orioles @ cubs 8/22-8/24

hermes · Post #1 » by **hermes** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:52 am

orioles (73-52) @ cubs (55-72)

game 1: arrieta vs. gausman 1:20 pm
game 2: hendricks vs. norris 1:20 pm
game 3: wada vs. gonzalez 1:20 pm

orioles are pretty good, actually looking over the remaining schedule everyone is pretty good - so there is plenty of spoiler potential for us

go cubs!

hermes · Post #2 » by **hermes** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 5:59 am

edwin jackson has been put on the 15 day DL, so that opens up a spot to try someone else in the rotation - the pitcher tryouts should be interesting down the stretch

karch34 · Post #3 » by **karch34** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 2:21 pm

It will definitely be interesting. Like everyone else I have been disappointed in Jackson, but I have to say reading his comments through out the year he sounds like a pretty stand up guy. Hope he can have some success out of the pen.

Kizz Fastfists · Post #4 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 4:04 pm

Jackson's arm angle is drastically different than it was in 2011. It is much more side-armed which has led to the loss of some vertical movement on his pitches. If the mechanics can be fixed, in theory, he can return to his 2011 and 2012 self. His contact rates, K rate, BB rate, etc are all about the same. The issue is he is giving up better contract because the pitches do not drop as much as they used to.

Kizz Fastfists · Post #5 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:44 pm

Arrieta and Strop got back at their former team. Javy puts another one in the street and just missed one on the warning track. Once he adjusts to the majors he's gonna tear it up like every other level he started slow at.

Kizz Fastfists · Post #6 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:47 pm

That Baez kid must like to hit HRs. I could see him finishing the season 2nd on the team with 18+ HRs. Can't wait for him to make the adjustment like he has at every level after 4-8 weeks and get really rolling, although that might not happen until next year.

NW7 · Post #7 » by **NW7** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:01 am

The Cubs have a 50-54 record in games that Edwin Jackson does not pitch, 8-18 in the games he does. And also have a 13-10 record in August (12-7 without Jackson's 4 starts). The Cubs might very well be a .500 team next year with absolutely zero free agent additions. Add in a pitcher or two and maybe a "bargain" outfielder on a one or two year deal, and who knows how good this team might be.

It's also worth noting that all this winning to end the season could end up costing us a protected first round pick. Cubs are currently just 2.5 games back of the 11th worst record. Fortunately 8 of the 10 remaining series are against teams with a winning record (and those other 2 series are vs the Reds) so at least the Cubs don't have an easy remaining schedule. Either way something to keep an eye on.

Kizz Fastfists · Post #8 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:40 am

Cubs are 45-45 over the last 90 games. Add a top of the rotation starter or two. Get an inexpensive upgrade at catcher, someone like John Jaso or Ianetta so you always have a quality catcher although it doesn't need to be someone to make Welly the backup more of someone to split time with him so you have a fresh quality catcher for every game and can play a hot hand if one of them really get going with the bat for a short stretch. Throw in Soler and Bryant to further boost the offense and suddenly next year could look very good.

The offense has a chance to be very strong next year. Rizzo, Baez, Bryant and Soler should all be above average offensively next year. Castro is like clockwork with his MLB average bat and Alcantara should be right around MLB average as well. Hopefully Schwarber proves a lot of people wrong and can stick at catcher for 2016, because he is hitting everything just like Bryant did last year, but with a lower K rate.

There is a huge potential log jam soon with Addison Russell, Castro, Bryant and Baez all looking to play in the infield with Rizzo. Assuming Bryant moves to LF, as has been rumored, then Soler, Alcantara, Almora and McKinney with possibly Schwarber are all in the mix for the OF. I expect the front office to make some moves this off-season and I'm wondering if they are going to stick with Castro or trade him basically declaring Russell the SS of the future. I can see both sides of it. Russell is better on defense already and has more power with a projected better bat. However, Castro is an established 3 WAR player who will give you 160 games a year, while Russell, as impressive as he is, hasn't played past AA.

hermes · Post #9 » by **hermes** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:05 pm

wow, we swept the orioles - that's a good sign right?

as mentioned before, we might end up being too good for a really high pick - maybe theo doesn't care about that anymore, maybe getting everyone time and on the same page and having success is more important than adding another high pick at this rate

hermes · Post #10 » by **hermes** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 4:10 pm

Kizz Fastfists wrote:Cubs are 45-45 over the last 90 games. Add a top of the rotation starter or two. Get an inexpensive upgrade at catcher, someone like John Jaso or Ianetta so you always have a quality catcher although it doesn't need to be someone to make Welly the backup more of someone to split time with him so you have a fresh quality catcher for every game and can play a hot hand if one of them really get going with the bat for a short stretch. Throw in Soler and Bryant to further boost the offense and suddenly next year could look very good.

The offense has a chance to be very strong next year. Rizzo, Baez, Bryant and Soler should all be above average offensively next year. Castro is like clockwork with his MLB average bat and Alcantara should be right around MLB average as well. Hopefully Schwarber proves a lot of people wrong and can stick at catcher for 2016, because he is hitting everything just like Bryant did last year, but with a lower K rate.

There is a huge potential log jam soon with Addison Russell, Castro, Bryant and Baez all looking to play in the infield with Rizzo. Assuming Bryant moves to LF, as has been rumored, then Soler, Alcantara, Almora and McKinney with possibly Schwarber are all in the mix for the OF. I expect the front office to make some moves this off-season and I'm wondering if they are going to stick with Castro or trade him basically declaring Russell the SS of the future. I can see both sides of it. Russell is better on defense already and has more power with a projected better bat. However, Castro is an established 3 WAR player who will give you 160 games a year, while Russell, as impressive as he is, hasn't played past AA.

kizz, when do you (the team) expect russell to make it to chicago? even if he moves really fast through the minors will he make it by the end of 2015? are there contract concerns like with bryant that could delay his promotion? would they move castro this winter if russell might not be on the team until 2016? or does that not matter considering they have shortstops out their ears that could fill in while they wait on russell

Kizz Fastfists · Post #11 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 8:33 pm

I don't feel Bryant is being delayed because of contract concerns. Bryant still has things to work on like his K rate and defense. If Bryant were promoted today and not demoted he would be one of the 4 fastest college bats to the majors since the 2000 draft. The other three are Tulo, Ryan Zimmerman and Gordan Beckham. That's not really a group I want Bryant thrown in with for various reasons. Bryant is on the same development path that Braun, Longoria and many other advanced college bats have taken. He'll be up a few weeks into next year just like Braun and Longoria were not because of contract concerns, but because of the proven method of that development plan. Instead of gambling on something different. It appears Schwarber is on that same plan and he is destroying A+ ball right now.

As for Russell, if he hadn't torn his hamstring I think he would have been the starting SS in Oakland in June and would never have been traded. He'll probably start next year in AAA and be ready when Bryant comes up, but won't likely be brought up at that time. Defensively, Russell is ready. He has had a mini slump over the last 2 weeks or so, something Soler just broke out of also, but overall he could hold his own if promoted today. The delay for Russell will be that Castro is in his way. They will have to decide what to do with them this off-season. If Castro gets traded than I'd expect Russell up with Bryant early next season. Russell could also be traded this off-season for pitching.

It's just a matter of what the front office sees as the long-term alignment of players. A lot of it probably revolves around Schwarber, which could sound odd. If when they work with Schwarber in Arizona this off-season they conclude that he can't catch and is a LF that means Bryant needs to stay at 3B. Schwarber's bat has been better than Bryant's was through this point last year so I don't think you can write off either of them. That means you have to decide between Castro and Russell and move one of them. You could move Baez, but I don't see that happening when even while struggling and breaking in Baez is putting up equal value to Castro's best season in terms of fWAR. IF Schwarber can stick at catcher then they can move Bryant to LF, Castro to 3B, where you expect his glove/range to make for the value loss in the position change, and Russell comes up to play SS in June/July after getting plenty of reps in AAA and avoiding super 2 status.

Just to throw some numbers out there, in A+ Schwarber is hitting .314/.417/.613 with a 19% K rate and 15% BB rate over 168 PAs while Bryant hit .333/.387/.719 there last year with a 27% K rate and 5% BB rate in 62 PAs. In A ball Schwarber hit .361/.448/.602 with a 18% K rate and 11% BB rate over 96 PAs while Bryant hit .354/.416/.692 with a 22% K rate and 10% BB rate over 96 PAs. You really have to find a place for both of those bats. You also have to find a place for Soler, .415/.494/.862 in AA this year and currently at .278/.376/.593 in AAA with a 20% K rate and 13% BB rate. Bryant in AAA is hitting .307/.426/.661 with a 28% K rate and 15% BB rate. RF and LF has to be two of them with 3B or C the spot for the other.

hermes · Post #12 » by **hermes** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 2:03 am

so are you slotting soler into the RF spot, which is why your not putting both bryant and schwarber in the OF?

it certainly will be interesting what they decide to do

Kizz Fastfists · Post #13 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Tue Aug 26, 2014 2:59 am

Soler has the make up, defensively, to be better RF than Bryant. He has better strike zone numbers and is locked in cheap for the next 6 years. Assuming that Bryant and Schwarber live to expectations with their bat Soler will be cheaper than they are as in arbitration with Soler locked in at $4M in 2018, 2019 and 2020. I also believe Soler will be the better hitter, although he might not have the most HRs, but he has 30+ HR power and his K rate and BB rates project to him probably being the better overall hitter. I am really high on Soler to the point that I think he will be the best player on the team in 2017, despite Rizzo continuing to improve.