Go Young, Play Fast: A Blow It Up Thread

[b3n]

Boston
Trades P. Pierce, B. Bass and G. Stiemsma

Golden State
Trades A. Biedrins, D. Wright, J. Tyler and K. Thompson

This is one of the better Pierce trades I have seen IMO. I think it makes a lot of sense for both teams. Mark Jackson has been preaching the "win now" mentality since he was appointed head coach and Pierce adds that veteran, "jack of all trades" presence at the SF spot they could use. I'm not sure how well Ellis/Pierce co-exist though, and that puts a lot of pressure on Curry to stay healthy.

I think if we were able to couple this trade with the Garnett for Jamison/protected 2013 1st from Cleveland that Elrod mentioned and ship out Dooling for a 2nd rounder, it's a good jump on rebuilding. I'd keep Allen around though to maintain some veteran leadership for the rest of the season unless he could land us a future 1st.

Rondo/Bradley
Thompson/Allen/Moore
Wright/Pietrus/Pavlovic/Daniels*
Jamison/Wilcox/JJJ
Biedrins/JO

*Waive

That roster suits Rondo much greater than the current and stocks us up with picks/young talent without affecting our cap situation.

[jmr07019]

I can't really agree with this plan to invest so much in Batum. I don't see a 12 mil per player when I watch him, not even close. If he is our guy and we're going to give him a 5 yr / 60 mil contract I think we could sign him in the off season. Nobody is going to match that offer so now we can at least keep our first round picks.

Secondly I'm not sold on the Pierce deal. I like Thompson and Wright but Biedrins is a sticking point. I think we could get similar prospects (or a mid first) with an expiring contract.

[Slartibartfast]

I liked your Houston deal for Pierce a little better (Thabeet + Morris + assorted young guys). I like Thabeet as a project on a rebuilding more than I like adding Biedrins and his contract.

On a running team, I think it's less important to have a running center than a board cleaner and defensive presence. My targets (in trade or free agency) would be: Dalembert, Omer Asik, Thabeet, Brendan Haywood (assuming he gets amnestied, not interested in him otherwise), Diop (only for the min after an amnesty). I might look to incorporate one small-ball center for a gimmicky line-up: Boris Diaw for example. Amir Johnson would also be good as a small-ball center.

Put your speed in the other positions, especially the 4 spot. Andrei Kirilenko, Lamar Odom, Gerald Wallace, Tyrus Thomas, Josh Smith, Thaddeus Young, Kenneth Faried, maybe Jeff Green if your 5 is really good on the boards/defensively.

I am actually on the other side of the fence on the mobility issue of centers on uptempo teams. I think that it is essential for the 5 man to be quick. The great running teams that we had here had either Russell or Cowens at the 5, and they were both extremely quick big, particularly Bill who was reportedly the fastest man on the team. It is absolutely essential that the guy can rebound and defend, but if you want to play at a high pace, having a center who can smash it on the secondary break is a huge help. Personally, I think that Noah is the best uptempo center in game, but that h plays in a slow down system. His defense, rebounding, passing and mobility would make him a tremendous force for a team committed to run. A lesser Bill Russell of sorts.

Plodders can slow their team down. The Showtime Lakers were able to run with Kareem, but his great lowpost game made him worth dragging along in transition. If all the guy brings is defense, though, then you want him to be able to run the floor.

Yeah, Noah would be great, as would Chandler or Varejao. If you can get defense, rebounding and mobility in one package, that's great, I just don't see us having the immediate assets to acquire someone of that ability (unless Cleveland is willing to dump Varejao for picks). Slower defensive cogs tend to be cheaper.

I think an intermediate plan that doesn't require a free agency home run like Howard is to pair a speedy 4 with offensive advantages and a defense/rebounding 5.

A guy like Kirilenko, as long as he's got some rebounding protection from his center, can wreak havoc at the 4 with his speed and skill.

[CelticFaninLBC]

Batum's a really nice player, who could complement Rondo well. He's a good athlete, who can hit the 3, and has a very good WS/48. While I don't think Green's as good as Batum, he'll be cheaper, and they don't have to give up picks for him either.

[GreenDreamer]

Batum's a really nice player, who could complement Rondo well. He's a good athlete, who can hit the 3, and has a very good WS/48. While I don't think Green's as good as Batum, he'll be cheaper, and they don't have to give up picks for him either.

If we could get Batum for the right price I would be all for it. The two firstrounders is a no go, though. There would be no issue in having Batum and Green on the same team, because you still need to have a bench. They could play together at times, and could share the SF responsibilities as well.

[GreenDreamer]

Stay away from Batum, unless you are simply looking for a defensive role player - he is a tease who is highly unlikely to become a dynamic offensive player - I will give him 3 seasons as a 3rd option level performer in his prime - that's best case. His head doesn't match his body.

Jeff free has far more potential as an offensive top 3 by virtue of playing full time 3. I like Batum as a complement to Green as they offset each others weaknesses well.

I still think the best course of action is to ride out this top defensive core and see what free agency can yield - if Howard is 1000% gone b4 deadline than you see about the Gasol deal.

I think this offseason is going to be about 1 seeing if u can sell Howard/Williams on Boston 2 limiting commitments until the "real" prizes come available.

For me, I don't see the team taking what it can get. I see more short term commitments that leave "max windows" open in various years. I could see Harden being a focus 2 seasons from now and Love being a year 3 focus.

This build will be either a slow asset value increase or a big money investment on the two legit stars. There won't be half measures for long money

I agree with this assessment here.

I am happy with keeping Green as our SF, unless of course it would require a 3 or 4 year deal. With his heart condition I'm guessing teams will shy away from offering Green 3 years or more. If the Celtics can get him for 2 years and $10 or 2 years and $12 I'd be happy with that.

I'm still of the mindset that Rondo is a trade chip. Look to deal Rondo for Howard, Gasol, a player and a pick (Jefferson and GSW first as an example) or straight up for a top 5 pick if you fall in love with someone in the draft. I'm really not interested in building with or around Rondo but I only deal him if I'm getting those caliber of deals for him.

My focus for this season is on playing the young guys, Bradley especially, and hopefully improving the Celtics first rounder. I'd look to move Ray, Jermaine and Bass for picks, even if it means taking back a bad contract as long as it aligns with whatever off-season Ainge wants to target another max free agent. Sign KG to a deal that expires in that offseason too. Again I agree that Harden would be an EXCELLENT target as a max free agent when he's available, absolutely love his game.

I haven't followed college basketball too closely but I love Austin Rivers. If he enters the draft the Celtics need to get this guy. He's going to be an ELITE scorer at the NBA level.

My ideal look next season would be:

Bradley/Rivers/Vet PG
Pierce/Pietrus
Green/Sasha
KG or *Sullinger/Wilcox
KG or Gasol/Steimsma

*Sullinger is just a name I'm throwing out as a possibility if you deal Rondo to get into the top 5 picks.

A starting lineup with no high level ball handlers. Yeah, that team wouldn't get pressed to death. Yuck.

[Pogue Mahone]

Batum, when getting more than 12 FGAs in a game, has put up the following:

(Per 36)

P36 - eFG% - FT% - TS% - R36 - A36 - B36 - S36 - TO36
21.27 - .613 - .877 - .645 - 6.07 - 1.62 - 0.77 - 1.62 - 1.16

He also put up the following in those games:

OReb% - DReb% - Stl% - Blk%
8.71 - 12.75 - 2.12 - 1.50

Hypothetically, the closest match I can find, age 23 or younger, for his rate states when he is getting at least moderate (12+ FGA) touches is Marques Johnson.

Marques Johnson, age 23 season

P36 - eFG% - FT% - TS% - R36 - A36 - B36 - S36 - TO36
22.40 - .545 - .791 - .585 - 7.60 - 3.70 - 0.90 - 1.30 - 2.50

OReb% - DReb% - Stl% - Blk%
9.00 - 13.70 - 1.70 - 1.40

Now, I am not saying that Batum will become Marques Johnson (before the neck injury.) I am saying the following:

1. Batum is poised for a breakout and may have already started. He came into the season with 4894 MP for his career. Sometime around 4500 MP is when the breakout occurs. My "hunch", if you will, is that Batum's development has been (Please Use More Appropriate Word) by the lack of touches and consistent minutes. That he would take an extra 500-1000 MP to realize his potential is not surprising to me. It's not like his overall performance and efficiencies were bad in that stretch; he just didn't have the opportunity.

2. Johnson was the originator of the modern day "point forward" but that was by necessity. We don't need Batum to do that. What we would want Batum to do is score efficiently on a large amount of possessions without turning the ball over. He can do that. We would also want defense from the position. He can provide that. That his rate stats, when given opportunity to be a focal point of the offense, outside of playmaking, are most similar to Marques Johnson at the same age bodes extremely well for the future, imo.

I do hear what everyone is saying about draft picks. Let me ask you this: Would you trade what will probably be no better than the 12th pick and a future pick for a NBA ready top-3 ready pick who is a two way player and extremely efficient and multi-faceted? Or do you role the dice for a player likely 3-4 years behind Rondo in development and who you will have to likely extend at an overpriced contract before he realizes his potential?

[GreenDreamer]

I liked your Houston deal for Pierce a little better (Thabeet + Morris + assorted young guys). I like Thabeet as a project on a rebuilding more than I like adding Biedrins and his contract.

On a running team, I think it's less important to have a running center than a board cleaner and defensive presence. My targets (in trade or free agency) would be: Dalembert, Omer Asik, Thabeet, Brendan Haywood (assuming he gets amnestied, not interested in him otherwise), Diop (only for the min after an amnesty). I might look to incorporate one small-ball center for a gimmicky line-up: Boris Diaw for example. Amir Johnson would also be good as a small-ball center.

Put your speed in the other positions, especially the 4 spot. Andrei Kirilenko, Lamar Odom, Gerald Wallace, Tyrus Thomas, Josh Smith, Thaddeus Young, Kenneth Faried, maybe Jeff Green if your 5 is really good on the boards/defensively.

I am actually on the other side of the fence on the mobility issue of centers on uptempo teams. I think that it is essential for the 5 man to be quick. The great running teams that we had here had either Russell or Cowens at the 5, and they were both extremely quick big, particularly Bill who was reportedly the fastest man on the team. It is absolutely essential that the guy can rebound and defend, but if you want to play at a high pace, having a center who can smash it on the secondary break is a huge help. Personally, I think that Noah is the best uptempo center in game, but that h plays in a slow down system. His defense, rebounding, passing and mobility would make him a tremendous force for a team committed to run. A lesser Bill Russell of sorts.

Plodders can slow their team down. The Showtime Lakers were able to run with Kareem, but his great lowpost game made him worth dragging along in transition. If all the guy brings is defense, though, then you want him to be able to run the floor.

Yeah, Noah would be great, as would Chandler or Varejao. If you can get defense, rebounding and mobility in one package, that's great, I just don't see us having the immediate assets to acquire someone of that ability (unless Cleveland is willing to dump Varejao for picks). Slower defensive cogs tend to be cheaper.

I think an intermediate plan that doesn't require a free agency home run like Howard is to pair a speedy 4 with offensive advantages and a defense/rebounding 5.

A guy like Kirilenko, as long as he's got some rebounding protection from his center, can wreak havoc at the 4 with his speed and skill.

Howard, himself, would be a great center in an uptempo format. I have long believed that if Rondo had been on the Magic that they would have won multiple Titles. They had all of the pieces in place to be a dominant running team with defense, except that they didn't have the guy to unleash that potential. I'm very big on Andy, and Chandler would be great too. I just think that guys who lumber along are a bad fit.

AK-47 would be a very good 4 in a running format. I love 3/4 swing guys, because you can always switch them to the 3 and go power format when you need to. If Doc had taken his head out of his ass last season, and actually used Jeff Green correctly, it ould have worked well for us doing exactly that. Doc, who has a one track mind, couldn't see that Green was a "jack of all trades, master of none" kind of guy. He wanted only one thing out of him, and acted as if that was all Jeff had to offer. It was some of the dumbest coaching I have ever watched...... and the robots around here didn't have a clue as to what was really happening.

[GreenDreamer]

Batum, when getting more than 12 FGAs in a game, has put up the following:

(Per 36)

P36 - eFG% - FT% - TS% - R36 - A36 - B36 - S36 - TO36
21.27 - .613 - .877 - .645 - 6.07 - 1.62 - 0.77 - 1.62 - 1.16

He also put up the following in those games:

OReb% - DReb% - Stl% - Blk%
8.71 - 12.75 - 2.12 - 1.50

Hypothetically, the closest match I can find, age 23 or younger, for his rate states when he is getting at least moderate (12+ FGA) touches is Marques Johnson.

Marques Johnson, age 23 season

P36 - eFG% - FT% - TS% - R36 - A36 - B36 - S36 - TO36
22.40 - .545 - .791 - .585 - 7.60 - 3.70 - 0.90 - 1.30 - 2.50

OReb% - DReb% - Stl% - Blk%
9.00 - 13.70 - 1.70 - 1.40

Now, I am not saying that Batum will become Marques Johnson (before the neck injury.) I am saying the following:

1. Batum is poised for a breakout and may have already started. He came into the season with 4894 MP for his career. Sometime around 4500 MP is when the breakout occurs. My "hunch", if you will, is that Batum's development has been (Please Use More Appropriate Word) by the lack of touches and consistent minutes. That he would take an extra 500-1000 MP to realize his potential is not surprising to me. It's not like his overall performance and efficiencies were bad in that stretch; he just didn't have the opportunity.

2. Johnson was the originator of the modern day "point forward" but that was by necessity. We don't need Batum to do that. What we would want Batum to do is score efficiently on a large amount of possessions without turning the ball over. He can do that. We would also want defense from the position. He can provide that. That his rate stats, when given opportunity to be a focal point of the offense, outside of playmaking, are most similar to Marques Johnson at the same age bodes extremely well for the future, imo.

I do hear what everyone is saying about draft picks. Let me ask you this: Would you trade what will probably be no better than the 12th pick and a future pick for a NBA ready top-3 ready pick who is a two way player and extremely efficient and multi-faceted? Or do you role the dice for a player likely 3-4 years behind Rondo in development and who you will have to likely extend at an overpriced contract before he realizes his potential?

You are proposing to massively overpay for Batum, and then using a draft pick argument in connection with it? Batum, himself, was the 25th pick of hos own draft. Both of our picks should be better than that. Maybe if we offer a contract like you are proposing, then we can get him in the offseason. I still think that would be unwise, but maybe Danny and company would think otherwise. To offer that money AND give away both of our draft picks? That is just unthinkable for me.

[BfB]

Batum, when getting more than 12 FGAs in a game, has put up the following:

(Per 36)

P36 - eFG% - FT% - TS% - R36 - A36 - B36 - S36 - TO36
21.27 - .613 - .877 - .645 - 6.07 - 1.62 - 0.77 - 1.62 - 1.16

He also put up the following in those games:

OReb% - DReb% - Stl% - Blk%
8.71 - 12.75 - 2.12 - 1.50

Hypothetically, the closest match I can find, age 23 or younger, for his rate states when he is getting at least moderate (12+ FGA) touches is Marques Johnson.

Marques Johnson, age 23 season

P36 - eFG% - FT% - TS% - R36 - A36 - B36 - S36 - TO36
22.40 - .545 - .791 - .585 - 7.60 - 3.70 - 0.90 - 1.30 - 2.50

OReb% - DReb% - Stl% - Blk%
9.00 - 13.70 - 1.70 - 1.40

Now, I am not saying that Batum will become Marques Johnson (before the neck injury.) I am saying the following:

1. Batum is poised for a breakout and may have already started. He came into the season with 4894 MP for his career. Sometime around 4500 MP is when the breakout occurs. My "hunch", if you will, is that Batum's development has been (Please Use More Appropriate Word) by the lack of touches and consistent minutes. That he would take an extra 500-1000 MP to realize his potential is not surprising to me. It's not like his overall performance and efficiencies were bad in that stretch; he just didn't have the opportunity.

2. Johnson was the originator of the modern day "point forward" but that was by necessity. We don't need Batum to do that. What we would want Batum to do is score efficiently on a large amount of possessions without turning the ball over. He can do that. We would also want defense from the position. He can provide that. That his rate stats, when given opportunity to be a focal point of the offense, outside of playmaking, are most similar to Marques Johnson at the same age bodes extremely well for the future, imo.

I do hear what everyone is saying about draft picks. Let me ask you this: Would you trade what will probably be no better than the 12th pick and a future pick for a NBA ready top-3 ready pick who is a two way player and extremely efficient and multi-faceted? Or do you role the dice for a player likely 3-4 years behind Rondo in development and who you will have to likely extend at an overpriced contract before he realizes his potential?

Pogue, I totally hear your stats beakdown - my "stats" tell me that Batum is a "tool" who will not be able to extrapolate his "opportunity" production into a higher level of volume consistently.

I think Batum's limited usage frequency is directly related to his actual ability to be consistent and not some type of young Jermaine O'neal lack of realization.

Point blank - I don't think Batum can produce if given consistent opportunity to extend those sexy, sporadic opportunity numbers - I think he's a "sometimes" performer.

[humblebum]

Stay away from Batum, unless you are simply looking for a defensive role player - he is a tease who is highly unlikely to become a dynamic offensive player - I will give him 3 seasons as a 3rd option level performer in his prime - that's best case. His head doesn't match his body.

Jeff free has far more potential as an offensive top 3 by virtue of playing full time 3. I like Batum as a complement to Green as they offset each others weaknesses well.

I still think the best course of action is to ride out this top defensive core and see what free agency can yield - if Howard is 1000% gone b4 deadline than you see about the Gasol deal.

I think this offseason is going to be about 1 seeing if u can sell Howard/Williams on Boston 2 limiting commitments until the "real" prizes come available.

For me, I don't see the team taking what it can get. I see more short term commitments that leave "max windows" open in various years. I could see Harden being a focus 2 seasons from now and Love being a year 3 focus.

This build will be either a slow asset value increase or a big money investment on the two legit stars. There won't be half measures for long money

I agree with this assessment here.

I am happy with keeping Green as our SF, unless of course it would require a 3 or 4 year deal. With his heart condition I'm guessing teams will shy away from offering Green 3 years or more. If the Celtics can get him for 2 years and $10 or 2 years and $12 I'd be happy with that.

I'm still of the mindset that Rondo is a trade chip. Look to deal Rondo for Howard, Gasol, a player and a pick (Jefferson and GSW first as an example) or straight up for a top 5 pick if you fall in love with someone in the draft. I'm really not interested in building with or around Rondo but I only deal him if I'm getting those caliber of deals for him.

My focus for this season is on playing the young guys, Bradley especially, and hopefully improving the Celtics first rounder. I'd look to move Ray, Jermaine and Bass for picks, even if it means taking back a bad contract as long as it aligns with whatever off-season Ainge wants to target another max free agent. Sign KG to a deal that expires in that offseason too. Again I agree that Harden would be an EXCELLENT target as a max free agent when he's available, absolutely love his game.

I haven't followed college basketball too closely but I love Austin Rivers. If he enters the draft the Celtics need to get this guy. He's going to be an ELITE scorer at the NBA level.

My ideal look next season would be:

Bradley/Rivers/Vet PG
Pierce/Pietrus
Green/Sasha
KG or *Sullinger/Wilcox
KG or Gasol/Steimsma

*Sullinger is just a name I'm throwing out as a possibility if you deal Rondo to get into the top 5 picks.

A starting lineup with no high level ball handlers. Yeah, that team wouldn't get pressed to death. Yuck.

Hey whatever, we'll just play bully ball in the paint and stellar on the defense. Great length and passing throughout the roster, especially if we're talking Rondo for Gasol.

Those are two basic core packages the Celtics could invest in for 2 seasons, a two season run. You can add pieces to that as well with further cap space too, because you're moving Rondo's contract in the deal, rather than dealing expirings like Ray and JO (who could be flipped to acquire MORE pieces in a win now, take on salary mode).

[Pogue Mahone]

I am convinced that Batum and Biedrins, with the rest of that team led by Rondo, could make noise in the playoffs. That being said, Let's remove Batum from the equation for a moment and restructure the GSW-BOS side of things.

1. Re-route Biedrins+ to NOH for Emeka Okafor

Personally, I think that Biedrins is better than Okafor if only for his better contract.

Career numbers below:

Player - 2013 - TS% - eFG% - OR% - DR% - Blk%

Okafor - 13.64 - .540 - .517_ - 11.9 - 24.9 - 4.2
Biedrins - 9.00 - .594 - .596_ - 11.9 - 24.6 - 3.7

Okafor costs $10.28M more than Biedrins over the life of their respective contracts. Even if they were completely equal players for the role needed, you go with the cheaper ($4.64M savings in 2013, $5.64 in 2014) and younger (3.5 years) player. Some might say that Okafor is the better offensive player and I say that they both should only be used in transition, on dump-offs and very few pick-and-rolls. If anything, Biedrins is the better finisher.

2. So you don't want to give up draft picks and/or you don't want to pay out money for Batum. The reason I constructed this the way I did was that we would use our Bird Rights to re-sign Batum because we would still have Allen and Garnett (possibly combined with 2013 and 2015 1st RD picks) left in the chamber and those could be used to acquire a salary dump + high level assets, if need be. I would just as soon allow Allen to ride off into the sunset. I don't think that Garnett is going to suit up next year unless it is for the Celtics and only if they are competing for a Championship.

Additionally, if you try to get cutesy and play games in FA by offering him a low contract, Portland will match.

What other scoring wings could we reasonably acquire who have size, length, athleticism, positional versatility, outside shot, proven ability to use heavy possessions without turning it over and a history of efficient play? How many of them are likely available? How many of them could be paired with Rondo in an uptempo offense?

Lastly, you guys didn't allow for the 2013 off-season. That is where I poach James Harden to be a maximum contract to be the all-around wing that blends everything together.

Rondo
Harden
Batum
J. Johnson
Biedrins

Bench: Bradley, O. Johnson, Thompson, Mbakwe, J. Tyler

Other assets: 2013 1st RD (possibly going in Batum deal) and two 2013 2nd RD (BOS and MIN via CLE)

[jmr07019]

If we miss on Howard I'd make sure we have space to offer Harden a max contract the following off season. Great points per FGA, one of the best in the league. With more touches he'd be a top scorer in the league.

[Pogue Mahone]

If we miss on Howard I'd make sure we have space to offer Harden a max contract the following off season. Great points per FGA, one of the best in the league. With more touches he'd be a top scorer in the league.

To be completely honest, I don't want Howard on this team. There are only a handful of guys around the league that I can't stand and he is one of them. He is a me first player. He is a oversized PF with neither a C or PF game. He is incredibly inept offensively. If he would just shut up, do the dirty work and take what comes to him, his team would be incredibly dominant. He is a take-away player and I want him nowhere near the Celtics.

[jmr07019]

I want Howard for his defense and rebounding. He impacts these phases of the game more than any other player in the league can. Couple that with the lack of talent at Center throughout the league and he is worth every dollar of a max contract and worthy of being a number 1 player on a championship team. Howard has never averaged over 13.4 fga per game so he's not taking away that much from his team. He's also never played with a legitimate #1 scoring option.

If we miss Howard I want Omer Asik. The Bulls have 73 mil committed to 9 guys (Rose, Rip, Korver, Brewer, Deng, Noah, Boozer, Gibson and Butler). We may have to over pay a bit but I'd rather pay Asik than Hibbert or Lopez. Asik is a better rebounder and defender than both. His offense isn't much but he can at least catch and dunk. Already knows our defensive system. A young center on a short contract will never be hard to move if we need to make a trade for the next superstar available. We add a player who greatly helps the team now and doesn't restrict the future.