Cap for 14-15 season

[theatlfan]

There is a report going around that the cap is expected to jump to $63.2M next season a substantial (and shocking) ~$5M jump from this season. The "standard guess" for the cap next season stood around $60M.

Before getting too excited here, let's remember that these numbers probably come from the Player's Union since the owners have no reason to put out a guess at this juncture. In many cases, the player's numbers will vary drastically from the owner's numbers. There was a case earlier in a different sport where the player's numbers had a team ~$10M under the cap while the owner's numbers had them right at the cap. Even so, I'm sure we can expect some increase in the cap next season and even the $60M "standard guess" looks low now.

Until D21 comes through, I'll list some thoughts for us. Assuming we don't exercise Ayon's option, we have 10 players under contract for next season totaling ~$48.75M. Further assuming that we'll offer QO's to Mack and Scott then our total goes up to a shade under $51M (EDIT Note: rotation players not under contract and no rights held for next season: Cartier Martin and Elton Brand). The 15th pick in this year's draft has a cap hold of ~$1.5M and the 16th pick last year (Nogueira) has a cap hold of ~$1.4M. Totaled this becomes 14 players at a shade under $54M. Under all these assumptions and no trades/other cap manipulation, then we're about $9M under the cap going into next season and have an extra couple of players to boot.

Thoughts?

[theatlfan]

One thought to float here is to put out there the best and most polarizing UFA this off-season: Lance Stephenson. I know many don't like him and think he'll be overpaid the minute he receives his next contract, but for my part, I think he's a jump shot and having a team where he can be "the guy" away from being a legit superstar. If we can do the same we did for Carroll - 28% career 3PT % coming into this season; 36% this season - for Stephenson - 32% career; 35% this season - then we could have a young building block going forward that we could put next to Horford and/or build around.

I've always felt that he could be had with a creative contract where he gets max to near max $$ up front, but the contract declines to make is more palatable for the team over the long haul (further, I see this as a very "Hawks" thing to do - all of our long term contract either remain idle or decline right now). All the rumors I've seen is that IND doesn't want to put a Max deal on the table and would prefer numbers in the 4 yr/$40M range. Hence, offering a deal that started at $14.88M (Stephenson's max) and decreased 4.5% every season would put IND in a bind. They'd be about $1.5M shy of the LT with only 9 players on the books - and that's before their draft pick. For us, the revelations of the current guessimate of the cap would mean that dumping Lou would get us very close to being there - before I had assumed we'd have to trade Teague.

[Jamaaliver]

^I'm a little fuzzy on the cap restrictions, but I don't believe teams are any longer allowed to start a contract at a max level and then descend every season. I believe cap hit would just be based on the average of the overall contract. (I might be a mistaken.) Also, I think rookie contracts can be covered by a rookie exception, so it won't be an issue bringing those guys over.

Regarding Lance....I'm indifferent on him. But paying him Josh Smith money considering his off court troubles, rumored on-court selfishness and limited production makes it a "NO" for me.

Lance's best season is 14 ppg. I'm unwilling to drop serious money on a troubled young guy who's never actually proven his worth on the court.

If we can't attract a guy like Gordon Heyward (who I think might be a real hit in our system), then I'd rather just aim for a mid-level wing. We got Lou and Jenkins at SG to provide scoring. James Young, Rodney Hood or Gary Harris in the draft could fill out the rotation with Demarre and Korver splitting time at SF.

[theatlfan]

^I'm a little fuzzy on the cap restrictions, but I don't believe teams are any longer allowed to start a contract at a max level and then descend every season. I believe cap hit would just be based on the average of the overall contract. (I might be a mistaken.) Also, I think rookie contracts can be covered by a rookie exception, so it won't be an issue bringing those guys over.

I haven't heard anything that would suggest that you can't have a declining contract on a max contract. Korv3r has a declining contract albeit for much less than the max. The only restriction I know about is that you can't have a huge payout in y1, then, say, $5M per thereafter - the contract can only up or down based on the same percentage of the $$ in y1 which is determined on whether you have Bird Rights (7.5%) or don't (4.5%). Maybe there is though - lots of minutiae in the CBA.

As far as the rookie contracts, you can go over the cap to sign the draft pick but you still have a cap hold from the time the pick is exercised. So you still have to calculate that in when determining how much cap room you have to offer FAs. The big reason for allowing teams to go over the cap to sign a pick is more for teams that are already over the cap before the off-season even begins to not lose their pick because of it.

Regarding Lance....I'm indifferent on him. But paying him Josh Smith money considering his off court troubles, rumored on-court selfishness and limited production makes it a "NO" for me.

Lance's best season is 14 ppg. I'm unwilling to drop serious money on a troubled young guy who's never actually proven his worth on the court.

If we can't attract a guy like Gordon Heyward (who I think might be a real hit in our system), then I'd rather just aim for a mid-level wing. We got Lou and Jenkins at SG to provide scoring. James Young, Rodney Hood or Gary Harris in the draft could fill out the rotation with Demarre and Korver splitting time at SF.

This is all a (very) fair criticism. There are significant issues with Lance both on the court and off with his attitude and "hair on fire" style. Having said that, I just see someone that would be a very good fit for us in a lot of areas. Rebounder, "Manu" role as SG penetrator, perimeter defender - these are areas that Lance excels. I expect him to be polarizing (honestly, I'd be concerned if there wasn't some detractors), but I also think for us to build ourselves into a championship contender we have to take some risks as well. I think Lance could work out very well for us - both immediately and down the road.

[MaceCase]

Even with the huge jump I don't think we'd be players in this year's free agency but I can envision scenarios where we perhaps help facilitate a move for another team. I'm thinking of Melo in particular, Chicago and Houston are the rumored suitors for his services so the Hawks would be in a position to absorb a deal like Asik's outright or move Louis for Boozer if it can net the Hawks considerable other assets. Deals like those won't impact the 2015 free agency but beyond being a cap haven for other teams in either free agency or trying to get out of a tax bill at the deadline I imagine Ferry will just sit on it. Al returning would be a larger impact than most any free agent signing and then Jenkins returning, 2nd year development under Bud of Dennis and Muscala in addition to Bebe possibly coming over could all be enough roster fortifying for the season.

[atlantabbq99]

Their is always Lebron James.....

I do like Heyward over Lance.

But Ferry could just hold off in spending money in 2014, stay competitive with Sap/Horford/Teauge and wait until 2015 with Arron Afflalo, Gerald Green, LaMarcus Aldridge, Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, and Danny Green are on the market.

[ATL Boy]

Their is always Lebron James.....

I do like Heyward over Lance.

But Ferry could just hold off in spending money in 2014, stay competitive with Sap/Horford/Teauge and wait until 2015 with Arron Afflalo, Gerald Green, LaMarcus Aldridge, Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, and Danny Green are on the market.

I'm a fan of going this route, as long we get a starting center (draft, get Bebe over here, find a vet for a a short contract ect). In the east, we'll be competitive with coach Bud at the helm: we were number 3 in the east until Horford went down, and now we have a legit chance of upsetting the number 1 seed without Al. I'd LOVE to get Kawhi here, he's already familiar with the Spurs system and he'd be the perfect SF for us.

[ATLHawksfan21]

Their is always Lebron James.....

I do like Heyward over Lance.

But Ferry could just hold off in spending money in 2014, stay competitive with Sap/Horford/Teauge and wait until 2015 with Arron Afflalo, Gerald Green, LaMarcus Aldridge, Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, and Danny Green are on the market.

It does look like there are a lot better fits for our needs and system in the 2015 group than the 2014 group.

It just feels good to have trust in any decision that our front office makes. I think ferry and bud will be patient and wait for the perfect fit.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[theatlfan]

Even with the huge jump I don't think we'd be players in this year's free agency but I can envision scenarios where we perhaps help facilitate a move for another team. I'm thinking of Melo in particular, Chicago and Houston are the rumored suitors for his services so the Hawks would be in a position to absorb a deal like Asik's outright or move Louis for Boozer if it can net the Hawks considerable other assets. Deals like those won't impact the 2015 free agency but beyond being a cap haven for other teams in either free agency or trying to get out of a tax bill at the deadline I imagine Ferry will just sit on it. Al returning would be a larger impact than most any free agent signing and then Jenkins returning, 2nd year development under Bud of Dennis and Muscala in addition to Bebe possibly coming over could all be enough roster fortifying for the season.

Their is always Lebron James.....

I do like Heyward over Lance.

But Ferry could just hold off in spending money in 2014, stay competitive with Sap/Horford/Teauge and wait until 2015 with Arron Afflalo, Gerald Green, LaMarcus Aldridge, Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, and Danny Green are on the market.

Now, sure, there's some value in zigging when everyone else is looking to zag and with the extra $$ on the books, you'd expect most teams to be looking to spend. But there's some problems with that. 1st, the '15 FA class has been heralded for a while now. Who's to say that everyone else wouldn't just be "zigging" with us?

2nd, we already have money earmarked for the '15 off-season. Millsap, Carroll, and Lou all expire after next season so we'll have ~$17.5M of freed money going into that off-season. In our case, Ferry has put us into a position where we can spend now *and* spend later if we so chose. Now, yes, if we dump Lou now, then we'd need to dump someone else later (well, maybe... depends - we probably wouldn't if Kawhi was a realistic target) but I really don't see that as an issue since I really don't see anyone on the team whose production vs pay leave them as a negative value player.

Last, and perhaps more importantly, there comes a point where you have to turn cap room into on-court production. I've defended Ferry for his execution and his plan in years 1 and 2 of his tenure but there's a stark reality here we have to weigh: Horford will be 28 just shy of a couple of months from now; Millsap turned 29 a little more than that ago. If we're going to build around them, then we need to pull the trigger on something more sooner than later. If we're unwilling to do that, then we need to trade them (both of them) more sooner than later.

[hawkschop1]

Personally, I think coach bud will try to convince EB to come back and play one more year and ferry will do it for the veteran's min. leaving bebe in spain for another year to develop.

leaving bebe overseas is better for our cap situation long term not to mention development.

I would like to re-sign mike scott and instead of mack lets spend a few more million for jodie meeks. could still come cheap (maybe even providing us with a hometown discount) and is a legit starting 2 in our system (ie: danny green)

the aging korver moves to the bench behind demarre and DS17 gets more playing time with no shelvin mack. If schroder struggles play lou williams at the pg spot.

thoughts on meeks > mack?

[theatlfan]

thoughts on meeks > mack?

Yeah, I'd think I'd pass on that. Meeks would probably be an upgrade on Mack, sure, but I think cap space is precious right now. We should have somewhere between $7-10M in open cap space this season and as long as we don't go over the cap too much, then we should have at least $16M next off-season. Dropping a few million more and eating into that cap space on such a mild upgrade really doesn't appeal to me much.

[Jamaaliver]

One thought to float here is to put out there the best and most polarizing UFA this off-season: Lance Stephenson.

All you need to know about this guy can be ascertained by his own teammates:

Team sources on Wednesday confirmed a Yahoo! Sports report that Turner and Lance Stephenson got into a practice-floor fight on the eve of Game 1 against Atlanta. But sources told ESPN.com it wasn't the first time in recent weeks that Stephenson has clashed with a teammate.

Sources said that Stephenson and guard George Hill had to be separated on the bench during a 26-point home loss to San Antonio on March 31. And when Roy Hibbert made his well-chronicled complaints to NBA.com in late March about "some selfish dudes in here," sources say he was essentially referring to Stephenson...

http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2014/story/_/id/10827330/2014-nba-playoffs-frank-vogel-indiana-pacers-coaching-job

[Jamaaliver]

After reading this comment below and mulling it over for an afternoon, I'd rather see us upgrade our bench.

The Hawks are the eighth seed, and they start a jump-shooting center (Pero Antic) who can't shoot and they have what is surely (right?) the worst bench in the NBA other than Louis Williams...

http://www.cbssports.com/general/writer/gregg-doyel/24536419/trouble-looms-but-pacers-beat-hawks-101-85-to-even-series

The fact that Cartier Martin & Shelvin Mack are our only wing options off the bench is telling. Neither of these guys can be depended on for guaranteed production on a nightly basis.

This team needs a talent upgrade almost across the board.
SG. Backup PG. Backup SF.
Hell...STARTING SF.

[ATLHawksfan21]

After reading this comment below and mulling it over for an afternoon, I'd rather see us upgrade our bench.

The Hawks are the eighth seed, and they start a jump-shooting center (Pero Antic) who can't shoot and they have what is surely (right?) the worst bench in the NBA other than Louis Williams...

http://www.cbssports.com/general/writer/gregg-doyel/24536419/trouble-looms-but-pacers-beat-hawks-101-85-to-even-series

The fact that Cartier Martin & Shelvin Mack are our only wing options off the bench is telling. Neither of these guys can be depended on for guaranteed production on a nightly basis.

This team needs a talent upgrade almost across the board.
SG. Backup PG. Backup SF.
Hell...STARTING SF.

I think a starting SF that can create off the dribble would solve two of those problems. It would make Korver more of a viable option at starting SG since we would have two guys that can create. It would move Carroll to backup SF and he is a quality backup SF. Korver and Carroll are nice players but starting them together puts a big load on Teague since neither one can create a shot for themselves or others.

It would be nice if we could snag a cheap backup PG like Augustin or Mills. Someone that could take the pressure off of Teague every once in a while.

[theatlfan]

Team sources on Wednesday confirmed a Yahoo! Sports report that Turner and Lance Stephenson got into a practice-floor fight on the eve of Game 1 against Atlanta. But sources told ESPN.com it wasn't the first time in recent weeks that Stephenson has clashed with a teammate.

Sources said that Stephenson and guard George Hill had to be separated on the bench during a 26-point home loss to San Antonio on March 31. And when Roy Hibbert made his well-chronicled complaints to NBA.com in late March about "some selfish dudes in here," sources say he was essentially referring to Stephenson...

http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2014/story/_/id/10827330/2014-nba-playoffs-frank-vogel-indiana-pacers-coaching-job

The most damning point in all these stories is the surly attitude. Many dismiss the fight as nothing more than "boys will be boys", but the attitude issue is something else entirely. Sucks because the current image Stephenson was being given was that many of those issues were a thing of the past... guess not.

I think a starting SF that can create off the dribble would solve two of those problems. It would make Korver more of a viable option at starting SG since we would have two guys that can create. It would move Carroll to backup SF and he is a quality backup SF. Korver and Carroll are nice players but starting them together puts a big load on Teague since neither one can create a shot for themselves or others.

It would be nice if we could snag a cheap backup PG like Augustin or Mills. Someone that could take the pressure off of Teague every once in a while.

As far as the SF part, should we revisit Jeff Green? I wouldn't be a fan of actually giving up value or eating into '15 cap room, but the realgm link (here) has the 2nd year being non-guaranteed. If by "eminently available", this means "give us a 2nd and an expiring and we're cool" and the part about the 2nd year being non-guaranteed is true (instead of a PO which is what I see everywhere else... but I guess it could be both), then I'd have no problem putting Lou+a 2nd on the table for him.

[ATLHawksfan21]

I would be up for a Lou Will + 2nd rd for Green swap if we couldn't find some wing help elsewhere. I wouldn't be interested in Green long term though. I believe we have the Nets second rounder as well as ours so we would still have a pick in each round.