until they were able to become useful players.

The only difference is that on the 23 and Under team, these players have already reached beyond what it took Jordan, Reddick, and Korver years to do.

Right, but on this team you have guys who are only learning to do the big things. And that's a huge problem. We're excited because these guys have shown an aptitude for the big things, but you can't build a team off of only big things and especially not with guys who aren't that good at them yet.

I disagree about them not being good at the big things yet. Davis and Giannis are already putting up All NBA 1st and 2nd Team Caliber numbers. How many teams have 2 players that could qualify for 1st/2nd Team ALL NBA? All this is without even mentioning other super efficient players on the team.

Towns for example has a PER of 24, a very good Win Share and TS%, etc So does Embiid, etc. Heck, Porzingis has a PER of 23 and basically a TS% of 60%. What stats are leading you to conclude that they are not good at the big things yet? It is possible that you are referring to players like Booker with that, although on this team he is far from a core player and would just be used at times to hit wide open 3's

[lorak]

[
Alright so first of all it would be awesome to see a source on the rebounding study. I was referencing GotBuckets FFAPM, but they stopped paying for their domain.

Direct source is no longer avaliable, because Engelmann shut down his site, but I have copy: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-lbtU7C9GKVwO-8ZbRsoF0O1wN8SS1QleXWY63dCfFI/edit?usp=sharing

Regardless, I'm not saying younger players can't be better than older players. I'm saying a team with no veterans is going to suck.

(BTW, Dream Team only lose was vs team with no veterans )

It depends on the coach (and players obviously), because from strategical point of view the game in NBA isn't that different than in NCAA. If someone played organized basketball for several years before draft, he wouldn't suddenly suck at this in NBA. The biggest difference is in physicality, younger players are usually smaller/weaker and that's why they are worse. But here we have some exceptional talents, who aren't worse than most more mature ballers. It's rather other way around and they are better physically than 99% of NBA bigs. They are also smart, high BB IQ guys, who played on winning teams, so I think they wouldn't have problems in playing organized basketball at highest level if such opportunity would happen. (and Irving's performance last year is good example of that.)

Towns is a positive player right now because he's spreading his wings and trying stuff with his offensive game. He's still pretty bad defensively, and wouldn't be doing much in a proposed 3rd option role.

Further, Embiid is straight up bad right now on offense. Box score wise he's arguably having the worst per-minute offensive season in league history. His defense has been impressive for a young player, but I wouldn't put him in the top 7 or so centers defensively.

All true, but the way I see this team is Embiid playing more in a Tyson Chandler role, but with much better spacing effect. I just don't want him to be 1st option on offense (or even 2nd or 3rd) and he wouldn't be allowed to dribble, not even once (to force it I would create penalty - 1k$ for every dribble taken in the game ;]), because that's why he turns the ball over so much. I think he wouldn't have problem with reduced role on offense, because he looks like really mature guy (not to mention his high USG is a result of weak 76ers roster). Davis would start with him, so defense would be at top level, but at the same time he would provide unstoppable offensive force.

There is indeed a problem with PGs under 23, but Giannis is excellent as point forward, so he would be in that role here too (and with his lack of outside the paint shot he fits well with all bigs on that team). That's why I would also start D'Angelo, who i ok 3p shooter, but also is showing in Walton's system, that he can be valuable when offense isn't run by him. As S5 SG I would chose Beal, because I want bench to have better perimeter defense (to balance worse D from Towns) and scoring more focused on bigs.

C - Embiid, KAT
PF - AD, Porzingis
SF - Giannis, Simmons
SG - Beal, KCP
PG - D'Angelo, Smart

That team has spacing, defense and except of Embiid everyone is n a role he plays in real life. Give them Walton as a coach and I don't see anyone winning with them in best of seven.

[Colbinii]

I would play something like this:

C: KAT, Adams
PF: AD, Porzingis
SF: Giannis, Parker
SG: LaVine, KCP
PG: Russell, Smart

The team needs a lot of help defensively with KAT, Giannis, Parker, LaVine, and Russell, which is why I choose Adams, KCP, and Smart.

[penbeast0]

I notice a lot of talk about box score numbers and PER, how did this team stack up last year (or even so far this year though there are obvious sample size problems) in terms of RAPM type impact stats? That's where it should show up if the critique of young players is correct.

[Dr Spaceman]

I notice a lot of talk about box score numbers and PER, how did this team stack up last year (or even so far this year though there are obvious sample size problems) in terms of RAPM type impact stats? That's where it should show up if the critique of young players is correct.

No RAPM this year obviously, but last years rankings:

Porzingis 60th
Giannis 227th
Towns 248th (-1.5 DEF)
Anthony Davis's 299th

EDIT: for good measure,

Beal 333rd
Schroeder 32nd

[JulesWinnfield]

I notice a lot of talk about box score numbers and PER, how did this team stack up last year (or even so far this year though there are obvious sample size problems) in terms of RAPM type impact stats? That's where it should show up if the critique of young players is correct.

No RAPM this year obviously, but last years rankings:

Porzingis 60th
Giannis 227th
Towns 248th (-1.5 DEF)
Anthony Davis's 299th

EDIT: for good measure,

Beal 333rd
Schroeder 32nd

This year been a huge jump for many of these guys though, so even though the sample size is small this seasons data would obviously tell us more when available

Great discussion this thread has created, and interesting how the poll is basically split between title winner and 2nd round exit, with sparse voting elsewhere. That's a pretty big gap in terms of how people see this young squad, which is interesting

[Colbinii]

I notice a lot of talk about box score numbers and PER, how did this team stack up last year (or even so far this year though there are obvious sample size problems) in terms of RAPM type impact stats? That's where it should show up if the critique of young players is correct.

No RAPM this year obviously, but last years rankings:

Porzingis 60th
Giannis 227th
Towns 248th (-1.5 DEF)
Anthony Davis's 299th

EDIT: for good measure,

Beal 333rd
Schroeder 32nd

This year been a huge jump for many of these guys though, so even though the sample size is small this seasons data would obviously tell us more when available

Great discussion this thread has created, and interesting how the poll is basically split between title winner and 2nd round exit, with sparse voting elsewhere. That's a pretty big gap in terms of how people see this young squad, which is interesting

I just can't fathom this team winning a title. The inexperience is just too large to overcome.

[tmorgan]

Love seeing KCP get some respect up in here! He's a smart youngster in some ways, but his bonehead shots are yet another example of a young guy that'll be a better player in the future just by playing SMARTER.

(you should check out KCP sometime, folks, if you haven't already... his court vision opened up this year, he's taking somewhat smarter shots, and his defense is suffocating on a 1-on-1 level, with improvements in the team concept, too)

The Pistons let him gamble on himself, and it looks like it'll pay off for KCP. Feeling a 4/100 coming for him next summer.

[Jiminy Glick]

Look at it is like this, just take Giannis, Davis, and Towns as the big 3 of the team. So if they play the Cavs that means that Love and Thompson are going to have to guard Davis and Towns. Which means Davis and Towns are going to go off. It will be too much to handle down low. Same with going against GS. Green and Pachulia would have to guard Davis and Towns, they would go off. Then you have Drummond coming off the bench with full energy going against backup centers. That right there is enough to win the championship. Then you also have Porzingis, Wiggins, Parker, Porter, and Beal. It is just too much skill.


For guards I would look at guys like Dunn and Smart to play defense.

[H2tObes]

Wow, people really think this team is a 2nd round exit? Age/experience be damned, from top to bottom this would easily be the most talented roster the NBA has ever seen. You'll get killed by the starting lineup then get absolutely slaughtered by the GOAT bench. This team is also full of physical freaks that no defense can guard, and their unguardableness will only feed off eachother. Give them half a season to mesh, a good coach, and some time to figure out a rotation and the league would be screwed.

Warriors will be able to keep up if they are playing up to standards, but it would be a close series. Warriors big 4 would all need to play 40+ minutes the entire series, because once the benches come in no one will be able to keep up