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Official Draft Thread Part 2

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Post#1 Official Draft Thread Part 2
Fri Dec 7, 2012 7:21 pm by ATL Boy

This was a success last year. This is the thread to talk all things NBA Draft as it relates to the Atlanta Hawks.
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Post#2 Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2
Fri Dec 7, 2012 7:44 pm by GrimeyKidd

Im looking at

Alex Len
Dario Saric
Lebryan Nash
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Post#3 Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2
Sat Dec 8, 2012 1:54 am by theatlfan

Good Thread.

How many picks will we have this year? If HOU makes the playoffs, then we'll have their entire draft on top of our own. Right now, they're in an scrum with 7 teams within 2 games of the 6th seed in the West. I'm on the fence as to whether I'd actually want them to. The draft is fairly weak, but I could see a lot of guys on the fence jumping in because of that as well. A extra pick in the middle of the 1st could be a sweet spot of the draft - something it seems that we've been just outside of seemingly every year.

The other ? I have is whether Ferry will go Euro. He was on the International side with SAS so I suspected he would last year, but he didn't. It didn't surprise me in the 1st - the only Euro expected to go was already off the board - but I was slightly surprised he didn't in the 2nd. I'm not disappointed in either the selection of Mike Scott or his production so far, just surprised Ferry selected him. Considering that next year's draft is supposedly weak and we could have 4 picks in the draft, I wonder if Ferry will hit up some of his contacts and make a promise to a Euro with one of the 1sts. Might not be a bad move.

Now that we've seen and heard Ferry's plan, I think we can have a handle on what he's looking for at the separate positions. If we have 4 picks in the draft, then we could have quite a haul. It wouldn't surprise me if we ended up with 3-4 of the players listed below:
Bigs: Looking for a 20 min/night guy who can play C's 1-on-1 - rebounding a plus
Willie Cauley: Athletic 7'er who is growing into his body. Backup for KY. Ceiling is through the roof.
Stephen Adams: pseudo-int'l (from NZ but plays for Pitt) 7'er who has NBA body and athleticism.
Patric Young: NBA body and athleticism, but after 2 years @ UFla you'd like to see a more complete package
Jeff Withey: Dominated Thomas Robinson in the post in the NCAAs last season. Another Cole Aldrich?
Gorgui Dieng: Another pseudo-int'l guy. Athletic 7'er but you'd prefer to see a more complete package from a 22 yo.

Wings: Looking for versatile athlete who can hit the 3. Note: Grimey mentioned Saric and Nash above.
Ben McLemore: Has it all - length, range, athleticism - in an ideal SG body (6'4/5" that could easily carry 200#)
Alex Abrines: Athletic Spaniard with deep range. Seems adamant that he's not entering the draft, but would a promise change his mind?
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: GA Boy with deep range.
Glenn Robinson III: NBA Bloodlines and B-Ball IQ. Great athleticism.

Guards: Needs to penetrate and be a play maker in general
CJ McCollum: Dominated Duke in NCAAs last year. Good B-Ball skills including deep range.
Michael Carter-Williams: Excellent size (6'5") for PG and can penetrate.
Myck Kabongo: True PG with athleticism and length
BJ Young: Another scoring PG. Excellent penetration skills.
Trey Burke: Just a B-Ball player. Good, but not great, measurables, but puts up numbers.
Lorenzo Brown: GA Boy with excellent size (6'5") for PG and can penetrate.
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Post#4 Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2
Sat Dec 8, 2012 11:53 am by Geaux_Hawks

I'm hoping Ferry moves these expirings, and grabs a mid-late lotto pick. Alex Len, Isiah Austin, & Steven Adams should be the primary targets. After that, we can look at a guy like Nash or Saric. Maybe steal a guy like Reggie Bullock late in the first. Brandon Paul in the 2nd would be a good pick up. An international to look out for is Leo Westermann. Physically, he isn't the most impressive, but at 6'6, he is a big point guard with an impressive skill set, and an outside shot. He's a floor general, and could be a nice back up to Teague, especially in the half court with Horford.
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Post#5 Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2
Sat Dec 8, 2012 2:17 pm by theatlfan

Geaux_Hawks wrote:I'm hoping Ferry moves these expirings, and grabs a mid-late lotto pick. Alex Len, Isiah Austin, & Steven Adams should be the primary targets. After that, we can look at a guy like Nash or Saric. Maybe steal a guy like Reggie Bullock late in the first. Brandon Paul in the 2nd would be a good pick up. An international to look out for is Leo Westermann. Physically, he isn't the most impressive, but at 6'6, he is a big point guard with an impressive skill set, and an outside shot. He's a floor general, and could be a nice back up to Teague, especially in the half court with Horford.
Would you be willing to take on salary to do that though? A team with a mid-to-late lotto isn't going to want to deal the pick unless they can free up $$ in which case we lose the opportunity to make a run after a max guy to pair with Horford and Smoove. I know that the FA class next off-season isn't too strong (if we think that D12 and CP3 are happy with their current employment, then the next tier would guys like Bynum, Igoudala, ... and Smoove).

I guess we could absorb deals with 1 more year for picks and go back into FA in '14, but there's 2 problems there: 1) the amnesty clause has devalued the price of taking on bad contracts and 2) we'd risk losing Smoove to do it. Probably means taking a huge step back to go forward again. Would ASG go for that?
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Post#6 Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2
Thu Dec 13, 2012 5:30 am by Geaux_Hawks

theatlfan wrote:
Geaux_Hawks wrote:I'm hoping Ferry moves these expirings, and grabs a mid-late lotto pick. Alex Len, Isiah Austin, & Steven Adams should be the primary targets. After that, we can look at a guy like Nash or Saric. Maybe steal a guy like Reggie Bullock late in the first. Brandon Paul in the 2nd would be a good pick up. An international to look out for is Leo Westermann. Physically, he isn't the most impressive, but at 6'6, he is a big point guard with an impressive skill set, and an outside shot. He's a floor general, and could be a nice back up to Teague, especially in the half court with Horford.
Would you be willing to take on salary to do that though? A team with a mid-to-late lotto isn't going to want to deal the pick unless they can free up $$ in which case we lose the opportunity to make a run after a max guy to pair with Horford and Smoove. I know that the FA class next off-season isn't too strong (if we think that D12 and CP3 are happy with their current employment, then the next tier would guys like Bynum, Igoudala, ... and Smoove).

I guess we could absorb deals with 1 more year for picks and go back into FA in '14, but there's 2 problems there: 1) the amnesty clause has devalued the price of taking on bad contracts and 2) we'd risk losing Smoove to do it. Probably means taking a huge step back to go forward again. Would ASG go for that?


Ultimately, I would only want to do it if we could get Len or Adams out of the draft. I don't mind waiting an extra year to after a nice free agent. Smith won't see a max contract, so need to worry on that end. Doubt he gets over 12. So we could still have some spare cash to land a decent free agent in '14. Assuming then we would want a wing as our top priority, a guy like Iggy, Granger, or Deng may be open to coming here. Maybe we could land a young guy in rFA. I honestly don't see Dwight or CP3 leaving to come here, and Bynum has never meshed with me. I like Pekovich and Splitter, but Len and Adams would give us more upside.
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Post#7 Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2
Thu Dec 13, 2012 2:51 pm by Rip2137

New Jersey saw fit to give Kris Humphries 12, no way Josh goes for under 15.
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Post#8 Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2
Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:34 am by theatlfan

Geaux_Hawks wrote:Ultimately, I would only want to do it if we could get Len or Adams out of the draft. I don't mind waiting an extra year to after a nice free agent. Smith won't see a max contract, so need to worry on that end. Doubt he gets over 12. So we could still have some spare cash to land a decent free agent in '14. Assuming then we would want a wing as our top priority, a guy like Iggy, Granger, or Deng may be open to coming here. Maybe we could land a young guy in rFA. I honestly don't see Dwight or CP3 leaving to come here, and Bynum has never meshed with me. I like Pekovich and Splitter, but Len and Adams would give us more upside.
Smith might not get the max but as Rip says, he'll be getting considerably more than $12M unless he decides to take less. As much cr@p as Smoove gets on these boards, he's really a good player and the lynchpin of our D. We can't let him walk.

The more I think on it, I just can't see any way we'll be able to have enough cap room for a run at a '14 FA. Simply put - we have to make a roster out for next year and we want to be competitive. To get guys who'll keep us competitive, we'll have to give deals longer than a year - 3 at the least. Basically, we'd have to take a Pau Gasol sized salary dump to make that happen, and I don't see the contract out there that a team would (and could) give us the value needed to make a run at an Adams, so forth a Len. The reality is that we really have to make the run at our guys this off-season.

I think Iggy exercises his option and becomes an FA this year. Less competition in the FA market means more teams that would target him. After Dwight and Paul, he might be the best FA on the market and there's actually a chance he could jump. Honestly, I wouldn't mind bringing him in, but we're looking at some hard decisions elsewhere (pull Teague's QO?) if we take on salary and also keep Smoove. We're already very close to having to make these decisions anyway without taking on any salary...

Don't count on RFAs. As we saw this season, teams will extend anyone and everyone who has shown 1/2 a pulse and the player doesn't think he's worth a lot more than he is. From as much hype as next year's RFA class was getting, now the best targets from teams that may not match are guys like Tyreke Evans, Brandon Jennings, and Eric Maynor - talented guys to be sure, but not necessarily guys you'd hitch the future of your team on.
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Post#9 Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2
Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:32 pm by Geaux_Hawks

Rip2137 wrote:New Jersey saw fit to give Kris Humphries 12, no way Josh goes for under 15.

Yeah, Billy King also gave Wallace 10 million, traded for Gerald Wallace last year for a low lottery pick, and like you said, gave Hump 12 million. Did us huge favor by taking Joe. That's kind of a balanced move if you take out salary considerations, which obviously were since Proky is a billionaire with Jay Z backing him.

If the Hawks are smart,14 million is the max Josh gets per year. Ferry is smarter than to overpay for a guy. David Lee couldn't even get a max deal.
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Post#10 Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2
Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:56 pm by Geaux_Hawks

I just don't see Josh getting anything close to a max from nobody in the league unless you desperately want him. With that said, we could be outbid, but look at the competition on that. You got Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Milwaukee, New Orleans, Sactown, San Antonio, & Utah. Charlotte, New Orleans, Milwaukee, and Sactown aren't competing with Smith. Dallas has to find a way to get Mayo back if they want Smith as well. San Antonio has to decide if they want Splitter, Manu, and Neal back. So that probably leaves Detroit, Houston, and Cleveland really as the only ones to give Smith a max deal. Houston probably makes the jump to instant contender, while Cleveland would probably need for Waiters to really step up. Monroe, Drummond, Knight, Stuckey, and Smith would probably be a great starting 5, but are they really going to compete right away? Smith could very well walk away with a max this summer, but I just don't see it likely to happen. If we do give it to him, then oh well. Just make sure we make some more good additions.
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Post#11 Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2
Fri Dec 14, 2012 5:22 pm by theatlfan

Geaux_Hawks wrote:I just don't see Josh getting anything close to a max from nobody in the league unless you desperately want him. With that said, we could be outbid, but look at the competition on that. You got Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Milwaukee, New Orleans, Sactown, San Antonio, & Utah. Charlotte, New Orleans, Milwaukee, and Sactown aren't competing with Smith. Dallas has to find a way to get Mayo back if they want Smith as well. San Antonio has to decide if they want Splitter, Manu, and Neal back. So that probably leaves Detroit, Houston, and Cleveland really as the only ones to give Smith a max deal. Houston probably makes the jump to instant contender, while Cleveland would probably need for Waiters to really step up. Monroe, Drummond, Knight, Stuckey, and Smith would probably be a great starting 5, but are they really going to compete right away? Smith could very well walk away with a max this summer, but I just don't see it likely to happen. If we do give it to him, then oh well. Just make sure we make some more good additions.
I agree in that DET and HOU would be the 2 teams that could make a realistic run. Dumars has liked Smoove for awhile and DET already has a 1st out with declining protection to CHA. They're motivated to get better quick and playing next to Drummond and Monroe does have some appeal. HOU's motivation would be to have the #2 guy on both O and D so they could rest up Harden and Asik occasionally.

I don't know what anyone would offer Smoove, but he'll get offers much higher than $12M. If it goes all the way to the max (close to $18M for him) is definitely a question, but I'm guessing at least $15M.
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Post#12 Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2
Fri Dec 14, 2012 7:19 pm by Geaux_Hawks

For us, it can't be 15 million. Maybe for Houston or Detroit, but the Hawks minimum is at least 12. Love and Marc Gasol are at 13. Randolph and Bosh are making 17. Smith's market will have to be around 12-15 max. At least for now anyways. If he can up his scoring and rebounding to 20/10 and still give us D, then I could see a deal up to max almost from the Hawks. With that said, I think I'm just going to let that go and get back to the topic.
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Post#13 Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2
Fri Dec 14, 2012 8:44 pm by theatlfan

Geaux_Hawks wrote:For us, it can't be 15 million. Maybe for Houston or Detroit, but the Hawks minimum is at least 12. Love and Marc Gasol are at 13. Randolph and Bosh are making 17. Smith's market will have to be around 12-15 max. At least for now anyways. If he can up his scoring and rebounding to 20/10 and still give us D, then I could see a deal up to max almost from the Hawks. With that said, I think I'm just going to let that go and get back to the topic.
A max contract is based on service time, and Smoove is in the 7-9 years of experience category. Hence, Love isn't comparable and neither is M Gasol. If they aren't on a max deal, then they're within a million or 2. Bosh, Wade, and LeBron all took less so they could play together so he's not really a comp either (although we'd all love it if Smoove did the same...). Randolph is really the only comp here and when he was signing his contract, he already had accusations of rape and sodomy and rumors of being complicit with a large scale drug ring. IF that's the comp, then we're maxing Smoove.
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Post#14 Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2
Sat Dec 15, 2012 12:03 am by Geaux_Hawks

Sorry, I forgot about that new cba rule. Still I just don't think Smith is getting a max. I know Bosh is signed for lesser, but had he taken market value, he'd be around 17+. ZBO is legit 20/10 guy despite not being very athletic. He's a monster on the boards and very skilled offensively. Josh can be a top 5 PF, but he's been inconsistent a lot. I love Josh and think he gets to much heat on this board, but he isn't a 15+ million dollar guy. Like I said, he could get a deal that big, but I don't think he is worth it right now..
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Post#15 Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2
Sat Dec 15, 2012 1:22 pm by theatlfan

Well, looks like we've stolen this thread...

1st, MIA actually agreed to the max with Bosh with the caveat that he'd take less if LeBron came. Z-Bo offers very little on D and is typically "hidden" on that side of the court. Smoove actually rates on par with Z-Bo in Defensive Rebounding over the last 2 seasons.

If I'm Josh's agent, here's my argument: When Horford was out all last year, Josh stepped up and kept the team in the playoff hunt while being surrounded by JJ, Teague, and a host of backup-quality/vet mini guys like Zaza, Hinrich, Marvin, Willie Green, etc. He was in the top 10 among PFs in the following categories: blocks per minute, steals per minute, defensive rebound rate, assist rate, pure point rating, points per minute, and PER. Among all position, he led the league in Defensive Win Shares and placed top 10 in minutes (9), FGs (6), FGAs (5), points (10), Defensive Rating (5), DR (5), TR (10), Blocks (8), bpg (9), and top 20 in FTAs (16), ppg (19), usage (14), steals (18), block% (19), rpg (13), DRR (13), and spg (20). This year he's added a 3PT shot to his arsenal (43% in SSS, but he doesn't have to be a threat out there - just someone you shouldn't ignore). This seems to support the eye test - when he's on, he can be seemingly everywhere on D and we've built our D around his skills; on O, he's an underrated passer and a volume shooter who can take some (really) bad shots, and while he does get to the line, he is a poor FT shooter.

Now, I'm no Smoove-lover. I do think he's underrated on these boards, but I don't overlook his flaws either. He fills up a stat sheet, but I wouldn't necessarily call him elite in any particular area - not even his D. If you're looking for him to be THE guy, then you'll be left wanting. If you want a very good - possibly even great - 2-way player, then he can definitely be that. Is that worth the max? I can't say, but it's definitely worth a raise. I wouldn't think that a 10% raise would be outlandish, and that puts him @ $14.5M next year - very close to the $15M line we're throwing out there. Considering his RFA adventure, I'm sure that he'll be marketing himself this FA period, so I wouldn't think that an extra $.5M would be out of the question. Any more than that really depends on DET and HOU...
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Post#16 Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2
Thu Dec 27, 2012 2:11 am by teamjosh04

One thing Ferry loves is shooters - he surrounded LeBron with shooters and back in San Antonio, they always have big time shooters on the outside.

He went for John Jenkins in last year's draft and he's a guy who only has shooting to offer. And he got Korver and Morrow on top of that.

The best shooting wing in the Hawks' range is Reggie Bullock. He's a great defender and has deep range. He does all the little things for UNC. Even with the Heels struggling and him being able to step up as a creator, Bullock still possesses great role playing qualities. He won't ever be a creator or great off the dribble, but he is a smart offensive player and passes the ball well.

If you want a more dynamic guy who can shoot Ferry could go for Brandon Paul. He's an athletic combo guard who has stepped up big time so far in his senior season. He likes to shoot 3s, but is capable for getting to the rim as well. He can play some point guard and has shown good leadership abilities, but is more of a scorer off the bench type. His effort on defense is solid.

The local guy, Caldwell-Pope is another option if he chooses to come out. Like Bullock, he has ideal size and a sweet stroke and plays with energy on defense. Unlike Bullock, he takes a lot of bad shots and makes quite a few mental errors. He is really good shooting off the bounce though moving either way - he isnt creative, but has a nice first step that is enough to get good separation for his jumper. He also can explode to the rim at times, although that is mainly just to keep defenses honest.

Of the three, I like Bullock the best.

It might be better to wait for the second round to grab a shooting wing, if you want one depending on who declares. Crabbe, Kilpatrick, Wilcox, and McDermott all are shooters and happen to be juniors.

Kilpatrick is the oldest of the group and also the most likely to declare. He may be the least of the pure shooters, but also possesses the ability to get to the basket thanks to his strength. He's only an average athlete, but plays tough. He might be the best of the group - certainly the most well-rounded.

Wilcox is built like Reggie Bullock. Tall, somewhat lanky, spot up shooter. He projects as a pure spot up shooter in the NBA. His defense has the potential to be solid enough for him to stick.

Crabbe is an interesting player who does his best work moving without the ball. He's more explosive and quick than he looks based off his smallish stature. He doesn't just settle for 3-pt shots. He finds a lot of ways to score including out in transition, off mid-range curls, and cuts to the basket. His defense at the next level is suspect.

McDermott is the old ball of the group - I wanted to exclude stretch PFs from the list. In college McDermott is neither a stretch forward or a small forward, he actually spends most of his time in the post. And he is very good at getting position, drawing fouls, and finishing through contact. His energy on the court goes unmatched. I'm projecting him as a small forward though because he would get bullied down low in the NBA. He can provide great shooting while also being a threat to put it on the floor and use his craftiness. Defense will always be tough for him, but you cant fault his energy. A big part of defense for wings has to do with chasing players around the court and going through screens so McDermott will at least be able to prove how active he is on D.

This could also be the year to try for another center. Dont count on having a chance at Steven Adams. There is a solid chance he comes back to school and I dont see him entering the draft if he is not a lottery pick. He's had a bit of a slow start, but that was to be expected. I still see him as a lottery talent.

Besides him, center is deep and there is a good shot the Hawks can get a legit big man. Alex Len is viewed as a lottery pick by many GMs right now, but has yet to show he can withstand the rigors of the ACC.

Plumlee is also being hyped as a lottery pick in the midst of his breakout senior season even though he projects more as an energy big off the bench.

Then there is Jeff Withey, who is also getting lottery love off of his impressive senior season.

Plumlee is the best athlete, Withey is the best defender, and Len has the most polished offensive game. One of them has a chance to slide into the 20s with Withey being the best bet (although I like him more than Plumlee).

There is also junior Giorgi Dieng who has been injured much of the year. He comes back against Kentucky this Saturday. He was in the same category as Withey and Plumlee before the year and could end up playing his way back into it. Just more depth for the center postion.

Patric Young has been a bit of a letdown and has needed some motivation to play up to his full potential. Now in his junior year, his potential looks far less intriguing while his niche in the NBA looks more concrete. While Young lacks any offensive polish, he projects to be a good backup F/C thanks to his defense. This year he is finally starting to block shots like he should. He also moves his feet well, comes up with steals, rebounds, and has the strength to hold his position.

Cauley-Stein, Tarczewski, and Karnowski are three freshman who could be picked in the 20s if they choose to come out.
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Post#17 Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2
Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:13 am by tcorbin

Hawks could gamble with the 15th pick and get a guy like Isaiah Austin, Rudy Gobert, Willie Cauley Stein, or Caldwell Pope

then Ferry can use the 23rd pick to get a safe pick or a shooter like Doug McDermott or Isaiah Canaan
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Post#18 Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2
Sun Dec 30, 2012 11:03 am by Fischella

I'm interested only in two guys

LeBryan Nash, power 3, good rebounder, defensive mind guy, energy boost.
Willie Cauley-Stein, nimble feet, good shot blocker, great upside

If we can grab both with our pick and Houston pick, it'll be awesome.
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Post#19 Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2
Sun Dec 30, 2012 5:57 pm by tcorbin

If the Hawks really do try use all their cap to go after Dwight, the the Hawks will definatly need a backup center. Keith Benson might give the Hawks a chance a third time around, or the Hawks could go after Plumlee, Jeff Withey, or Cauley Stein in the draft, along with Isaiah Canaan as a backup PG to replace Harris.

although i would still appreciate going after Doug McDermott
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Post#20 Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2
Sun Jan 6, 2013 3:47 pm by gurpilo

I think both picks would be around 15-20. My draft targets would be:

SF: Otto Porter, Alex Poythress, LeBryan Nash, Glenn Robinson, Tony Mitchell
C: Isaiah Austin, Rudy Gobert, Jeff Withey
SG: Archie Goodwin, Marcus Smart, Caldwell Pope
PG: M. Carter-Williams, Trey Burke, Isaiah Canaan

If you find yourself with the chance of taking any first option at either position, draft him, you could be lucky and get a star, if you find that you have the chance at any second option, also draft him except Rudy Gobert, his talent is not comparable to Smart, Burke or Poythress, then go for need at position. Our biggest needs would be a Big defensive center, SF with size that can defend, good defensive wing and a backup PG.
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