Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I

[nate33]

It's Otto...defense, length, shooting, and can create better than he's getting credit for. We might be able to trade down and pick up a player while still drafting hm.

if we land the number one over all pick, i think we call the suns they should have 2 loto picks and we trade pack with them. but who knows, i doubt we get that pick... Some how some way, the league will magically find some how to give it to the Lakers, if not this year then next year. that and, if the kings move to Seattle there do to be handed a 1st overall to.

If we land the number one pick, draft Noel and don't look back.

There are two types of players that are nearly impossible to acquire: game-changing defensive bigs, and high usage, high efficiency scorers. There are no high usage, high efficiency scorers in this draft. There is exactly one game-changing defensive big. Take him.

Guys like Porter, Oladipo, etc are neither. They can be good pros, no doubt, but you can find other players to fill those roles via free agency.

[mhd]

Top 2 picks are locked. It goes Noel then Shabazz. It's interesting that Griffin felt the need to come back for another year but Noel not. I guess Griffin wasn't guaranteed the #1 spot ahead of Rose, Beasley, Mayo but he would have competed with Love for a top 5 pick, no?

I don't think Shabazz is locked in the #2 spot. It really depends on who is picking. IMO, Noel should be locked in as the #1 pick. I think the Bobcats would take Mclemore or Zeller before Shabazz. The Magic would probably be the same way. I do like Shabazz more than most.

[pancakes3]

I think the 'cats take Noel just the same as anyone else. Mullens is shooting sub-40% from the field.

[stevemcqueen1]

Steve, stars don't disappear at the end of close games. That 2ble OT game v Ok State - McLemore completely disappeared, and even though Smart was having a tough game - he kept battling till the end. And the Indiana game - Oladipo was the embodiment of what a star is supposed to do.

As far as athleticism goes, when you include strength, Oladipo is at least as good an athlete as McLemore. Just because he's not shaped like the picture of the perfect athlete doesn't mean he isn't a great athlete. He does things on the court that indicate he is a great athlete - even if he has slumping shoulders and looks a bit heavy around the waist.

Again, it's just one game. In a huge game a little over a week ago against Kansas St., top ten opponent, arch rival, McLemore completely dominated and hung 30 on them. He looked like a star then.

Who knows if these kids are going to be stars in the NBA? My guess is that neither will be, and the odds are going to be hugely on my side.

I'd hesitate to say anyone in CBB is an equal athlete to McLemore except maybe Tony Mitchell. He's pretty strong for his size, I'm not sure Oladipo is appreciably stronger. McLemore looks almost as fast as Wall flat out and I think he's probably the most explosive leaper in CBB.

Not that any of that means he'll be a star. Though the stars usually have something about them physically that sets them apart early on in their careers.

Ultimately I think neither are future stars or franchise guys. The only guys I've seen that seem to have that kind of makeup are Smart, Bennett, Muhammad, Noel, and maybe Zeller. And I think Bennett and Smart have some limitations to them, particularly physically, that will probably keep them from being star players in the NBA.

[Nivek]

Looked at McCollum in YODA. Rates as a top 10 pick in a typical draft. Definitely a better shooter than Wall. His 2pt% is lower than I'd like.

[nuposse04]

Looked at McCollum in YODA. Rates as a top 10 pick in a typical draft. Definitely a better shooter than Wall. His 2pt% is lower than I'd like.

You may have commented this before and I may have missed it, but how does Porter fair in a normal draft according to YODA?

[Nivek]

Looked at McCollum in YODA. Rates as a top 10 pick in a typical draft. Definitely a better shooter than Wall. His 2pt% is lower than I'd like.

You may have commented this before and I may have missed it, but how does Porter fair in a normal draft according to YODA?

Porter's rating so far this season is consistent with being a top 10 pick. He rates a bit below McCollum -- closer to 10 than to 5. Looking a bit deeper into the numbers, Porter is very efficient offensively, albeit on the low usage end of the spectrum. A potential concern is a lower 2pt%. That's sometimes a sign of a prospect who lacks athleticism, but Porter gets plenty of steals and is a decent shot blocker, which are good signs. And, his 2pt% as a freshman was excellent. His 3pt shooting is MUCH better this season, and his FT shooting is better too. Looks like he could be a solid pro.

Keep in mind that none of these preliminary YODA scores include the "physical attributes" part. That doesn't get entered until the combine.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Looked at McCollum in YODA. Rates as a top 10 pick in a typical draft. Definitely a better shooter than Wall. His 2pt% is lower than I'd like.

McCollum reminds me of Walt "Clyde" Frazier. He is not yet a distributor and not a PG, but if an NCAA player can successfully make the transition to NBA PG, McCollum is a good candidate to do so.

I absolutely love the way CJMC plays. He's way better than Austin Rivers, who IIRC went #10 in this past draft.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Looked at McCollum in YODA. Rates as a top 10 pick in a typical draft. Definitely a better shooter than Wall. His 2pt% is lower than I'd like.

You may have commented this before and I may have missed it, but how does Porter fair in a normal draft according to YODA?

Porter's rating so far this season is consistent with being a top 10 pick. He rates a bit below McCollum -- closer to 10 than to 5. Looking a bit deeper into the numbers, Porter is very efficient offensively, albeit on the low usage end of the spectrum. A potential concern is a lower 2pt%. That's sometimes a sign of a prospect who lacks athleticism, but Porter gets plenty of steals and is a decent shot blocker, which are good signs. And, his 2pt% as a freshman was excellent. His 3pt shooting is MUCH better this season, and his FT shooting is better too. Looks like he could be a solid pro.

Keep in mind that none of these preliminary YODA scores include the "physical attributes" part. That doesn't get entered until the combine.

I love Porter's game, too!

Three guys stand out, besides Noel: Smart, Porter, and McCollum. I also like the way Doug McDermott plays, even though he is more physically overmatched than even weaker-bodied Porter and McCollum. All those guys know how to play basketball. (Dat, so do Kenny Kadji, Andre Roberson, Allen Crabbe, Isaiah Canaan, Michael Snaer, Durand Scott, Nate Wolters, Jamaal Franklin, Erik Murphy, and the most underrated Jack Cooley)--yes, I like this draft.)

Smart had a brick fest of a game against KU and McClemore, but he's the one player who I think has the physical goods and the basketball IQ along with extreme motor and motivation to make him a certain, can't miss, great player at the next level.

Porter is a guy the Wizards should have no reservations about if they draft him. Otto Porter is a cross between Steve Smith, Grant Hill, and Chris Bosh. I like the way he rebounds. I think he can play anything from SF, to PF, to SG. I think he's got the kind of body that a Paul George does. Great length with athleticism go a long ways in the NBA. Porter is not a volume shooter or scorer, but I think he's got potential to be a reliable scorer.

Maybe Luol Deng would be the best comparison I have for Porter right now. I like him a lot.

[Nivek]

Looked at McCollum in YODA. Rates as a top 10 pick in a typical draft. Definitely a better shooter than Wall. His 2pt% is lower than I'd like.

McCollum reminds me of Walt "Clyde" Frazier. He is not yet a distributor and not a PG, but if an NCAA player can successfully make the transition to NBA PG, McCollum is a good candidate to do so.

I absolutely love the way CJMC plays. He's way better than Austin Rivers, who IIRC went #10 in this past draft.

Rivers did go #10, but he had a "don't draft" rating in YODA. As in, "don't even pick him in the 2nd round." McCollum has a good rating in YODA.

Players with a similar rating:
- Hibbert (JR)
- James Anderson (SO & JR)
- Patrick Patterson (SO & JR)
- MKG (FR)
- Wesley Johnson (JR)
- Shelden Williams (SR)
- Marcus Morris (JR)
- Ty Lawson (FR)
- Juan Dixon (JR)
- Danny Green (JR)
- Thomas Robinson (SO)
- Josh Howard (JR)
- Camby (JR)

[Nivek]

Ran the numbers on McDermott. He rates highly -- actually a shade ahead of Porter, BUT without the physical part included. High usage, extremely efficient. Shoots well from everywhere. High 2pt%. Adequate rebounder. I see that DX has him at #46 right now in their mock. Seems like he'd be a good pickup in the 2nd round, depending how his measurements go. Seems like a future role player for the Spurs.

[AFM]

How about Shabazz?

[stevemcqueen1]

If you get the first overall pick and are in position to take Nerlens Noel, do you press the reset button on everything and start over building around a new #1? Fire Ernie and Wittman and everyone, right down to the scouts and medical staff?

[stevemcqueen1]

Ran the numbers on McDermott. He rates highly -- actually a shade ahead of Porter, BUT without the physical part included. High usage, extremely efficient. Shoots well from everywhere. High 2pt%. Adequate rebounder. I see that DX has him at #46 right now in their mock. Seems like he'd be a good pickup in the 2nd round, depending how his measurements go. Seems like a future role player for the Spurs.

Have you already run the numbers on Zeller? If so, what do they say?

[stevemcqueen1]

Beals defense has actually been a pleasant surprise. Here's the short list of rookie guards who had a dRTG under 105 that played 30+ mpg

That is pleasantly surprising and it shows Beal is ahead of the curve. His dRating is better, by far, than MKG's, Lillard's, and Waiters's. Better than Kyrie's last season and this season. Better than Wall's was his first two years.

Drummond has the best ratings in the class but he's not played comparable minutes. Davis has the best ratings in the class among the guys who've played starters minutes and Beal's dRTG is just behind Davis's. You can argue he's been the second best rookie defender in the class.

He works hard on D. He fights through screens and works to stay in front of his man and contest every shot in his area. I think he's got the ability the be a very high perimeter quality defender down the line.

[Super2477]

by AFM on Fri Feb 22, 2013 4:41 pm

How about Shabazz?


I like his game a lot. His game is a little PP34 and Harden. I wonder could he coexist with Beal and WAll though

[nate33]

Beals defense has actually been a pleasant surprise. Here's the short list of rookie guards who had a dRTG under 105 that played 30+ mpg

That is pleasantly surprising and it shows Beal is ahead of the curve. His dRating is better, by far, than MKG's, Lillard's, and Waiters's. Better than Kyrie's last season and this season. Better than Wall's was his first two years.

Drummond has the best ratings in the class but he's not played comparable minutes. Davis has the best ratings in the class among the guys who've played starters minutes and Beal's dRTG is just behind Davis's. You can argue he's been the second best rookie defender in the class.

He works hard on D. He fights through screens and works to stay in front of his man and contest every shot in his area. I think he's got the ability the be a very high perimeter quality defender down the line.

I don't trust the DRtg stat. It's too dependent on the defensive ability of the team as a whole, and team defense is predicated on having good defensive big men. As Exhibit A, I point to Jordan Crawford. Last year he had a DRtg of 110. This year it's 105. Did he really improve defensively? What about John Wall? Last year, it was a 107. This year, a 102. I think the good defensive ratings are primarily due to the presence of Okafor and Nene.

Beal looks to me to be a pretty good defender except when overmatched by size, but I'm unmoved by the use of DRtg to prove it.

[Nivek]

Nate's right INDIVIDUAL drtg isn't a good stat. I wish they'd take it off b-r. It's basically a series of estimates, which have been shown to be not very accurate when compared to hand-tracked data. Better stats for defense are defensive on/off and RAPM.

[Nivek]

How about Shabazz?

When I ran Shabazz earlier in the season, he graded out as a later lottery pick, if I recall correctly. McLemore rated better. That was a few weeks back, though.

[Nivek]

Ran the numbers on McDermott. He rates highly -- actually a shade ahead of Porter, BUT without the physical part included. High usage, extremely efficient. Shoots well from everywhere. High 2pt%. Adequate rebounder. I see that DX has him at #46 right now in their mock. Seems like he'd be a good pickup in the 2nd round, depending how his measurements go. Seems like a future role player for the Spurs.

Have you already run the numbers on Zeller? If so, what do they say?

It was a few weeks ago, and it didn't incude any physical attributes, but he had a score consistent with being a #1 overall pick in most drafts.