I am porting this over from the "predict Beal's stats" thread. The quoted posts from nate and me are from the end of June:
fishercob wrote:nate33 wrote:I think he'll only play about 22 minutes a game so I'm not expecting too much. He's just a 19-year-old rookie.
I think he'll be much better in his second season. Remember, Harden didn't really make an impact until his 2nd year, and didn't emerge as a borderline star until his 3rd. And Harden had 2 years of college.
Yes. Everyone, please keep your rookie expectations for BB3 (?) under control.
Just for a little, non-scientific comparison, here's a
look at Kobe, Harden, Paul George, Monta Ellis, Joe Johnson, Eric Gordon as rookies. Kobe was 18, everyone else was 20.
It's going to take some time.
WIth all the irrational Beal hate being spewed, keep in mind two things:
(1) His struggles were foreseeable. Not just by his early season struggles at FLorida (btw, how short of a memory do people have -- this kid stunk the early part of last season and then became The Man on a very good college team), but when looking at historical comps for rookie teeanged guards. That subset of players just doesn't come in and dominate. There's an adjustment period.
(2) Particularly given #1, Ernie and the Wizards have done a terrible job of putting Beal in a position to succeed. They're playing him way too many minutes. When he's on the floor, he's being asked to do way too much -- there are 10 year veteran deferring to Beal and looking to him to create offense. Is he missing open looks? Absolutely, but his his head is likely a mess given his undefined role, the fact that he has too much on his shoulders, etc. The point is not to make an excuse for Beal. The point is that Ernie sucks.
There are litlerally dozens of moves the Wizards could have made this summer apart from going "all-in" on the OkaRiza deal that would have made Beal's transition easier. Everything from making a similar deal for a vet SG like Ben Gordon to signing the likes of OJ Mayo, to bringing in more offensively skilled front court players like Scola or RYan Anderson or Brand who could have taken some scoring burden off our teenager.
Long term, I'm not worried. I think Beal is mentally tough enough to get through this. Short term, it's frustrating for all involved and yet ANOTHER example of the
putrid idiocy of Ernie Grunfeld. Suck it, Rico!
Beal's struggles were predictable, and I do not see them as indicative of the fact that he's any sort of bust.