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Hawks Center Fine With Remaining as Center

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Re: Hawks Center Fine With Remaining as Center 

Post#21 » by MaceCase » Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:47 pm

theatlfan wrote:Have to think that anyone who sees Payne's season thus far as anything but a major disappointment is sugar coating it. Coming into the draft, Payne's combination of age, experience, coaching, and physical gifts meant that he was supposed to be able to contribute to an NBA team immediately - if not as a regular rotation player, then as an energy big who could shoot a little. Even some of the points against (lung capacity was at the top of the list) has some mitigating factors for consideration (he had mono). At this point, we have to seriously reconsider the analysis. The fact that he hasn't beaten out last year's 2nd rounder for a roster spot speaks volumes here. Yeah, it's just one season and it's a bit too early to call him a bust, but the early returns are far from promising.


MaceCase wrote:So the complaint now is that instead of getting some burn and developing somewhere, you rather have him in a suit on the bench? His age doesn't matter, Bud and the Spurs have torn down and there have been articles to confirm that the old adage that players hit their prime by 28 and then it's all downhill isn't necessarily true. We have vets well past that point developing new skills and putting in career years. The team is 2nd in the entire league breaking records and opponents left and right yet some want to complain that some young guy isn't cracking the rotation of what looks like a contender? Even better, guys that look like bonafide role-players on lotto teams are being pined for and for what exactly? For the old debunked myth of Al needs to move to PF? The **** works from where I'm sitting but I guess complaining is a natural prerogative around here.
Whereas I agree that Coach Bud has gotten more from vets than they had given previously, I don't think we should discount the age factor here as easily as you suggest. There are several studies showing that the earlier in life a player is productive on the NBA level, the more you can expect out of him as time goes on. There is a little *duh* in that statement since phenoms are typically going to make the jump to the NBA faster than players who take time in developing, but this has also been shown with players selected in similar draft positions. On top of this, the peak years are typically gathered around the age 28 season and a standard bell curve fits around this mean. Just because Coach Bud is able to extract water from rock doesn't mean that we should simply throw these studies away... does it?

Still, considering Payne's age, I think we're all hoping that he will be the exception instead of the rule here. At the very least, that once he gets up to being productive, his game will, at the very least, have a much more gradual decline post-28 than his ascension to 28. Assuming that the optimists are correct and that Payne's early struggles are just a matter of integration into the league and nothing to be too concerned about, I think this is the best we can hope for.

Well a lot of this seems be taken in a vacuum while ignoring that this team is consistently destroying conventional adages on a daily basis so why should this topic be any different? What does mentioning beating out a 2nd rounder for the active roster spot have to do with his evaluation? It doesn't, fretting over 1>2 in terms of draft position is falling into that conventional thinking. If anything, Muscala (I assume you meant Muscala) has been instrumental in allowing Payne to learn the system because thanks to the team's DLeague tango it allowed them to place Payne on the Spurs' affiliate in Austin rather than receiving little structure in Fort Wayne. Beyond that, the record pace is being ignored. Is getting Payne time now worth plus ~3 wins to what looks like a current juggernaut or minus ~3 wins now for some off in the future payoff? Is it troubling that neither him nor that 2nd rounder can get time fulfilling a role over that undrafted 31 year old rookie that has managed to *gasp* improve so far in his sophomore season?

"Extracting water from a rock" may seem miraculous when viewed once but when you've watched Bud and the system do it across the span of the Rocky Mountains it starts to feel like old hat. In lieu of watching such consistent results, perhaps your evaluative tools should be adjusted to fit within the context of that which is unfolding in front of you.
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Re: Hawks Center Fine With Remaining as Center 

Post#22 » by Rip2137 » Tue Jan 13, 2015 9:38 pm

I think that sums it up. Are you willing to lose games so that Payne gets more NBA experience? There is nothing bust about his pick. Scott is expendable at the PF after this year, Brand might retire and Antic...who knows if he holds up throughout the year. Muscala and Payne will get their shot, if not this year, next year. There is just no room for "give him a look" right now.
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Re: Hawks Center Fine With Remaining as Center 

Post#23 » by ATL Boy » Tue Jan 13, 2015 10:44 pm

I never said he's a bust, I'd never say that about any player in his first year. I'm just saying that Payne was suppose to be a win now prospect in the draft. What my complaint is that if we were going to develop our rookie in the D-League for a year, why get the 24 year old whose ceiling isn't as high as some of the other prospects that were on the board at the time?
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Re: Hawks Center Fine With Remaining as Center 

Post#24 » by Hawk Eye » Tue Jan 13, 2015 11:32 pm

ATL Boy wrote:I never said he's a bust, I'd never say that about any player in his first year. I'm just saying that Payne was suppose to be a win now prospect in the draft. What my complaint is that if we were going to develop our rookie in the D-League for a year, why get the 24 year old whose ceiling isn't as high as some of the other prospects that were on the board at the time?


My best guess is because he was suppose to be like a "Millsap insurance" guy in case Sap bolts after this season and heads somewhere else.
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Re: Hawks Center Fine With Remaining as Center 

Post#25 » by theatlfan » Wed Jan 14, 2015 5:56 am

Guys, I have to agree with ATL Boy. Sure, it's too early to say "he's a bust" (I think we can all agree there) but there are warning signs that we're all hoping he can overcome. Typically, the reason that teams look to older players is that the expectation is that the adjustment period is shorter since they should have a firmer grasp on the level of competition below them. Without researching, I'd assume that Payne is the oldest draftee I've seen since I've been following the draft somewhere in the early '90s (well... outside of that one guy from Qatar or wherever - but that was fraud) and almost certainly if we restrict it to only 1st rounders. For some idea, if Lillard or McCollumn had stayed for a 5th year, both would have still been younger than Payne when drafted; Mike Muscala is younger than Payne today. Scouts (and fans) expect that a 5th year SR should be able to step onto an NBA club and fill a role immediately - especially for a team that is starving for someone that the kid supplies (ala, Payne and our rebounding). Further, Coach Bud has proven that he'll find minutes for kids that he thinks are close. Schröder got minutes early last year while we were still competing; Muscala played in practically every game he was on the roster last year even though we were fighting to hold onto that #8 seed. The fact that Payne not only doesn't have this in Coach Bud's eyes but is so far off that he'd prefer to let someone else take on the responsibilities of getting him through that period should be very, very concerning. Again, we all holding out hope that Payne can overcome these early warning signs, but we do need to accept that there are warning signs. That doesn't mean we shouldn't hope for the best and pray that tonight was a sign that Payne is overcoming his obstacles - just that we shouldn't be rationalizing these signs away.

MaceCase wrote:Well a lot of this seems be taken in a vacuum while ignoring that this team is consistently destroying conventional adages on a daily basis so why should this topic be any different? What does mentioning beating out a 2nd rounder for the active roster spot have to do with his evaluation? It doesn't, fretting over 1>2 in terms of draft position is falling into that conventional thinking. If anything, Muscala (I assume you meant Muscala) has been instrumental in allowing Payne to learn the system because thanks to the team's DLeague tango it allowed them to place Payne on the Spurs' affiliate in Austin rather than receiving little structure in Fort Wayne. Beyond that, the record pace is being ignored. Is getting Payne time now worth plus ~3 wins to what looks like a current juggernaut or minus ~3 wins now for some off in the future payoff? Is it troubling that neither him nor that 2nd rounder can get time fulfilling a role over that undrafted 31 year old rookie that has managed to *gasp* improve so far in his sophomore season?

"Extracting water from a rock" may seem miraculous when viewed once but when you've watched Bud and the system do it across the span of the Rocky Mountains it starts to feel like old hat. In lieu of watching such consistent results, perhaps your evaluative tools should be adjusted to fit within the context of that which is unfolding in front of you.
You missing one very large point: better coaches get more production out of players. Just because a guy is more productive under Coach Bud for a year or two than he was under a different coach before that does not necessarily mean that the player wasn't capable of producing more wins than he did before he played for Coach Bud. I don't think that Coach Bud has the magical ability to get more out of vets than they are otherwise capable of giving - just that Coach Bud is capable of getting more out of a player who is now a vet than the former UTH coach and our former coaches... and probably many, many others as well. In other terms, if you fit the Bell curve mentioned above to someone under Coach Bud, then the entire curve should go higher across the board for whatever positive metric you are measuring. IOW, Coach Bud isn't getting his water from making vets play over their heads; he is getting his water from giving vets more opportunities than previous coaches had pigeonholed the vets into and making sure they thrive at it. He can't / shouldn't be able to do this against himself.

Another point here: outside of maybe Korver (who was really good under Drew and in previous stops), there really isn't anyone that has improved significantly under Coach Bud and is over 30. Demarre and Millsap are in their late 20's (IOW, at their peak); I don't think that Thabo is heads and shoulders above where he was in OKC. Further, Thabo is only 30 - 2 years past 28. If you think about the bell curve above, then this would come out to mean that Thabo's production should be about what he was at 26 which is actually pretty close (very similar numbers across the board except FG% which is worse now). It isn't having a guy who's 30/31 on the roster that people are scared of, it's giving the guy who is 30/31 a brand new contract that goes for 5 more years which is the concern - especially one that has built in raises every year. I don't bring this up to denigrate Coach Bud's coaching ability - I think he's, at least, a very good coach who might be establishing himself as the best in our history - but I do think that to dismiss the statistical analysis because Coach Bud is a good coach would be very unwise.
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Re: Hawks Center Fine With Remaining as Center 

Post#26 » by atlantabbq99 » Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:36 pm

ATL Boy wrote:I never said he's a bust, I'd never say that about any player in his first year. I'm just saying that Payne was suppose to be a win now prospect in the draft. What my complaint is that if we were going to develop our rookie in the D-League for a year, why get the 24 year old whose ceiling isn't as high as some of the other prospects that were on the board at the time?



theatlfan wrote:Guys, I have to agree with ATL Boy. Sure, it's too early to say "he's a bust" (I think we can all agree there) but there are warning signs that we're all hoping he can overcome. Typically, the reason that teams look to older players is that the expectation is that the adjustment period is shorter since they should have a firmer grasp on the level of competition below them. Without researching, I'd assume that Payne is the oldest draftee I've seen since I've been following the draft somewhere in the early '90s (well... outside of that one guy from Qatar or wherever - but that was fraud) and almost certainly if we restrict it to only 1st rounders. For some idea, if Lillard or McCollumn had stayed for a 5th year, both would have still been younger than Payne when drafted; Mike Muscala is younger than Payne today. Scouts (and fans) expect that a 5th year SR should be able to step onto an NBA club and fill a role immediately - especially for a team that is starving for someone that the kid supplies (ala, Payne and our rebounding). Further, Coach Bud has proven that he'll find minutes for kids that he thinks are close. Schröder got minutes early last year while we were still competing; Muscala played in practically every game he was on the roster last year even though we were fighting to hold onto that #8 seed. The fact that Payne not only doesn't have this in Coach Bud's eyes but is so far off that he'd prefer to let someone else take on the responsibilities of getting him through that period should be very, very concerning. Again, we all holding out hope that Payne can overcome these early warning signs, but we do need to accept that there are warning signs. That doesn't mean we shouldn't hope for the best and pray that tonight was a sign that Payne is overcoming his obstacles - just that we shouldn't be rationalizing these signs away.


I think both of you are wrong. I have four points to make.

Pops doesn't care about age. Pops just drafts the players he wants. actually Pops doesn't even like to draft young guys, he was even hesitant in drafting Tony Parker at age 19, but assistant coaches insisted that Pops take a second look at Tony. it doesn't matter if Payne is 24yr, that is not a factor that Pops looks at, and i really shouldn't have to list all the +23yr players the Spurs have drafted over the years.

Pops and Budz don't play rookies, they rarely do and when they do, they are on a short leash. Just look at Tiago Splitter, Manu, George Hill, Dennis Schroder. They didn't do anything in their rookie year. Pops and Budz players usually start getting minutes in their 2nd or 3rd year. Schroder didn't get any minutes last year and people on this board thought Schroder was in Budz's dog house, but he wasn't, that is just how Budz develop players.

Payne hasn't bee playing, because the Hawks have been winning and don't need him. The Hawks' starters average the least minutes among all NBA starters and the Hawks' bench average the most minutes among other NBA benches. so what does this mean, it means that Budz is great at coaching, subing out guys, and resting guys. So if you have a team that is winning and starters that are getting enough rest, then why rush a rookie, its just dumb.

Finally, Pops and Budz coach a player from the neck up, not the neck down, it doesn't matter if a player is "NBA ready". it doesn't matter how young or old you are, Pops and Budz have to teach a player how to think basketball and not just play basketball.

If you are one of those people who are going to make a judgement on a player half way through their rookie year, then you are probably one of those people who would have cut Tiago Splitter, George Hill, Dennis Schroder, Boris Diaw, Danny Green, and Cory Joseph, after their rookie year. as for me, i would rather learn from the past then to just give up on a player after half a season.
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Re: Hawks Center Fine With Remaining as Center 

Post#27 » by theatlfan » Wed Jan 14, 2015 6:58 pm

atlantabbq99 wrote:I think both of you are wrong. I have four points to make.

Pops doesn't care about age. Pops just drafts the players he wants. actually Pops doesn't even like to draft young guys, he was even hesitant in drafting Tony Parker at age 19, but assistant coaches insisted that Pops take a second look at Tony. it doesn't matter if Payne is 24yr, that is not a factor that Pops looks at, and i really shouldn't have to list all the +23yr players the Spurs have drafted over the years.
Go ahead and list the players that Popp has drafted who were 23 years or older on Draft Night. With these comments, I think you'll be surprised.

The other piece this ignores is how many of the players Popp drafted did he send to the D-League and investigating those players to see if they made a significant contribution down the line (IOW, how much has Popp used the D-League as a Player Development tool versus an Orientation tool versus a "we're paying the kid anyway" situation). I have put up my thoughts on this ITT. Maybe they'll use the D-League to get the player a little burn like the 1-game Kyle Anderson played, but on the whole, I think it's pretty clear that if Popp thinks the kid will be a player, then he'll keep the rookie on the big club and let his staff develop him even if he isn't getting any PT. The fact that SAS was one of the 1st to own a D-League affiliate (and hence, the coaching staff there) makes this particularly eye opening.

atlantabbq99 wrote:Pops and Budz don't play rookies, they rarely do and when they do, they are on a short leash. Just look at Tiago Splitter, Manu, George Hill, Dennis Schroder. They didn't do anything in their rookie year. Pops and Budz players usually start getting minutes in their 2nd or 3rd year. Schroder didn't get any minutes last year and people on this board thought Schroder was in Budz's dog house, but he wasn't, that is just how Budz develop players.
1st, There's a distinct difference between getting a rookie 10-20 minutes most nights and not playing a rookie at all. For instance, Manu and Hill played more than 1,000 minutes their rookie seasons - for comparison, that's more than we played Pero last season. Payne is on pace for < 100. 2nd, you do realize that, statistically speaking, Schröder was on a pace for a historically bad season last year. He has talent to be sure, but his production wasn't up to snuff. I don't think he was benched because he was a rookie, he was benched because, on the whole, he wasn't that good. To Coach Bud's credit, when Schröder did get on a hot streak, then he played DS as we saw at the end of the season. Plus, I think most would agree that a kid who was barely 20 when the season started shouldn't be expected to play as much as someone who is more than a year older than Kyrie Irving.

I think we can all agree though that we sincerely hope that Payne's career arcs like that of Splitter though. Not sure the career paths match up to this point (it was unclear if Splitter would ever come over when drafted while Payne is just a really old college player), but the fact that Splitter was both older when he came over and took a year or 2 to acclimate is the BCS for Payne now. The problem is that most would agree that Splitter is the exception and not the rule so that means that we're basically hoping for lightning to strike twice. Also, the fact that Payne is sending so much time in the D League whereas Splitter spent all his with the A-team coaching staff and did get some PT is not a subtle difference.

atlantabbq99 wrote:Payne hasn't bee playing, because the Hawks have been winning and don't need him. The Hawks' starters average the least minutes among all NBA starters and the Hawks' bench average the most minutes among other NBA benches. so what does this mean, it means that Budz is great at coaching, subing out guys, and resting guys. So if you have a team that is winning and starters that are getting enough rest, then why rush a rookie, its just dumb.

Finally, Pops and Budz coach a player from the neck up, not the neck down, it doesn't matter if a player is "NBA ready". it doesn't matter how young or old you are, Pops and Budz have to teach a player how to think basketball and not just play basketball.
This is where I think some here are rationalizing. I put ITT lemmas, facts, and quotes that show the following:
1) Coach Bud (as well as Popp) will play rookies regardless of the team's standings. If the player helps you win, they will find a way to get them minutes. To insinuate that our rotation is so stiff that an athletic big who can supposedly shoot can't break into it is really laughable. H3ll, the '95-'96 Chicago Bulls would have found a way to get the kid some burn with that description.
2) Payne not only being "NBA Ready" but also coming from a program where we expected that he was already coached up to the point of being able to be an immediate contributor.
3) Not only is Payne not a contributor, he's not even at the point where Coach Bud is keeping him around so that our noted development staff would work with him. Hamm was already thought of as one of the premier big man developers in the league before we hired him so the fact that we're not even interested in getting Payne daily 1-on-1 time with him has to be worrisome.

atlantabbq99 wrote:If you are one of those people who are going to make a judgement on a player half way through their rookie year, then you are probably one of those people who would have cut Tiago Splitter, George Hill, Dennis Schroder, Boris Diaw, Danny Green, and Cory Joseph, after their rookie year. as for me, i would rather learn from the past then to just give up on a player after half a season.
Not sure why you're looking to be inflammatory here. Every time either ATL Boy or I have said anything, I think we've been clear to preface it with the fact that we are still hopeful that this will simply be a blip in Payne's career. We're just pointing out that we should be cognizant that there are some warning signs here. Why this would be a cause of someone completely jumping overboard and putting words into someone else's mouth is a bit beyond me.
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Re: Hawks Center Fine With Remaining as Center 

Post#28 » by jayu70 » Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:36 pm

Payne is not playing simply because there are guys in front of him with more experience and we are winning.
That's it. Nothing to do with age, not playing because he's a rookie (Dennis played as a rookie, Hell they brought Moose over from Spain mid season last season because of injuries). There is just no spot for him right now.
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Re: Hawks Center Fine With Remaining as Center 

Post#29 » by ATL Boy » Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:02 pm

I guess we can re-visit this already. Payne traded just half a season into his rookie year.
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Re: Hawks Center Fine With Remaining as Center 

Post#30 » by Jamaaliver » Wed Feb 11, 2015 3:15 pm

Yeah. What really stinks, we could likely survive an injury to any position...except Center.

At least we know for sure that Bud and Wes Wilcox aren't afraid to make aggressive moves even with GM and ownership in flux.

Let's just hope he's as savvy a personnel man as he is a tactician and motivator.
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Re: Hawks Center Fine With Remaining as Center 

Post#31 » by Jamaaliver » Wed May 27, 2015 3:47 am

We have to get a legitimate Center on this team to rebound, block shots and control the paint. He needs to be big and brutish. We don't need another jump shooter. We need a beast down low.

Eight years in and we've never provided AL a Center...ridiculous.

Tristan and Mozgov dominated the paint. we need to find guys capable of doing the same.

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