dygaction wrote:I wanted to extrapolate Oden's theoretical potential, but that was GOAT level making Durant #2 overall pick..
Right. That's the thing, isn't it? Not only was Roy on a trajectory to superstardom, but Oden was theoretically an all-time great center in the making too.
Or so it's fun to imagine.
What we actually got was an Oden whose flashes of greatness were never more than intermittent. He would routinely look like a Mutombo-level defensive anchor one quarter and commit three fouls the next. His offensive game was likewise feast or famine, or, in basketball terms, powerful dunk or clumsy turnover (with the occasional nifty jump hook, I'll give him!). His conditioning was poor because he could never put together a long enough stretch of training or games to be in any kind of NBA shape.
Oden had a long way to go before he was starring for a team with legit championship aspirations. His hypothetical peak of Shaq-but-makes-free-throws is a mirage. If we instead take the Oden we saw and assume no improvement, but give him longevity and more consistency, we still get a high-level contributor: say, Hibbert's equal defensively and DeAndre Jordan with range to 15 feet offensively? (I suck at comparisons, but those two jumped to mind.) That's a perennial all-star. It also still feels like a stretch because longevity and consistency were probably always going to elude Oden. He struggled not only with injuries but with alcohol. He committed an act of DV, which would have been a far bigger deal if he had not already faded from the collective consciousness of the NBA world. His psychological makeup did not present as a resilient professional adult, nor as a positive presence to a basketball team.
I hate to pick on the guy. I've never been so excited for my team to draft a prospect. And he did show flashes of that insane potential. But his career is a reminder that there are no guarantees anybody, no matter how gifted, finds success at the highest levels.