2012 NBA Draft Prospects

[Baddy Chuck]

I would take Drummond anywhere out of the top 6. I'm not sure how great of a fit he'd be with us without a real veteran presence and Skiles coaching but his potential is just too much for me to pass up.

[LUKE23]

I have Drummond 7th on my board as well, 8th if C. Zeller comes out.

[skones]

[

Irrelevant to his floor.

You define floor differently than I do.

How do you define it?

What a player will naturally become after a few seasons of seasoning and the natural improvement that comes along with playing with NBA players every day.

[AussieBuck]

I always thought floor was generally defined as minimal improvement. Ceiling being the almost entirely irrelevant everything that could possibly ever go right, goes right.

[emunney]

You define floor differently than I do.

How do you define it?

What a player will naturally become after a few seasons of seasoning and the natural improvement that comes along with playing with NBA players every day.

So what was Joe Alexander's floor? Most guys who get drafted are not good enough to play in the NBA and stay that way. I think Drummond is that way right now.

I think of ceiling/floor as best case/worst case, but I'm open to a more utile definition that we can all use for convenience's sake.

[skones]

How do you define it?

What a player will naturally become after a few seasons of seasoning and the natural improvement that comes along with playing with NBA players every day.

So what was Joe Alexander's floor? Most guys who get drafted are not good enough to play in the NBA and stay that way. I think Drummond is that way right now.

I think of ceiling/floor as best case/worst case, but I'm open to a more utile definition that we can all use for convenience's sake.

Joe Alexander's floor was exactly what he saw. He never had any sort of skill set that would translate to the NBA. Too small to play the four, too slow to play the three. Refinement on any of his skills was never going to change either of those things.

Drummond brings size and athleticism to the table that is unmatched by anyone in the NBA outside of Dwight Howard. He's a pretty solid rebounder at this point, and a pretty damn good shotblocker, especially given his very low foul rate. DeAndre Jordan was drafted for these exact same reasons and had the exact same red flags Drummond has, and Drummond was flat out better as a freshman.

[El Duderino]

Drummond isn't even as good as Fab Melo right now. I think of a guy's floor as "if he doesn't improve at all". Drummond's floor is a guy with NBA tools and no NBA skills.

I watched Drummond play three times and in those games at least, i was pretty blown away at just how crude his skill level was for all the hype he had coming into the season. All of the points he scored for the most part came just off dunks, put backs, or when guarded by someone much smaller. I didn't recall him showing a single post move of note and his jumper was ugly, yet he foolishly still shot it at times.

Sure, there will come a point later in the lottery where i can see it making sense for a team to roll the dice on his fabulous body/athletic gifts, but he really has a long ways to go before he can hope to become a significant contributor to an NBA team. That's where his work ethic and drive to improve will be so important. I don't know what he's like as a person, but i do clearly remember the UCONN/Marquette game and Drummond didn't show the best body language. He looked like a guy with a fairly lackadaisical attitude.

[DocHoliday]

ESPNHomeCourt ‏ @ESPNHomeCourt
#Indiana has announced that Cody Zeller and Christian Watford will be returning for the #Hoosiers.

[MikeIsGood]

Meh. Good for Cody. Maybe we'll get him next year

[DocHoliday]

Meh. Good for Cody. Maybe we'll get him next year

Probably a better chance of us getting his brother this year. Must maintain the chase for the 8th seed

[Villanoeyebrows]

Not that it is possible, but it would be interesting to see an analysis of "coachability likelihood." In summary, what percentage of guys like P Jones III (mix of physical tools and skills) actually pan out as long term NBA contributors. I can think of a ton of initial hang ups that would render the study meaningless. Like I said, you would have to exclude guys like Haislip and Alexander (that were drafted on physical tools alone) and focus on "enigma" guys (meaning guys like Jones III that had the physical attributes and the skill set to be very good). I would love to see someone tackle what percentage of those guys actually embrace the nuances of NBA play and position.

Edited to say, I am distinguishing this from guys with skills and tools who had great stats and production in college. There are a ton of metrics designed for if those guys will translate. But I am curious about these "lightbulb guys" where all they really need is for the lightbulb in their head to go on as to when they should be aggresive, when they should shoot, when they should pass, etc.

[DocHoliday]

@uconnmbbsid: #UConn: Soph Jeremy Lamb makes it official... heading for the NBA Draft

[yoshii8]

I wouldn't mind getting Lamb, but I think he'll rise up the draft boards in the next couple months.

[emunney]

Not that it is possible, but it would be interesting to see an analysis of "coachability likelihood." In summary, what percentage of guys like P Jones III (mix of physical tools and skills) actually pan out as long term NBA contributors. I can think of a ton of initial hang ups that would render the study meaningless. Like I said, you would have to exclude guys like Haislip and Alexander (that were drafted on physical tools alone) and focus on "enigma" guys (meaning guys like Jones III that had the physical attributes and the skill set to be very good). I would love to see someone tackle what percentage of those guys actually embrace the nuances of NBA play and position.

Edited to say, I am distinguishing this from guys with skills and tools who had great stats and production in college. There are a ton of metrics designed for if those guys will translate. But I am curious about these "lightbulb guys" where all they really need is for the lightbulb in their head to go on as to when they should be aggresive, when they should shoot, when they should pass, etc.

That would be pretty interesting. I have a feeling that it's a pretty low likelihood. Typically those guys don't enter the draft until after that lightbulb has come on... guys like Brandon Roy and Westbrook come to mind. Although statistically, Westbrook may be one of the best examples of the lightbulb coming on in the NBA, I think it was pretty clear to people who watched him that he was playing at a pretty high level his sophomore year.

There probably aren't many examples of guys with great skills and great tools who put it together once they get to the NBA, if only because there are so few examples of guys with great skills and great tools who don't put it together before then -- or are so good that they dominate the lower levels without firing on all cylinders.

I'd say Aldridge is a guy who didn't dominate college nearly as much as he should have, and it took him a while in the NBA for the light to come on once he got there. And it still flickers sometimes. David Lee is probably a good case study, too. Joe Johnson for wing players, Rondo for PGs.

[emunney]

Props to Hollinger for this tweet:

NBA announces Summer League will be in Las Vegas from July 13-22, and in Charlotte from yesterday til April 26.