In 10 Years We'll be Saying...Blank...About Marcus Smart

[sam_I_am]

Can't believe we tanked for such a mediocre draft. But at least we got a warrior and a clutch competitor - good at everything and great at nothing except on defense.

We have about 6 lottery picks coming our way. If we build through the draft like OKC and draft 6 players as good as Smart - we will still be a lottery team. So while I like him a lot as a player, I still don't love him as a high lottery pick.

I guess my opinion hasn't changed in 2 years. Not the quality of player hoped for out of a tanking year in a the supposed draft of the decade but best player in my opinion on the board and a guy who at the right price is a key cog in a contending team. A leader who has a knack for making winning plays.

[brackdan70]

In 10 years he will be the Cs starting PG, signed to a 5 year 200 million dollar contract..which isn't that bad because the midlevel is 18 million a year. he has been to a couple all star games but has been under-rated his whole career because his main contributions don't show in the box score. That said he is 15/8/5 player who has also averaged better than 2 steals a game for his career. his nickname was changed from Smarticus to The Lacerator in the 2019 when he "inadvertently lacerated Dwight Howard's spleen running through a pick in a meaningless game. Cs will have won 2 more championship in 2020 and 2021, made it to the finals in 2019, made to the ECF in 2022 and 2023 losing to Orlando (Elfrid Payton is better than Smart...doh!!!!) and dropped down to first round elimination in 2024 due to Knee injury to Kelly Oubre. Jared Sullinger, who will be 33, is a FA next season and the Cs are at a crossroads to sign the aging PF to another hefty contract or let him go.... is it time to rebuild or reload?

[NuckyPowell]

Great defender, offensively challenged. Should have drafted Elfrid Payton. And I hope I'm totally wrong about that... 10 years from now.

Smart >>>> Payton. It isn't really that close, either.

Alex Kennedy ‏@AlexKennedyNBA 3m3 minutes ago

Over the last four games, Orlando's Elfrid Payton is averaging 16.5 points (on 54.9% from the field), 7.8 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 2.3 steals.

D'oh!

[BfB]

Can't believe we tanked for such a mediocre draft. But at least we got a warrior and a clutch competitor - good at everything and great at nothing except on defense.

Defense is half of the game....If Smart ends up good at everything on offense but only great at defense, I will take that for the #6 selection. Smart has played pretty darn well and overall is moderately ahead of where I thought he would be right now when it comes to his overall game. I expected him to drive moderately better by now but not shoot 3's like he has under his hot streak and play under such control(given his strengths/limitations this is a good thing).

Going into the draft on a relative basis, I wasn't that high on Exum(very risky since he just didn't play that much against the better NBA prospects but I liked his court vision and handle for a combo guard), Randle(I was down on him when some people were projecting him as a potential #1 pick!) and Parker compared to those players hype/draft selections but I l liked Wiggins, Embiid(very risky but high enough upside that is hard to ignore), Gordon and Smart.

I don't know why you are saying it was such a mediocre draft with so little data available right now. You have to look at performance based upon the players ages and expectations for their growth in the NBA.

Have you caught Wiggins last 10-12 games? I was the leader of the tank for Wiggins brigade and he ended up being underrated on draft day and even after the draft as well. If healthy, he is probably the future top 4 to 10 NBA player like I said in the summer or fall of 2013 had a very good chance of happening instead of just an ordinary all-star which I thought was another reasonable projection. I read on the internet where some people pretty much only focused on stats had Wiggins as a 50% chance of being a relative bust...(I love stats but I trust my eyes as well!) When projecting players, I like to make my projections assuming no debilitating injury since I am not a doctor and so I am not qualified to render a medical judgement on whether a players knee or foot is going to blow up like a Brandon Roy. I placed Wiggins relative bust odds around the time of the draft at perhaps 5-10% and right now I would lower that 5-10% to about 2%. Why? Andrew Wiggins who turns 20 this Feb -- split stats for January which is his last 8 games -- the 5 games before that are similar. 20.9 PPG, 5.3 rebounds and 3.0 with a TS% of 56.9%. Granted the Wolves are lousy and without their 3 best players heading into the season so he wouldn't get that opportunity to score/play as much on a good team but on the other hand, he would probably have much more open looks if Cleveland had kept him.

Before Parker got hurt, he was well ahead of Wiggins on offense and off to a good NBA start and leading the ROY competition. Who knows what Parker would have started doing 20 more games into his rookie year. Would he have jumped 2-3 levels on offense like Wiggins or just 1? I suspect just 1 but we will never know. Parker is risky but it is silly to suggest he doesn't have a lot of upside if he just becomes moderately more athletic and works on his game. He could be a relative bust or a legit 5-8 time all-star. His rookie year was going how I expected but it sucks that he got an ACL injury. Easier to overcome ACL injury at a younger age but I am not going to sit here and say Parker will be 99% post injury since he may or may not be.

Embiid is hurt for the year and was on draft day so can't include him but he is the one player that most NBA scouts said had more upside than Wiggins. I tend to agree with those scouts BUT I would have probably wanted to draft healthy Wiggins ahead of healthy Embiid -- unless Embiid shoed more during the 2nd half of the KU season -- since I thought Wiggins had a greater probability for being a top 10 NBA player than Embiid. I can make the case for Embiid being 90% as good as Hakeem which makes him a HOFer well worth the number 1 pick and I can make the case of him being 90% as good as Robert Parish which is not a player I would want to select #1 in a draft like last year with Wiggins still on the board.

Gordon/Exum both ridiculously young. And before injury, Aaron Gordon was putting up some impressive stats for his limited minutes and I believe was even doing OK from the free throw line! When a young 19 year old can post a PER of 15.2 and TS% of 64.5%, it is impressive. Exum off to a weaker start but doesn't turn 20 until July.

We have about 6 lottery picks coming our way. If we build through the draft like OKC and draft 6 players as good as Smart - we will still be a lottery team. So while I like him a lot as a player, I still don't love him as a high lottery pick.

First year performance doesn't correlate to 5th year outcomes worth a **** - just need to be getting PT and USG thise first 2-3 years. Mastery and refinement typically occur in years 5-7 when a player's understanding of how to apply his skill set often reaches a plateau. Physical maturation, game experience, and team continuity all feed into how a player applies his peak game.

Marcus Smart needs to learn how to change speeds and directions off his lane penetration attempts. He's got the body and the legs to do it, but he is still getting used to the fact that pure straight line speed and power are no longer highly efficient weapons for him - he's going to have to learn how to bait defenders into being off balance so he can leverage contact for fouls and finishes in the lane. This is not A-typical for most guards, its just more oronounced when the kid isn't explosive or quick. With quads and shoulders like that and a creative/agressive mindset, I think he'll progress nicely over time with patience. He isn't likely to become a consistent threat offensively for a few seasons, based off what he's shown to date...but these progressions aren't linear. He could bust out auickly if he figures siem things out.

[sully00]

Great defender, offensively challenged. Should have drafted Elfrid Payton. And I hope I'm totally wrong about that... 10 years from now.

Smart >>>> Payton. It isn't really that close, either.

Assertion is great and all, and I hope you're right, but that hasn't been the case thus far.

Smart: 39% FG, 34.8% 3PT, 53.3% TS, 50.4% eFG, .084 WS/48

Payton: 40.8% FG, 20% 3PT, 43.5% TS, 42.2% eFG, .016 WS/48

Like I said; not that close.

I guess you didn't feel like including rebounding and assist numbers, where Payton's are better. Smart may turn out to be the better player, but your repeated assertion that he's >>>> Payton simply isn't true to this point.

There is a lot in this if your going to look at statistically. Payton has played 44 games to Smart's 25. Payton's first 35 games including 16 starts were a train wreck offensively and they were not offset by his rebounding and assist totals he was really bad. He has had a nice 9 game run in Jan especially the last 4. Interestingly Payton has double the scoring and assist avg at home than on the road. I went to look at his assist numbers because along with blocked shots (steals to an extent) is a subjective stat that the home town scorer can stuff for a guy. This happened here with Rondo when they were trying to establish him as a "star" in '09-'10 he had 2.5 more apg at home vs on the road.

I think we will see Smart's role expanded after the deadline assuming he stays healthy you can start to get more of a feel of where both players are. From what I read and hear people around the league are far more impressed with Smart's shooting especially from 3 than concerned with the volume of his stats at this point. With the concern remaining with Payton will he ever be able to shoot/score efficiently from anywhere. He is a disaster outside of 3ft and the sample size is pretty big.

[ParticleMan]

smart's biggest calling card is his defense which doesn't show up in those stats. it's funny that his stats are actually pretty similar to payton's, actually better in scoring, but everyone is so down on smart's offense. in the end both are pretty good players, far too early to tell who will be better, but the kind of defensive tenacity that smart has you can't teach and can be a game changer.

[sam_I_am]

smart's biggest calling card is his defense which doesn't show up in those stats. it's funny that his stats are actually pretty similar to payton's, actually better in scoring, but everyone is so down on smart's offense. in the end both are pretty good players, far too early to tell who will be better, but the kind of defensive tenacity that smart has you can't teach and can be a game changer.

Stats also don't show that defenders have a hard time staying in front of Payton which allows him to penetrate the defense and dish closer to rim. Smart has not shown that kind of quickness. I honestly haven't watched a lot of Payton but in summer league and one game against us that I watched, he looked like a more natural PG and playmaker with plus size and speed. Smart on the other hand looks like a Chauncey Billups type and needs to become a good outside shooter to succeed like Billups. I think both will pan out to be very good picks but Payton's road seems to depend more on maturity and less on development of an outside shot.

[ParticleMan]

yeah it's clear payton is the better and more natural playmaker. i like him. just not enough to say that we should have drafted him... yet

not tht this is the defining defensive stat but opponents PER for payton is a ghastly 20, while for marcus it's a very respectable (particularly for a rookie) 14.5.

[165bows]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/zachlowe_nba/status/557558822672531457[/tweet]

[RondoToKG]

NBA legend

[JJHondo17]

I can't believe one year after trading Kevin Garnett, we drafted the Kevin Garnett of Point Guards!!!!!

[ryaningf]

I can't believe one year after trading Kevin Garnett, we drafted the Kevin Garnett of Point Guards!!!!!

I want to believe that Smart's leadership is on par with KG's, but here's my question: how long did it take KG to become KG, i.e., when his mere presence on the court made guys play harder. I know KG "changed the culture" immediately in Boston, but I'm assuming it took awhile to build into that when he came into the league at 18. I also know that by the end of his tenure in Minn that his leadership wasn't enough and probably had worn down some of the people in that organization. Anybody follow the Wolves during the early part of KG's career?

[humblebum]

I think he'll be the captain in 10 years. Guys with his intangibles and defensive ability are just very, very rare. Ultimate blue collar player and as he gains experience I think the lynchpin of his offensive game will be on the low post a la Mark Jackson. Really think that Smart is a vastly underrated passer and his vision of the floor is just really good at his size. Very happy the Celtics have Marcus Smart to lead this rebuilding group.

[tooler]

Magic fan here in peace. I was nodding along to everything here and then noticed a few posts about Smart being better on defense than Elfrid, with a tone that it was pretty obvious. I haven't seen Smart play since Summer League, but if he's that much better than Elf, you've got a perennial defensive MVP on your hands!

What is Smart's defensive style like? Payton plays with a gadfly style in the vein of Patrick Beverley. It wasn't until the Portland game that he found a way to consistently apply his defensive mentality. He got so frustrated at the team's effort that he started picking up Lillard full court. It caught on and changed the entire team's identity. (Their faster, more aggressive pace explains Payton's recent surge in offense.)

Defensive metrics are weird. The team posts a nice -4.5 opponent offensive rating while he's on court, which includes time as a starter and off the bench. He has also been among the top three NBA point guards in ESPN's DRPM all season, which is supposed to adjust for quality of teammates and opponents. Kevin Pelton wondered if he was the best defensive point guard in the East in a recent Insider article. But some of those metrics depend on what you think of ESPN and Pelton.

Anyway, it might be closer than you think. I don't care who is better since I've fallen in love with Elfrid's introverted competitive personality and his clutch play on both ends. It's going to be fun watching both of them grow. I hope they both take these hyped-up NBA point guards down a notch or two.

In fact, say hi to Lillard for us on Thursday!

[darrendaye]

What is Smart's defensive style like?

I do think some people are too dismissive of Payton's defense to prop up Smart. Payton is quicker than Smart and can stay in front of a greater percentage of the league's point guards. Smart has been hampered recently by ankle and then foot ailments, but he is not as explosive regardless. Where Smart stands out is his strength (as use of that strength), effort level, awareness, and anticipation. Smart runs around and through picks (just ask Demarcus Cousins). He positions himself well for taking charges and has the bulk and willingness to absorb the contact, even if he can be prone to flop too often. He will bump cutters of all shapes and sizes. Dude boxes out centers on the defensive glass and just yesterday had a great defensive sequence where he was mismatched on Blake Griffin, Griffin tried to back Smart down, didn't happen, and Griffin was forced to pass out. Finally, Marcus can get steals in a variety of ways, dig steals, rips, and great anticipation in the passing lanes. Payton currently is outpacing Smart in the steals category by a little bit, it should be pointed out for balance here.

[tooler]

What is Smart's defensive style like?

I do think some people are too dismissive of Payton's defense to prop up Smart. Payton is quicker than Smart and can stay in front of a greater percentage of the league's point guards. Smart has been hampered recently by ankle and then foot ailments, but he is not as explosive regardless. Where Smart stands out is his strength (as use of that strength), effort level, awareness, and anticipation. Smart runs around and through picks (just ask Demarcus Cousins). He positions himself well for taking charges and has the bulk and willingness to absorb the contact, even if he can be prone to flop too often. He will bump cutters of all shapes and sizes. Dude boxes out centers on the defensive glass and just yesterday had a great defensive sequence where he was mismatched on Blake Griffin, Griffin tried to back Smart down, didn't happen, and Griffin was forced to pass out. Finally, Marcus can get steals in a variety of ways, dig steals, rips, and great anticipation in the passing lanes. Payton currently is outpacing Smart in the steals category by a little bit, it should be pointed out for balance here.

Interesting, thanks. It sounds like weight will be the key difference throughout their careers. I don't have as much of an eye as you do for team defense but he's more than game to help on post-ups. Early in the season I noticed he sometimes freelanced a long way from his assignment only to get burned by 3s. He's cleaned that up a lot. (Someone probably told him he's no longer playing in the Sun Belt.) He gets over screens just fine except for a stretch early this year where he looked like he was being "too patient" if that makes any sense. He cleaned that up too. I still don't think screens put a glimmer in his eye as much as on-ball defense on the press. I suspect he will lean more toward the gadfly prototype though more strength this offseason will help.

I've noticed a similar variety of steals. He demonstrated his anticipation during that recentOladipo 360, for example. He loves to steal in-bounds passes on teams that aren't paying attention. Very much a pest. He certainly won't box out centers but he'll be there to grab the rebound and start a break. I'd love to see him be a top 5 rebounder among PGs. He's 9th right now per 36 so we'll see.

[djFan71]

Someone mentioned it before, but I think his floor at this point is Derek Fisher with better defense. I'll take that. Great leadership, clutchness and 5 rings.

That's assuming he keeps his 3 pt % up, and doesn't learn to drive. If he develops/displays any kind of dribble penetration / pick n roll game, keeps the D and the 3s - you're talking an All-star.

[djFan71]

Edit: double post.

[KGboss]

In 10 years we will be saying Marcus was a hell of an assett as he with the help of other lottery picks and established players we aquire over the next few years bring us to a couple of championships.

The nay-sayers will bow before the mans greatness and announce "we are not worthy!"

[15th overall]

As long as we can say he was the BPA@6--- I'm all peaches.