Ainge is right, extreme high schoolers never fail

[bbd24]

I think the number he said was 28 of 29....The Kobe's, KG's, etc. This includes the one and dones, but those elite high school prospects that the scouts have pinpointed from the start don't fail.

Simmons & Brown were big time high schoolers. Elite.

Tough to bet against this pick. Swing for the fence type pick.

[Andrew McCeltic]

I mean, you can go back and look at the rankings of each recruiting class. It's not absolutely true, just taking the top 5 every year. Eyeballing, about half bust. The encouraging thing is that it's usually for athleticism-related reasons, not talent reasons.

[Andrew McCeltic]

But if Jaylen had played a role like Wiggins' at Kansas, the scouting report would be a lot different. So it is smart to look at context and not just judge a player in a way that erases past performance and talent.

[threrf23]

Here are a list of all wing players from the past 10 classes with a consensus HS rank between 4-12 (Brown's consensus rank was 7 i.e. no one ranked him below 7, Ingram's was 14, source = https://sites.google.com/site/rscihoops/)

Jaylen Brown
Stanley Johnson
Kelly Oubre
Justin Jackson
Jabari Parker
Aaron Gordon
Aaron Harrison
James Young
Kyle Anderson
Anthony Bennett
MKG
Brandon Beal
Quincy Miller
LeBryan Nash
Brandon Knight
Tobias Harris
Perry Jones
Avery Bradley
Xavier Henry
Lance Stephenson
Tyreke Evans
Demar DeRozan
OJ Mayo
Eric Gordon
Mike Beasley
Kyle Singler
Thad Young
Chase Budinger
Wayne Ellington

If you limit to players who turned 19 prior to December 1st of their first college season, you get:

Jaylen Brown
Justin Jackson
Aaron Harrison
Kyle Anderson
Anthony Bennett
Quincy Miller
LeBryan Nash
Perry Jones
Avery Bradley
Lance Stephenson
Tyreke Evans
Demar DeRozan
OJ Mayo
Kyle Singler
Wayne Ellington

Wings ranked top 3 (Wiggins as a random example) by a consensus (i.e. they played on the wing in HS and no one ranks them below 3) are typically almost literally sure things. Jaylen Brown was not that.

[bbd24]

But if Jaylen had played a role like Wiggins' at Kansas, the scouting report would be a lot different. So it is smart to look at context and not just judge a player in a way that erases past performance and talent.

Crazy thing is, they're murdering this guy for his shot, yet compare his stats with sharpshooter Buddy Hields frosh stats & Browns are better in about the same amount of minutes.

So I'd slow down a bit on the critiques. Gotta let this 19 yr old hog beast develop.

[bbd24]

Here are a list of all wing players from the past 10 classes with a consensus HS rank between 4-12 (Brown's consensus rank was 7 i.e. no one ranked him below 7, Ingram's was 14, source = https://sites.google.com/site/rscihoops/)

Jaylen Brown
Stanley Johnson
Kelly Oubre
Justin Jackson
Jabari Parker
Aaron Gordon
Aaron Harrison
James Young
Kyle Anderson
Anthony Bennett
MKG
Brandon Beal
Quincy Miller
LeBryan Nash
Brandon Knight
Tobias Harris
Perry Jones
Avery Bradley
Xavier Henry
Lance Stephenson
Tyreke Evans
Demar DeRozan
OJ Mayo
Eric Gordon
Mike Beasley
Kyle Singler
Thad Young
Chase Budinger
Wayne Ellington

If you limit to players who turned 19 prior to December 1st of their first college season, you get:

Jaylen Brown
Justin Jackson
Aaron Harrison
Kyle Anderson
Anthony Bennett
Quincy Miller
LeBryan Nash
Perry Jones
Avery Bradley
Lance Stephenson
Tyreke Evans
Demar DeRozan
OJ Mayo
Kyle Singler
Wayne Ellington

Wings ranked top 3 (Wiggins as a random example) by a consensus (i.e. they played on the wing in HS and no one ranks them below 3) are typically almost literally sure things. Jaylen Brown was not that.

Were all those 'Elite' type high schoolers ? They may have been ranked high technically, but not necessarily Elite. Not sure how Ainge was quantifying them. He said 28 out of 29. And he of course thinks Simmons & Brown are in that Elite category from this class.

[celticfan42487]

Oh so you mean someone like Skal Labissiere who was projected as a top 2 pick out of highschool for this class due to his hype?

The kind of player we could of had in the late first?

[bbd24]

Oh so you mean someone like Skal Labissiere who was projected as a top 2 pick out of highschool for this class due to his hype?

The kind of player we could of had in the late first?

I don't really know how Ainge quantified it. Was he talking just US born ? & not foreigners like Skal ?

[threrf23]

Were all those 'Elite' type high schoolers ? They may have been ranked high technically, but not necessarily Elite. Not sure how Ainge was quantifying them. He said 28 out of 29. And he of course thinks Simmons & Brown are in that Elite category from this class.

It depends on the definition of 'elite.' They were all top 4-12 by a consensus according to 'final' rankings on the RCSIhoops site - meaning that, for example, each scouting outlet agreed that Jabari Parker was top 6 or better in 2013, each scouting outlet agreed that LeBryan Nash was top 6 or better in 2011, each scouting outlet agreed that James Young was top 11 or better in 2013. Each scouting outlet agreed that Jaylen Brown was top 7 or better in 2015.

In terms of RCSI (average rank between scouts), Brown was top 3. 'Reke Evans, OJ Mayo, and Kyle Anderson are other top 3 RCSI guys on the last list above. Jabari Parker and Stanley Johnson fall in this category too but were younger (albeit 5-7 months younger).

Now, if you go back 10+ years and look at SFs - guys who played SF in HS and not PF like Harrison Barnes who was a post player in HS - who were ranked top 3 or better by every scouting outlet and were younger than 19 as a freshman (or rookie), here is the list you get:

Andrew Wiggins
Kevin Durant
Luol Deng
Carmelo Anthony

If you count older players, you can add Bazz Muhammad to the list. Lebron probably belongs on the list but he doesn't show up in any of the rankings for whatever reason (ETA he was 19 as a rookie and probably stayed an extra year in HS which may have screwed with the lists).

[The Corey's]

Not against Brown at all. Was just against taking a player instead of finding a way to trace it

It is what it is at this point and now I gotta hope the kid pans out for us

[celticfan42487]

Oh so you mean someone like Skal Labissiere who was projected as a top 2 pick out of highschool for this class due to his hype?

The kind of player we could of had in the late first?

I don't really know how Ainge quantified it. Was he talking just US born ? & not foreigners like Skal ?

Skal moved to America before he went to college. 6 years ago which makes it in what, middle school? Actually had an injury in highschool that he missed his senior year. But was so dominate in his first year as a highschool freshman he got the scholorship offer from Kentucky right then and there.

I only point this out, because Ben Simmons made the exact same point as Ainge earlier today, just about Skal not Jaylen.

[bbd24]

Oh so you mean someone like Skal Labissiere who was projected as a top 2 pick out of highschool for this class due to his hype?

The kind of player we could of had in the late first?

I don't really know how Ainge quantified it. Was he talking just US born ? & not foreigners like Skal ?

Skal moved to America before he went to college. 6 years ago which makes it in what, middle school? Actually had an injury in highschool that he missed his senior year. But was so dominate in his first year as a highschool freshman he got the scholorship offer from Kentucky right then and there.

I only point this out, because Ben Simmons made the exact same point as Ainge earlier today, just about Skal not Jaylen.

When Ainge said 28 out of 29, who was the one failure ? Was it Oden ? Was he an elite high schooler ?