Please critique my analysis

[jazzfan1971]

#17 - New Orleans Pelicans

PG - Jrue Holiday, Brian Roberts
SG - Eric Gordon, Anthony Morrow
SF - Tyreke Evans, Al-Farouq Aminu
PF - Ryan Anderson, Jason Smith
C - Anthony Davis, Greg Stiemsma
D - Austin Rivers, ?, ?

This is the Monta Ellis of the NBA. The Pelicans have it all. They've got an All-Star PG. A top tier SG (when healthy and motivated), a multi-dimensional SF, a stretch 4, and a 2 way center. Then I think they've got a fantastic bench. But, also like Monta, they just dont' seem to be winners. This team only won 27 games last season.

But, I don't expect this to be a repeat of last season. I see one of those Cinderalla stories here. Like when the 8th seed Nuggets beat the Sonics back in '94. They just have that kind of lightning in a bottle feel to them. Could I see Greg Stiemsma rolling around on the floor holding the game ball after knocking off the Thunder in a game 7, yeah. I really could see that. But, first they'd have to make the playoffs and in the West I only have them as the 11th best team. (but, I'm hoping for them to do better)

Eric Gordon could be a nice sleeper pick. Folks will probably shy off after being burnt the last couple years, so he might drop down into a nice value situation.

Projected record: 42/40 (The Denver Nuggets had a 42/40 record in 94. Just saying.)

[tsherkin]

Well, if Eric Gordon plays more than 60 games, then we have something to talk about. 09-10 was the last time that happened (62 GP), so I think looking at him as a "top tier SG" is a little bit ambitious on that front alone, never mind that he's not really as dynamic as Harden, Old Kobe, Old Wade, etc, etc.

He's a scorer who looks a little like Harden in the sense of him approaching things with 3s and FTAs, but his mid-range game (and indeed, specifically his long two-pointer) is also poor, much like Harden's, yet he lacks the same level of playmaking ability. In short, not stunned, don't think they should have matched the offer sheet.

The Pelicans were an above-average offensive team last year but the third-worst defense in the league. Holiday should help with that. Evans at SF... maybe not so much. He's a guard, so I really hope they don't play him at the 3, because that's just bad for him at either end of the floor. The addition of Reke as a primary penetration specialist will be good for Ryan Anderson, though, and hopefully he can go back to being really awesome on the glass and hyper-skilled at sticking set 3s, sort of like an incredibly rich-man's Steve Novak.

Jrue is a turnover-prone player with weak scoring skills but he's a solid passer and his defense will be plus value to this team. If Evans can come in and give them something like 18-20 ppg and around 5 apg on solid efficiency, then they will probably be in the low/mid 30s just as his dribble penetration gives the desired effect of making everyone else's lives easier. They were 11th in 3P% last season, but will they be again this season? Hopefully. Anderson should lead the way there, and then just a couple of roleplayers here and there should float that.

Realistically, though, Gordon should be coming off of the bench, Evans playing at the 2 and they should seek out a 3+D guy at the SF position.

Anthony Davis is going into year 2, and should hopefully be healthy. He missed almost 20 games last year as the team was cautious post-concussion, but as a rook, that makes sense. Didn't have the desired impact immediately as a defender, but the shot-blocking is there and the rebounding is there, so it's a great start. Much better on O than expected, I think. Needs more range, but he's young and he's got great promise. If he can post 17/10 on strong efficiency again while shoring up his D a little, maybe get into things a bit more with Holiday running the PnR and operating in transition, then it's entirely possible that the Pelicans could take a shot at .500 if they stay healthy all season.


Not a bad projection. We'll have to see how everyone actually performs, but they have a compelling young big and added a project guard who is a bit of a risk but has loads of upside if he can just play his natural position and keep things simple. Reke needs a jumper and to just work on decision-making, but we did see last year that he can change his approach and simplify, which is very encouraging for the Pelicans.

At the upper end of this team's potential, Evans comes in and rocks out for something like his rookie season but with a little bit more experience and savvy, Davis plays 70+ and shows some improvement and they threaten for like the 6th or 7th seed. Not a bad time to be a Pelicans fan, they're looking to be on the rise.

[NO-KG-AI]

Can't see Tyreke or Ryan Anderson starting, at least not initially. We'll be much better than last year just by young players growing, and hopefully via health too. We're a lot more talented than last year, and lost a lot of tightly contested games that could have swung for a more experienced team.

[tsherkin]

Reke is the best player on the team apart from Davis, so I'd be a little shocked if he didn't start out of the gate unless he has a brutal training camp/preseason.

[lorak]

#17 - New Orleans Pelicans

PG - Jrue Holiday, Brian Roberts
SG - Eric Gordon, Anthony Morrow
SF - Tyreke Evans, Al-Farouq Aminu
PF - Ryan Anderson, Jason Smith
C - Anthony Davis, Greg Stiemsma
D - Austin Rivers, ?, ?

S5 would be different:

Holiday-Gordon-Aminu-AD-Smith

bench:
Anderson and Tyreke (around 30 MPG each) and then others. Maybe Withey will get significant minutes from the bench. Rivers also should play some minutes (15-20) because staff wants to develop him.

Miller might be important rotation player - IMO he would play more than Morrow.


Overall, if healthy Pelicans are lock for playoffs. Top 5 defensive team in the NBA.

[lorak]

Reke is the best player on the team apart from Davis, so I'd be a little shocked if he didn't start out of the gate unless he has a brutal training camp/preseason.

Coaches already said that Evans role would be 6th man, similar to Manu in San Antonio.

And I disagree he's 2nd best Pelicans player. AD, Anderson and healthy Gordon - all of them are better.

[NO-KG-AI]

I don't think Anderson is better, but I think Gordon is the better fit for what we want to do with the starting lineup than Tyreke is.

I think any combo of Jrue, Gordon, and Tyreke at the 1/2 can fit well together though.

[tsherkin]

Coaches already said that Evans role would be 6th man, similar to Manu in San Antonio.

Yes, but what coaches say and what actually happens are often very different things. That said, it's likely it starts that way until they can see what they have and if last year happened because of the reduced role or because of improvement overall.

And I disagree he's 2nd best Pelicans player. AD, Anderson and healthy Gordon - all of them are better.

Healthy Gordon isn't better. Anderson is better suited to the role he plays, but not necessarily a better player. Evans' top-end ability is superior to either player. Gordon is a fairly limited player and "healthy Gordon" is essentially an oxymoron anyway.

[Durins Baynes]

I definitely think the Pelicans are a good shot for the playoffs this year, for reasons I'll go into in a second. Firstly though, I think your line-up is wrong. The likely line-up is:

PF- A.Davis, R.Anderson
SF- Aminu, , Reke, D.Miller
C- J.Smith, A.Davis, Stiemsma
SG- E.Gordon, Reke
PG- Holiday, Morrow

Reke off the bench in the Manu role works perfectly, because Morrow is there as a shooter (not the primarily ball handler), while the rest of the line-up shifts depending on whether they want to play small ball (Ryan Anderson), or big and slow (J.Smith, who is a good defender if nothing else).

Their record last year is a bit misleading, because:
1) Eric Gordon missed a lot of time, and it wasn't all injuries. The man was clearly unhappy with the front office. I'd say that's over with though given how good the team looks (especially with how bad Phoenix has been). He could definitely have played more games and more minutes. The team didn't push it though, because they were tanking.
2) A.Davis, after looking great early and leading the Hornets to a surprisingly good record, was limited to 30mpg, supposedly as a precaution because of his injuries. While that might have been one consideration, this was also another subtle tank job ploy.
If the Hornets weren't sitting on Davis and Gordon, and doing other things to also tank, then the team would have won about 35 games no problems. Since then they've had a massive infusion of talent, and their young guys will be better and more experienced. I think they'll be one of the surprising teams this year.

[Wilfried]

The frontcourt of the Pelicans will be destroyed, night after night after night ...

Only Davis as a defender, rebounder and he is still not strong enough to bang consistantly.

Hopefully he stays healthy, but team is just not good enough.

JRue, Gordon and Tyreke aren't superstars either. Just young talented players, but none of them has been a winner so far. Not sure if one of them has that winner mentality.

[AnthonyDavis23]

Well, if Eric Gordon plays more than 60 games, then we have something to talk about. 09-10 was the last time that happened (62 GP), so I think looking at him as a "top tier SG" is a little bit ambitious on that front alone, never mind that he's not really as dynamic as Harden, Old Kobe, Old Wade, etc, etc.

He's a scorer who looks a little like Harden in the sense of him approaching things with 3s and FTAs, but his mid-range game (and indeed, specifically his long two-pointer) is also poor, much like Harden's, yet he lacks the same level of playmaking ability. In short, not stunned, don't think they should have matched the offer sheet.

The Pelicans were an above-average offensive team last year but the third-worst defense in the league. Holiday should help with that. Evans at SF... maybe not so much. He's a guard, so I really hope they don't play him at the 3, because that's just bad for him at either end of the floor. The addition of Reke as a primary penetration specialist will be good for Ryan Anderson, though, and hopefully he can go back to being really awesome on the glass and hyper-skilled at sticking set 3s, sort of like an incredibly rich-man's Steve Novak.

Jrue is a turnover-prone player with weak scoring skills but he's a solid passer and his defense will be plus value to this team. If Evans can come in and give them something like 18-20 ppg and around 5 apg on solid efficiency, then they will probably be in the low/mid 30s just as his dribble penetration gives the desired effect of making everyone else's lives easier. They were 11th in 3P% last season, but will they be again this season? Hopefully. Anderson should lead the way there, and then just a couple of roleplayers here and there should float that.

Realistically, though, Gordon should be coming off of the bench, Evans playing at the 2 and they should seek out a 3+D guy at the SF position.

Anthony Davis is going into year 2, and should hopefully be healthy. He missed almost 20 games last year as the team was cautious post-concussion, but as a rook, that makes sense. Didn't have the desired impact immediately as a defender, but the shot-blocking is there and the rebounding is there, so it's a great start. Much better on O than expected, I think. Needs more range, but he's young and he's got great promise. If he can post 17/10 on strong efficiency again while shoring up his D a little, maybe get into things a bit more with Holiday running the PnR and operating in transition, then it's entirely possible that the Pelicans could take a shot at .500 if they stay healthy all season.


Not a bad projection. We'll have to see how everyone actually performs, but they have a compelling young big and added a project guard who is a bit of a risk but has loads of upside if he can just play his natural position and keep things simple. Reke needs a jumper and to just work on decision-making, but we did see last year that he can change his approach and simplify, which is very encouraging for the Pelicans.

At the upper end of this team's potential, Evans comes in and rocks out for something like his rookie season but with a little bit more experience and savvy, Davis plays 70+ and shows some improvement and they threaten for like the 6th or 7th seed. Not a bad time to be a Pelicans fan, they're looking to be on the rise.

Can we really call Jrue a weak scorer? Before J-Rich and before Doug Collins quit on the Sixers Holiday was much more efficient.


November:

18.5 ppg, 9.3 apg, 3.4 rpg, 1.3 spg, 46.2%/79.2%

December:

19.2 ppg, 8.1 apg, 4.9 rpg, 1.2 spg, 44.9%/69.4%

January:

20.9 ppg, 8.9 apg, 4.2 rpg, 1.9 spg, 48.0%/81.8%

February:

17.9 ppg, 7.5 apg, 4.3 rpg, 1.5 spg, 43.5%/67.9%

March:

16.3 ppg, 8.2 apg, 4.8 rpg, 2.1 spg, 39.4%/70.2%

April:

12.7 ppg, 4.2 apg, 3.3 rpg, 1.2 spg, 33.8%/84.2%

[tsherkin]

He's still a weak scorer. I'm not worried about his volume, I worry mostly about his anemic draw rate, his inconsistent finishing ability around the rim, his unimpressive shot and so on. He's not a good scorer.