Free Agents Thread

[Rafael122]

I just don't see James Harden as a realistic option. I don't think there's anyway OKC lets him go considering how well he fits alongside Westbrook. Harden is probably a little less realistic than Anderson or Batum.

Yeah I don't see Harden being available.

Well, there's still a salary cap for them to worry about. Using "Gary Braun math", even if OKC declines the options on all their guys who have rookie contracts (Aldrich, Jackson, Heyward), they will still have almost $50M committed to these 5 guys:

Durant
Westbrook
Perkins
Sefolosha
Collison

http://www.shamsports.com/content/pages ... hunder.jsp
(The link doesn't show Westbrook's new contract, but he'll be in the second year of a max extension so I'm assuming the same value as the second year of Durant's deal.)

Considering that Harden/Ibaka/Maynor will all be free agents at the same time, I don't think anything is guaranteed. Sure, they can exceed the cap to re-sign them. But even if the cap goes up a bit, they still will likely have only something like $22-23M in room before hitting the luxury tax. Assuming they let Maynor walk, that still isn't enough room to max out both Harden and Ibaka without paying the tax. And that doesn't even account for them having to still field a complete team.

Which will they do: Lock up a starting quality big man and fill out the rest of the roster without paying the luxury tax? Or max out a 6th man shooting guard and create a hole in their frontcourt in the process? Based on that, unless they do something in the coming offseason or at the trade deadline to change their roster/cap situation, I think Harden will absolutely be in play.

Someone also brought up whether or not Harden wants to make a name for himself as a starter instead of being a 6th man on "Durant and Westbrook's team". I wouldn't minimize that factor. He may end up wanting to leave, and forcing some sort of sign-and-trade.

I basically told Dat this last night and he still didn't see it. Their owner is not going to be willing to pay the luxury tax hit that is coming in the next 2 years, so they're going to choose between Ibaka and Harden, and my guess is they will go with the big. They're out West, they have to face the Bynums, Griffins of the world and they're gonna need all the bigs they can get. If Harden is a product of playing alongside Westbrook and Durant, then they can find someone in free agency who is cheaper and plug him in there.

I think they should have traded Westbrook for Rondo, Rondo is cheaper, better playmaker, and they probably would have had enough wiggle room to keep Ibaka and Harden long term.

[nate33]

I think they should have traded Westbrook for Rondo, Rondo is cheaper, better playmaker, and they probably would have had enough wiggle room to keep Ibaka and Harden long term.

I can see why they didn't. Everyone on that team except Westbrook, Durant and Harden is a defensive specialist. They couldn't afford to replace one of their few offensive weapons with another all-D no-O player. Durant can't do ALL the scoring.

Overall, I do agree with the premise that if one of Ibaka/Harden must go, Ibaka will be the guy they keep. That means there's a very real possibility that they trade Harden next season. They're going to want back a productive scoring wing on a very cheap contract. The ideal type of guy would be a seasoned college player who is productive in the NBA in his rookie season. That way, they get 4 years of very good value while the player is still on his rookie contract.

Let's hope we draft Jae Crowder and he is as good as the metrics say he could be. Maybe he could be the trade bait.

Note, OKC's other option is to try and move Perkins. I'm not sure if they could find an adequate replacement at a reasonable cost though. What they would need is somebody like Seraphin who is productive but still extremely cheap.

[Ruzious]

OKC fans are convinced they can keep their young big 4 AND Perkins with a little creative structuring. Personally, I can't see it, and Harden seems like the obvious man out - unless they trade Westbrook for another PG.

[Rafael122]

OKC fans are convinced they can keep their young big 4 AND Perkins with a little creative structuring. Personally, I can't see it, and Harden seems like the obvious man out - unless they trade Westbrook for another PG.

It was mentioned they can amnesty Perkins, but this is Clay Bennett we're talking about here. It means having to pay someone to not be on your team and then pay two guys max contracts.

[fishercob]

Guys, there are no indications that OKC is at all cash strapped. Bennett and his partners reportedly have net worth in the billions. The are the only game and town; they have to compete with other local sports for revenues. They have a really smart GM. I bet they retain both Ibaka and Harden.

[LyricalRico]

OKC fans are convinced they can keep their young big 4 AND Perkins with a little creative structuring. Personally, I can't see it, and Harden seems like the obvious man out - unless they trade Westbrook for another PG.

Working off that assumption for a moment - it doesn't make sense for them to just let Harden walk. Even a sign and trade where they take back salary might not work since we're assuming they don't want to pay the luxury tax. I'm thinking it makes the most sense to make a run at the title this year and then look at their trade options for Harden in the offseason.

Problem is he only makes $5.8M next season, so that limits their trade options. Maybe they move Harden on draft night for a high pick to get somebody like Beal or Lamb to be their new 6th man? As a Wiz fan, I'd do that and then extend Harden immediately.

[jivelikenice]

I wouldn't do that. You're taking a top 3 pick at a controlled cost and immediately flipping it for a max contract on an extension. Makes sense if you're only one piece away; we're not. We need the pick and some $ for FA.

[Dat2U]

How bout offering Ryan Anderson the max with no increases? (That's $13 mil per right?).

[Benjammin]

How bout offering Ryan Anderson the max with no increases? (That's $13 mil per right?).

If Orlando thinks they have a chance to keep Dwight, they'll just match it. The Wiz aren't getting Batum either. RFAs rarely move when the original team likes the player.

[Ruzious]

It'd probably be more fruitful to go for Ilyasova (a UFA) with a 4 year deal starting at around 8 mil.

[nate33]

How bout offering Ryan Anderson the max with no increases? (That's $13 mil per right?).

I no longer am quite so worried about the team's lack of perimeter shooters. After seeing the offense run fairly smoothly with Mason and Cartier Martin in the lineup, it is apparent to me that we can get by with the mediocre shooters currently in our front court. Booker has improved his shot so that he is at least a passable outside shooter and Nene is an above-average shooter at C.

All we really need are wings that can shoot like Mason and Martin, but who can also play some D and create some offense on their own.

I'd love to get Ryan Anderson, but it's no longer such a pressing need that I want to pay him $13M a year.

[Severn Hoos]

It'd probably be more fruitful to go for Ilyasova (a UFA) with a 4 year deal starting at around 8 mil.

Preach it, Brother Ruz!

I think it's about time for a nagging injury to slow down Ilyasova, maybe shelve him for the rest of the year as a precautionary measure. The more 20/10s he puts up this season, the higher his price is likely to go.

[nate33]

It'd probably be more fruitful to go for Ilyasova (a UFA) with a 4 year deal starting at around 8 mil.

Agreed.

And frankly, I'm not even that thrilled about going after a big man at all in free agency. The way things are shaking out, we can only handle the cost of two highly paid vets. We already have one of those guys in Nene. I think the other guy should be a wing. We don't want to commit 2/3rds of our payroll to just two positions (PF and C).

[dobrojim]

How bout offering Ryan Anderson the max with no increases? (That's $13 mil per right?).

I no longer am quite so worried about the team's lack of perimeter shooters. After seeing the offense run fairly smoothly with Mason and Cartier Martin in the lineup, it is apparent to me that we can get by with the mediocre shooters currently in our front court. Booker has improved his shot so that he is at least a passable outside shooter and Nene is an above-average shooter at C.

All we really need are wings that can shoot like Mason and Martin, but who can also play some D and create some offense on their own.

I'd love to get Ryan Anderson, but it's no longer such a pressing need that I want to pay him $13M a year.

Problem is that Mase/Martin are not more the minimal rotation players.
yeah they're doing OK now as the season winds down and other players are
injured, but I don't see how they see the floor on a better team, or how
we can be a better team with them going forward. It's nice to see them
do as well recently as they have. They each deserve a shot at next year's
roster, but I wouldn't plan on them being the long-term answer to our
general lack of shooting.

Clearly the answer should depend on who they end up picking in the
draft. If they draft players who play the 2/3, then they should go after
a rebounder/stretch 4 and vice versa.

[nate33]

How bout offering Ryan Anderson the max with no increases? (That's $13 mil per right?).

I no longer am quite so worried about the team's lack of perimeter shooters. After seeing the offense run fairly smoothly with Mason and Cartier Martin in the lineup, it is apparent to me that we can get by with the mediocre shooters currently in our front court. Booker has improved his shot so that he is at least a passable outside shooter and Nene is an above-average shooter at C.

All we really need are wings that can shoot like Mason and Martin, but who can also play some D and create some offense on their own.

I'd love to get Ryan Anderson, but it's no longer such a pressing need that I want to pay him $13M a year.

Problem is that Mase/Martin are not more the minimal rotation players.
yeah they're doing OK now as the season winds down and other players are
injured, but I don't see how they see the floor on a better team, or how
we can be a better team with them going forward. It's nice to see them
do as well recently as they have. They each deserve a shot at next year's
roster, but I wouldn't plan on them being the long-term answer to our
general lack of shooting.

Clearly the answer should depend on who they end up picking in the
draft. If they draft players who play the 2/3, then they should go after
a rebounder/stretch 4 and vice versa.

Apparently, my point came out wrong. I in no way was trying to suggest that Mason and Martin are the answers for us at wing. I'm just saying that have shown that this offense can function with competent shooters at the wing positions. We don't desperately need an expensive stretch 4. I'd rather focus our attention on finding wings that shoot like Mason and Martin, but who also bring additional skills to the table. Martin and Mason should be backups.