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Our Projected Depth Chart

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Re: Our Projected Depth Chart 

Post#441 » by hands11 » Mon Dec 24, 2012 4:06 am

Line up update.

Livingston and Barron out, Mack in

Crawford/Mack
Beal/Martin
Webster/Singleton
Nene/Ves
Okafor/Kevin

Wall, Price, Trevor A, Booker still injured.

Trevor A expect back soon.
Booker update should be coming shortly. He just got another shot in his knee
Price out with a finger till mid January
Wall just got another shot and we should be hearing something soon as he start to ramp up workouts.

Whatever clutter they had for minutes is not an issue right now. There should be minutes for Kevin, Ves and Singleton is they prove they should get them.

I think the time down in the DL is going to work out well for Mack. I don't think his game as a PG will be tons better but I do expect him to shot better from the outside and to shoot with more confidence and that is something the team needs right now at the back up PG. He is going to help because Livingston ended up being a complete dude. Couldn't hit anything from outside.

Mack has about a month to show what he has. Then Price and hopefully Wall return. Its not a huge move but it is a good move.

“Big time,” Mack said when asked if the experience has helped him. “I’ve been playing 40-plus minutes, figuring out how to get guys in the right situations, when to be aggressive, when not to be aggressive. I think it was good for me. I made a lot of strides and I think each month, I’ve been getting better and better.”
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Re: Our Projected Depth Chart 

Post#442 » by nate33 » Mon Dec 24, 2012 6:27 am

hands11 wrote:Line up update.

Livingston and Barron out, Mack in

Crawford/Mack
Beal/Martin
Webster/Singleton
Nene/Ves
Okafor/Kevin

Thanks, hands11.

I had no idea what would happen with Mack replacing Livingston. Fortunately, we have you around to figure this stuff out for us.
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Re: Our Projected Depth Chart 

Post#443 » by hands11 » Mon Dec 24, 2012 2:21 pm

Merry Christmas Nate.

Or whatever Holiday you are celebrating.
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Re: Our Projected Depth Chart 

Post#444 » by MikeTheKid » Sun Jan 20, 2013 12:23 am

Ok guys now that everyone is on the court and some are still getting healthy, what are your rotations? I would like Witt to really start to tightening the rotation a bit, 11-12 guys should be reduced to 9-10 guys:

Once Healthy

Wall (32-36)/Price (12-16)
Beal (30)/Crawford (18)
Webster (27-30)/Ariza (18-21) (Locked at SF)
Nene (28-32)/Booker (16-20)
Okafor (25-28)/Seraphin (20-23)

I would incorporate Ves, CSing and Temple sparingly with mins or if we play a big lineup Temple gets in
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Re: Our Projected Depth Chart 

Post#445 » by nate33 » Sun Jan 20, 2013 12:26 am

10-player rotation:

Wall/Price
Beal/Crawford
Webster/Ariza
Nene/Booker
Okafor/Seraphin

Vesely and Temple would only see minutes if there was an injury, foul trouble, or garbage time.
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Re: Our Projected Depth Chart 

Post#446 » by hands11 » Thu Jan 24, 2013 2:11 am

1/23/13

Wall still not starting. Hopefully next home game.
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Re: Our Projected Depth Chart 

Post#447 » by Scraptor » Thu Jan 24, 2013 7:08 am

Hey guys, what's the plan with your vets? Are you going to keep Nene/Okafor/Ariza? You seem like a pretty solid team with Wall back.
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Re: Our Projected Depth Chart 

Post#448 » by hands11 » Thu Jan 24, 2013 2:57 pm

Randy is having problems figuring out rotations.

The last 3 games Kevin has been pretty bad and Randy has clearly turned to Booker to help with toughness and rebounding but a Kevin S/Booker front court is nothing I would make a regular rotation out of. Not sure if there is a correlation but Kevin has not played well with Booker the last three games. 4 games ago he did. 5 games ago he played well with Ves.

Booker and Ves should be a fluid situation. If Kevin and Booker isn't working and the ball isn't moving so Kevin isn't getting good looks, put Ves in. He adds height and passing. Some nights one will be better then the other. Its not something you can make a hard rotation out of. You have to know which of the two matches up best with the other team that night. Since Kevin can score and has upside, he should be the constant. From there, you make a call on which of Ves or Booker to go with first and be quick to read how it is working then sub in the other if it isn't. At this point given the roster, neither Booker or Ves should be slotted as first PF off the bench. Its call coaching. Neither is the 6th man much come in. Actually, for now, I would go with Ves first and bring Booker in as the energy banger.

Or if you don't like those combinations, you can play Booker with Nene so Oakfor is available to pair with Kevin. Point is, there are better ways to do this then what Randy is doing.

Randy seems to get stuck on one thing or another.
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Re: Our Projected Depth Chart 

Post#449 » by nate33 » Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:08 pm

hands11 wrote:Randy is having problem figuring out rotations.

The last 3 games Kevin has been pretty bad and Randy has clearly turned to Booker to help with toughness and rebounding but a Kevin S/Booker front court is nothing I would make a regular rotation out of. Not sure if there is a correlation but Kevin has not played well with Booker the last three games. 4 games ago he did. 5 games ago he played well with Ves.

Booker and Ves should be a fluid situation. If Kevin and Booker isn't working and the ball isn't moving and Kevin isn't gettting good looks, put Ves in. He adds height and passing. Some night one will be better then the other. Its not something you can make a hard rotation out of. You have to know which of the two matches up best with the other team that night. Since Kevin can score and has upside, he should be the constant. From there, you make a call on which of Ves or Booker to go with first and be quick to read how it is working then sub in the other if it isn't. At this point given the roster, neither Booker or Ves should be slots as first PF off the bench. Its call coaching.

Randy seems to get stuck on one thing or another.

It's important to note that Booker just recently got back from injury and he's rusty so it's difficult to make a long term evaluation on Booker's effectiveness. Also, I think a coach has to find a balance between a stable rotation and situation substitutions. Randy's MO has been to find a rotation and stick with it for at least 5 games before tweaking it. I don't have a problem with this, it gives the players confidence that they won't get yanked for the smallest mistake.

I think now, 7 games into Wall's return, it's time to tweak the rotations - specifically to move Wall into the starting lineup permanently, but I wouldn't do much with the rest of the rotation. I'd continue to go with Booker at backup PF and continue to bench Vesely for a few more games. If Booker doesn't shake the cobwebs off in another 5 games or so, then maybe I'd reevaluate.
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Re: Our Projected Depth Chart 

Post#450 » by hands11 » Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:23 pm

I don't have a problem with that as a general approach to line ups, but at the same time, that shouldn't get in your way when it comes to game time coaching. More specifically, I wouldn't sit by and watch a line up suck when I had other options to try. I'm not losing a game over being stuck in my preferred approach to things.

He had the balls enough to have Crawford in late last game for the win over Beal.

There is no reason he should stick with Booker exclusively at the cost of not trying Ves at all. Specially when you are talking about a second unit that has been lead by Wall who wants to run and Ves is a target Wall finds for easy dunks.

The last two games have been baffling regarding what Randy does.
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Re: Our Projected Depth Chart 

Post#451 » by nate33 » Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:53 pm

hands11 wrote:I don't have a problem with that as a general approach to line ups, but at the same time, that shouldn't get in your way when it comes to game time coaching. More specifically, I wouldn't sit by and watch a line up suck when I had other options to try. I'm not losing a game over being stuck in my preferred approach to things.

He had the balls enough to have Crawford in late last game for the win over Beal.

There is no reason he should stick with Booker exclusively at the cost of not trying Ves at all. Specially when you are talking about a second unit that has been lead by Wall who wants to run and Ves is a target Wall finds for easy dunks.

The last two games have been baffling regarding what Randy does.

It's easy to say this in hindsight, but if Booker happened to play better in the 2nd half, you would be praising Randy for sticking with Booker (indeed, in the 2nd half, the 2nd unit with Booker were the ones who spearheaded that 20-2 run). The bottom line is that you don't know if a player who is playing badly is going to continue to play badly on his second stint. If you get into the habit of not giving someone a second run just because they played poorly in the first half, you are going to erode the confidence of that player.

The Booker/Vesely situation is different from the Beal/Crawford situation. There's a difference between benching a player for playing badly and riding a hot hand. If Crawford is lighting it up in the 2nd unit, it's fine to leave Beal on the bench a little longer and stick with Crawford. The same goes for Ariza and Seraphin. If they are playing well early in the 4th quarter, Randy often rides them out for the rest of the game rather than bringing back Webster or Okafor.
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Re: Our Projected Depth Chart 

Post#452 » by hands11 » Thu Jan 24, 2013 7:06 pm

Not trying to get into an argument.

Just voicing my view and frustration.

I think Randy was being to rigid and I felt that way last game and the game before so it isn't hind sight. I thought that way during the game. I was also hoping he didn't go back to Nene to end last game because I strongly felt he would be no different then he was earlier in the game. Just wasn't his night.

Ves should have been given a chance when they stalled with Kevin and Booker. Both were not playing well together. Booker did at least rebound the ball. I felt the offense was disorganized and the ball wasn't moving. If nothing else, Ves moves the ball. Certainly don't have to worry about him taking bad shots.

Hopefully this stuff gets worked out when Wall returns to the starting line up. And hopefully Beal finds his 3 ball again. He has had a rough last two games.
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Re: Our Projected Depth Chart 

Post#453 » by nate33 » Thu Jan 24, 2013 8:06 pm

hands11 wrote:Not trying to get into an argument.

Just voicing my view and frustration.

I think Randy was being to rigid and I felt that way last game and the game before so it isn't hind sight. I thought that way during the game. I was also hoping he didn't go back to Nene to end last game because I strongly felt he would be no different then he was earlier in the game. Just wasn't his night.

Ves should have been given a chance when they stalled with Kevin and Booker. Both were not playing well together. Booker did at least rebound the ball. I felt the offense was disorganized and the ball wasn't moving. If nothing else, Ves moves the ball. Certainly don't have to worry about him taking bad shots.

Hopefully this stuff gets worked out when Wall returns to the starting line up. And hopefully Beal finds his 3 ball again. He has had a rough last two games.

Fair enough. I'm not trying to argue either. It's just that I get frustrated with the constant second-guessing of any of our coaches as if we know more than these guys. In general, the criticisms are made with 20/20 hindsight. If a decision made by Randy didn't work, he gets blamed for being wrong. That analysis assumes an unknowable fact: that the alternative choice would have been better, and also that it would have been sufficiently better to impact the outcome of the game. After all, every game has only 1 winner and 1 loser. All losses are not coaching errors.
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Re: Our Projected Depth Chart 

Post#454 » by dobrojim » Thu Jan 24, 2013 8:39 pm

It's just that I get frustrated with the constant second-guessing of any of our coaches as if we know more than these guys.


I can relate.

What I get frustrated with is how every injury is somehow the fault
of our trainers and medical staff. NO ONE here on realGM has access
to the kind of information that would allow them to make INFORMED
criticisms of the sort we have routinely seen.

So far, BIG knock on wood, it appears our staff MAY have handled
the Wall situation totally correct. Yet there is a deafening silence
on the board commenting on that. Maybe being Wizards fans everyone
is holding their collective breath.

And OK all you Bud Lite fans who think it's only weird if it doesn't work
(how stupid is that?), it'll totally be my fault if Wall blows out his knee Friday night
(or anytime before the end of the season).
A lot of what we call 'thought' is just mental activity

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Those who are convinced of absurdities, can be convinced to commit atrocities
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Re: Our Projected Depth Chart 

Post#455 » by hands11 » Thu Jan 24, 2013 11:28 pm

nate33 wrote:
hands11 wrote:Not trying to get into an argument.

Just voicing my view and frustration.

I think Randy was being to rigid and I felt that way last game and the game before so it isn't hind sight. I thought that way during the game. I was also hoping he didn't go back to Nene to end last game because I strongly felt he would be no different then he was earlier in the game. Just wasn't his night.

Ves should have been given a chance when they stalled with Kevin and Booker. Both were not playing well together. Booker did at least rebound the ball. I felt the offense was disorganized and the ball wasn't moving. If nothing else, Ves moves the ball. Certainly don't have to worry about him taking bad shots.

Hopefully this stuff gets worked out when Wall returns to the starting line up. And hopefully Beal finds his 3 ball again. He has had a rough last two games.

Fair enough. I'm not trying to argue either. It's just that I get frustrated with the constant second-guessing of any of our coaches as if we know more than these guys. In general, the criticisms are made with 20/20 hindsight. If a decision made by Randy didn't work, he gets blamed for being wrong. That analysis assumes an unknowable fact: that the alternative choice would have been better, and also that it would have been sufficiently better to impact the outcome of the game. After all, every game has only 1 winner and 1 loser. All losses are not coaching errors.


And it being an unknowable fact is part of the frustration. Had he at least tried it, then we would know. On the other hand, when you see something not working and you see what you feel is an reasonable alternate solution and it isn't even tried, that gets frustrating. Just like people are frustrated we didn't see enough Beal and Wall. For the last two games I felt Ves should have been put in the game and it didn't happen.

On the other hand, I completely agree not using him in the LAC game. I could just tell that was a bad match up the way the game was being played. But in the Portland and Utah games, I think he should have been tried.

Just my view. Something tells me he could have helped move the ball around and spread the floor and get out on some breaks with Wall. But we will never know since it wasn't tried for even 1 minute.
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Re: Our Projected Depth Chart 

Post#456 » by Nivek » Fri Jan 25, 2013 3:41 pm

Honestly, one of my bigger coaching criticisms of Wittman is that he's too flexible in his lineups. Coaches (in general) do a lousy job of picking out "hot hand." The classic reaction is something like -- "He just made three in a row. He's hot. Give him the ball." And then the player starts missing. There's no research on non-shooting "hot streaks" (a series of good defensive plays, for example), but I don't see any reason why there'd be a significant difference in the basic finding.

The better way of going about it is to pick the best players and work a rotation around them. If a guy plays like ass for a few games, drop him from the rotation or reduce his minutes until he starts playing better. But trying to guess night to night who "has it" and who doesn't is a loser's bet. Even for a team as talent starved as the Wizards.

The Wizards rotation should look something like this:

PG -- Wall and Price
SG -- Beal and Crawford
SF -- Ariza and Webster
PF -- Nene and Booker
C -- Okafor and Nene

Nene's minutes limitation might necessitate a few minutes of Seraphin. And, maybe you want to keep Seraphin in the mix to try and give him developmental minutes. That's fine. But Wittman shouldn't try to find who's playing well each night and then try to have them on the floor at the end of games. He should pick his best guys and plan to use them as much as possible, and plan to have them on the floor late.

Only real "exceptions" I can see would be at SG and SF. At SG because Beal is so young. At SF because there's an almost pure offense/defense division between Webster and Ariza. But otherwise, the odds are very much in favor of using best players in key situations. Wall, Nene and Okafor are absolutes on this roster.
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Re: Our Projected Depth Chart 

Post#457 » by DCZards » Fri Jan 25, 2013 4:17 pm

Nivek, I think you absolutely have to keep Seraphin in the regular rotation. Yes, he's frustratingly inconsistent on the offensive end and a piss poor rebounder for a big man, but he's the only young big with a decent amount of upside/potential.
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Re: Our Projected Depth Chart 

Post#458 » by nate33 » Fri Jan 25, 2013 4:35 pm

DCZards wrote:Nivek, I think you absolutely have to keep Seraphin in the regular rotation. Yes, he's frustratingly inconsistent on the offensive end and a piss poor rebounder for a big man, but he's the only young big with a decent amount of upside/potential.

It's pretty much a moot issue anyhow. Okafor and Nene can't really play more than 30-32 minutes (few bigs can on a consistent basis). That leaves 32-36 reserve minutes at PF and C. Booker can't play them all without having to play 18-minute stretches in each half. You simply must have a 4 big rotation. Seraphin and Booker must play.

Basically, Wittman should do pretty much what he has been doing at the PF and C spots.

PF Nene/Seraphin
C Okafor/Booker

I put Seraphin at backup PF because Wittman has essentially been using Seraphin to sub for Nene since Seraphin has offensive skills. And he has been using Booker to sub for Okafor since Booker is basically a dirty work grunt like Okafor. Obviously, matchup-wise, Seraphin has been guarding the opposing C and Booker guarding the opposing PF.
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Re: Our Projected Depth Chart 

Post#459 » by nate33 » Fri Jan 25, 2013 4:43 pm

Nivek wrote: But Wittman shouldn't try to find who's playing well each night and then try to have them on the floor at the end of games. He should pick his best guys and plan to use them as much as possible, and plan to have them on the floor late.

Only real "exceptions" I can see would be at SG and SF. At SG because Beal is so young. At SF because there's an almost pure offense/defense division between Webster and Ariza. But otherwise, the odds are very much in favor of using best players in key situations. Wall, Nene and Okafor are absolutes on this roster.

I don't mind when a coach attempts to ride a "hot hand". I think the rotation through the first 3.5 quarters should be pretty fixed (assuming no unusual fouls, injuries or ejections). But down the stretch in the 4th quarter, it's okay to leave a reserve in if he is playing well. I think there is something to a "hot hand", or at least there is reason to believe that certain matchups are more advantageous than other matchups.

There will be nights when either Crawford or Seraphin are playing well and exploiting a matchup better than Beal or Okafor would. I don't mind Randy riding them down the stretch. We've definitely seen a few games where Seraphin couldn't be stopped. The Denver game comes to mind. Faried couldn't guard him. You don't take Seraphin out of game when he is playing like that.
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Re: Our Projected Depth Chart 

Post#460 » by Nivek » Fri Jan 25, 2013 4:57 pm

I understand what you're saying. But, coaches -- hell, all of us -- are prone to recognizing patterns where they don't exist and to being overly attuned to perceived hot streaks. I don't want my coach searching for a hot hand to leave in the game. I want him playing the percentages, which means keeping the best players on the floor. There are going to be a few exceptions based on matchups -- your example about Seraphin against Faried is a good one.

But those are exceptions. And, the matchup advantage needs to be big enough to offset what you're giving up in other areas.
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