ParticleMan wrote:been out of internet contact but i'm sort of back and just wanted to say i'm SUPER stoked about jaylen. once it was clear bender wasn't going to set himself apart brown was my guy all the way. you guys are going to love this kid, just give him a chance and have a bit of patience.
the fact is only 3 guys in this draft have MVP potential and it's no coincidence they were the first 3 chosen. jaylen i'd argue might have the highest MVP potential of them all, but he is very raw and so yeah he has higher bust potential too. in our position we've got to swing for the fences, and jaylen is a total swing for the fences kind of pick. but given his tools, athleticism, and work ethic, his floor is pretty damn high too. it's just not going to happen right away.
jaylen is a potential STUD. gotta agree with Banners on this one. i will now don my winter coat here in hell.
These are exactly my thoughts. I hoped someone would really separate from the pack, and no one did. Hoped hype for Dunn, Bender, Hield, anyone would improve the value of the pick or be an obvious choice for us. The way the Bender hyped died down was disturbing.
Taking Dunn and to auction off would be dangerous - once we drafted him we'd have a logjam and the lowball offers would start. I worry he's just a glorified Smart. Hield was interesting but possibly one dimensional and undersized.
That leaves Bender vs Brown. The lack of noise after Bender's workouts was a red flag to me. I hoped he'd show some improved athleticism, but without that what's the upside? A decent all around big, but maybe not a star. Even if he's better than Porzingis at 18, does that necessarily mean he'll continue to develop? Taking an 18 year old who hasn't shown much at the next level is dangerous. Maybe's he's DaJuan Wagner or Cliff Alexander. Maybe he's Olynyk.
Of course the same and similar arguments apply against Brown, and he doesn't have Bender's size to fall back on. He's athletic and smart, but does he actually have much skill? Big bust potential.
Basically I think Brown has higher upside but lower floor compared to Bender (with Hield even safer but with lower upside) - at #3 anything less than a superstar is a failure to some extent, so I think I agree with the pick.