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The book is out on Jays lineup

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Post#1 The book is out on Jays lineup
Sat Apr 14, 2012 10:09 pm by Griff83

It's become quite clear that teams are no longer challenging this lineup with fastballs.
They feel, just throw the Jays junk or stuff on the outside of the plate and the Jays will get themselves out. I have never seen a team with such little patience at the plate and almost a unwillingness to take a walk. I dont know if this is due to lineup construction or hitting philosophy but this team wont become very succesfull with this approach. Its apparently clear that teams are doing this with both Bautista and Lawrie. Just paint the corners or if you have to throw something offspeed that isnt a fastball. Teams now know Lawrie can turn on anything in the middle or inner half and until he makes adjustments he wont hit for any power.

How much longer can this Dwayne Murphy charachter survive?
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Post#2 Re: The book is out on Jays lineup
Sat Apr 14, 2012 10:20 pm by Randle McMurphy

Do you think we can maybe not draw significant conclusions based on EIGHT games played? Is that really too much to ask?

Also, Cito's 2010 team had way less patience than this group.
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Post#3 Re: The book is out on Jays lineup
Sat Apr 14, 2012 10:27 pm by vaff87

Randle McMurphy wrote:Do you think we can maybe not draw significant conclusions based on EIGHT games played? Is that really too much to ask?

Also, Cito's 2010 team had way less patience than this group.


Dude, you've been a member of realgm for a long time. You know damn well that's too much to ask for a lot of people here. People on this board and the Raptors board form opinions based on one inning (Santos), one quarter, pre-season games, etc.
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Post#4 Re: The book is out on Jays lineup
Sat Apr 14, 2012 10:42 pm by youreachiteach

Randle McMurphy wrote:Do you think we can maybe not draw significant conclusions based on EIGHT games played? Is that really too much to ask?

Also, Cito's 2010 team had way less patience than this group.


Oh please.

Look at the lineup and tell me who is a "patient" hitter.

Esco (takes a walk if jBAU is hitting)
Johnson(average)
JBau (great hitter but when not locked in very impatient--we have seen this for years)
Lind(impatient and poor selection)
Encarnacion (good fastball hitter but is susceptible to being very impatient--although improved)
Thames (near rookie, impatient)
Lawrie (good pitch selection, not bad, but he's a rookie)
Rasmus (average)
JP (god save me)

This problem has been going on for YEARS. Yes, I am aware the Jays offessive numbers aren;t bad overall. Yes, I am awayre Bautista won't suck forever. Yes, I know it's only eight games.

But don't pretend this is not a systemic problem because it is. The "it's only eight games' doesn't really matter anymore. Next time you see a Jays game, watch gameday (like I did on my tab today). Half the **** pitches are on the outer third or low and inside.

You are well aware this team needs a middle of the order bat (at least 1.)
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Post#5 Re: The book is out on Jays lineup
Sat Apr 14, 2012 11:13 pm by Tyrone Slothrop

youreachiteach wrote:Oh please.

Look at the lineup and tell me who is a "patient" hitter.

Esco (takes a walk if jBAU is hitting)
Johnson(average)




Not going to bother dealing with your entire post as it's incredibly stupid, but Yunel and KJ both have great approaches at the plate and are incredibly patient hitters.
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Post#6 Re: The book is out on Jays lineup
Sat Apr 14, 2012 11:15 pm by illy

yup. have you not seen kelly johnson this year? there should be an iq test before posting.
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Post#7 Re: The book is out on Jays lineup
Sat Apr 14, 2012 11:15 pm by Parataxis

Yeah, if only we had somebody who led the league in walks recently...
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Post#8 Re: The book is out on Jays lineup
Sat Apr 14, 2012 11:16 pm by Randle McMurphy

It appears that you're just venting at this point (as was the OP, of course), but since I'm bored, I'll humour you.

youreachiteach wrote:Oh, please.

Look at the lineup and tell me who is a "patient" hitter.

Yunel Escobar (9.5 BB% career, 10.3 BB% 2011), Kelly Johnson (10.8 BB% career, 9.8 BB% 2011), and Jose Bautista (13.4 BB% career, 20.2 BB% 2011) are each very patient hitters. Bautista is probably the most patient hitter in baseball. The fact that you called him "impatient when not locked in" is likely the most ridiculous statement in your post considering his incredible walk rate when he's gone into slumps in recent years.

Rasmus (9.4 BB% career, 9.5 BB% 2011) and Encarnacion (8.7 BB% career, 8.1 BB% 2011) have also each shown at least league average patience throughout their career, while Lawrie (9.4 BB% 2011) was promising in his short stint last season.

The only guys who don't really take pitches or walks are Lind, Thames, and JPA.

As previously mentioned, the team as a whole has a hell of a lot more patience than the 2010 team which was comprised of hackers like Hill, Gonzalez, Lind, Buck, Wells, and Fred Lewis.


This problem has been going on for YEARS. Yes, I am aware the Jays offessive numbers aren;t bad overall. Yes, I am awayre Bautista won't suck forever. Yes, I know it's only eight games.

Oh, the Jays offensive numbers are brutal overall so far. I'm just trying to understand why that is something to get upset about right now or anything to draw conclusions about. Bautista, Escobar, and Lawrie are not going to hit like this all season. Neither will Thames, JPA, or even Lind for that matter.

But don't pretend this is not a systemic problem because it is. The "it's only eight games' doesn't really matter anymore. Next time you see a Jays game, watch gameday (like I did on my tab today). Half the **** pitches are on the outer third or low and inside.

"Systematic problem?" What exactly are you ranting on about? It's not exactly news that pitchers try to hit the edges of the strike zone to get hitters out.

You are well aware this team needs a middle of the order bat (at least 1.)

This team likely needs more than a middle of the order bat to make the playoffs, but what does that have to do with the current offensive makeup of the team?
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Post#9 Re: The book is out on Jays lineup
Sun Apr 15, 2012 12:10 am by Mattd97

you want to get rid of dwayne murphy? were 9th in the majors in runs this season, 6th last year, 9th in 2010, and 8th in his first year as hitting coach in 09. before him, we were 21st in 08, and 17th in 07.
vergogna wrote:- game starts at 3.50
- nice passing at 4.15
- BARGS REBOUND at 4.47
- BARGS REBOUND (almost) at 6.23
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Post#10 Re: The book is out on Jays lineup
Sun Apr 15, 2012 6:19 am by youreachiteach

So essentially, even by your own tally using walk % (and I clearly denoted that there were times when they walked more often and times when they didn't--Bau only walked a lot in that one stretch where he didn;t hit, other stretches he hasn;t)) you are intimating 3/4 of the lineup are either average (some who reached average "at one point or another") to well below average in patience and you are dismissing it's a systemic problem?

Even if I grant you the top three, who outside of JBau are simply very good but not elite hitters, the rest are poor to below average. It's a team that struggles with walking, period. They don't work counts and are now having to foul off pitches as a philosophy because they can't get ahead in the count.

And no, not every team pitches to the corners as much as we get thrown our way. That's because we don't take pitches. Why do you think the key against the Red Sox is throw strike one? Because they all take pitches.

We'll never be the Red Sox in terms of patience: but if you are seriously trying to tell me with a straight face that patience isn't a problem on our team; especially given what Farrel himself has highlighted as a major improvement necessary this year, I don't know what to say,

--Edit-- and comparing this team to the clusterf*ck that ws 2010 doesn;t lend any credence to them being good enough,
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Post#11 Re: The book is out on Jays lineup
Sun Apr 15, 2012 7:25 am by Graham's Cracker

The Jays are actually fourth in the majors in number of pitches seen. They are middle of the road in # of walks.
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Post#12 Re: The book is out on Jays lineup
Sun Apr 15, 2012 1:29 pm by Schadenfreude

youreachiteach wrote:JBau (great hitter but when not locked in very impatient--we have seen this for years)


Not at all true; it's what made him so valuable last year, because even when he wasn't hitting, he was taking a boatload of walks.
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Post#13 Re: The book is out on Jays lineup
Sun Apr 15, 2012 2:38 pm by Duffman100

After watching 8 of the first 9 games of the season, I don't think patience is the issue. I'd say missing their pitch is the issue. I've seen a lot of fastballs go by without swings...then swinging at a pitch in the dirt right after.
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Post#14 Re: The book is out on Jays lineup
Sun Apr 15, 2012 6:44 pm by Randle McMurphy

youreachiteach wrote:So essentially, even by your own tally using walk % (and I clearly denoted that there were times when they walked more often and times when they didn't--Bau only walked a lot in that one stretch where he didn;t hit, other stretches he hasn;t)) you are intimating 3/4 of the lineup are either average (some who reached average "at one point or another") to well below average in patience and you are dismissing it's a systemic problem?

No, Bautista always walks. He's even got about a 15 BB% right now, even while he's struggling worse than I've seen him in 2 years.

Even if I grant you the top three, who outside of JBau are simply very good but not elite hitters, the rest are poor to below average. It's a team that struggles with walking, period. They don't work counts and are now having to foul off pitches as a philosophy because they can't get ahead in the count.

The Jays were 11th in the majors in walks last year. With the addition of KJ and Lawrie, that should only improve (assuming the others continue their same walk production).

And no, not every team pitches to the corners as much as we get thrown our way. That's because we don't take pitches. Why do you think the key against the Red Sox is throw strike one? Because they all take pitches.

The key against every team is to throw strike one, not just the Red Sox. It's just more important with them because they have a ton of good hitters.

We'll never be the Red Sox in terms of patience: but if you are seriously trying to tell me with a straight face that patience isn't a problem on our team; especially given what Farrel himself has highlighted as a major improvement necessary this year, I don't know what to say,

It's a problem for some (Lind, Thames, JPA) and not a problem for many others. Same as most teams. Obviously, I'd love to see the Jays improve in this area but offensive improvements either cost money (which Rogers won't spend) or prospects (which AA may not want to give up).

--Edit-- and comparing this team to the clusterf*ck that ws 2010 doesn;t lend any credence to them being good enough,

No, but it lends credence to the idea that AA is making improvements to the roster, which is the goal right now.
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Post#15 Re: The book is out on Jays lineup
Sun Apr 15, 2012 6:46 pm by kavan

For what its worth Jose is the only one who is not off to a booming start like we wanted everyone else we expected that from. Jose is hitting the ball but its going in the air and into a glove. He is still taking walks. Our offense it is safe to say is not where an AL East Championship team would be. Mean while our pitching has been solid thus far. I think the few games we lost were games you are bound to lose you have to give it up for those teams we played who made a hard push to fight back. We cant win every single game. I think once the line up turns around and that will be when Jose starts hitting bombs it will change how teams face us and then the pitching will get support and be able to hang into the games.

I think we arent firing on all cylinders yet it is true but the book is only 8 pages long because we have had 8 games to play with. I am in favour of giving Snider a call though! Especially way we are using the entire bench!
Raptors, Leafs, Jays. #Toronto
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Post#16 Re: The book is out on Jays lineup
Sun Apr 15, 2012 6:53 pm by Randle McMurphy

Oh, and yeah, maybe somebody should have gotten that book to Matusz and Gregg.
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Post#17 Re: The book is out on Jays lineup
Sun Apr 15, 2012 6:56 pm by Al_Oliver

Randle McMurphy wrote:Oh, and yeah, maybe somebody should have gotten that book to Matusz and Gregg.


I thoroughly enjoyed the Jays teeing off on Gregg
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Post#18 Re: The book is out on Jays lineup
Sun Apr 15, 2012 6:59 pm by flatjacket1

Griff83 wrote:It's become quite clear that teams are no longer challenging this lineup with fastballs.
They feel, just throw the Jays junk or stuff on the outside of the plate and the Jays will get themselves out. I have never seen a team with such little patience at the plate and almost a unwillingness to take a walk. I dont know if this is due to lineup construction or hitting philosophy but this team wont become very succesfull with this approach. Its apparently clear that teams are doing this with both Bautista and Lawrie. Just paint the corners or if you have to throw something offspeed that isnt a fastball. Teams now know Lawrie can turn on anything in the middle or inner half and until he makes adjustments he wont hit for any power.

How much longer can this Dwayne Murphy charachter survive?


Okay. Guess how many more BB's the Red Sox's have so far this season? 3. In the same amount of games. That's with Arencibia taking 1 walk in the first 28 AB's. Substitute in d'Arnaud or even Mathis and you could have beaten the Red Soxs.
Avp115 wrote:Bautista>>Mike Trout and Kendrick
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Post#19 Re: The book is out on Jays lineup
Mon Apr 16, 2012 8:21 am by satyr9

Frustration's a funny thing 'cause it'll make you remember things that never happened. The Jays are not NYY/BOS patient (or TB who's right there too), but they'll take their walks and have been so far, not that they couldn't improve.

I do think what OP is talking about is actually K% and not BB% for the Jays and is at least a partial product of the hitting coach, not just the individual players (although I'd very much hesitate to call it systemic). It's funny, but you can be a hack and take your walks at the same time. I wouldn't define it as a true hacker, 'cause the OBP doesn't suffer nearly as much, but KJ has always had borderline K rates and Bau makes himself look silly when he swings and misses. He's incredibly patient, but he's also willing to look horrible going all out on a pitch and that seems to be Murph's basic philosophy too. Wait for your pitch and go for it.

I will say that anecdotally I feel like I've seen an above average amount of pretty horrifying swings early in the year, which could make it seem like they're impatient, but to me is more about just misidentifying the pitch they are targeting. It's early and unfortunately for those a little hyped for this season you're going to hear people tell you that for at least another couple weeks to a month.
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