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OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012

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Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012 

Post#41 » by PimpHandStrong » Thu Sep 1, 2011 2:27 pm

Through 175 innings in 21 starts so far this season, Darvish's WHIP, K/9 and BB/9 stand at 0.83, 10.59 and 1.39 (a huge improvement here) respectively. Dude's 16-4 with a 1.54 ERA.

If the Jays were to sign Darvish, and I'm still in Toronto next year (just moved here), I'll be at Rogers for as many of his starts as possible (given price/availability). A 1-2-3 of Darvish-Romero-Morrow is filthy. Add Prince Fielder to the mix, and this team could be ready next year.
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Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012 

Post#42 » by Hoopstarr » Thu Sep 1, 2011 2:53 pm

Randle McMurphy wrote:With Darvish, you also don't have to worry about another team like NYY or BOS swooping in once you bid the most. You get exclusive negotiating rights. Not the case with other players.

Also remember that AA's biggest regret as a GM was not spending the few extra million on Chapman. If he really wants Darvish, I think the Jays will get him.


I was just going to mention the Chapman thing. Doubtful AA will let that happen again for someone he wants. Getting it done early could help us sign other free agents as well. Boston won the Dice-K bidding in mid-November. Ichiro's was even earlier.
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Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012 

Post#43 » by BOOOOOSH » Thu Sep 1, 2011 5:19 pm

From the London Free Press

TALENT SEARCH REACHES JAPAN

while the bullpen burned in Baltimore, GM AA was in Japan looking for talent for next season. Anthopoulos was scouting World Baseball Classic sensation Yu Darvish. The 6-foot-5, 185 right-hander is with the Nippon Ham Fighters. Darvish, 25, picked up his 16th win Tuesday night in front of major-league scouts.


goes on to talk about his stats and finishes with the obvious

The New York Yankess are also interested.


No link, transcribed from the paper.
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Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012 

Post#44 » by darth_federer » Thu Sep 1, 2011 5:35 pm

I wonder if the Yankees are a little hesitant after the disaster that was Kei Igawa. Sabathia also probably opts out and gets a massive extension. They might be a little more cautious than usual.
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Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012 

Post#45 » by LBJSeizedMyID » Thu Sep 1, 2011 8:12 pm

Not to mention Dice-K with the Red Sox. Still somewhat skeptical, but the times I've seen Darvish pitch, his slider has some crazy movement.
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Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012 

Post#46 » by PimpHandStrong » Thu Sep 1, 2011 9:40 pm

LBJSeizedMyID wrote:Not to mention Dice-K with the Red Sox. Still somewhat skeptical, but the times I've seen Darvish pitch, his slider has some crazy movement.
Plus, Darvish's numbers in Japan are better than Dice-K's.
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Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012 

Post#47 » by JYD » Thu Sep 1, 2011 11:39 pm

Just saw a youtube vid of him and he's very impressive...tight, hard slider he can throw for strikes, a straight fastball, and the 2 seamer that runs in and saws off righties. How's his change and splitter? If either of those pitches are plus then I can see him being dominant.
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Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012 

Post#48 » by flatjacket1 » Fri Sep 2, 2011 12:46 am

If we did sign him it would make or break this decade for the Jays.
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Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012 

Post#49 » by PimpHandStrong » Fri Sep 2, 2011 1:04 am

flatjacket1 wrote:If we did sign him it would make or break this decade for the Jays.
Not really. As has been pointed out, the increased revenue he'd create would likely offset his salary and posting fee. Since the Jays would still have their minor league system in tact, they would remain just as flexible as ever. It really seems like a no-brainer. Hopefully Rogers steps up to the plate on this one.
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Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012 

Post#50 » by Lucky26 » Fri Sep 2, 2011 4:56 am

Gotta love multiculturism. Who would've thunk it, you get an Iranian and a Jap together, you get a Yu Darvish. Probably one of the most unique names in the world, along with his talent.
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Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012 

Post#51 » by Lucky26 » Fri Sep 2, 2011 5:29 am

PimpHandStrong wrote:
LBJSeizedMyID wrote:Not to mention Dice-K with the Red Sox. Still somewhat skeptical, but the times I've seen Darvish pitch, his slider has some crazy movement.
Plus, Darvish's numbers in Japan are better than Dice-K's.



Also, don't forget the fact that Darvish is 25, and not 30+ like most of the Asian players that came over, including Dice-K.
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Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012 

Post#52 » by darth_federer » Fri Sep 2, 2011 6:01 am

Dick K was 26 just like Darvish will be if he comes over next year.
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Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012 

Post#53 » by J.Kim » Fri Sep 2, 2011 10:52 am

darth_federer wrote:Dick K was 26 just like Darvish will be if he comes over next year.


Dasiuke might as well have been a 30+ year old, with the legendary amount of work he put in throughout his amateur and professional career.

And that doesn't count the 200-pitch bullpen sessions Matsuzaka routinely threw in Japan, or the 250-pitch, 17-inning complete game he pitched in high school, or the 189 pitches he threw in his first start in 2003.


Although not 200+ pitches, he frequently topped 135+ during his heyday in the NPB.

Thankfully, Yu Darvish doesn't have as quite the mileage that Daisuke did.
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Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012 

Post#54 » by PimpHandStrong » Fri Sep 2, 2011 11:18 am

darth_federer wrote:Dick K was 26 just like Darvish will be if he comes over next year.
This actually isn't true. Darvish just turned 25. When he starts his MLB career (assuming he comes over next season), he'll be 11 months younger than Dice-K was when he started his MLB career.
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Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012 

Post#55 » by PimpHandStrong » Fri Sep 2, 2011 11:27 am

J.Kim wrote:
darth_federer wrote:Dick K was 26 just like Darvish will be if he comes over next year.


Dasiuke might as well have been a 30+ year old, with the legendary amount of work he put in throughout his amateur and professional career.

And that doesn't count the 200-pitch bullpen sessions Matsuzaka routinely threw in Japan, or the 250-pitch, 17-inning complete game he pitched in high school, or the 189 pitches he threw in his first start in 2003.


Although not 200+ pitches, he frequently topped 135+ during his heyday in the NPB.

Thankfully, Yu Darvish doesn't have as quite the mileage that Daisuke did.
I haven't compared their respective amateur careers, but both will have played professionally in Japan for 7 seasons before starting their MLB careers.

Dice-K pitched 1162.1 innings over his 7 year pro career in Japan.

Darvish has already pitched 1211.1 innings through today, with another handful of starts remaining before the end of the season.
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Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012 

Post#56 » by PimpHandStrong » Fri Sep 2, 2011 11:36 am

And, just so everyone has an easy link to the data, here are the Japanese stats for Dice-K, Kei Igawa and Yu Darvish:

Dice-K: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Daisuke-Matsuzaka

Igawa: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Kei-Igawa

Darvish: http://bis.npb.or.jp/eng/players/61965110.html


I know nothing about the league, and what changes may have taken place between when Dice-K and Kei Igawa pitched and now (and how performance in Japan translates to MLB performance), but judging by the stats, Darvish is (easily) the best of the three.
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Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012 

Post#57 » by satyr9 » Fri Sep 2, 2011 1:00 pm

Are people still okay with getting Darvish if it's more like a 75mil posting fee and a 5/80 deal afterwards? Not saying I have any info or anything, but I'm not sure why anyone would assume something less than Dice-K's posting fee (51-52ish right?) is gonna be the number. IMO this situation is almost impossible to evaluate from a fan's perspective, because we have absolutely zero idea how to judge increased revenue from Japanese ad sales. The post earlier on the topic is interesting and informative, but doesn't help figure out numbers for the Jays and a guy like this one bit IMO.

It's that posting fee that really scares me about Darvish because you then need a lot of years in a deal to ensure you can pay it off from extra revenue, but then the deal you sign for the player becomes riskier and riskier (longer term = greater risk obviously). All of which isn't to say I'm against it, basically if AA does it I'll think it's good and if he passes I'll think it's good too 'cause I'm drinking the kool-aid and don't feel like I have anywhere close to the requisite info to have an informed opinion.

edit: I will say this: an extra 200k per home game averaged over 5 years equals 81 million (crazy hard math to follow I know :D). Now those expensive ads are already being filled so one more ad doesn't equal pure extra money, but if it drives up the demand and cost it may not take too many extra ads to make a number like that feasible, although I don't know if Darvish has Ichiro draw.
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Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012 

Post#58 » by Homer Jay » Fri Sep 2, 2011 2:51 pm

I think Satyr9 hit it right on the head. A team will look at the up front bonus, and compare it to the anticipated extra revenue he will generate. Remember since this is foreign, MLB allows the Jays to collect ALL of that extra money Japanese sponsorship brings in. (One of the reasons the Yanks/Sox are so rich is that they do a very good job in foreign markets) The calculators will be humming in the Jays front office this off-season to figure out if this guy will be worth it. His MLB salary will likely just be budgeted like any other player. I think anything around 12.5 a year should be ballpark for him.
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Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012 

Post#59 » by dennistokyo » Sat Sep 3, 2011 3:07 am

The advertising revenue will only be there for games in which Darvish pitches, so it's nowhere near what Ichiro or Matsui brought in. I say it'll cost $80 mil to negotiate with Darvish. This isn't guys negotiating; this is guys guessing. Please Jays, get this guy.
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Re: OT: Yu Darvish Plans To Play In MLB In 2012 

Post#60 » by Lockdown » Sun Sep 4, 2011 9:14 pm

Saw this guy when I used to live in Japan, he's absolutely the real deal. I watched him completely dominate in the 07 Japan Series (even though his team lost the series) at the age of 21, nobody could believe it. He only lost his second start in that series 1-0 because the other guy threw a perfect game. There was a total sense of awe around the guy.

It would be awesome if the Jays got him but I don't see how this doesn't another another case where one of the big money teams breaks the bank to throw a gigantic deal at him.

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