Official Draft Thread 2015-16

[165bows]

If we stay at number three, I feel certain it will be Jaylen Brown. He is the classic Danny draft pick: Big, strong, athletic, loves to run, huge potential on defense. I would be shocked if we took Bender.

Brown is struggling a lot though. I like the body and the attitude you get with him but he's a non-shooter and from what I've seen I'm not sold on his BBIQ being very strong. With someone like Simmons if he can't shoot he can facilitate. Brown's offensive floor is frighteningly low.

Yeah his body is like Winslow but I'm thinking his game might be more DeRozan in type. Just has to get to the rim.

[Gomes3PC]

I'd be personally disappointed if we took Brown over Dunn, as I am a diehard Friar fan, but I would at least understand why. Younger, fills a position of greater need, plenty of upside.

As far as the comp goes, he's more Derozan than Winslow because he's longer and more athletic than Winslow, but nowhere near as strong or sound defensively. Winslow can't really shoot yet either - his college 3PT% was a bit of a mirage I think as it was almost all spot-up's and plenty from the corner. He's struggled mightily from 15+ feet (38% from 16-23 feet, 26% from 3).

Derozan is a nice player - if that's what he becomes as a base comp, no complaints there. If he develops a 3, you're talking a really valuable all-around offensive player like Khris Middleton.

[Duke4life831]

My question for you and anyone who can give some speculation is, with the game changing to small ball, pace and space, passing type of game different from the 90's and early 2000's, is a take over type of player needed anymore? If all 5 players are versatile could that be enough? Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant was the era of the ISO. it was give me the ball for 4 quarters and get out of my way. That can make for some fun times, but with the passing game evolving or being rediscovered, teams are rediscovering ways to effectively collapse defenses as long as you have the right personnel.

He is great for that except that jumper. If you want to play that pace and space game you need your guys to be able to spread out the D. Simmons is going to run into some problems like he did last night. Spangler played him great and just sagged off of him and dared him to shoot 15ft jumpers and he wouldnt take them and just passed the ball. That jumper is just a really big red flag to me especially in this age of having 4 guys spread the court

So what does your draft board look like?

I've had Simmons at 1 all year until about 2 weeks ago. Right now I have

1. Ingram
2. Simmons
3. Dunn
4. Rabb
5. Poeltl
6. Brown
7. Demetrius Jackson
8. Ellenson

That's my top 8. I don't know a thing about the international guys except for a couple youtube highlights. So you can toss in the international guys wherever you like. I think after 1 and 2 there is a really big gap then Dunn has a solid grip on 3. 4,5, and 6 seem to rotate daily for me and Jackson is the dude I think is going to surprise a lot of people

[Slartibartfast]

Teams who don't go BPA in the top 5 end up with huge mistakes. Take the best player. Don't overthink it.

I agree, but BPA is hard to determine for me #3-#6. Bender has the age and size and theoretical skillset to be a top 3 pick but the stats with Maccabi are hugely underwhelming. Dunn has fantastic physical tools to go with a great skill level, but he's got major efficiency issues as a 4th year guy in college. Brown is half of a great player. Poeltl doesn't look the part of a franchise big, but his productivity and defensive ability is hard to ignore.

[BRUNiNHO91]

For people that know both of them, how similar are Jaylen Brown and Justise Winslow? I don't watch much college ball, but from a few videos, they look like they have very similar games and both similar physically also. Is Brown's defense legit like Winslow's? Something tells me that's Danny's pick if we don't go top 2.

Not very similar at all, Jaylen is more like Stanley Johnson, worse shooter better athlete, than Justise

Thanks man. I'm cool with that since I actually like Stanley Johnson more than Winslow.

[Gomes3PC]

Teams who don't go BPA in the top 5 end up with huge mistakes. Take the best player. Don't overthink it.

I agree, but BPA is hard to determine for me #3-#6. Bender has the age and size and theoretical skillset to be a top 3 pick but the stats with Maccabi are hugely underwhelming. Dunn has fantastic physical tools to go with a great skill level, but he's got major efficiency issues as a 4th year guy in college. Brown is half of a great player. Poeltl doesn't look the part of a franchise big, but his productivity and defensive ability is hard to ignore.

Dunn has a 28 PER and is shooting 46/39/69 from the field, averaging 1.31 points per shot. Not sure that's an issue with efficiency. His teammates outside of Bentil are collectively shooting 39% from the field and are averaging just 1.11 PPS. To put it bluntly, his teammates have sucked. Hence some of the high turnover games - with some decent shooters he'd probably average 2-3 more APG.

[Slartibartfast]

Teams who don't go BPA in the top 5 end up with huge mistakes. Take the best player. Don't overthink it.

I agree, but BPA is hard to determine for me #3-#6. Bender has the age and size and theoretical skillset to be a top 3 pick but the stats with Maccabi are hugely underwhelming. Dunn has fantastic physical tools to go with a great skill level, but he's got major efficiency issues as a 4th year guy in college. Brown is half of a great player. Poeltl doesn't look the part of a franchise big, but his productivity and defensive ability is hard to ignore.

Dunn has a 28 PER and is shooting 46/39/69 from the field, averaging 1.31 points per shot. Not sure that's an issue with efficiency. His teammates outside of Bentil are collectively shooting 39% from the field and are averaging just 1.11 PPS. To put it bluntly, his teammates have sucked. Hence some of the high turnover games - with some decent shooters he'd probably average 2-3 more APG.

55TS% is solid but not dominant for a guy with that much seasoning. Compare that to Buddy Hield (an outrageous 70TS%) or Valentine (61TS%) among 4th year guys with superior scoring volume. Obviously Dunn's defensive playmaking and dynamic shot creation put him in a different tier, but as a scorer he's not all that impressive.

[165bows]

I agree, but BPA is hard to determine for me #3-#6. Bender has the age and size and theoretical skillset to be a top 3 pick but the stats with Maccabi are hugely underwhelming. Dunn has fantastic physical tools to go with a great skill level, but he's got major efficiency issues as a 4th year guy in college. Brown is half of a great player. Poeltl doesn't look the part of a franchise big, but his productivity and defensive ability is hard to ignore.

Dunn has a 28 PER and is shooting 46/39/69 from the field, averaging 1.31 points per shot. Not sure that's an issue with efficiency. His teammates outside of Bentil are collectively shooting 39% from the field and are averaging just 1.11 PPS. To put it bluntly, his teammates have sucked. Hence some of the high turnover games - with some decent shooters he'd probably average 2-3 more APG.

55TS% is solid but not dominant for a guy with that much seasoning. Compare that to Buddy Hield (an outrageous 70TS%) or Valentine (61TS%) among 4th year guys with superior scoring volume. Obviously Dunn's defensive playmaking and dynamic shot creation put him in a different tier, but as a scorer he's not all that impressive.

Agree, he is 90th out of the draft express top 100 prospects in points per play, and around 25th in scoring volume. I think the more spread out game helps him, but he isn't a top flight scorer in the NBA IMO. I'd expect 15-16 ppg on 53% TS type of thing.

I definitely haven't seen him as much as some, but my impression is that it's the rest of his game that makes him as noteworthy as he is.

[sully00]

I agree, but BPA is hard to determine for me #3-#6. Bender has the age and size and theoretical skillset to be a top 3 pick but the stats with Maccabi are hugely underwhelming. Dunn has fantastic physical tools to go with a great skill level, but he's got major efficiency issues as a 4th year guy in college. Brown is half of a great player. Poeltl doesn't look the part of a franchise big, but his productivity and defensive ability is hard to ignore.

Dunn has a 28 PER and is shooting 46/39/69 from the field, averaging 1.31 points per shot. Not sure that's an issue with efficiency. His teammates outside of Bentil are collectively shooting 39% from the field and are averaging just 1.11 PPS. To put it bluntly, his teammates have sucked. Hence some of the high turnover games - with some decent shooters he'd probably average 2-3 more APG.

55TS% is solid but not dominant for a guy with that much seasoning. Compare that to Buddy Hield (an outrageous 70TS%) or Valentine (61TS%) among 4th year guys with superior scoring volume. Obviously Dunn's defensive playmaking and dynamic shot creation put him in a different tier, but as a scorer he's not all that impressive.

But that is the thing Dunn isn't scorer he is a pass first PG who has evolved into a scorer, has a an assist% of 46 he is averaging 7 assist per game for the second year in a row even with the high topg number and he has some moments trust me, he only has a TO% of 18. This is the second year he has lead the country in assist%.

[No-Man]

Dunn is playing with crap compared to what Hield has around him, give Dunn the spacing Hield has and he would be leading the race for POY, not even close.
Dunn can be a bigger Lowry, their offensive game already looks similar, and his shooting is much further ahead than Klow's at the same stage.

[Gomes3PC]

Dunn has a 28 PER and is shooting 46/39/69 from the field, averaging 1.31 points per shot. Not sure that's an issue with efficiency. His teammates outside of Bentil are collectively shooting 39% from the field and are averaging just 1.11 PPS. To put it bluntly, his teammates have sucked. Hence some of the high turnover games - with some decent shooters he'd probably average 2-3 more APG.

55TS% is solid but not dominant for a guy with that much seasoning. Compare that to Buddy Hield (an outrageous 70TS%) or Valentine (61TS%) among 4th year guys with superior scoring volume. Obviously Dunn's defensive playmaking and dynamic shot creation put him in a different tier, but as a scorer he's not all that impressive.

But that is the thing Dunn isn't scorer he is a pass first PG who has evolved into a scorer, has a an assist% of 46 he is averaging 7 assist per game for the second year in a row even with the high topg number and he has some moments trust me, he only has a TO% of 18. This is the second year he has lead the country in assist%.

This. He ranks 2nd nationally in assist rate. He's probably one of the few "true" point guards left out there. And his TS% is much lower than Hield and Valentine because he has exactly one useful player on his roster. There's 4-5 shots a game he takes simply because nobody else gets open and he has to make a play for his team.

His "seasoning" is also misleading, as he missed 1.5 years to a shoulder injury. He has only 82 career college games vs. 130+ for Valentine and 115 for Hield. That's a full season of games - makes a huge difference.

If you want a player in this draft who will be your #1 scorer, Dunn is not that guy. Dunn is going to be a Rondo-like box score guy, 15 points, 7 assists, 5 boards, 2 steals a night, with clamps-down defense at the point.

[No-Man]

Dunn is not Rondo, and he is going to be a good scorer in the league, think similar to Lowry in his prime 20-5-7-2-1

[No-Man]

I mean, OU shoots 46% overall, and has a bunch of excellent shooters, Dunn is the second best by % and the one that scores the most, the whole team shoot it at 30%, the difference is huge.
Hield has to be judge within his consequences, you take Dunn and plug him in OU instead of Hield and he would run away with POY honors, not even close.

[Edug27]

Simmons played a great game tonight. Explosive drives to the basket and even hit 3-4 silky smooth jump shots.

[greenroom31]

Hield has to be judge within his consequences, you take Dunn and plug him in OU instead of Hield and he would run away with POY honors, not even close.

Your credibility is plummeting.

[BfB]

If we stay at number three, I feel certain it will be Jaylen Brown. He is the classic Danny draft pick: Big, strong, athletic, loves to run, huge potential on defense. I would be shocked if we took Bender.

Brown is struggling a lot though. I like the body and the attitude you get with him but he's a non-shooter and from what I've seen I'm not sold on his BBIQ being very strong. With someone like Simmons if he can't shoot he can facilitate. Brown's offensive floor is frighteningly low.

Yeah his body is like Winslow but I'm thinking his game might be more DeRozan in type. Just has to get to the rim.

Brown is busty as hell - doesn't olay with a plan and never has. I think the NBA game is going to twist his cap. Things are already too fast for him.

He'd be the last guy i'd take, to be honest.

[Gomes3PC]

Derozan didn't know WTF he was doing a lot coming into the league too. To his credit, he's a gym rat and learned the game in the NBA. Not common, but if Brown has similar love of the game / work ethic, he can develop that aspect. Not sure I'd risk the 3rd/4th pick on that though unless I was CERTAIN of his effort to improve himself a la Smart.

[Patsfan1081]

1) Ingram 2) Simmons 3)Bender 4)Dunn 5)Elleson 6)Murray 7) Brown 8)Buddy 9)Poeltl 10)Rabb

I'm starting to come around on Elleson and believe he'll end up a top five pick. His shot just looks so fluid and once he puts on more muscle he could become a great rebounder. If Boston can't get a agreement on a buyout with Bender then I would hope they would take a long look at Elleson with the Nets pick. I would also love to see them put a package of picks together to move up and get Stone but I'm afraid he might move up the boards and land in the top twelve. He's another guy that has looked great recently despite Maryland's reluctance to start him.

Walter football just updated their mock today. They have Boston taking Skal with the third pick. His upside might still be there but I just don't see anyway you can use a top three pick, let alone a lottery pick,on a player that has had a season like Skal has.

[Patsfan1081]

Hield has to be judge within his consequences, you take Dunn and plug him in OU instead of Hield and he would run away with POY honors, not even close.

Your credibility is plummeting.

I kind of agree, a Dunn/Cousins back court would put up crazy points. Cousins might be the best three point shooter in Div 1, you putt Dunn on the team anud the floor opens up so much more

[Gomes3PC]

Frankly Dunn would look great on any of Philly, Minny, or New Orleans. Put him with some talented bigs like Okafor, KAT or Davis and he will thrive in the high P&R game.