Coyote's Twenty Greatest Players in NBA History (Formula)

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Coyote's Twenty Greatest Players in NBA History (Formula) 

Post#1 » by Wile E. Coyote » Sun Feb 28, 2010 5:36 pm

Top Twenty accurate as of 5/10/23.

I got the idea to do this based on Unbiased Fan's thread. My formula is a bit more complicated, and it's still a work in progress. I think does a fair job, although no formula will be perfect. More players will be added. I've tried to check each player's numbers a few times, but there may still be errors. Let me know if you find any.

Benchmarks:
Bench Warmer: 0 Points
Good NBA Player: 10+ Points
Great NBA Player/Lower Tier Hall of Famer: 20+ Points
Good Hall of Famer: 50+ Points
Lower Tier Franchise Player: 100+ Points
Upper Tier Franchise Player/Once in a Generation Player: 150+ Points
Immortal Player/Top Ten All-Time: 200+ Points
GOAT Level Player: 300+ Points

The List:

1. Michael Jordan 397
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 389
3. Bill Russell 375
4. LeBron James 364*
5. Wilt Chamberlain 334
6. Shaquille O’Neal 298
7. Tim Duncan 296
8. Kobe Bryant 276
9. Hakeem Olajawon 251
10. Larry Bird 226
11. David Robinson 225
12. Kevin Garnett 222
13. Magic Johnson 218
14. Bob Pettit 215
15. Bob Cousy 208
16. John Havlicek 200
16. Jerry West 200
18. Karl Malone 186
19. Moses Malone 170†
20. Oscar Robertson 164
21. Stephen Curry 153*

This formula heavily weighs NBA MVP awards, NBA Finals MVPs and All-NBA teams. Things that are lightly weighed include NBA championships, All-Defensive teams and All-Star game appearances.

Coyote's Formula:
12 Points:
• NBA MVP - Prior to 1955-1956, if a player led the league in PER, I treated it as if they had won this award.
• NBA Finals MVP: Prior to 1968-1969, if a player led his team in Playoff Win Shares, I treated it as if they had won this award. If Win Shares were not tabulated that year, I used a player's PER instead.
8 points:
• All-NBA First/Second Team
6 points:
• Led League in PER
• Defensive Player of the Year: Prior to 1982-1983, if a player led the league in Defensive Win Shares, I treated it as if they had won this award. Had to be 1st team All Defense.
4 points:
• Member of NBA Champion Team (had to play at least 10 minutes a game in the playoffs)
• All-Star Game MVP
• Rookie of the Year: I have not adjusted for this award prior to 1952-1953.
• Led League in PPG
3 points
• Led League in RPG
2 points
• All-Star Game appearance
• All-Defensive Team: Prior to 1968-1969, if a player finished in the top ten in Defensive Win Shares, I treated it as if they had won this award. First or Second team. The player had to appear on the first team All-Defensive team that year. (will raise to four points)
• Led League in APG
• Led League in BPG: Prior to 1973-1974, if a player led the league in rebounding, I awarded just one point. This favored Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain, but it's so inexact, I did not award the full two points.
1 point
• Led League in SPG: I have not adjusted for this award prior to 1973-1974. If I did, it most certainly would favor guards such as Jerry West.
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Re: Coyote's Twenty Greatest Players in NBA History (Formula) 

Post#2 » by Wile E. Coyote » Sun Feb 28, 2010 6:41 pm

Some comments based on probable scenarios as they play out this year:

• Shaquille O'Neal will likely not garner any awards this offseason, but if he is part of the NBA champion Cavaliers, he will have 230 points, and stay in the same position.

• Tim Duncan will most likely be on the All-NBA and All-Defensive Teams. He will then have 218 points, and will still be in 6th place.

• Kobe Bryant will most likely be on the All-NBA and All-Defensive Teams. He will then have 192 points, moving him up to #9. If he wins the NBA championship and Finals MVP (including the other honors), he would have 206 points, moving him past Magic Johnson to #7.

• LeBron James will likely be NBA MVP, All-NBA, and All-Defense. This would give him 102 points. If he also was part of the NBA champion Cavaliers and won NBA Finals MVP, he would then have 116 points. Neither situation gives him enough points to crack the top twenty.
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Re: Coyote's Twenty Greatest Players in NBA History (Formula) 

Post#3 » by Point forward » Sun Feb 28, 2010 6:50 pm

Wile E. Coyote wrote:This formula heavily weighs NBA MVP awards, NBA Finals MVPs and All-NBA teams. Things that are lightly weighed include NBA championships, All-Defensive teams and All-Star game appearances.


The list looks ok, I am really looking forward to see the formula. Some remarks, which are not directed at you, but rather are fundamental dilemmas:

* If NBA MVPs are included, Mikan is penalised, because that award did not exist yet.
* If NBA Finals MVPs are included, Mikan, Russell and Hondo are penalised for the same reason.
* All-NBA Teams often shaft good centers, because there is only one C slot but two for Fs and Gs.

But all in all, I like your results.
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Re: Coyote's Twenty Greatest Players in NBA History (Formula) 

Post#4 » by lorak » Sun Feb 28, 2010 7:00 pm

Wile E. Coyote wrote:This formula heavily weighs NBA MVP awards, NBA Finals MVPs and All-NBA teams. Things that are lightly weighed include NBA championships, All-Defensive teams and All-Star game appearances.


It’s not fair to use criterions such as All Defensive Teams in formulas like this because many players simply can’t gets point for All Defensive Team because that award didn’t exist during their career.
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Re: Coyote's Twenty Greatest Players in NBA History (Formula) 

Post#5 » by penbeast0 » Sun Feb 28, 2010 7:01 pm

I see no reason why you shouldn't include ABA awards as well as NBA . . . quite frankly, from the ABA's 3rd season on, if Kareem signed with the ABA instead of the NBA (damn you George Mikan) the average talent level on the teams would be pretty even from then through 1976 (favoring the ABA in 75 and 76!).

Including them gives a serious boost to Julius Erving and Artis Gilmore who deserve it and Rick Barry who probably doesn't but whose rep and skills would probably have gotten him equivalent points staying in the NBA.

It has very little effect on anyone else in the top 100 (Moses and Gervin weren't that good in the ABA; Connie Hawkins, Mel Daniels, and George McGinnis probably still aren't going to make the list)
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Re: Coyote's Twenty Greatest Players in NBA History (Formula) 

Post#6 » by Wile E. Coyote » Sun Feb 28, 2010 7:09 pm

Point forward wrote:
Wile E. Coyote wrote:This formula heavily weighs NBA MVP awards, NBA Finals MVPs and All-NBA teams. Things that are lightly weighed include NBA championships, All-Defensive teams and All-Star game appearances.


The list looks ok, I am really looking forward to see the formula. Some remarks, which are not directed at you, but rather are fundamental dilemmas:

* If NBA MVPs are included, Mikan is penalised, because that award did not exist yet.


I gave Mikan credit for 3 MVP awards, based on leading in PER for 3 seasons. It's an inexact science, but I'm sure he would have won multiple MVP awards regardless.

* If NBA Finals MVPs are included, Mikan, Russell and Hondo are penalised for the same reason.


If anyone led their team in Playoff Win Shares prior to 1968-1969 and won the NBA Finals, I gave them credit for winning an NBA Finals MVP. Russell had 7, Chamberlain had one, and Hondo had one. I will have to figure out why I gave Mikan three, since they don't have Win Shares for those early years.

All-NBA Teams often shaft good centers, because there is only one C slot but two for Fs and Gs.


I concede that some players may have been shafted. I awarded the same amount of points regardless of whether they were on the first, second, or third teams. This seemed to be the fairest solution.

But all in all, I like your results.


Thank you. I will post the formula soon.
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Re: Coyote's Twenty Greatest Players in NBA History (Formula) 

Post#7 » by Wile E. Coyote » Sun Feb 28, 2010 7:12 pm

penbeast0 wrote:I see no reason why you shouldn't include ABA awards as well as NBA . . . quite frankly, from the ABA's 3rd season on, if Kareem signed with the ABA instead of the NBA (damn you George Mikan) the average talent level on the teams would be pretty even from then through 1976 (favoring the ABA in 75 and 76!).

Including them gives a serious boost to Julius Erving and Artis Gilmore who deserve it and Rick Barry who probably doesn't but whose rep and skills would probably have gotten him equivalent points staying in the NBA.

It has very little effect on anyone else in the top 100 (Moses and Gervin weren't that good in the ABA; Connie Hawkins, Mel Daniels, and George McGinnis probably still aren't going to make the list)


I will put Julius total NBA/ABA number in parenthesis.
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Re: Coyote's Twenty Greatest Players in NBA History (Formula) 

Post#8 » by Point forward » Sun Feb 28, 2010 7:13 pm

^^Interesting and plausible approach. The only thing which strikes me as odd is that Duncan+Shaq > Bird+Magic. But the formula really interests me. 8-)
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Re: Coyote's Twenty Greatest Players in NBA History (Formula) 

Post#9 » by Wile E. Coyote » Sun Feb 28, 2010 7:14 pm

DavidStern wrote:
Wile E. Coyote wrote:This formula heavily weighs NBA MVP awards, NBA Finals MVPs and All-NBA teams. Things that are lightly weighed include NBA championships, All-Defensive teams and All-Star game appearances.


It’s not fair to use criterions such as All Defensive Teams in formulas like this because many players simply can’t gets point for All Defensive Team because that award didn’t exist during their career.


I know it's not an exact science, but in such a case, I awarded the same number of points if a player finished in the top ten in Defensive Win Shares in any season. This gave players like Bill Russell more points than they would have received otherwise. It probably gives centers an advantage, but they get slighted in All-Star and All-NBA selections.
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Re: Coyote's Twenty Greatest Players in NBA History (Formula) 

Post#10 » by Wile E. Coyote » Sun Feb 28, 2010 7:17 pm

Point forward wrote:^^Interesting and plausible approach. The only thing which strikes me as odd is that Duncan+Shaq > Bird+Magic. But the formula really interests me. 8-)


I do think the formula might give a slight advantage to centers and forwards, but I tried not to be biased with any of the numbers to give anyone an unfair advantage.
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Re: Coyote's Twenty Greatest Players in NBA History (Formula) 

Post#11 » by lorak » Sun Feb 28, 2010 7:24 pm

Wile E. Coyote wrote:I know it's not an exact science, but in such a case, I awarded the same number of points if a player finished in the top ten in Defensive Win Shares in any season.


But for example did Hakeem get credit for DPOTY+All D Team+ top 10 Defensive WS and Russell only for top 10 Defensive WS?
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Re: Coyote's Twenty Greatest Players in NBA History (Formula) 

Post#12 » by Point forward » Sun Feb 28, 2010 7:26 pm

I am really interested to see what certain RGM posters will say when they see that Bob Cousy > Kobe Bryant :)
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Re: Coyote's Twenty Greatest Players in NBA History (Formula) 

Post#13 » by Wile E. Coyote » Sun Feb 28, 2010 7:36 pm

DavidStern wrote:
Wile E. Coyote wrote:I know it's not an exact science, but in such a case, I awarded the same number of points if a player finished in the top ten in Defensive Win Shares in any season.


But for example did Hakeem get credit for DPOTY+All D Team+ top 10 Defensive WS and Russell only for top 10 Defensive WS?


This is how I gave credit in this case:

Hakeem: 2 Defensive Player of the Year awards, 9 All-Defensive teams.
Russell: 10 Defensive Player of the Year awards, 12 All-Defensive teams.

It's definitely in Russell's favor, but it's arguable he's the greatest defensive basketball player of all-time.

I also awarded Chamberlain with 1 Defensive Player of the Year (1967-1968), and 9 All-Defensive Teams. This is prior to the award being given out.
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Re: Coyote's Twenty Greatest Players in NBA History (Formula) 

Post#14 » by Wile E. Coyote » Sun Feb 28, 2010 7:37 pm

I re-edited the first post to include my formula.
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Re: Coyote's Twenty Greatest Players in NBA History (Formula) 

Post#15 » by Point forward » Sun Feb 28, 2010 7:46 pm

Wile E. Coyote wrote:Coyote's Formula:
12 Points:
• NBA MVP - Prior to 1955-1956, if a player led the league in PER, I treated it as if they had won this award.
• NBA Finals MVP: Prior to 1968-1969, if a player led his team in Win Shares, I treated it as if they had won this award.
8 points:
• All-NBA team
4 points:
• All-Star Game MVP
• Defensive Player of the Year: Prior to 1982-1983, if a player led the league in Defensive Win Shares, I treated it as if they had won this award.
• Rookie of the Year: I have not adjusted for this award prior to 1952-1953.
• Led League in Scoring
3 points
• Led League in Rebounding
2 points
• All-Star Game
• All-Defensive Team: Prior to 1968-1969, if a player finished in the top ten in Defensive Win Shares, I treated it as if they had won this award.
• Member of NBA Champion Team
• Led League in Assists
• Led League in Blocks: Prior to 1973-1974, if a player led the league in rebounding, I awarded just one point. This favored Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain, but it's so inexact, I did not award the full two points.
1 point
• Led League in Steals


This formula SUCKS, no PER, WS or HCA!!!

Nice formula, looks very solid. :clap: :clap: :clap: The only thing I would add are bonus points if you got multiple accolades in one season, e.g. like 10 bonus points if you get the "Grand Slam" of ring + MVP + Finals MVP (+DPOY). Also if you beat a great opponent, this could count extra - my theory is that Bird, Magic and Erving robbed each other within your formula.

But all in all, this looks very respectable.
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Re: Coyote's Twenty Greatest Players in NBA History (Formula) 

Post#16 » by Wile E. Coyote » Sun Feb 28, 2010 7:56 pm

Point forward wrote:This formula SUCKS, no PER, WS or HCA!!!


I only used PER and WS in award situations. If you use certain awards and stats, players prior to the 1970s take a hit. I didn't bother using HCA.

Nice formula, looks very solid. :clap: :clap: :clap: The only thing I would add are bonus points if you got multiple accolades in one season, e.g. like 10 bonus points if you get the "Grand Slam" of ring + MVP + Finals MVP (+DPOY). Also if you beat a great opponent, this could count extra - my theory is that Bird, Magic and Erving robbed each other within your formula.

But all in all, this looks very respectable.


That's an interesting thought. You could almost make it an intangible award, but that's just it. It's intangible. :)
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Re: Coyote's Twenty Greatest Players in NBA History (Formula) 

Post#17 » by Wile E. Coyote » Sun Feb 28, 2010 7:58 pm

Point forward wrote:I am really interested to see what certain RGM posters will say when they see that Bob Cousy > Kobe Bryant :)


It surprised me too before I started using the formula, but it shows just what an impressive career Bob Cousy had. Big Kobe fan here too.
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Re: Coyote's Twenty Greatest Players in NBA History (Formula) 

Post#18 » by Jordan23Forever » Sun Feb 28, 2010 8:02 pm

A player's individual dominance HAS TO BE included in any ranking of the greatest players ever, even if you just use it as a "push" to decide cases where resumes are roughly equal. Accolades are nice, but dominance is another thing entirely.
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Re: Coyote's Twenty Greatest Players in NBA History (Formula) 

Post#19 » by ag101 » Sun Feb 28, 2010 8:07 pm

You know what, this is a pretty decent ranking.
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Re: Coyote's Twenty Greatest Players in NBA History (Formula) 

Post#20 » by Warspite » Sun Feb 28, 2010 8:13 pm

Useing WS as a basis of awards is pretty flawed. I would also encourage you to not use 3rd team all NBA since its only been around for about a decade. Actualy it would be a nice project for RealGM posters to go back and look at each NBA Finals (1 thread per yr) and debate and vote on and basicly give out the Finals MVP and use that basis. That sounds like a good summer project when its 120 outside and I can go anywhere because the oven mits and pot holders are in the wash so I cant open my car door.
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