What's Lillard's ceiling?

[Senor Chang]

just for reference, pre-draft comparisons between Rose and Lillard:

Height w/o Shoes: Rose 6' 1.5"....Lillard 6' 1.75"
Weight: Rose 196"....Lillard 189
Wingspan: Rose 6' 8"....Lillard 6' 7.75"
No Step Vert: Rose 34.5"....Lillard 34.5"
Max Vert: Rose 40.0"....Lillard 39.5"
Bench Press: Rose 10....Lillard 13
Lane Agility: Rose 11.69....Lillard 11.15
3/4 Court Sprint: Rose 3.05....Lillard 3.34

now, those aren't the sum and total of athletic ability but it does show that Rose and Lillard were pretty close in the gauges that NBA teams use to measure their prospects. There really wasn't a significant difference between them except Rose looked to have better vertical speed while Lillard seemed to have better agility

there may not be the gulf between them that many imagine

The sprint is huge when comparing to the two. Rose scored one of the highest of any top lotto picks since draft express began recording the combine results. Other noteworthy sprinters are Nate Robinson who recorded 2.96 and Eric Gordon who did 3.01.

the sprint is an important number. So is the lane agility as it factors in lateral as well as vertical speed. For PG's, the one issue with both those tests is that neither is conducted with a basketball.

The point of these are to test players raw physical abilities. It is likely if you redid the sprint test with the ball Damian would go up in the rankings but that would just weed out the non ball handlers. it will not put him near the Rose, Westbrooks, Gordon's etc..

[karkinos]

i like the jet comparison

[TheKingOfVa360]

He can be Marbury with less assists. That's his ceiling to me. Plays like a vet, very good pace. Defense lacking but can improve.

[NYK_89]

Jesus people he is 22 and has a fairly polished game by comparison a player like Jrue Holiday is only a month older, those of you expecting some vast improvement really need to step back and ask why you think he will improve. I see little to no chance that he becomes a top 10 player and likley will just become a more efficient version on himself. Not that this is bad but id still easily take Davis over him 10 times out of 10 and Beal MKG and Drummond all have far higher upside.

[Yuri Vaultin]

Not that this is bad but id still easily take Davis over him 10 times out of 10 and Beal MKG and Drummond all have far higher upside.

All have a much lower basement too.

[NYK_89]

Not that this is bad but id still easily take Davis over him 10 times out of 10 and Beal MKG and Drummond all have far higher upside.

All have a much lower basement too.

Yeah this is true, unless you are including davis i only can see injuries preventing him from becoming a greater player then Lillard. The fact is with Lillard that a lot of what you average young player improves upon is already pretty damn solid. He obviously can improve a decent amount but far less then you would assume he could when all you know is that he is a rookie.

[Wizenheimer]

Jesus people he is 22 and has a fairly polished game by comparison a player like Jrue Holiday is only a month older, those of you expecting some vast improvement really need to step back and ask why you think he will improve.

Lillard is 22

Larry Bird turned 23 when he was a rookie and already had an extremely "polished game":

as a rookie, avg of 21 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4.5 assists with a .474 FG%, .406 3pt%, and a 20.5 PER
5 years later, avg of 29 points, 10.5 rebounds, 6.6 assists with a .522 FG%, .427 3pt%, and a 26.5 PER
----------------------------------------
Brandon Roy was older as a rookie then Lillard is, and he too, had a very polished game:

as a rookie, avg of 17 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists with a .456 FG%, .377 3pt%, and a 18.0 PER
2 years later, avg of 23 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.1 assists with a .480 FG%, .377 3pt%, and a 24.0 PER
--------------------------------------

I don't know where people get this notion that somebody entering the league at 21-22 years old can't improve much. Some players have improved a great deal, and most players have improved significantly when they had good talent to begin with. This is especially true if they have BBIQ and good work ethics like Lillard has

it used to be that the vast majority of players were starting their NBA careers at around 22. Very few of them did not improve dramatically as they gained more experience.

[Yuri Vaultin]

Not that this is bad but id still easily take Davis over him 10 times out of 10 and Beal MKG and Drummond all have far higher upside.

All have a much lower basement too.

Yeah this is true, unless you are including davis i only can see injuries preventing him from becoming a greater player then Lillard. The fact is with Lillard that a lot of what you average young player improves upon is already pretty damn solid. He obviously can improve a decent amount but far less then you would assume he could when all you know is that he is a rookie.

I will go on record that I really, really like MKG and would not be surprised if he is the best of the bunch 3 years from now (although I am concerned about injuries given his style of play).

[NYK_89]

Jesus people he is 22 and has a fairly polished game by comparison a player like Jrue Holiday is only a month older, those of you expecting some vast improvement really need to step back and ask why you think he will improve.

Lillard is 22

Larry Bird turned 23 when he was a rookie and already had an extremely "polished game":

as a rookie, avg of 21 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4.5 assists with a .474 FG%, .406 3pt%, and a 20.5 PER
5 years later, avg of 29 points, 10.5 rebounds, 6.6 assists with a .522 FG%, .427 3pt%, and a 26.5 PER
----------------------------------------
Brandon Roy was older as a rookie then Lillard is, and he too, had a very polished game:

as a rookie, avg of 17 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists with a .456 FG%, .377 3pt%, and a 18.0 PER
2 years later, avg of 23 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.1 assists with a .480 FG%, .377 3pt%, and a 24.0 PER
--------------------------------------

I don't know where people get this notion that somebody entering the league at 21-22 years old can't improve much. Some players have improved a great deal, and most players have improved significantly when they had good talent to begin with. This is especially true if they have BBIQ and good work ethics like Lillard has

it used to be that the vast majority of players were starting their NBA careers at around 22. Very few of them did not improve dramatically as they gained more experience.

See this is exactly what im talking about, first off Bird is an all time great lets just ignore that one because it is completely irrelevant, its almost certain that Lillard is not in that category.

Second Roy is another one of the few examples of this playing out and is a prime example of what i am talking about with marginal improvement... Look at the splits for his rookie year he had some struggles integrating himself in the league and some consistency issues through his first few years but to pretend that he transformed into some other player far greater then the first version is incredibly false, also his numbers improve a decent amount because he also looked to score more as his career goes on. As with Lilard you can expect him to probably raise his effiency up to what .450 eventually and get to something like 20 ppg (guys he is already taking 15-16 shots a game most other people that see their scoring skyrocket also see a increase in shots) 7-7.5 assists and never be a great defender... Again a very good player, will probably make a few all star games as a reserve but hardly a Rose or Kyrie type prospect

[DavidSterned]

See this is exactly what im talking about, first off Bird is an all time great lets just ignore that one because it is completely irrelevant, its almost certain that Lillard is not in that category.

Second Roy is another one of the few examples of this playing out and is a prime example of what i am talking about with marginal improvement... Look at the splits for his rookie year he had some struggles integrating himself in the league and some consistency issues through his first few years but to pretend that he transformed into some other player far greater then the first version is incredibly false, also his numbers improve a decent amount because he also looked to score more as his career goes on. As with Lilard you can expect him to probably raise his effiency up to what .450 eventually and get to something like 20 ppg (guys he is already taking 15-16 shots a game most other people that see their scoring skyrocket also see a increase in shots) 7-7.5 assists and never be a great defender... Again a very good player, will probably make a few all star games as a reserve but hardly a Rose or Kyrie type prospect

Curious, can you find me some examples of an extremely talented player like Lillard that was Lillard's age who entered the league and then didn't improve? I'd love to know who these numerous people are.

[Yuri Vaultin]

See this is exactly what im talking about, first off Bird is an all time great lets just ignore that one because it is completely irrelevant, its almost certain that Lillard is not in that category.

Second Roy is another one of the few examples of this playing out and is a prime example of what i am talking about with marginal improvement... Look at the splits for his rookie year he had some struggles integrating himself in the league and some consistency issues through his first few years but to pretend that he transformed into some other player far greater then the first version is incredibly false, also his numbers improve a decent amount because he also looked to score more as his career goes on. As with Lilard you can expect him to probably raise his effiency up to what .450 eventually and get to something like 20 ppg (guys he is already taking 15-16 shots a game most other people that see their scoring skyrocket also see a increase in shots) 7-7.5 assists and never be a great defender... Again a very good player, will probably make a few all star games as a reserve but hardly a Rose or Kyrie type prospect

Curious, can you find me some examples of an extremely talented player like Lillard that was Lillard's age who entered the league and then didn't improve? I'd love to know who these numerous people are.

Steve Nash. Oh wait...

[Wizenheimer]

Jesus people he is 22 and has a fairly polished game by comparison a player like Jrue Holiday is only a month older, those of you expecting some vast improvement really need to step back and ask why you think he will improve.

Lillard is 22

Larry Bird turned 23 when he was a rookie and already had an extremely "polished game":

as a rookie, avg of 21 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4.5 assists with a .474 FG%, .406 3pt%, and a 20.5 PER
5 years later, avg of 29 points, 10.5 rebounds, 6.6 assists with a .522 FG%, .427 3pt%, and a 26.5 PER
----------------------------------------
Brandon Roy was older as a rookie then Lillard is, and he too, had a very polished game:

as a rookie, avg of 17 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists with a .456 FG%, .377 3pt%, and a 18.0 PER
2 years later, avg of 23 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.1 assists with a .480 FG%, .377 3pt%, and a 24.0 PER
--------------------------------------

I don't know where people get this notion that somebody entering the league at 21-22 years old can't improve much. Some players have improved a great deal, and most players have improved significantly when they had good talent to begin with. This is especially true if they have BBIQ and good work ethics like Lillard has

it used to be that the vast majority of players were starting their NBA careers at around 22. Very few of them did not improve dramatically as they gained more experience.

See this is exactly what im talking about, first off Bird is an all time great lets just ignore that one because it is completely irrelevant, its almost certain that Lillard is not in that category.

Second Roy is another one of the few examples of this playing out and is a prime example of what i am talking about with marginal improvement... Look at the splits for his rookie year he had some struggles integrating himself in the league and some consistency issues through his first few years but to pretend that he transformed into some other player far greater then the first version is incredibly false, also his numbers improve a decent amount because he also looked to score more as his career goes on. As with Lilard you can expect him to probably raise his effiency up to what .450 eventually and get to something like 20 ppg (guys he is already taking 15-16 shots a game most other people that see their scoring skyrocket also see a increase in shots) 7-7.5 assists and never be a great defender... Again a very good player, will probably make a few all star games as a reserve but hardly a Rose or Kyrie type prospect

I saw just about every game Roy played as a Blazer and what you are saying is simply not accurate. As a matter of fact, it's far away enough from accurate that it's just false

Roy was a significantly better player in his 3rd season then he was as a rookie. It's not even close statistically, and certainly not in terms of impact and outcomes. He was able to control games, and do so while being the focus of opposing defenses. He took over the Blazers and made it his team. He made his teammates better. He was not able to do that or exert his will as a rookie. He showed some flashes of it but it was fleeting.

in his 3rd season, Roy was in his first playoff series. he averaged 27 points a game while shooting 46% of FG's. 47% on threes, while posting a PER or 26 and a TS% of .562. And he did all this while being defended by a tag team of Ron Artest and Shane Battier, back when both were top-tier defenders

you can go ahead and keep telling yourself that would have only been "marginally" better then he could have done as a rookie, but that's just loopy.

and even though you think it's fair to dismiss Larry Bird as an example, it's not. I was not comparing the level of Bird and Lillard, but simply showing that players entering the league at 22 do have capacity for significant improvement, even when they are already at a high level

again, I am not saying that Lillard will or will not improve dramatically. I'm not even arguing against those that for one reason or another are not impressed with Lillard's game. But I am saying that the notion that has been expressed in this thread repeatedly about a 22 year old player having only marginal room for improvement is pure, unadulterated garbage

[actrived]

just for reference, pre-draft comparisons between Rose and Lillard:

Height w/o Shoes: Rose 6' 1.5"....Lillard 6' 1.75"
Weight: Rose 196"....Lillard 189
Wingspan: Rose 6' 8"....Lillard 6' 7.75"
No Step Vert: Rose 34.5"....Lillard 34.5"
Max Vert: Rose 40.0"....Lillard 39.5"
Bench Press: Rose 10....Lillard 13
Lane Agility: Rose 11.69....Lillard 11.15
3/4 Court Sprint: Rose 3.05....Lillard 3.34

now, those aren't the sum and total of athletic ability but it does show that Rose and Lillard were pretty close in the gauges that NBA teams use to measure their prospects. There really wasn't a significant difference between them except Rose looked to have better vertical speed while Lillard seemed to have better agility

there may not be the gulf between them that many imagine

The sprint is huge when comparing to the two. Rose scored one of the highest of any top lotto picks since draft express began recording the combine results. Other noteworthy sprinters are Nate Robinson who recorded 2.96 and Eric Gordon who did 3.01.

EG ran it in faster than Rose? I keep forgetting that he's athletic with him constantly being injured.

Damian Lillard does not have the body control to be Rose or the explosiveness to be Westbrook physically. Rose looks like a contortionist near the rim.

Russ looks like the halftime show trampoline dunkers. I'm worried one of these days he is going to end up putting the ball, and himself, through the hoop.

Lillard has spent so little time in the NBA and has far fewer miles on his legs than any of the 1 and done players at 22. He could be pretty phenomenal in the future. I'd agree with the top 5 pg tag. That's saying a lot considering the talent at the position.

[Scalabrine]

Number wise his ceiling could be 24/6/3

Hes already getting 6.6 assists per game.

Rose had 6.3 apg his rookie year.

Westbrook had 5.3 his rookie year.

Billups had just 3.8 in about 29 mpg his rookie year.

I think Lillard can put up Westbrook type numbers, but he gets his points differently.

26/8/5

It really depends on the roster he has around him.

[DaeDae]

Number wise his ceiling could be 24/6/3

Hes already getting 6.6 assists per game.

Rose had 6.3 apg his rookie year.

Westbrook had 5.3 his rookie year.

Billups had just 3.8 in about 29 mpg his rookie year.

I think Lillard can put up Westbrook type numbers, but he gets his points differently.

26/8/5

It really depends on the roster he has around him.

Those are MVP numbers. Especially for a little guy. Just ask Rose.

[Shem]

See this is exactly what im talking about, first off Bird is an all time great lets just ignore that one because it is completely irrelevant, its almost certain that Lillard is not in that category.

Second Roy is another one of the few examples of this playing out and is a prime example of what i am talking about with marginal improvement... Look at the splits for his rookie year he had some struggles integrating himself in the league and some consistency issues through his first few years but to pretend that he transformed into some other player far greater then the first version is incredibly false, also his numbers improve a decent amount because he also looked to score more as his career goes on. As with Lilard you can expect him to probably raise his effiency up to what .450 eventually and get to something like 20 ppg (guys he is already taking 15-16 shots a game most other people that see their scoring skyrocket also see a increase in shots) 7-7.5 assists and never be a great defender... Again a very good player, will probably make a few all star games as a reserve but hardly a Rose or Kyrie type prospect

Curious, can you find me some examples of an extremely talented player like Lillard that was Lillard's age who entered the league and then didn't improve? I'd love to know who these numerous people are.

Steve Nash. Oh wait...

I remember when people thought Steve Nash was a bust in his first few years in the league. Then the new millennium happened and his game started to take off.

[Shem]

Jesus people he is 22 and has a fairly polished game by comparison a player like Jrue Holiday is only a month older, those of you expecting some vast improvement really need to step back and ask why you think he will improve.

Lillard is 22

Larry Bird turned 23 when he was a rookie and already had an extremely "polished game":

as a rookie, avg of 21 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4.5 assists with a .474 FG%, .406 3pt%, and a 20.5 PER
5 years later, avg of 29 points, 10.5 rebounds, 6.6 assists with a .522 FG%, .427 3pt%, and a 26.5 PER
----------------------------------------
Brandon Roy was older as a rookie then Lillard is, and he too, had a very polished game:

as a rookie, avg of 17 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists with a .456 FG%, .377 3pt%, and a 18.0 PER
2 years later, avg of 23 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.1 assists with a .480 FG%, .377 3pt%, and a 24.0 PER
--------------------------------------

I don't know where people get this notion that somebody entering the league at 21-22 years old can't improve much. Some players have improved a great deal, and most players have improved significantly when they had good talent to begin with. This is especially true if they have BBIQ and good work ethics like Lillard has

it used to be that the vast majority of players were starting their NBA careers at around 22. Very few of them did not improve dramatically as they gained more experience.

See this is exactly what im talking about, first off Bird is an all time great lets just ignore that one because it is completely irrelevant, its almost certain that Lillard is not in that category.

Excuse me while I scratch my head because it's completely relevant because this is about how much a player can improve and it has happened so it's not impossible.

You're a Knick fan, so you can understand how I can use a guy like Patrick Ewing who was a 23-year-old rookie as another example.

Rookie Year:
20.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.06 BLKS on 47% shooting.

By year FIVE:
28.6 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 3.99 BLKS on 55% shooting.

I can do this all day because... AGAIN... 4 year college guys coming into the NBA around the age of 22 was the norm of decades. Please argue because I'll just keep posting another player as an example each time you do. There are plenty by the way.

[Apathy]

Jesus people he is 22 and has a fairly polished game by comparison a player like Jrue Holiday is only a month older, those of you expecting some vast improvement really need to step back and ask why you think he will improve. I see little to no chance that he becomes a top 10 player and likley will just become a more efficient version on himself. Not that this is bad but id still easily take Davis over him 10 times out of 10 and Beal MKG and Drummond all have far higher upside.

Agreed except that Beal sucks

There's also a very real chance this is the best season of his career. People don't like to admit that there is a non-zero chance players simply won't improve relative to their peers, or may even decline.

[EtchenBa]

For whatever reason, people just don't want to see the new guys get better than the revered older guys. I don't think it has anything to do with Lillard being 22...that's just the easiest thing to pick on.

The following may have not been majority opinions, but they were fairly common in the early career of these players:

Roy barely had any upside.
Durant was just going to be an inefficient chucker.
Harden wouldn't be good as a 1st option.
Rose is a SG not a PG.
Love is just a stat-padder who players no defense.
Z-bo is a black hole, will never be an all-star.
Yao is just tall and has no skill/is too soft.

It's all just premature bulls*** for all those players and it's the same for Lillard.

[Bskey]

Jesus people he is 22 and has a fairly polished game by comparison a player like Jrue Holiday is only a month older, those of you expecting some vast improvement really need to step back and ask why you think he will improve. I see little to no chance that he becomes a top 10 player and likley will just become a more efficient version on himself. Not that this is bad but id still easily take Davis over him 10 times out of 10 and Beal MKG and Drummond all have far higher upside.

Agreed except that Beal sucks

There's also a very real chance this is the best season of his career. People don't like to admit that there is a non-zero chance players simply won't improve relative to their peers, or may even decline.

What makes you think he wont improve though? There's no basis for thinking he will not improve or end up declining. Of course there's a chance, there always is. If your only reason for thinking this is that he's 22 though, then that's pretty damn stupid.