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Official Draft Thread Part 2

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Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#21 » by gurpilo » Sun Jan 6, 2013 8:50 pm

I don't think Cauley Stein or Steven Adams are declaring.
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Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#22 » by gurpilo » Sun Jan 6, 2013 9:00 pm

To finish with it someone would think we don't have a chance at any of the first two options at the position, well, if we draft between 15-20 and Shabazz Muhammad, Norel, Len, Mclemore, Zeller, Bennet, McDoo, Mitchell, McCollum and Plumlee are probably gone, we are going to have a chance at one of those. All of them have something that shows promise. Personally I would love to get Otto Porter, Alex Poythress or Michael Carter-Williams.
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Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#23 » by Geaux_Hawks » Mon Feb 25, 2013 5:00 pm

Fischella wrote:I'm interested only in two guys

LeBryan Nash, power 3, good rebounder, defensive mind guy, energy boost.
Willie Cauley-Stein, nimble feet, good shot blocker, great upside

If we can grab both with our pick and Houston pick, it'll be awesome.

Did not know you were a Hawks fan.. lol

I like Nash as well, but would like to see what Glen Robinson of Michigan can do. I would like to move up in the 2nd round if Nash does drop and pick him up. If WCS actually declares, then he would be worth a gamble also. I think I would look for Isiah Austin though.
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Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#24 » by parson » Sat Mar 2, 2013 6:55 pm

I know I'm nothing close to a scout. I'm not pretending otherwise.

Maybe the talent level is down; maybe there are no superstars in this draft. However, Nerlens Noel, Alex Len, Willie Cauley-Stein, Isaiah Austin, Rudy Gobert, Jeff Withey, Lucas Nogueira and Mike Muscala could each become very good NBA defenders at Center.

This very poor draft could be a very good opportunity for us.
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Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#25 » by azuresou1 » Mon Mar 11, 2013 10:21 pm

Assumptions Going In
- I'm not sure what we'll end up doing with Josh, but I will assume that if we don't resign him we will score a FA center, or arrange a trade that doesn't involve our other major assets.
- I will also assume that we don't trade up or down in this draft, and that we'll be somewhere in the first or second round of playoffs, as will Houston

Team Needs
In my mind, our biggest need is for a high volume scoring wing (preferably a slasher). Look at every team at the top of the standings. Every one of them has at least one elite slasher on their roster. Slashers (or players who are really good at slashing) are invaluable because they get easy layups and FTs which are at a premium, especially in the playoffs. Teague can slash but he's sometimes hesitant and also doesn't draw all that many FTs.
This is I believe our only need. However, I believe we could also get good value by identifying promising big men, which are useful either as depth or as trade bait.

Specific Players I Like In Draft Range*
Archie Goodwin - EXTREMELY athletic SG who is a great slasher, and also is a decent if aggressive defender. Also only a freshman.
Glenn Robinson - Great all around wing whose only tangible weaknesses against him that I can find are shooting off the dribble and that he's unselfish on a team with older more established guys. Low volume, but I think that gets remedied by age and confidence.
James McAdoo - I'm a sucker for smooth, athletic tweeners who actually have ball skills and play smart.

I like all these guys a lot and I'm hoping we get at least one of them, hopefully multiple (given that we have Houston's pick as well).


*Caveat - I don't watch much college ball so everything here is a mixture of my interpretation of scouting reports, Youtube clips, and stats that I can find.
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Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#26 » by parson » Tue Mar 12, 2013 3:06 am

I think our biggest need - by far - is a defensive Center. Smith's a great shotblocker but he can be pushed around by true bigs. If we were to sign Howard, I'd agree with the idea of a wing player but that's a big "if."
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Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#27 » by azuresou1 » Tue Mar 12, 2013 2:39 pm

I don't see any worthy centers in this draft, I would rather flat out sign Pekovic and then draft one of those guys than try to draft a center and spend our capspace on a middling pool of FA wings.
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Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#28 » by theatlfan » Wed Mar 13, 2013 8:32 pm

Good to see this thread starting to pick up again. I figured I'd throw this out there to help put some names in the conversation - I've been looked at 3 Big Boards (nbadraft.net, draftexpress.com, and espn) and figured I'd put something together to show what the consensus of names that we should be looking at for our pick(s). I have some comments for the other posts, but I just felt that this should go first so other can see what I was basing this off of. One note before beginning: in the NBA, a team has to pick the most talented player in every case. Unless 2 players are so close in talent that the difference is negligible, need simply shouldn't be considered. There's simply too many cases of a team reaching for need only to find themselves with a worthless player at the end of the bench. Sure, there will be some differences in that team A may value shooting more than team B, so the two teams could vary on a prospect, but knowing how 3rd parties view a prospect should give us some framework for the guys we should be looking at.

Picks:
Right now, we've got the 17th and 18th picks although HOU and we are right in the middle of 8 teams that are within 1.5-2 games of the two of us.

Teams right behind us: LAL, MIL, UTH
- If HOU tanks and falls behind both LAL and UTH, then we lose their pick.
- LAL and MIL are playing really well right now. It wouldn't surprise me to see them pass both of us.

Teams right ahead of us: BOS, GSW, CHI.
Honestly, I can see any of these teams take off and leave us in the dust or fall behind us.

For ease, I'll assume that our picks stay at 17 and 18, but I could see the picks ending up anywhere from 14 to 20. Our only "real" asset to trade is cap space but it would mean that we'd have to renounce one or more players to do so. (NOTE: We can *not* trade Smith or Teague in any deal with draft picks that fall this year. Sorry for those who feel this is just reiterating the obvious, but many get it wrong.)


Players:
Cross these guys off your list (9).
Since all these guys are either in the top 10 or just outside of it, we can safely cross these names off the list of players who could be available for us.
PG: Smart
Wing: McLemore, Porter, Oladipo, Muhammad
Big: Noel, Bennett, C Zeller, Len

The next 2:
There are 2 guys are that show up in the early to mid teens of all the boards. If we're picking at 14 or 15, then they could be on the board, but since I'm assuming we're not picking to 17, I'm thinking they'd be crossed off the list.
Probably off the list: Plumlee, Olynyk


So the clumping of guys who could be available to us and show up in the top 25 of at least 2 of the lists. While I tried to keep them in some order, a lot of these guys are close and differ in ordering between the boards - the parentheses indicate guys who were so close that I didn't bother trying to order them:
PG: Michael Carter-Williams, (Trey Burke, CJ McCollum), Myck Kabongo
Wings: Gary Harris, (Archie Goodwin, James McAdoo, Alex Poythress, Glenn Robinson), (Tony Mitchell, Dario Saric), Jamal Franklin, Sergey Karasev
Bigs: (Rudy Gobert, Willie Cauley-Stein), Isaiah Austin, Steven Adams

Other names who show up in the top 25 in one of the lists:
Spencer Dinwiddie, Markel Brown, BJ Young, Doug McDermott, Isaiah Canann, Tim Hardaway Jr

Some notes:
* Remember that there's only 11 guys who I have going before us, so there will be another 2-7 who go off the board before we select.
* Karasev and Gary Harris are *not* expected to enter the draft. There are questions around some of the others - most notably Steven Adams.
* Obviously, there will be some variation between now and D-Day, but this is also why I extended the listing to include the top 25 instead of the top 20. Still, this doesn't mean that someone could jump up due to a hit NCAA tourney or a great showing in the draft lead-up.
* Interesting that there aren't too many prospects here at the position that is arguably the most stocked on our roster and in all the NBA (PF) - McAdoo and maybe Mitchell are really the only ones who should be there full time while Poythress and Saric could play there in a "small" lineup. One would have to think this actually favors us and our situation.
* The consensus is higher on Michael Carter-Williams (rankings are 11, 13, 13) than this listing suggests. I'm adding him since he is falling on all the lists and there's actually a decent 2nd tier of PG prospects that could move in front of him.
* Myck Kabongo, Jamal Franklin, and Sergey Karasev do not show up in at least 2 of the lists, but I added them.
- Franklin is 22 on one list and 26 on another, so I figured close enough.
- Kabongo is just getting back to playing after a lengthy NCAA suspension. The "out of sight, out of mind" rule applies, so I added him.
- Karasev is becoming the consensus #3 international player after Saric and Gobert. I added him since Ferry has a background in International scouting.


Personal Thoughts:
- I'd really like our draft if we could land one of Gobert or Cauley-Stein and would love it if we got both. They are both projects, but we're not getting big who isn't in the late teens of any draft. Both have the size and length to be impact players down the road.
- Unless there's a run on PG in the mid-teens (this is highly possible), this is where the value lies @ 17/18.
- With the exception of Gary Harris and possibly Glenn Robinson, I don't see any of the other wings as being "Ferry guys". They all have more athleticism than basketball skills at this point.
- My personal "realistic" board stacks up like this:
1) Gobert
2) Cauley-Stein
Just think that both Gobert and Cauley-Stein could be at least a Dalembert with the possibility of much more.
3) Michael Carter-Williams
Too much talent here to pass on; possible matchup nightmare for opponents.
4) Gary Harris
Like his game and think he could be a Ferry guy.
5) Steven Adams
Another C prospect who has more upside than production now.
6) Glenn Robinson
7) Alex Poythress
8) Isaiah Austin
3 guys with immense talent but significant questions to their game. All 3 have superstar upside and wasted cap space downside.
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Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#29 » by gurpilo » Thu Mar 14, 2013 8:22 pm

Sorry, I don't see Gobert going into the first 20 picks, I would love to get Caulley Stein though.

Goodwin is going to be a good player and probably the best PG prospect is Trey Burke.
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Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#30 » by Geaux_Hawks » Fri Mar 15, 2013 4:12 am

azuresou1 wrote:I don't see any worthy centers in this draft, I would rather flat out sign Pekovic and then draft one of those guys than try to draft a center and spend our capspace on a middling pool of FA wings.

That's the thing though. The good centers are always slept on because they aren't big time athletes or aren't known for shot blocking or aren't the best rebounders statistically. The '08 draft(quite impressive overall), produced a solid crop centers that are contributing right now and only one went lotto. The Behemoth known as Roy Hibbert was selected 17th overall. Lopez went 10th. Javale McGee was still quite raw, but he still looked great at times, and went 18th. Koufos went 23rd after coming from Europe and having a great season as a freshman. DeAndre Jordan and Asik were 2nd round picks and both have some hefty contracts right now. I excluded Pekovich because if he would have been a lock to come over, then he was easily a top 10 pick.

Point being, guys like Kelly Olynyk, Cauley-Stien, Isiah Austin, Jeff Whitey, Rudy Gobert, Noguiera, and possibly even Mike Muscala are all worthy picks in one way or another. Len, Zeller, and Noel are going to be top picks out of our range more than likely.
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Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#31 » by theatlfan » Fri Mar 15, 2013 4:53 am

gurpilo wrote:Sorry, I don't see Gobert going into the first 20 picks, I would love to get Caulley Stein though.

Goodwin is going to be a good player and probably the best PG prospect is Trey Burke.
The thing about Gobert when I see articles about people who go watch him, they love him; when I see articles about the lanky guy overseas, they don't. Still, it does say something when Presti flies overseas to get his eyes on him in a game. His pluses are that he's highly efficient (75% FG) who can get his without being a focal point; he's also an elite shot blocker. On the down side, I don't know if he legitimately guard the NBA C position. I do think for a team that is as desperate for size as we are then he's worth the risk if he's available in the late teens in this draft.

I'm not looking at Carter-Williams as the regular PG for us, but someone who would fill the Devin Harris role earlier in the season. Starts at the 2 with Teague and gives us a second penetrator on O then gives us another option to run the O with L Williams or J Jenkins. He has to gain some mass to match up @ the 2 and I'd surely like to see him be more efficient from range, but we're not getting a ready made guy that late either.

I waffle on both Goodwin and Jamal Franklin - one day I think they could be steals, the next I'm pretty blaise on them. I actually forgot those 2 when I was making my list though, Goodwin should have slotted in either 6 or 7 (depends on the day - I'm pretty solid with Robinson though) with Franklin at the end. I guess I was trying to figure out where I was going to put them, then didn't put them anywhere at all.
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Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#32 » by azuresou1 » Fri Mar 15, 2013 1:53 pm

I stand by my statement that I don't see any worthy Cs in this draft. My draft criteria for a team like us is which players are likely to be relevant NBA starters 4-5 years after they're drafted. Cauley-Stein and Noel could be good, but they're going to be drafted WAY before we get in range. The rest won't start.
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Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#33 » by theatlfan » Fri Mar 15, 2013 4:25 pm

azuresou1 wrote:I stand by my statement that I don't see any worthy Cs in this draft. My draft criteria for a team like us is which players are likely to be relevant NBA starters 4-5 years after they're drafted. Cauley-Stein and Noel could be good, but they're going to be drafted WAY before we get in range. The rest won't start.
I don't necessarily agree with the C comment, but it's definitely fair. I think the way I do since a) the depth at C in this draft is actually pretty impressive and b) the hit rate for C's drafted outside the lottery is surprising high over the last 5-10 years. Even if we end up with a backup C, that's actually a pretty good result considering where we're picking. I do agree that the chances of Cauley-Stein falling to the late teens is exceedingly slim.

The bigger point here is our disagreement on how to view the pick. The statement that you're looking for a "relevant NBA starter" is definitely one way to look at the draft and is generally the best way for a team drafting lower in the 1st. But typically, teams drafting later in the 1st are teams that are going to the playoff, now and in the future, who are looking for complementary players to their roster. I can't say we are in the same boat. I think we're a 7th seed this year, but we're also expected to lose a good portion of the roster to FA including arguably the best player in FA who is actually expected to switch teams at this point. Also, while I do think we have some pieces for a good core going forward, I don't think we have a core that should be considered complete at this time. Hence, I view this team as one of the teams that will probably have to take a step back before going forward. Because of this, I would view the goal of the 1sts to take the guys with the highest chance of being impact starters or stars instead of starters. This might not seem like much, but I think the overall difference in the players that would be targeted between us would be huge. You'd be willing to give up upside for floor while I'd be willing to give up floor for upside. Honestly, I'd guess your opinion here would match with Ferry's better than mine even if we haven't really seen what Ferry would do in the situation such as ours.
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Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#34 » by gurpilo » Sat Mar 16, 2013 8:53 pm

Center position is really deep.

Top players: Norel, Zeller, Len and Caulley Stein, we should take one of those if falls to us, no matter who is available.

Possible first round players: Ollynk, Austin, Gobert, Withey and Dieng. The first three carry more questions than realities now. Ollynk is not the kind of defensive force we are looling for and does not fit our team, Gobert and Austin are extremely thin, good prospects with some upside but a lot of questions how they will perform at another level, thin players not able to play on the paint... Reminds me Johnatan Bender, Ajinca... never had a place at the NBA. Withey could be a very good addition to the team if we could trade for a late first like Clippers, Minnesota or Cleveland's pick, don't know perhaps Scott and a 2nd rounder?

So in summary we really need a wing player, Porter, Robinson, Poythress, Goodwin would be good and I would definately us one pick on any of those.

There are 2 PG that really intrigue me and I think they are going to be special, MCW and Burke, I did not think MCW could fall to us but nbadraft has us taken him at 17th, I agree he has too much talent to pass and would be a good addition to the team, could fit well with Teague and Williams but if both are gone then we should go with a big and draft Gobert or Austin.
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Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#35 » by tcorbin » Sat Mar 23, 2013 5:44 am

After watching the tournament, i have no doubt in my mind that Mason Plumlee can play center in the NBA. MP reminds me of Noah when he was coming out of Florida, a 6'11 guy who has good feet, hustles like hell, but who is not over powering center, but can still hold his own in the paint.
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Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#36 » by Jamaaliver » Sat Mar 23, 2013 8:40 pm

Kelly Olynyk not appealing to anyone else?

With his strong post game and refined fundamentals, I think he could be a perfect complement to Horford. OFFENSIVELY. I see him having the same type of game as Brook Lopez.

Defensively, he definitely needs strong wing defenders in front of him.

Thoughts?
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Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#37 » by gurpilo » Sat Mar 23, 2013 11:16 pm

I don't think Ollynk is a good fit, we need a defensive center to pair him with Horford.
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Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#38 » by azuresou1 » Sun Mar 24, 2013 12:10 am

Kelly Olynyk is Luis Scola 2.0.

Olynyk is not a good fit with Horford, we'd be undersized, and I'm not sold on his ability to contribute in the NBA on both ends. I think he'd be pretty good value at wherever we're picking, but if we were to draft him I'd be looking to trade him to a contender or near-contender as a scoring big man off the bench.
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Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#39 » by Geaux_Hawks » Sun Mar 24, 2013 6:01 pm

azuresou1 wrote:Kelly Olynyk is Luis Scola 2.0.

Olynyk is not a good fit with Horford, we'd be undersized, and I'm not sold on his ability to contribute in the NBA on both ends. I think he'd be pretty good value at wherever we're picking, but if we were to draft him I'd be looking to trade him to a contender or near-contender as a scoring big man off the bench.

A 7 foot Scola is a Damn good piece to have on your team.
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Re: Official Draft Thread Part 2 

Post#40 » by Jamaaliver » Sun Mar 24, 2013 6:16 pm

Geaux_Hawks wrote:
azuresou1 wrote:Kelly Olynyk is Luis Scola 2.0.

Olynyk is not a good fit with Horford, we'd be undersized, and I'm not sold on his ability to contribute in the NBA on both ends.

A 7 foot Scola is a Damn good piece to have on your team.


Agreed.

And how would we be undersized with a 7-foot Center and 6-10 250 lb PF?

Olynyk and Horford would be comparable to Zachary Randolph and Marc Gasol.

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