Draft slot 5-8

[SJSF]

I am sure this might have been discussed in other threads. My apology. But who do you think we will get in this years draft, or who do you think we will get or should get if we select anywhere from 5-8. I am thinking we really need a SG. WIllie Green and Lou are just not that guy. And in this years draft, besides Xavier, i don't see any SG's.

[Skates]

This is not a great draft for SG's after Turner and maybe Xavier. I think at this point we have to presume Iggy will be moved and possibly others this summer, so at 5-8 other than PG it should be BPA. I am not a huge fan of Cole Aldritch, but we do need to be looking for Dalembert's replacement soon. Defensively and rebounding Aldritch might fit the bill, with a little scoring. Long term he might be a back-up on a very good team, but that seems likely with many guys in this draft.

[93 Phillies]

If we take Aldrich at any point in the first round, I will be infuriated. He's Eric Montross Jr with a little more mobility. He and that stiff center from Florida State will absolutely be busts.

[The Guilty Party]

At #5, you take whoever is leftover between Favors, Cousins, and Wesley Johnson. 6-8 becomes a lot tougher. There aren't any guards worth taking that high (if you want Henry, trade down) and so I would look at someone like Greg Monroe.

[Gsraider]

Or you could trade the pick if a player that fits another team's needs more than ours steps up. Perhaps it could be used to unload bad contracts or in conjunction with a player to fill a need with a young and more established SG.

[AJfiend]

TGP got it right...I'd be happy with any of those 4. Wall and Turner are obviously the steals. I'd be extactic with Johnson or Cousins!

[tk76]

Assuming we finish between 5th and 7th worst record our odds for each spot are about:
(base on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery )

#1: 4-9%
#2: 5-10%
#3 6-10%
#4: 0%
#5: 26% if 5th worst, otherwise no chance
#6: 36-44% (if finish 5th or 6th)
#7: 8%(5th). 30%(6th), 60%(7th)
#8: 4%(6th), 23%(7th)

So the greatest likelihood right now is a 6th or 7th pick (I'd say about 65%+ odds of one of those picks.) Which is a major grey area in this draft. It will be hard to trade up into the WTF range, so we have to hope they get lucky.

Odds for a top 3 pick by position:

5th: 33%
6th: 21%
7th: 15%
8th: 10%

So overall projected odds for Sixers getting a top 3 pick right now are about 22%.

[The Guilty Party]

Or you could trade the pick if a player that fits another team's needs more than ours steps up. Perhaps it could be used to unload bad contracts or in conjunction with a player to fill a need with a young and more established SG.

We kind of touched on that part in another thread a couple of weeks ago. The only problem was coming up with a name of young SG who another team might move that would be worth the 6th or 7th pick. I think most of us would LOVE Eric Gordon but he's not being moved. OJ Mayo is someone I would trade a pick away to get (assuming the pick between 5-8) but I doubt Memphis does that. Who else is there?

JR Smith can score but has attitude problems. Would you give away a Top 10 pick for him? Rudy Fernandez can shoot the 3-ball but has not developed his game at all this season. Kevin Martin just got traded and I highly doubt Houston moves him. Is there someone I'm missing?

[The Guilty Party]

So the greatest likelihood right now is a 6th or 7th pick (I'd say about 65%+ odds of one of those picks.) Which is a major grey area in this draft. It will be hard to trade up into the WTF range, so we have to hope they get lucky.

Whoever is representing this team better bring some luck with them. The one thing that we do have going for us is that if we end up drafting 5th or 6th, there are some teams ahead of us who haven't exactly made the most logical of draft choices over the past couple of years.

1- Who had Minnesota taking Flynn and Rubio last year??? The Wolves do have Jefferson and Love so it is possible that they will somehow pass on both Favors and Cousins and take Wesley Johnson instead should they not land Wall or Turner.

2- Is Don Nelson going to draft a project big man especially a big man like Cousins who won't exactly be running the break?

3- Darko. Dumars has shown before that that he's capable of making the wrong pick.

Point being, just because it looks like we know who the Top 5 picks are going to be, it doesn't mean it will shake out that way. If we do hold onto the 6th spot (I suspect that we will actually end up with the 5th), all it will take is for one team to fall in love with someone else like Monroe, Whiteside, or Ed Davis and then BAM... we've got ourselves Cousins, Favors, or Johnson.

[Skates]

The more I watch Monroe, well actually I won't get to watch him any more, the less enamored of him I am at the NBA level. He doesn't have much lift and isn't center sized. I don't think he can get his shot off down low at the next level and he doesn't have much of a jumper.

Aldritch is no great shakes, but watching him I agree with one of the draft sites that called him Joel Pryzbilla with some offensive skills, which isn't horrible for a role player type center.

It would take a real idiot for any of Cousins, Favors Turner or Wall to last past number four (or possibly a blow up by Cousins along the way). Favors is the type who will blow people away in workouts.

I would not trade a lottery pick for him, but I would move a guy like Speights (whose stock is dropping badly IMO) for Anthony Morrow from GS. Also, any move to trade Iggy needs to bring back a center or shooting guard.

[tk76]

In the past 25 years these are the best players drafted at #6:

Brandon Roy, Hersey Hawkins, Kaman, Kenny Smith, Battier and Antoine Walker.

After those 7 players, the other 18 players picked at #7 were either bench players or complete busts.

http://www.82games.com/nbadraft2.htm gives you 1983-2003. Since then:
Flynn
Love
Yi,
Brandon Roy
Martell Webster
Childress

[Sixersftw]

wow, the historical difference between 5th and 6th is staggering. good thing we might be in a tie for 5th by the end of the night.

[Gsraider]

We kind of touched on that part in another thread a couple of weeks ago. The only problem was coming up with a name of young SG who another team might move that would be worth the 6th or 7th pick. I think most of us would LOVE Eric Gordon but he's not being moved. OJ Mayo is someone I would trade a pick away to get (assuming the pick between 5-8) but I doubt Memphis does that?

The list opens up quite a bit if you trade the #5-7 pick (based on estimations) along with a player. That increases the salary you can take back, plus it could potentially open up other avenues if someone like Speights, Young or Iguodala is the player. By the same token, you could lower your expectations and try to use that pick to get someone to take Brand's contract if Philly truly wants to move it. As for trading the pick alone for a player, that is pretty difficult when you consider it could probably only be done for guys that make almost nothing since Philly is over the cap.

[Howardmgm3]

If we get 6 or 7, I would offer our draft pick and either Iggy or Lou or Speights (actually all 3 if they are so inclined) to move up to 4.. We would also have to take back some of their garbage.

I would also make the same offer if we get 4 or 5 to get to 3. (Favors is a stud and Turner is Brandon Roy.)

And of course the same offer if we had 2 or 3 to get to 1.

[tk76]

Yes, its a WTF-cuz draft (Wall/Turner/Favors/Cousins.) After that it is more liley you are S.O.L.

Or should I say WaWa'd (Wes, Aldrich, Whiteside, Aminu, Ed Davis)

[The Guilty Party]

The list opens up quite a bit if you trade the #5-7 pick (based on estimations) along with a player. That increases the salary you can take back, plus it could potentially open up other avenues if someone like Speights, Young or Iguodala is the player. By the same token, you could lower your expectations and try to use that pick to get someone to take Brand's contract if Philly truly wants to move it. As for trading the pick alone for a player, that is pretty difficult when you consider it could probably only be done for guys that make almost nothing since Philly is over the cap.

Sure... but for who? What SGs are out there that you want?

Also, I absolutely would not package the #6 with Brand in order to get a team to take his deal. I'd rather keep Brand and add a good player than give the #6 away with Brand for expirings.

[phillychuck]

Let's assume the Sixers get the 8th pick or better. They almost have to draft one of

John Wall
Evan Turner
DeMarcus Cousins
Derrick Favors
Al-Farouq Aminu
Cole Aldrich
Wesley Johnson
Greg Monroe
Ed Davis
Patrick Patterson
Jan Vesely

In what order would you rank them for the Sixers?

Here's my priority

Wall
Favors
Turner
Cousins
Vesely
Aminu
Johnson
Davis
Patterson
Monroe
Aldrich

I wouldn't take Alrich on a bet--unathletic and foul-prone. They've got to try to find a superstar...don't think Monroe can possibly develop into a dominant NBA player with his lack of athleticism and average motor (at best). He's the highest "bust risk" at the top of the draft (IMHO). Davis and Patterson strike me as complimentary players. Johnson's age works against him a bit, but I wouldn't mind him based on his game when healthy. Probably a bit too unselfish to be a true superstar. I'm higher on Vesely than most.

[Gsraider]

Sure... but for who? What SGs are out there that you want?

Also, I absolutely would not package the #6 with Brand in order to get a team to take his deal. I'd rather keep Brand and add a good player than give the #6 away with Brand for expirings.

I'm not trying to be evasive here, but there are a million different combinations here, depending on what player is included. I would love to get someone like J. Johnson, but he'll be a UFA. I'm not as high on M. Ellis as some others, but so long as he is paired with a bigger guard like Holiday, he could be an option. Generally speaking however, I would rather go after someone like E. Gordon (who I think you mentioned earier) and would hope that the #5-7 pick might be a starting point that gets them interested.

[The Guilty Party]

I would love to get Gordon too but I doubt the Clippers will be moving him. I just don't think there's all that much out there in the way of impact SGs who might be moved. Hopefully something will change this summer.

[Skates]

There is simply no one in this draft lottery after the top four that interests me.

Wes Johnson smells of Al Thornton at worst and is merely duplicating what we have in Thad (better outside shooter, lesser inside player than Thad) at best. A non-dominant combo forward with an average to below average handle and one who will be 23 in July.

I like some of the later first round guys as projects/role players who are befitting of those slots in the draft. Picks 5 through 10 to me look like trade bait if you can get anyone to bite.