Is Davis the front-runner for RoY?
Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 5:07 am
To be honest, I say no. Before I get burned, this is my reasoning:
1. His greatest skill is less effective in the NBA
Davis had an astounding 13% block percentage in college, second only to Jeff Withey of Kansas (15%). However, don't expect that type of production in the NBA. No player that played real NBA minutes has ever averaged over 10.8%. Only Manute Bol and Alonzo Mourning have averaged over 10%. This is due to the larger, more skilled players, as well as the different rules of the NBA (most importantly, the longer 3PT line and 3 second defensive lane violation). Expect him to average between 7 and 8%, and somewhere between 2 and 3 blocks per game. A reasonable number would be about 2.5.
2. He hasn't played well against NBA-sized opponents.
In games against John Henson, Cody Zeller, and Jeff Withey, Davis averaged less than 10 points. This could be because he struggles with length, or because of foul trouble. Either way, give him a grace period to adjust to the increased physicality of the NBA post game. Not only will players have a significant weight different from those he played in college, but they'll in general have a better idea of how to exploit the weight difference. However, I expect Davis will put on 20+ pounds with his frame, and that this issue won't affect him for more than a few years. However, his most important issue is:
3. Lack of offensive opportunities
Davis will not be a first option on the Hornets. He won't be a second option. He might not even be the third option. With a team full of volume shooters, I wouldn't expect Davis to get as many touches as some other rookies. While he should still be efficient, he won't put up a lot of points, especially if he doesn't get as many dunks or offensive put-backs in college (which accounted for ~70% of his offense). I expect rookies like Beal, TRob, Barnes, or even his fellow rookie Austin Rivers to get more PPG because they will take more shots.
I think a reasonable statline would be 8-7-2 for his rookie season. While he will be efficient and still a presence on defense, I think a scorer's league like the NBA will give the RoY to one of those more scoring oriented players. Even if Davis gets more shots than I'm expecting and ends up with 16ish PPG, I don't think he'll get the award, because virtually every previous winner averaged closer to 20.
1. His greatest skill is less effective in the NBA
Davis had an astounding 13% block percentage in college, second only to Jeff Withey of Kansas (15%). However, don't expect that type of production in the NBA. No player that played real NBA minutes has ever averaged over 10.8%. Only Manute Bol and Alonzo Mourning have averaged over 10%. This is due to the larger, more skilled players, as well as the different rules of the NBA (most importantly, the longer 3PT line and 3 second defensive lane violation). Expect him to average between 7 and 8%, and somewhere between 2 and 3 blocks per game. A reasonable number would be about 2.5.
2. He hasn't played well against NBA-sized opponents.
In games against John Henson, Cody Zeller, and Jeff Withey, Davis averaged less than 10 points. This could be because he struggles with length, or because of foul trouble. Either way, give him a grace period to adjust to the increased physicality of the NBA post game. Not only will players have a significant weight different from those he played in college, but they'll in general have a better idea of how to exploit the weight difference. However, I expect Davis will put on 20+ pounds with his frame, and that this issue won't affect him for more than a few years. However, his most important issue is:
3. Lack of offensive opportunities
Davis will not be a first option on the Hornets. He won't be a second option. He might not even be the third option. With a team full of volume shooters, I wouldn't expect Davis to get as many touches as some other rookies. While he should still be efficient, he won't put up a lot of points, especially if he doesn't get as many dunks or offensive put-backs in college (which accounted for ~70% of his offense). I expect rookies like Beal, TRob, Barnes, or even his fellow rookie Austin Rivers to get more PPG because they will take more shots.
I think a reasonable statline would be 8-7-2 for his rookie season. While he will be efficient and still a presence on defense, I think a scorer's league like the NBA will give the RoY to one of those more scoring oriented players. Even if Davis gets more shots than I'm expecting and ends up with 16ish PPG, I don't think he'll get the award, because virtually every previous winner averaged closer to 20.
