Greatest rookie season of all-time project - #7

[Quotatious]

Magic Johnson won the voting in thread #6 by a dominant 17-7 margin over Oscar Robertson

List so far:

1. Lew Alcindor (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar) 1969-70
2. David Robinson 1989-90
3. Wilt Chamberlain 1959-60
4. Larry Bird 1979-80
5. Tim Duncan 1997-98
6. Magic Johnson 1979-80

Who's going to be #7?

[Doctor MJ]

1. Oscar Robertson
2. Shaquille O'Neal
3. Artis Gilmore

First it occurs to me that others are mentioning Arvydas Sabonis and Connie Hawkins, and I feel uncomfortable with them as they were in professional leagues before they were in the ABA/NBA and joined the league with experience-acquired wherewithal. I won't refuse to consider them if they are going to count, but I realized that to this point I was largely going down my list, and that these two guys are in a separate category for me.

So then, with these 3, my reasoning with reference to this dilemma:

Oscar is probably the most mature rookie we've ever seen who came straight out of the amateur ranks, and I would probably consider him the best offensive rookie in history.

Gilmore to me is the clear ABA top candidate over Spencer Hayward. He was in a more mature league playing in a way more conducive to actually winning titles, and you can't claim his statistical dominance is anything other than top tier.

I don't think rookie Gilmore vs ABA debut Connie is so clear cut, but as stated, I don't really think about Connie as a rookie.

Gilmore vs Shaq is interesting. What I've come to conclude about Gilmore is he really was at his very best younger than most because he lacked the comfort with his body to develop a more bold veteran game. He was very good for a very long time, but he's not a top tier all-time great for this reason. And so debating rookie Gilmore vs Shaq, you're largely talking about a battle of raw physical talents, and I'd side with Shaq there.

[THKNKG]

1. Oscar Robertson
2. Shaquille O'Neal
3. Artis Gilmore

First it occurs to me that others are mentioning Arvydas Sabonis and Connie Hawkins, and I feel uncomfortable with them as they were in professional leagues before they were in the ABA/NBA and joined the league with experience-acquired wherewithal. I won't refuse to consider them if they are going to count, but I realized that to this point I was largely going down my list, and that these two guys are in a separate category for me.

So then, with these 3, my reasoning with reference to this dilemma:

Oscar is probably the most mature rookie we've ever seen who came straight out of the amateur ranks, and I would probably consider him the best offensive rookie in history.

Gilmore to me is the clear ABA top candidate over Spencer Hayward. He was in a more mature league playing in a way more conducive to actually winning titles, and you can't claim his statistical dominance is anything other than top tier.

I don't think rookie Gilmore vs ABA debut Connie is so clear cut, but as stated, I don't really think about Connie as a rookie.

Gilmore vs Shaq is interesting. What I've come to conclude about Gilmore is he really was at his very best younger than most because he lacked the comfort with his body to develop a more bold veteran game. He was very good for a very long time, but he's not a top tier all-time great for this reason. And so debating rookie Gilmore vs Shaq, you're largely talking about a battle of raw physical talents, and I'd side with Shaq there.

Can you substantiate your claims on Oscar? I pretty much agree on Gilmore = Shaq, but I could put Oscar above or below, depending on the arguments made.

[Gregoire]

1.Jordan
2,Shaq
3.Oscar

[Dr Positivity]

1. Oscar Robertson
2. Michael Jordan
3. Artis Gilmore

Jordan vs Oscar vs Shaq

Jordan: 2nd in WS, 2nd in VORP, 2nd in PER, 6th in MVP vote

Oscar: 4th in WS, 3rd in PER, 5th in MVP vote

Shaq: 12 in WS, 13th in VORP, 7th in MVP vote

Shaq scores at a lower volume than Jordan and Oscar, passes less and because of turnovers is less efficient (Shaq has 108 ORTG, Jordan 118, Oscar's would be through the roof). Jordan and Oscar looks hands down better on offense. The case for him would be on defense I guess.

Some people are dropping Jordan for team impact since he's ballhoggy early in his career, but while his results look mediocre compared to impact of someone like Bird, it's not like he's Walt Bellamy. The Bulls went from 2nd worst record in the league to 7th seed. The improvement of the Royals during Oscar's season from by far the worst team to 2nd worst team impresses me less. As for Shaq because his team was worse the year before and a couple wins better than Jordan after, his year to year improvement is better, but in my opinion picking out a few wins difference between players improvement and saying it's because Shaq is better than Jordan, is missing that there is a lot of complicated variables that goes into basketball that may not have anything to do with them, it's the same reason I am passionately against using in/out when players are injured as useful (that's before considering that raw +/- even over a full season is mostly useless, let alone fractions of a season). The macro improvement like the Celtics improvement with Bird or the Magic taking the Lakers to contention or the obvious non impact of Bellamy I can buy, but overinterpreting minor differences when it's a team sport played on both a physical and emotional level and saying it's caused by the star player seems like a mistake to me. On the whole there's not that many guys left who clean the floor with MJ when it comes to improving their team, one of them is getting little support (Unseld) right now.

[THKNKG]

1. Oscar Robertson
2. Michael Jordan
3. Artis Gilmore

Jordan vs Oscar vs Shaq

Jordan: 2nd in WS, 2nd in VORP, 2nd in PER, 6th in MVP vote

Oscar: 4th in WS, 3rd in PER, 5th in MVP vote

Shaq: 12 in WS, 13th in VORP, 7th in MVP vote

Shaq scores at a lower volume than Jordan and Oscar, passes less and because of turnovers is less efficient (Shaq has 108 ORTG, Jordan 118, Oscar's would be through the roof). Jordan and Oscar looks hands down better on offense. The case for him would be on defense I guess.

Some people are dropping Jordan for team impact since he's ballhoggy early in his career, but while his results look mediocre compared to impact of someone like Bird, it's not like he's Walt Bellamy. The Bulls went from 2nd worst record in the league to 7th seed. The improvement of the Royals during Oscar's season from by far the worst team to 2nd worst team impresses me less. As for Shaq because his team was worse the year before and a couple wins better than Jordan after, his year to year improvement is better, but in my opinion picking out a few wins difference between players improvement and saying it's because Shaq is better than Jordan, is missing that there is a lot of complicated variables that goes into basketball that may not have anything to do with them, it's the same reason I am passionately against using in/out when players are injured as useful (that's before considering that raw +/- even over a full season is mostly useless, let alone fractions of a season). The macro improvement like the Celtics improvement with Bird or the Magic taking the Lakers to contention or the obvious non impact of Bellamy I can buy, but overinterpreting minor differences when it's a team sport played on both a physical and emotional level and saying it's caused by the star player seems like a mistake to me. On the whole there's not that many guys left who clean the floor with MJ when it comes to improving their team, one of them is getting little support (Unseld) right now.

Just a heads up, you have Gilmore listed as a vote, but you talked about Shaq.

[Dr Positivity]

If ABA = NBA, Gilmore would be in already as 1st in WS, 1st in PER, great team improvement (44 to 68 Ws), he was ABA rookie Wilt or Robinson. However just how good was 72 ABA? Or more importantly how as the big man competition? Could it have led to inflated rebounding and block numbers for example?

Does anyone have a take on 72 Gilmore vs 75 and 76 Gilmore? Is his statistical decline because he lost something physically (even though he never got injured), or is it because the league got better? Gilmore doesn't seem to be that different a guy statistically his first couple NBA seasons than he was his last few ABA seasons. The question is whether rookie Gilmore is actually better than either of those two. Until proven otherwise I prefer to guess that 26-29 Gilmore was probably a better player in his late 20s than he was as a rookie.

[Quotatious]

1.Jordan
2,Shaq
3.Oscar

Explanations are needed.

[THKNKG]

If ABA = NBA, Gilmore would be in already as 1st in WS, 1st in PER, great team improvement (44 to 68 Ws), he was ABA rookie Wilt or Robinson. However just how good was 72 ABA? Or more importantly how as the big man competition? Could it have led to inflated rebounding and block numbers for example?

Does anyone have a take on 72 Gilmore vs 75 and 76 Gilmore? Is his statistical decline because he lost something physically (even though he never got injured), or is it because the league got better? Gilmore doesn't seem to be that different a guy statistically his first couple NBA seasons than he was his last few ABA seasons. The question is whether rookie Gilmore is actually better than either of those two. Until proven otherwise I prefer to guess that 26-29 Gilmore was probably a better player in his late 20s than he was as a rookie.

Personally, I'm going to retract my campaigning for Gilmore until later on. He had similar stats to Shaq his rookie season, but he was arguably not even the best player on his own team. He had Dan Issel on his team that year. Though they had a big W/L turnaround (which would be expected due to those 2 being together - similar to Duncan/DRob situation), the year before during Issel's rookie season they performed better. They went to the finals and took it to game 7, whereas in Gilmore's rookie year, they didn't come close to that. Rebound numbers were inflated (similar to Kareem's rookie year where he had 16 or so per game).

[LA Bird]

1. Michael Jordan
2. Oscar Robertson
3. Artis Gilmore

Jordan and Oscar were both off the charts statistically and were in prime form pretty much from the beginning of their career.
I missed the last few rounds of votes but I thought they could have gone before Magic/Duncan as well but were too heavily penalized for poor team performance. The Bulls' 4.2 SRS increase in Jordan's rookie year is comparable to just about anybody left except Gilmore/Shaq so it's not like he was an empty stats rookie (sorry Bellamy). Oscar led Cincinnati to the #1 offense and is the GOAT offensive rookie IMO. However, their trash defense and a relatively small overall team improvement (-5.9 to -3.0 SRS) is slightly concerning. I might change my mind on the 3rd spot but Jordan/Oscar are locked in for me.

Doubts about the quality of ABA remains (Zelmo Beaty looked like a god when he moved to ABA just the previous year) but at this point, I feel more confident voting for Gilmore than any of the other rookie bigs primarily due to his massive defensive impact. Shaq had the best shotblocking season of his career and the opponent eFG% decrease to go with it but it seems like his overall defense is still worse than Gilmore's and I am not sure the offensive gap is large enough to offset that difference.

[Clyde Frazier]

Vote:

71-72 Artis Gilmore (ABA)
84-85 Michael Jordan
92-93 Shaquille O'Neal

From prior thread:

71-72 Artis Gilmore (ABA)

Watch on YouTube

RS: 84 GP, 23.8 PPG, 17.8 RPG, 2.7 APG, 5 BPG, 62% TS, .259 WS/48

PS: 6 GP, 21.8 PPG, 17.7 RPG, 4.2 APG, 60.8% TS, .168 WS/48

When Gilmore entered the ABA, it was the start of its 5th season, so the competition was solid relative to the early years of the league. Gilmore took the league by storm and the Colonels made a substantial improvement vs. the season prior (68-16 vs. 44-40). Gilmore was the only major addition to the team. They ended up running into a hot nets team in the playoffs, who would go on to the ABA finals that year, losing to the pacers in 6 games.

Gilmore was extremely mobile and skilled for his size at such a young age. You can see the fluidity on both ends with good instincts and body control. He used his size very well to create space, but it was more about agility than just sheer power. Far more athletic than you'd expect from someone his size as a finisher. He could go up in one quick motion, absorb contact, and finish off balance without being right at the rim.

To add on gilmore, micahclay provided some key matchups vs. HOF bigs when the ABA faced the NBA in exhibitions:

I looked at the games that Gilmore played in his rookie season against the NBA, and I'll post those below.

September 22, 1971
Baltimore Bullets (NBA) vs. Kentucky Colonels (ABA)
at Louisville, KY
13,821 in attendance at Freedom Hall
Gilmore 16 pts & 16 rebounds, Issel 24 pts; Monroe DNP
COLONELS 111
Bullets 85

October 8, 1971
Milwaukee Bucks (NBA) vs. Kentucky Colonels (ABA)
at Louisville, KY
Over 18,000 in attendance at Freedom Hall
Abdul-Jabbar 30 pts, 20 rebounds & 3 blocked shots; Dandridge 26 pts; Issel 34 pts; Gilmore 18 pts, 16 rebounds & 5 blocked shots BUCKS 99
Colonels 93

October 9, 1971
New York Knicks (NBA) vs. Kentucky Colonels (ABA)
at Louisville, KY
12,238 in attendance at Freedom Hall; Gilmore 24 pts; Issel 19 pts; Frazier 21 pts; Reed 11 pts
KNICKS 112
Colonels 100

Even with Gilmore picking up steam a bit, i feel like his candidacy is struggling because we only know so much. I've tried doing more research to see what I can uncover, but there just isn't much out there. I get the questioned strength of the league, but it was far from an "amateur" league going into its 5th season. It had 11 teams vs. the NBA's 17, and star power was coming through more and more each year. There has to be a point at which we take what he did at face value for that era because it was damn impressive.

84-85 Michael Jordan

RS: 82 GP, 28.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 5.9 APG, 2.4 SPG, .8 BPG, 59.2% TS, 118 ORTG, .213 WS/48

PS: 4 GP, 29.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 8.5 APG, 2.8 SPG, 1 BPG, 56.5% TS, 120 ORTG, .198 WS/48

92-93 Shaquille O'Neal

RS: 81 GP, 23.4 PPG, 13.9 RPG, 1.9 APG, .7 SPG, 3.5 BPG, 58.4% TS, 108 ORTG, .163 WS/48

Was between Jordan, Shaq and Oscar for the next 2 spots. Shaq was admittedly a victim of circumstance by winning more games than Jordan did (41 vs. 38), but the magic missed the playoffs whereas the bulls made it. I give Jordan the slight edge here as his production was a touch better in the regular season, and we at least got to see him perform as well in the playoffs. There was no shame in going down to the bucks, who won 59 games that year and ranked 1st in SRS. Oscar was obviously there statistically, and his team did have a better single season improvement than jordan's in the regular season, but didn't come close to making the playoffs.

[THKNKG]

1. Artis Gilmore
Much of my reasoning has been covered in previous threads, and Clyde Frazier explained it well.
2. Shaquille O'Neal
Solid team turnaround, and was dominant from day one. He was essentially a complete player from day 1 (which has been a key factor in the winners so far).
3. Oscar Robertson
He didn't improve his team a ton, but he came into the league essentially the same player that he would be all throughout his career. He's the greatest offensive rookie ever.

[Quotatious]

1. Spencer Haywood
2. Connie Hawkins
3. Michael Jordan

MJ replacing Magic as my #3. Haywood and Hawkins still #1 an 2, just because they dominated the league they played in, so much. Jordan was IMO already the third best player in the league as a rookie, after Bird and Magic, which is very impressive considering there was still prime Moses, still very good Kareem, prime English, McHale, peak Isiah, prime Wilkins, Moncrief, some really good players.

Oscar would be over Michael to me, if not for the fact that Robertson missed 8 games and Jordan played all 82. I think that on a per-game basis, Robertson has a slight edge.

[Quotatious]

Final results:

Artis Gilmore - 9 points
Oscar Robertson - 9 points
Michael Jordan - 8 points
Shaquille O'Neal - 5 points
Spencer Haywood - 3 points
Connie Hawkins - 2 points

Gregoire's votes didn't count because he didn't explain anything.

We have a run-off between Gilmore and Robertson.

[eminence]

Whoops, forgot. Will expand on my votes later.

But my current ballot is:
1) Shaq
2) Gilmore
3) Jordan - bit of a place holder here really, need to really dig into the next tier for #8, MJ/Oscar/Hakeem/Russell probably my leading candidates.

[THKNKG]

Whoops, forgot. Will expand on my votes later.

But my current ballot is:
1) Shaq
2) Gilmore
3) Jordan - bit of a place holder here really, need to really dig into the next tier for #8, MJ/Oscar/Hakeem/Russell probably my leading candidates.

We have very similar lists (for the next part at least).
Mine is also

Shaq

MJ/Oscar/Hakeem/Russell

[Pablo Novi]

I have a slightly related question that one or more of you may know the answer to.

For years I've been trying to track down the actual voting totals (number of votes; not total of points received) for the All-League Teams. (All-NBA 1st-Team, 2nd-Team, 3rd-Team; All ABA 1st-Team, 2nd-Team; All NBL 1st-Team, 2nd-Team). iirc, I've been told to look at the Sports Illustrated's (or some other sports magazine's) archives. In the first thread in this series, some one posted a link to a Sports Illustrated issue - so I tried to look for it there - but my search skills don't seem up to the task - or it just isn't there.

Any help?

P.S. about 1.5 years ago, I posted this request in my own thread - but got zero responses.