What do advanced stats say about John Stockton?

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Re: What do advanced stats say about John Stockton? 

Post#41 » by Colbinii » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:13 am

tone wone wrote:Am I the only one who thinks Chris Paul; not Nash; is the better comparison to Stockton?


I like the comparison more than Nash as well. Chris Paul is still the best scorer of the bunch and man to man defender. I believe Stockton was a better off-ball defender, but I haven't seen nearly as much Stockton as I have CP3. Stockton/Nash make a better comparison in terms of all-time rankings, or at least they will when it is all said and done because CP3 will be a lot closer to Top 15/20 than 25/30 like Nash/Stockton.
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Re: What do advanced stats say about John Stockton? 

Post#42 » by mysticOscar » Tue Jan 10, 2017 7:11 am

Just curious...for those that put a lot of weight on longevity...shouldnt stockton be close to your no 1 as a pg of all time?
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Re: What do advanced stats say about John Stockton? 

Post#43 » by Lost92Bricks » Tue Jan 10, 2017 7:22 am

He was so ridiculously consistent that it's hard to even say when he peaked. Was it in the late 80's, early 90's or mid 90's? Kinda similar to Kobe.
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Re: What do advanced stats say about John Stockton? 

Post#44 » by oaktownwarriors87 » Tue Jan 10, 2017 7:31 am

If Steve Nash is better than John Stockton than Kevin Love is better than Tim Duncan.

lorak wrote:
Quotatious wrote:
lorak wrote:
Nash was a star even before rule changes. Both by advanced stats and "common sense" (ASG, all NBA teams).

Mavericks Nash wasn't as good as prime Stockton, though. I would say that Phoenix Nash with handchecking wouldn't be as good as Stockton, too (because his offense would be less impactful with handchecking, and he's nowhere near Stockton defensively).


Nash was already all NBA level, maybe even elite, on offense since around 2000. And I think you are well aware that the way he was used in Dallas limited his impact, so he was that good even before rule changes, he just didn't have opportunity to show it.


He was the staring PG on a team with one dominant scoring PF. How did he have less opportunity than Stockton?

Notice that Nash's best seasons barely crack Stockton's top 10.

Nash's Top 10 VORP: 4.0, 3.9, 3.7, 3.1, 2.6, 2.6, 2.5, 2.4, 2.0, 1.6
John's Top 10 VORP: 5.5, 5.4, 5.3, 5.0, 4.8, 4.5, 4.3, 4.3, 4.2, 3.8

Nash's Top 10 BPM: 3.8, 3.7, 3.3, 2.3, 2.2, 1.8, 1.7, 1.6, 1.0, 0.6
John's Top 10 BPM: 5.5, 5.1, 4.8, 4.4, 4.4, 4.2, 3.9, 3.9, 3.9, 3.7

Nash's Top 10 WS/48: .225, .212, .206, .203, .181, .178, .169, .167, .162, .153
John's Top 10 WS/48: .238, .238, .236, .226, .217, .217, .216, .215, .214, .214

Nash's Top 10 PER: 23.8, 23.3, 22.6, 22.0, 21.6, 20.8, 20.7, 20.5, 20.3, 19.6
John's Top 10 PER: 23.9, 23.4, 23.3, 23.2, 22.9, 22.8, 22.5, 22.4, 22.3, 22.1

Advanced stats heavily favor Stockton. He was better on both sides of the floor, and if you stick him in Nash's era and he would be even more dominant.

Fun Fact: John Stockton lead the NBA in Assist Percentage for 15 years.
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Re: What do advanced stats say about John Stockton? 

Post#45 » by krii » Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:29 pm

For me the best thing one can say on John Stockton is Frank Layden's 'I think of him as THE Point Guard'. His advanced stats looks ridiculous, especially whilst taking into account how long his career was. What is even more remarkable is that he was a durable PG in an athletic NBA of the 1980s and 1990s. He wasn't as athletic as any of the top 50 career NBA players (besides Nash), hence his numbers look even more impressive.

THE Point Guard.

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Re: What do advanced stats say about John Stockton? 

Post#46 » by 90sgoat » Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:33 pm

Yes exactly, you look up point guard in the dictionary and you see John Stockton and you look up power forward and you see Karl Malone :D Funny that.
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Re: What do advanced stats say about John Stockton? 

Post#47 » by Johnlac1 » Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:11 pm

krii wrote:For me the best thing one can say on John Stockton is Frank Layden's 'I think of him as THE Point Guard'. His advanced stats looks ridiculous, especially whilst taking into account how long his career was. What is even more remarkable is that he was a durable PG in an athletic NBA of the 1980s and 1990s. He wasn't as athletic as any of the top 50 career NBA players (besides Nash), hence his numbers look even more impressive.

THE Point Guard.

I guess I'll have to disagree with the "not as athletic" as the other top fifty players statement that I read constantly about Stockton. No, he wasn't extra strong even though he did lift weights. But he was fast, quick, had excellent body control, and was a quick jumper though not a great leaper.
When he was a rookie some of his teammates thought he was almost as fast as Jazz starting pg Ricky Green who at the time was regarded by many as being the fastest player in the league. You don't accumulate the kinds of stats Stockton amassed by having average speed and quickness especially in the steals department.
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Re: What do advanced stats say about John Stockton? 

Post#48 » by Ryoga Hibiki » Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:33 pm

Johnlac1 wrote:I guess I'll have to disagree with the "not as athletic" as the other top fifty players statement that I read constantly about Stockton. No, he wasn't extra strong even though he did lift weights. But he was fast, quick, had excellent body control, and was a quick jumper though not a great leaper.
When he was a rookie some of his teammates thought he was almost as fast as Jazz starting pg Ricky Green who at the time was regarded by many as being the fastest player in the league. You don't accumulate the kinds of stats Stockton amassed by having average speed and quickness especially in the steals department.

And he had very big and strong hands, not to be underrated.
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Re: What do advanced stats say about John Stockton? 

Post#49 » by krii » Tue Jan 10, 2017 4:14 pm

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:
Johnlac1 wrote:I guess I'll have to disagree with the "not as athletic" as the other top fifty players statement that I read constantly about Stockton. No, he wasn't extra strong even though he did lift weights. But he was fast, quick, had excellent body control, and was a quick jumper though not a great leaper.
When he was a rookie some of his teammates thought he was almost as fast as Jazz starting pg Ricky Green who at the time was regarded by many as being the fastest player in the league. You don't accumulate the kinds of stats Stockton amassed by having average speed and quickness especially in the steals department.

And he had very big and strong hands, not to be underrated.

I have to add that I didn't wanted to state that Stockton was in any way non-athletic. You can't be top 50 player without some specific athleticism, specific for certain positions of course. However, if we look at the list of 50 greatest players in the history of the league, regardless of whom you would like to put there, I could see only one other player that wasn't as much freak of nature as the rest of the list, and it was Nash. The other player to make this list could be one of the 50's/60's/70's stars but the game of basketball wasn't about purely athleticism back then.

Stockton was really gifted: he was quick, he had a really amazing reflex (sometimes really underappreciated) and his durability was legendary. But was he as gifted as, say, Jordan? Or Shaq? Or Magic?
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Re: What do advanced stats say about John Stockton? 

Post#50 » by Quotatious » Tue Jan 10, 2017 6:05 pm

krii wrote:Stockton was really gifted: he was quick, he had a really amazing reflex (sometimes really underappreciated) and his durability was legendary. But was he as gifted as, say, Jordan? Or Shaq? Or Magic?

Even just comparing him to other elite point guards, he's nowhere near guys like Westbrook, peak Rose or KJ athletically. Those guys had/have an insane first step and ability to beat any defender of the dribble, even without screens. Stockton was nothing more than a solid athlete, but he was extremely skilled and smart. His fundamentals were absolutely flawless.
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Re: What do advanced stats say about John Stockton? 

Post#51 » by Chicago76 » Tue Jan 10, 2017 7:39 pm

90sgoat wrote:Re: Nash/Stockton

Stockton was a small guard who cosistently shot 50+% from the floor, a lot of that from pick and roll mid range jumpers.

Steve Nash had two seasons of 18ppg before removal of hand check/def 3 seconds, hardly stellar scoring numbers. averages 14ppg for his career.

Stockton has 3 seasons of his career averaging 17ppg with handchecking.

Stocktons shoots for career: 51/38/82

Steve Nash shoots for career: 49/43/90

Stockton was still a productive player 10/8 with 2spg on 50% as a 40 year old.

It's safe to say Nash is the better shooter. It's also safe to stay Stockton is the better passer, led the league in assists 9 years in a row.

More importantly, you will find nothing but praise from Stockton's contemporaries like Jordan and Barkley about how tough and scrappy a defender Stockton was.


Looking at this controlling for time/pace: Nash had a couple of seasons with Dallas pre-hand check rule alteration where he was a 27 pt/100 guy on the number one offense in the league. Stockton was more of a 22 to 23 per 100 player. It may not seem like much, but when you do a quick br season scan of pgs at 27-28 years old, there is a big difference between scoring creation of guys in the 25-29 pt/100 poss range (Nash) and guys in the 20-25 range (Stockton).

There are only two things Nash has over Stockton:
1) he is offensively more "slippery" with the ball. His body control and ability to get an inch of daylight for his shot through body leans, change of pace, a single step, etc, is excellent as his ability to use different types of shots (floaters and leaners) to get shots to the rim cleanly.

2) he is probably a bit better and executing the spectacular pass for an assist. Scorers in soccer are often described as great scorers of goals or scorers of great goals. The former is more about volume and consistence and the latter about creating something from nothing. Nash was a bit better at being a passer of great assists (although Stockton is certainly well up that list).

Stockton has everything else though: better D by a mile. And he's most critically a greater "assister" than Nash was. The gap there is much wider than the Nash-Stockton gap in assisting on "great assists". Any advantage Nash has in scoring creation for himself is far outweighed by Stockton's incredible passing production. Throw in the longevity and durability and its not even close.

I agree that they aren't particularly close comparisons stylistically. Nash to me is much more similar to an optimized Mark Price while Stockton is Chris Paul with much more limited shot creation.
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Re: What do advanced stats say about John Stockton? 

Post#52 » by 90sgoat » Tue Jan 10, 2017 7:45 pm

I'm pretty sure John Stockton in real life would be the strongest guy you knew.

Clearly he was not a high jumper, but he ran around screens set by 250-300lbs centers game in and out, plus he set some tough screens himself. Easy to forget that even smaller guys in this league are top tier athletic compared to the general public. Stockton is strong and tough and probably would have made a fine wrestler or boxer.
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Re: What do advanced stats say about John Stockton? 

Post#53 » by Daddy 801 » Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:59 pm

Stockton is the most underrated player of all time in my opinion.

He is better than Nash and I think the only reason people are comparing the two is they are both white and not as athletic (though both insanely athletic by normal human standards) as many other NBA stars. Without thinking about it too hard Nash is probably 6-8th best PG while Stockton is 2-4th.

I agree with others that said Stockton is closer to CP3. At times Steph has some Stockton type moves. You better believe Stephs dad sat him down and had him watch some Stockton tape.

Stocktons defense is underrated. He took charges from humans that were giants in comparison. And real charges. Not these fake ass charges players often take today followed by a flop.

Had Stockton played in this era I believe he would have practiced 3 point shooting more often and he would of had a green light to shoot and would have had even more impressive numbers.

Sloan is a legend, but some of his stubbornness might have (high probability) hindered and/or held Stockton back from being a scoring PG. Which is crazy to think about. It also probably helped Stockton with his assist numbers so give credit to Sloan for that. So he would probably have more points and less assists had Sloan not been the coach. But they might also have won a championship had Stockton been more of a shooter.

Stocktons longevity is also underrated. As a GM that would be a godsend.

If you are playing the game of alltime starting 5 most/some people pick Magic, Oscar, Isiah, or Curry over Stockton. I wouldn't argue with that as these guys are all legends. Personally I take Stockton 3rd on a PG list, but I count LeBron as a PG, and I expect Curry to pass Stockton eventually......

But if you were playing a game of drafting the top players in history between a few buddies to field the greatest 15 man roster you could have on your team for the next 10-20 years Stockton would be drafted MUCH sooner over players whom are considered better than him. His longevity is insane. Also, attitude matters and he was a silent assassin. The only player I have seen in my life that comes close to Stockton in terms of temperament is Timmy. Stockton is a coaches dream come true.
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Re: What do advanced stats say about John Stockton? 

Post#54 » by Johnlac1 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 4:52 pm

Quotatious wrote:
krii wrote:Stockton was really gifted: he was quick, he had a really amazing reflex (sometimes really underappreciated) and his durability was legendary. But was he as gifted as, say, Jordan? Or Shaq? Or Magic?

Even just comparing him to other elite point guards, he's nowhere near guys like Westbrook, peak Rose or KJ athletically. Those guys had/have an insane first step and ability to beat any defender of the dribble, even without screens. Stockton was nothing more than a solid athlete, but he was extremely skilled and smart. His fundamentals were absolutely flawless.

Watch some clips of Stockton whipping around M. Jordan , and then tell me he didn't have a tremendous first step. Watch clips of Stockton driving to the basket and contorting his body to make the shot on bigger opponents. Then get back to me.
Stockton was a tremendous athlete. If the above mentioned guys are better speciments (and they might be), it's not by a lot.
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Re: What do advanced stats say about John Stockton? 

Post#55 » by Quotatious » Wed Jan 11, 2017 5:00 pm

Johnlac1 wrote:
Quotatious wrote:
krii wrote:Stockton was really gifted: he was quick, he had a really amazing reflex (sometimes really underappreciated) and his durability was legendary. But was he as gifted as, say, Jordan? Or Shaq? Or Magic?

Even just comparing him to other elite point guards, he's nowhere near guys like Westbrook, peak Rose or KJ athletically. Those guys had/have an insane first step and ability to beat any defender of the dribble, even without screens. Stockton was nothing more than a solid athlete, but he was extremely skilled and smart. His fundamentals were absolutely flawless.

Watch some clips of Stockton whipping around M. Jordan , and then tell me he didn't have a tremendous first step. Watch clips of Stockton driving to the basket and contorting his body to make the shot on bigger opponents. Then get back to me.
Stockton was a tremndous athlete. If the above mentioned guys are better speciments (and they might be), it's not by a lot.

There's a reason why the biggest criticism Stockton got during his career was his inability to consistently take over games when needed, and that's because he didn't have the athletic explosiveness to beat defenders off the dribble consistently without screens, despite the fact that he was an elite ball-handler. Stockton with Westbrook's or Kevin Johnson's athleticism would probably be a top 10 player of all-time, and it would be extremely close between Stockton and Magic Johnson/Oscar Robertson as far as who was the best point guard ever.

If Westbrook is the gold standard for athleticism at the point guard position, A+ grade, then Stockton was just B-. There's a clear and big gap athletically between them (Stockton was smarter and a lot better shooter, though).
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Re: What do advanced stats say about John Stockton? 

Post#56 » by Dr Positivity » Wed Jan 11, 2017 6:27 pm

For me two of the most overrated things are

- Points per game
- Ring counting/Rings as the man counting

If you consider this Stockton's case looks great. For a PG his profile is perfect outside of points - assists, efficiency, defense, longevity. No rings. Plausible his value was above where he is ever ranked
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Re: What do advanced stats say about John Stockton? 

Post#57 » by krii » Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:34 pm

Dr Positivity wrote:For me two of the most overrated things are

- Points per game
- Ring counting/Rings as the man counting

If you consider this Stockton's case looks great. For a PG his profile is perfect outside of points - assists, efficiency, defense, longevity. No rings. Plausible his value was above where he is ever ranked

Well maybe he wasn't a scorer but 15+ seasons with at least 10ppg and over 19k total points accounts for top 50 ever (in points scored). He wasn't a point terminator but on average he produced 13ppg + 10.5 apg (20ppg - 31.5ppg) = 23 - 32 points produced every game. For 19 seasons. Plus steals and insanely good a/to ratio. Pure numbers.
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Re: What do advanced stats say about John Stockton? 

Post#58 » by SDChargers#1 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:48 pm

The only argument that Nash had over Stockton was team offensive ratings and slightly higher volume scoring. Literally everything else can be chalked up as advantage Stockton.

Passing, Efficiency (yes, efficiency), longevity (which makes it a no comparison in my mind), defense, team success, etc.
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Re: What do advanced stats say about John Stockton? 

Post#59 » by Johnlac1 » Fri Jan 13, 2017 5:30 pm

Quotatious wrote:
Johnlac1 wrote:
Quotatious wrote:Even just comparing him to other elite point guards, he's nowhere near guys like Westbrook, peak Rose or KJ athletically. Those guys had/have an insane first step and ability to beat any defender of the dribble, even without screens. Stockton was nothing more than a solid athlete, but he was extremely skilled and smart. His fundamentals were absolutely flawless.

Watch some clips of Stockton whipping around M. Jordan , and then tell me he didn't have a tremendous first step. Watch clips of Stockton driving to the basket and contorting his body to make the shot on bigger opponents. Then get back to me.
Stockton was a tremndous athlete. If the above mentioned guys are better speciments (and they might be), it's not by a lot.

There's a reason why the biggest criticism Stockton got during his career was his inability to consistently take over games when needed, and that's because he didn't have the athletic explosiveness to beat defenders off the dribble consistently without screens, despite the fact that he was an elite ball-handler. Stockton with Westbrook's or Kevin Johnson's athleticism would probably be a top 10 player of all-time, and it would be extremely close between Stockton and Magic Johnson/Oscar Robertson as far as who was the best point guard ever.

If Westbrook is the gold standard for athleticism at the point guard position, A+ grade, then Stockton was just B-. There's a clear and big gap athletically between them (Stockton was smarter and a lot better shooter, though).
"There's a clear and big gap athletically between them." I respectfully disagree. Did you see the clips of him beating Jordan? The athletic gap is not as big as you think. Stockton's game was not going one on one. If he had decided to be that kind of guard, he could have done so. But that wasn't in his genes.
I''ve already stated that I thought he should have tried to score more. But I think he should have done so by taking more three pointers given his excellent pct. when he decided to shoot more threes. But still not enough. He, like a number of other players from his era, should have shot it every time he was open.

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