Is Davis the front-runner for RoY?

[CBB_Fan]

To be honest, I say no. Before I get burned, this is my reasoning:

1. His greatest skill is less effective in the NBA
Davis had an astounding 13% block percentage in college, second only to Jeff Withey of Kansas (15%). However, don't expect that type of production in the NBA. No player that played real NBA minutes has ever averaged over 10.8%. Only Manute Bol and Alonzo Mourning have averaged over 10%. This is due to the larger, more skilled players, as well as the different rules of the NBA (most importantly, the longer 3PT line and 3 second defensive lane violation). Expect him to average between 7 and 8%, and somewhere between 2 and 3 blocks per game. A reasonable number would be about 2.5.

2. He hasn't played well against NBA-sized opponents.
In games against John Henson, Cody Zeller, and Jeff Withey, Davis averaged less than 10 points. This could be because he struggles with length, or because of foul trouble. Either way, give him a grace period to adjust to the increased physicality of the NBA post game. Not only will players have a significant weight different from those he played in college, but they'll in general have a better idea of how to exploit the weight difference. However, I expect Davis will put on 20+ pounds with his frame, and that this issue won't affect him for more than a few years. However, his most important issue is:

3. Lack of offensive opportunities
Davis will not be a first option on the Hornets. He won't be a second option. He might not even be the third option. With a team full of volume shooters, I wouldn't expect Davis to get as many touches as some other rookies. While he should still be efficient, he won't put up a lot of points, especially if he doesn't get as many dunks or offensive put-backs in college (which accounted for ~70% of his offense). I expect rookies like Beal, TRob, Barnes, or even his fellow rookie Austin Rivers to get more PPG because they will take more shots.

I think a reasonable statline would be 8-7-2 for his rookie season. While he will be efficient and still a presence on defense, I think a scorer's league like the NBA will give the RoY to one of those more scoring oriented players. Even if Davis gets more shots than I'm expecting and ends up with 16ish PPG, I don't think he'll get the award, because virtually every previous winner averaged closer to 20.

[Liver_Pooty]

No, and its not really close.

Will he be the best player out of this draft? Yeah, with Gilchrist being a closer than expected second.

[GreenRiddler]

Lillard.

[Coleblue77]

I hope Davis does good since I live in New Orleans. It looks like we should have a bright future with him and if Austin Rivers can improve. But I really Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has the talent to be a great NBA player. He was my NCAA player last year, so I hope he does good and doesn't go away.

[[RCG]]

Uh oh...

[JoeyH]

^Don't be a dick.

[Dezmondballins3]

IF MONTY WILLIAMS ISNT A **** DUMB ASS WHICH I REALLY THINK HE WILL BE BECAUSE HE SAID DAVIS ISNT GOING TO BE THE NEXT TIM DUNCAN.... WHY THE **** NOT IT WILL BE BECAUSE HE WONT UTILIZE HIM ENOUGH

[Jakapoo]

IF MONTY WILLIAMS ISNT A **** DUMB ASS WHICH I REALLY THINK HE WILL BE BECAUSE HE SAID DAVIS ISNT GOING TO BE THE NEXT TIM DUNCAN.... WHY THE **** NOT IT WILL BE BECAUSE HE WONT UTILIZE HIM ENOUGH

Calm down there.
Tim Duncan is one of the best power-forwards of all time. Having that high of expectations is setting your self up for a major disappointment. Anthony Davis will be a great player most likely, but he probably won't be that good.

As for the question, he might be, but I don't think so. I think his type of game will take a year or two to transfer fully to the NBA.

[cpfsf]

To be honest, I say no. Before I get burned, this is my reasoning:

1. His greatest skill is less effective in the NBA
Davis had an astounding 13% block percentage in college, second only to Jeff Withey of Kansas (15%). However, don't expect that type of production in the NBA. No player that played real NBA minutes has ever averaged over 10.8%. Only Manute Bol and Alonzo Mourning have averaged over 10%. This is due to the larger, more skilled players, as well as the different rules of the NBA (most importantly, the longer 3PT line and 3 second defensive lane violation). Expect him to average between 7 and 8%, and somewhere between 2 and 3 blocks per game. A reasonable number would be about 2.5.

2. He hasn't played well against NBA-sized opponents.
In games against John Henson, Cody Zeller, and Jeff Withey, Davis averaged less than 10 points. This could be because he struggles with length, or because of foul trouble. Either way, give him a grace period to adjust to the increased physicality of the NBA post game. Not only will players have a significant weight different from those he played in college, but they'll in general have a better idea of how to exploit the weight difference. However, I expect Davis will put on 20+ pounds with his frame, and that this issue won't affect him for more than a few years. However, his most important issue is:

3. Lack of offensive opportunities
Davis will not be a first option on the Hornets. He won't be a second option. He might not even be the third option. With a team full of volume shooters, I wouldn't expect Davis to get as many touches as some other rookies. While he should still be efficient, he won't put up a lot of points, especially if he doesn't get as many dunks or offensive put-backs in college (which accounted for ~70% of his offense). I expect rookies like Beal, TRob, Barnes, or even his fellow rookie Austin Rivers to get more PPG because they will take more shots.

I think a reasonable statline would be 8-7-2 for his rookie season. While he will be efficient and still a presence on defense, I think a scorer's league like the NBA will give the RoY to one of those more scoring oriented players. Even if Davis gets more shots than I'm expecting and ends up with 16ish PPG, I don't think he'll get the award, because virtually every previous winner averaged closer to 20.

I’ll give you credit for arguing against the #1 pick.

1+2) True, not every guy can match their college production. I think he will average 3 to 3.5 BP36. It’s really not that farfetched considering that Andersen, Aldrich, and McGee fall within that average. Your 2.5 BPG average (I’m assuming per 36) would make him ranked 20th in BP36, which is still pretty solid.

3) Davis isn’t a renowned scorer, but it’s his underrated efficiency that will help the team win thanks to his low turnovers, high FG%, frequent trips to the line, and his rebounding abilities.

Here’s where I might get flak. If you asked me to pick between Davis winning ROY and Davis not winning ROY, I would still choose Davis to win it. I think a lot of the voters will take the teams success into consideration; granted Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson will be contributing factors (I think Anderson is at times overrated). Cavs, Wizards, Hornets, Kings, Raptors, and Warriors had between 20-23 wins (Cats had 7). Hornets are going to make a turnaround, and voters will be heavily influenced by that.