The 2012 Offseason Thread: Summer Planning Ideas/Talk

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I don't think Lamb will fall to 11. I think it is more likely that Sullinger falls to 11.


What is pretty likely is some team falls in love with Lamb, trades up with Toronto to snag him at 8, and lets Toronto trade down for Harkless and some other pieces.


I also don't think Barnes will make it to 6 anymore... Too many of those top teams need a SF. I think Beal, Drummond and Robinson are more likely to fall.

[Fitz303]

I don't think Lamb will fall to 11. I think it is more likely that Sullinger falls to 11.


What is pretty likely is some team falls in love with Lamb, trades up with Toronto to snag him at 8, and lets Toronto trade down for Harkless and some other pieces.


I also don't think Barnes will make it to 6 anymore... Too many of those top teams need a SF. I think Beal, Drummond and Robinson are more likely to fall.

I would be blown away if Robinson falls to 6. Beal seems to be gaining steam, but if he did drop to 6, he's the easy pick. If Drummond falls, I'm perfectly happy

[DusterBuster]

I don't think Lamb will fall to 11. I think it is more likely that Sullinger falls to 11.


What is pretty likely is some team falls in love with Lamb, trades up with Toronto to snag him at 8, and lets Toronto trade down for Harkless and some other pieces.


I also don't think Barnes will make it to 6 anymore... Too many of those top teams need a SF. I think Beal, Drummond and Robinson are more likely to fall.

I would be blown away if Robinson falls to 6. Beal seems to be gaining steam, but if he did drop to 6, he's the easy pick. If Drummond falls, I'm perfectly happy

Exactly. I could say the same thing about any of the prospects in the 2-6 range. I don't care which player falls to 6, I'll be happy. That's exactly why I have little to no interest in trying to move up in this draft.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I don't think Lamb will fall to 11. I think it is more likely that Sullinger falls to 11.


What is pretty likely is some team falls in love with Lamb, trades up with Toronto to snag him at 8, and lets Toronto trade down for Harkless and some other pieces.


I also don't think Barnes will make it to 6 anymore... Too many of those top teams need a SF. I think Beal, Drummond and Robinson are more likely to fall.

I would be blown away if Robinson falls to 6. Beal seems to be gaining steam, but if he did drop to 6, he's the easy pick. If Drummond falls, I'm perfectly happy

I am just analyzing it by the 2-6 prospects as an unranked set by team need (basically, all players equal). Beal, MKG, Barnes, Robinson, Drummond. 1 SG, 2 SF's, 1 PF, 1 C.

Charlotte needs 1 SF, 1 PF (MKG/Barnes, Robinson)
Washington needs 1 SG, 1 SF, 1 PF/C (Beal, MKG/Barnes, Robinson/Drummond)
Cleveland needs 1 SG, 1 SF, 1 C (Beal, MKG/Barnes, Drummond)
Sacramento needs 1 SF, 1 PF (MKG/Barnes, Robinson)

Now, looking at the frequency of each name
MKG and Barnes come up the most often, being a need for all 4 teams.
Next is Robinson occurring on 3 teams.
Then comes Drummond and Beal at 2 teams.


A few notes.. Washington needs a guy to pair with Nene, and it could really be either Robinson or Drummond. I also think they might prefer a SF to a SG, but all the prospects fit a need

Of course any team could screw it up by trading down or making an interesting decision (like Sacramento putting Evans at SF next to Beal, or Cousins at PF next to Drummond, or Charlotte putting Drummond and Biyombo together).

[SinceClyde]

The problem with looking at teams drafting before the blazers and what they'll draft by need is that every team has claimed to draft BPA.

[Fitz303]

I don't think Lamb will fall to 11. I think it is more likely that Sullinger falls to 11.


What is pretty likely is some team falls in love with Lamb, trades up with Toronto to snag him at 8, and lets Toronto trade down for Harkless and some other pieces.


I also don't think Barnes will make it to 6 anymore... Too many of those top teams need a SF. I think Beal, Drummond and Robinson are more likely to fall.

I would be blown away if Robinson falls to 6. Beal seems to be gaining steam, but if he did drop to 6, he's the easy pick. If Drummond falls, I'm perfectly happy

I am just analyzing it by the 2-6 prospects as an unranked set by team need (basically, all players equal). Beal, MKG, Barnes, Robinson, Drummond. 1 SG, 2 SF's, 1 PF, 1 C.

Charlotte needs 1 SF, 1 PF (MKG/Barnes, Robinson)
Washington needs 1 SG, 1 SF, 1 PF/C (Beal, MKG/Barnes, Robinson/Drummond)
Cleveland needs 1 SG, 1 SF, 1 C (Beal, MKG/Barnes, Drummond)
Sacramento needs 1 SF, 1 PF (MKG/Barnes, Robinson)

Now, looking at the frequency of each name
MKG and Barnes come up the most often, being a need for all 4 teams.
Next is Robinson occurring on 3 teams.
Then comes Drummond and Beal at 2 teams.


A few notes.. Washington needs a guy to pair with Nene, and it could really be either Robinson or Drummond. I also think they might prefer a SF to a SG, but all the prospects fit a need

Of course any team could screw it up by trading down or making an interesting decision (like Sacramento putting Evans at SF next to Beal, or Cousins at PF next to Drummond, or Charlotte putting Drummond and Biyombo together).

Well if you go by each teams Realgm page (not always very accurate) this would be the way it shakes out

Hornets - Davis - Given
Bobcats - Robinson - The best rebounder in the draft class, and is NBA ready offensively
Wizards - Beal - They're high on Seraphin, so they don't need Drummond, and feel that a shooter like Beal is a better fit with Wall, than a hustle player without much of a shot like MKG
Cavs - MKG - Easily the BPA, and the Cavs need a SF. They could also go with Barnes here, who is very close friends with Irving. But their fans are saying MKG
Kings - Drummond - This one was the closest vote (9 for Drummond, 8 for Barnes), but they like the defensive potential with Drummond. The one thing that could change this, IMO, is if the Cavs take Barnes, and MKG drops to the Kings. I dont see the Kings passing on MKG
Blazers - If it plays out the way the fans of each team would expect their teams to choose, it would leave us with Harrison Barnes. While it wouldn't be my favorite pick, the kid clearly has a ton of potential. Superstar potential. Batum seemed to thrive at SG while he was playing there for a while. I wouldn't mind seeing a Batum/Barnes SG/SF lineup

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Good analysis as well


If Barnes was the player that dropped (and it isn't unlikely), I would be fine taking him. I might shop him, drop back and take Lamb or Sullinger, but I can see Batum/Barnes on the wing. I would really want to get Marshall in that situation.

I think that Barnes would be better on Sacramento than MKG. Evans needs someone who will be able to shoot. A Drummond/Cousins pairing could go really well or really bad, and I would worry about it if I was Sacramento. With J.Thompson, SF is a bigger need, and while I know they are convinced they are getting Batum this summer, they should find that option in the draft. Sacramento could certainly make the most surprising decisions this summer though.

[Fitz303]

So if we were to decide to blow it up and completely start fresh, here is my idea.. Do these trades get approved? Who says no?

Blazers trade - Aldridge, 40th pick, 41st pick
Thunder trade - Harden, Ibaka, filler (Aldrich, Hayward)

Blazers trade - 6th pick, 11th pick, Matthews
Celtics Trade - Rondo, 22nd pick

Blazers draft Fab Melo @22

Blazers sign Spencer Hawes 4 years @ 36 Million
Blazers sign Delonte West 2 years @ 5 Million
Blazers re-sign Nicolas Batum 4 years @ 40 Million
Blazers re-sign JJ Hickson 3 years @ 12 Million

Rondo/West
Harden/ Williams
Batum/ Babbitt
Ibaka/ Hickson
Hawes/ Melo

[Mr Odd]

I have a bad feeling Bachanan will end up being the
Blazers GM. Not that he would do horrible at the job,
but that I believe its going to take someone that has
some notches on the belt & can get some good players.

[DusterBuster]

I'm really not convinced that the Kings take Drummond.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I'm really not convinced that the Kings take Drummond.

They do not shy away from drafting high risk/high reward players.

[SinceClyde]

I understand why fans shy away from Drummond; he's a pick based on potential. That's a pretty big gamble at pick 6.

On the other hand, if that gamble pays off...Scary.

[DusterBuster]

I'm really not convinced that the Kings take Drummond.

They do not shy away from drafting high risk/high reward players.

It's not that as much as there will be players on the board for them @ 5 who fill more pressing needs and will be more effective in their first year than Drummond.

I understand why fans shy away from Drummond; he's a pick based on potential. That's a pretty big gamble at pick 6.

On the other hand, if that gamble pays off...Scary.

This is my thinking exactly. As far as I'm concerned, the ONLY way the Blazers are ever going to get a C worth a damn is through the draft. Impact C's generally aren't available via trades and if they are, there's a reason for it (injury concerns usually, e.g. Andrew Bogut). As far as free agents, any team with a impact C will get signed to a big extension long before he becomes unrestricted. So at the end of the day, any C that's available via FA generally won't be worth the price tag. There's a reason the top C's on the market this summer will be the likes of Spencer Hawes (career underachiever) and Chris Kaman (high usage rate and long injury history). Some guys might become available via the Amnesty this summer like Okafor or Haywood, but neither is really going to change the course of a team and with how weak the C spot is in the NBA, they'll likely have a decent amount of teams after them.

That's why I keep coming back to the same conclusion. The only chance the Blazers will have at a high quality C in the next 5-10 years is getting one via the draft. That means you may have to take some risks. Drummond is unquestionably a HUGE risk. But I'd rather take that risk and fail than not take the risk at all.

[Blazinaway]

I'm really not convinced that the Kings take Drummond.

They do not shy away from drafting high risk/high reward players.

It's not that as much as there will be players on the board for them @ 5 who fill more pressing needs and will be more effective in their first year than Drummond.

I understand why fans shy away from Drummond; he's a pick based on potential. That's a pretty big gamble at pick 6.

On the other hand, if that gamble pays off...Scary.

This is my thinking exactly. As far as I'm concerned, the ONLY way the Blazers are ever going to get a C worth a damn is through the draft. Impact C's generally aren't available via trades and if they are, there's a reason for it (injury concerns usually, e.g. Andrew Bogut). As far as free agents, any team with a impact C will get signed to a big extension long before he becomes unrestricted. So at the end of the day, any C that's available via FA generally won't be worth the price tag. There's a reason the top C's on the market this summer will be the likes of Spencer Hawes (career underachiever) and Chris Kaman (high usage rate and long injury history). Some guys might become available via the Amnesty this summer like Okafor or Haywood, but neither is really going to change the course of a team and with how weak the C spot is in the NBA, they'll likely have a decent amount of teams after them.

That's why I keep coming back to the same conclusion. The only chance the Blazers will have at a high quality C in the next 5-10 years is getting one via the draft. That means you may have to take some risks. Drummond is unquestionably a HUGE risk. But I'd rather take that risk and fail than not take the risk at all.

totally agree on this take Duster, if we are ever going to get out of being at best a 1st or 2nd rd playoff team at best then we have to take chances

[GEE]

If it is Barnes at #6, I'd be looking to trade down a couple spots, maybe to #8 and dump S.Williams in the process. That should clear enough capspace for DWILL.

I know alot of you are thinking WTH? I personally believe that comments from players like, "I would run through a wall for this guy", when speaking about Canales, will matter when DWILL makes his decision. I think our chances are good with Canales as our coach.

At #8 Terrence J or R
At #11 Arnett Moultrie
Late 1st Ezeli or Melo