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2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?)

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Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?) 

Post#281 » by Deeeez Knicks » Thu Jul 18, 2013 4:54 pm

cgmw wrote:Again, I'm not pretending to know the right or wrong way to do things. All I'm pointing out is a consistent pattern of acquire-now, pay-later.


Yeah, that sums up the Knicks strategy.

suicidedeuce wrote:
cgmw wrote:Again, I'm not pretending to know the right or wrong way to do things. All I'm pointing out is a consistent pattern of acquire-now, pay-later.


And I'd argue that's relatively consistent with how the NBA does business.

The Bulls paid Boozer and may even may Deng again.

The Heat knew they were looking at mini MLE and vet min signings for as long as their big 3 are on their roster.

The Celtics made their big move getting the big 3.

Nets are getting a LOT of credit for doing it to the EXTREME.

In order to truly compete in the postseason, you usually have to go ALL in. I understand how fans LOVE the idea of perpetual flexibility and a roster made to constantly turn over, I just don't see the evidence that this can co-exist with being a genuine postseason contender.

Is the Knicks ALL-IN going to result in a title? I perfectly understand the skepticism, but we seem not to arguing the success of their all-in, we seem to be arguing against going all-in at all.

Knicks went all-in for Melo, Stat and Chandler and it HAS been designed to some degree to have an out/reset in 2015.

The success of that move is certainly up to debate (I only stipulate it will continue to be open to debate until 2015).

But criticizing thm for going all-in at all seems disconnected to NBA reality to me.


Its not so much going ALL in that is wrong. It is going ALL-IN when you don't have the hand to go all in. Look at Chandler, Amare, Melo...I mean individually none of those deals were terrible. But combined when it was all said and done its a lot to commit for a trio that doesn't work great while leaving ourselves little room to improve.

Ultimatley we rushed to put this all together and committed to something that isn't a great fit. If we were a little more patient, we may have had better results.

Even with Bargs....even if he works out I think he will be too much of a liability on defense along with Melo that it'll never work long term in the playoffs.
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Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?) 

Post#282 » by R-DAWG » Thu Jul 18, 2013 4:54 pm

suicidedeuce wrote:
ORANGEandBLUE wrote:[
We wouldn't have had to target 2-3 years down the road had we amnestied Amare. Had we amnestied him in 2011, we could have signed Tyson plus another decent FA, and then traded Billups expiring for another player. Easily the better way to go, in hindsight and foresight. The reason we didn't has nothing to do with Amare's injuries being somehow unpredictable; it was more that it would have been a bad PR move. Now that's understandable, but let's not act like it was a smart bball move.

edit: amnestying Amare also would have been tough financially, so that's another non-bball defense for not taking that course.


Huh?

You wanted the Knicks to amnesty Stat in 2011, after emerging as the team's leader, finishing in the Top 10 in the MVP voting, so he could go play for another team on the Knicks $100m dime for 4 more years?

C'mon fellas.


who said amnesty stat in 2011? Why not roll out Amare, Melo and Billups. If Amare was healthy you could make a deep playoff run and if it wasn't you had no chance. Billups was on an expiring deal and you could use the mid level to sign someone to a 1 year, $5m deal, bi annual for a 1 year - $1.9m deal. Sure Tyson was great, but people are overlooking the point.

If you amnesties Amare after last season and didn't sign Chandler you have Melo on the roster along with Shump making a combined $21 or so million. Even with $4.5m in cap holds and lets say $5.5m to a mid level player your looking at $28 million in cap space to rebuild around a 28 year old Carmelo Anthony. In 2015 were looking at less cap space to build around a 31 Carmelo Anthony.

TKF said it best. This organization only cares about NOW not about the future. Look at every move that was made since Donnie dumped Randolph and Crawford. Holding onto Lee, holding onto Nate, trading assets to clear Jefferies bringing back McGrady and creating headlines. Amare's signing, signing Chandler while his name was hot. Jason Kidd and Marcus Camby. Bargnani as a response to the Nets.

Lets say we enter 2015 with cap space. Player A is younger, a better basketball fit and a better player but player B is a bigger name. Who are the Knicks signing?

The Knicks are heading in the wrong direction. And as bad as Walsh was here, it was so much better than it was before and what after is turning into.
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Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?) 

Post#283 » by GONYK » Thu Jul 18, 2013 4:55 pm

ORANGEandBLUE wrote:Yeah, I mean this notion that a GM who goes all in once, will always go all in, is pretty clearly refuted by what Ainge did this summer.


How so?

Ainge was forced to blow it up. Can't win now with KG and Pierce.
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Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?) 

Post#284 » by R-DAWG » Thu Jul 18, 2013 4:58 pm

suicidedeuce wrote:
ORANGEandBLUE wrote:
seren wrote:[

Realistically, there was no way for that to happen.

I understand. I'm just saying that from a pure bball standpoint, it was not only sensible, but a flat-out no-brainer. And hindsight is overwhelmingly on my side.


And this is the rub. When I evaluate the Glen Gruwald, I'm scruntinizing him with realistic expectations, I don't filter the criticism through my own fantasies.

I judge him on how he's doing the job he's been given to do, and not MY PERSONAL fantasy version of his job description.

The Chandler move was perfectly reasonable considering the ACTUAL circumstances.

To suggest Knicks would use the amnesy of Stat a couple of months after getting Melo is ridiculous from any pragmatic standpoint, not matter how much you want to defend it from a purely basketball perspective.


you do understand how the amnesty works, right? You didn't need to use the amnesty in 2011. It could have been used in 2012 or 2013 or whenever. As long as Amare was playing like a max player you had a chance to go deep in the playoffs and as soon as he broke down his contract would hold the team back. As good as Chandler was in 2011-2012, it left the team without any guards and extremely flawed. And the team will be flawed until Amare comes off the books.

Here we are, 2 years and 2 playoff disappointments later, wasting away the prime of Melo's career.
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Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?) 

Post#285 » by suicidedeuce » Thu Jul 18, 2013 4:59 pm

Capn'O wrote:I think this is right. I heavily questioned the Melo move as I don't think he's a guy that can carry a deep playoff run. But once you commit... Commit hard.


I took flack last night for not being fully committed to ONE opinion, but I am committed to ONE concept, nuance.

I have doubts whether Melo is that guy either.

I also think he may have been the Knicks best option.

Those things can co-exist.

There is one Lebron James. And I think the KNicks took an honest pass at him. I have honest questions about who the next generation of franchise superstars are after Durant and Rose (who BOTH still have incomplete resumes themselves).

Sometimes the best move is the best available move.

The Knicks Stat-Melo window may close like the windows for most every competitive championship does, with a title, but I don't see this obvious alternative soem of your seems to think existed or would exist.

Hell, even the POTENTIAL 2015 FA class of Gasol, Love, Rondo and Aldridge doesn't exactly inspire awe.

Knicks are a HIGHLY imperfect team. Given the starting point of 2010, I'm not sure how reasonable it is to expect otherwise.

I can't kill the Knicks for the make-up of this team - it may not work, but that doesn't mean it may not also have been the best you could have reasonably expected.
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Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?) 

Post#286 » by GONYK » Thu Jul 18, 2013 4:59 pm

R-DAWG wrote:
suicidedeuce wrote:
ORANGEandBLUE wrote:I understand. I'm just saying that from a pure bball standpoint, it was not only sensible, but a flat-out no-brainer. And hindsight is overwhelmingly on my side.


And this is the rub. When I evaluate the Glen Gruwald, I'm scruntinizing him with realistic expectations, I don't filter the criticism through my own fantasies.

I judge him on how he's doing the job he's been given to do, and not MY PERSONAL fantasy version of his job description.

The Chandler move was perfectly reasonable considering the ACTUAL circumstances.

To suggest Knicks would use the amnesy of Stat a couple of months after getting Melo is ridiculous from any pragmatic standpoint, not matter how much you want to defend it from a purely basketball perspective.


you do understand how the amnesty works, right? You didn't need to use the amnesty in 2011. It could have been used in 2012 or 2013 or whenever. As long as Amare was playing like a max player you had a chance to go deep in the playoffs and as soon as he broke down his contract would hold the team back. As good as Chandler was in 2011-2012, it left the team without any guards and extremely flawed. And the team will be flawed until Amare comes off the books.

Here we are, 2 years and 2 playoff disappointments later, wasting away the prime of Melo's career.


Taking a step back from a 54 win team also wastes his career
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Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?) 

Post#287 » by R-DAWG » Thu Jul 18, 2013 5:00 pm

GONYK wrote:
ORANGEandBLUE wrote:Yeah, I mean this notion that a GM who goes all in once, will always go all in, is pretty clearly refuted by what Ainge did this summer.


How so?

Ainge was forced to blow it up. Can't win now with KG and Pierce.


I thought Boston has had a great summer. There window closed and they liquidated their assets. They picked up 4 1st rd picks and the right to swap picks with Brooklyn in 2017. Wallace's contract is bad but if they are not going to contend for 2-3 years the picks are more valuable.

Boston did the same thing before the big 3 era, stockpiled the assets, tanked in 2007, put themselves in position to make big time moves.

I wish our organization would follow the plan that lead Boston to the 2008 Championship.
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Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?) 

Post#288 » by suicidedeuce » Thu Jul 18, 2013 5:01 pm

R-DAWG wrote:who said amnesty stat in 2011?


You're the second person to ask that. Read what you're responding to please.
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Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?) 

Post#289 » by GONYK » Thu Jul 18, 2013 5:02 pm

R-DAWG wrote:
GONYK wrote:
ORANGEandBLUE wrote:Yeah, I mean this notion that a GM who goes all in once, will always go all in, is pretty clearly refuted by what Ainge did this summer.


How so?

Ainge was forced to blow it up. Can't win now with KG and Pierce.


I thought Boston has had a great summer. There window closed and they liquidated their assets. They picked up 4 1st rd picks and the right to swap picks with Brooklyn in 2017. Wallace's contract is bad but if they are not going to contend for 2-3 years the picks are more valuable.

Boston did the same thing before the big 3 era, stockpiled the assets, tanked in 2007, put themselves in position to make big time moves.

I wish our organization would follow the plan that lead Boston to the 2008 Championship.


The Knicks are capable of doing the same once they feel their window has closed and their core is pushing 40
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Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?) 

Post#290 » by R-DAWG » Thu Jul 18, 2013 5:02 pm

GONYK wrote:
R-DAWG wrote:
suicidedeuce wrote:
And this is the rub. When I evaluate the Glen Gruwald, I'm scruntinizing him with realistic expectations, I don't filter the criticism through my own fantasies.

I judge him on how he's doing the job he's been given to do, and not MY PERSONAL fantasy version of his job description.

The Chandler move was perfectly reasonable considering the ACTUAL circumstances.

To suggest Knicks would use the amnesy of Stat a couple of months after getting Melo is ridiculous from any pragmatic standpoint, not matter how much you want to defend it from a purely basketball perspective.


you do understand how the amnesty works, right? You didn't need to use the amnesty in 2011. It could have been used in 2012 or 2013 or whenever. As long as Amare was playing like a max player you had a chance to go deep in the playoffs and as soon as he broke down his contract would hold the team back. As good as Chandler was in 2011-2012, it left the team without any guards and extremely flawed. And the team will be flawed until Amare comes off the books.

Here we are, 2 years and 2 playoff disappointments later, wasting away the prime of Melo's career.


Taking a step back from a 54 win team also wastes his career


The window has closed with Amare being the #2 scorer. Until he's off the books the team will not be a threat to win it all. So we can either sacrifice a year to put ourselves in better position to improve the following year or keep trying to tread water.

Do you understand the big picture?
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Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?) 

Post#291 » by R-DAWG » Thu Jul 18, 2013 5:04 pm

GONYK wrote:
R-DAWG wrote:
GONYK wrote:
How so?

Ainge was forced to blow it up. Can't win now with KG and Pierce.


I thought Boston has had a great summer. There window closed and they liquidated their assets. They picked up 4 1st rd picks and the right to swap picks with Brooklyn in 2017. Wallace's contract is bad but if they are not going to contend for 2-3 years the picks are more valuable.

Boston did the same thing before the big 3 era, stockpiled the assets, tanked in 2007, put themselves in position to make big time moves.

I wish our organization would follow the plan that lead Boston to the 2008 Championship.


The Knicks are capable of doing the same once they feel their window has closed and their core is pushing 40


The window closed when your highest paid player is on a 20 minute a night restriction and hasn't been able to stay healthy for the past 2 seasons. The window is closed and the Knicks are just adding fuel to the fire.
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Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?) 

Post#292 » by GONYK » Thu Jul 18, 2013 5:06 pm

R-DAWG wrote:
GONYK wrote:
R-DAWG wrote:
you do understand how the amnesty works, right? You didn't need to use the amnesty in 2011. It could have been used in 2012 or 2013 or whenever. As long as Amare was playing like a max player you had a chance to go deep in the playoffs and as soon as he broke down his contract would hold the team back. As good as Chandler was in 2011-2012, it left the team without any guards and extremely flawed. And the team will be flawed until Amare comes off the books.

Here we are, 2 years and 2 playoff disappointments later, wasting away the prime of Melo's career.


Taking a step back from a 54 win team also wastes his career


The window has closed with Amare being the #2 scorer. Until he's off the books the team will not be a threat to win it all. So we can either sacrifice a year to put ourselves in better position to improve the following year or keep trying to tread water.

Do you understand the big picture?


The big picture is, at the moment, 2015. The FO is not directionless. There seems to be a very deliberate plan.
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Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?) 

Post#293 » by Jazz(FU) » Thu Jul 18, 2013 5:07 pm

Lots of fires burning behind closed windows here....
LARRY: We need some defense.
ISIAH: Play with what you have.
LARRY: We need some defense.
ISIAH: You're fired.
DOLAN: You got one year.
ISIAH: We need some defense.
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Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?) 

Post#294 » by seren » Thu Jul 18, 2013 5:09 pm

GONYK wrote:The big picture is, at the moment, 2015. The FO is not directionless. There seems to be a very deliberate plan.


I am not too keen on deliberate plan. I applaud them for not taking contracts longer than 2015 yet, but were they given a chance to do so? We don't know that yet.
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Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?) 

Post#295 » by suicidedeuce » Thu Jul 18, 2013 5:10 pm

R-DAWG wrote:you do understand how the amnesty works, right? You didn't need to use the amnesty in 2011. It could have been used in 2012 or 2013 or whenever. As long as Amare was playing like a max player you had a chance to go deep in the playoffs and as soon as he broke down his contract would hold the team back. As good as Chandler was in 2011-2012, it left the team without any guards and extremely flawed. And the team will be flawed until Amare comes off the books.

Here we are, 2 years and 2 playoff disappointments later, wasting away the prime of Melo's career.


You want it both ways, R-Dawg.

Knicks would have been worse the last 2 years had the not acquired Chandler.

I can only post exactly what I mean so many times and have you respond to be completely ignoring it.

Knicks did NOT hedge their bests and hold back for an insurance policy. The went ALL-IN in year 1 of a 4 year window.

I think I agree with most of you on that.

I just can't criticize them for it. I can't acknowledge the virtue of knowingly advocating the Knicks passively play their hand, JUST IN CASE, especially when it's mostly based in hindsight.

I've had enough exhanges with you R-Dawg where its clear you just don't understand my position.

You always want one foot in two years from now, you seem to want every move to set up the next move. I again, just don't see that being realistic in the NBA.

Knicks went for it. I can respect that, while at the same recognize i may not work.

You seem incapable of distinguishing between them.
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Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?) 

Post#296 » by GONYK » Thu Jul 18, 2013 5:10 pm

seren wrote:
GONYK wrote:The big picture is, at the moment, 2015. The FO is not directionless. There seems to be a very deliberate plan.


I am not too keen on deliberate plan. I applaud them for not taking contracts longer than 2015 yet, but were they given a chance to do so? We don't know that yet.


True, but we do know they declined to keep at least 1 contract beyond that date, and it was worth a 1st round pick for them to do so.
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Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?) 

Post#297 » by R-DAWG » Thu Jul 18, 2013 5:12 pm

GONYK wrote:
R-DAWG wrote:
GONYK wrote:
Taking a step back from a 54 win team also wastes his career


The window has closed with Amare being the #2 scorer. Until he's off the books the team will not be a threat to win it all. So we can either sacrifice a year to put ourselves in better position to improve the following year or keep trying to tread water.

Do you understand the big picture?


The big picture is, at the moment, 2015. The FO is not directionless. There seems to be a very deliberate plan.


if the big picture is 2015 why give up a pick for Bargnani. Why sign JR Smith to a 3 year deal. Why not trade Chandler and stockpile assets. The front office isn't concerned about 2015. They care about getting headlines NOW at all costs.

What they should have done in 2011:
Used the full MLE to sign a player to a 2 year, $10m deal
Used the bi annual exception to sign a player to a 2 year, $4m deal
Looked to see what they could get for Billups and Turiafs's expiring, again only taking back player with 2 year deals

The fans would have been excited, the players excited. Sell the first training camp and full year of Amare and Melo together. The goal being that in 2013 to have a roster with only Melo, Shumpert, and the 2015 1st under contract and $30 million in cap space the year BEFORE Melo has the opt out.

I am sure this plan could have resulted in 1-2 in playoff series over the last 2 years.
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Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?) 

Post#298 » by suicidedeuce » Thu Jul 18, 2013 5:15 pm

R-DAWG wrote:The window has closed with Amare being the #2 scorer. Until he's off the books the team will not be a threat to win it all. So we can either sacrifice a year to put ourselves in better position to improve the following year or keep trying to tread water.

Do you understand the big picture?


Do you understand that is your OPINION?

Knicks aren't going to break it down coming off a 54 win, EC semis appearance, when they already have a built in break it down period in 2015.

NOTHING you are advocating today can't be done at the deadline or in 2014 if the 2013-2104 season PROVES the direction is going the wrong way.

Your FANTASY of it being broken down NOW is a FAN fantasy of which you're perfectly entitled to.

The irony is a a fan of this team you should recognize who and what they are and I'd advise accept that.

Knicks are NOT breaking it down now. They don't exist to do that.

These are both indisputable facts. That you don't seem to understand the latter is going go cause you nothing but frustration for years to come.
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Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?) 

Post#299 » by GONYK » Thu Jul 18, 2013 5:15 pm

R-DAWG wrote:
GONYK wrote:
R-DAWG wrote:
The window has closed with Amare being the #2 scorer. Until he's off the books the team will not be a threat to win it all. So we can either sacrifice a year to put ourselves in better position to improve the following year or keep trying to tread water.

Do you understand the big picture?


The big picture is, at the moment, 2015. The FO is not directionless. There seems to be a very deliberate plan.


if the big picture is 2015 why give up a pick for Bargnani. Why sign JR Smith to a 3 year deal. Why not trade Chandler and stockpile assets. The front office isn't concerned about 2015. They care about getting headlines NOW at all costs.

What they should have done in 2011:
Used the full MLE to sign a player to a 2 year, $10m deal
Used the bi annual exception to sign a player to a 2 year, $4m deal
Looked to see what they could get for Billups and Turiafs's expiring, again only taking back player with 2 year deals

The fans would have been excited, the players excited. Sell the first training camp and full year of Amare and Melo together. The goal being that in 2013 to have a roster with only Melo, Shumpert, and the 2015 1st under contract and $30 million in cap space the year BEFORE Melo has the opt out.

I am sure this plan could have resulted in 1-2 in playoff series over the last 2 years.


Because we feel like winning in the meantime. The Knicks don't share your opinion about your window.

It's not that hard.
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Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?) 

Post#300 » by R-DAWG » Thu Jul 18, 2013 5:16 pm

suicidedeuce wrote:
R-DAWG wrote:you do understand how the amnesty works, right? You didn't need to use the amnesty in 2011. It could have been used in 2012 or 2013 or whenever. As long as Amare was playing like a max player you had a chance to go deep in the playoffs and as soon as he broke down his contract would hold the team back. As good as Chandler was in 2011-2012, it left the team without any guards and extremely flawed. And the team will be flawed until Amare comes off the books.

Here we are, 2 years and 2 playoff disappointments later, wasting away the prime of Melo's career.


You want it both ways, R-Dawg.

Knicks would have been worse the last 2 years had the not acquired Chandler.

I can only post exactly what I mean so many times and have you respond to be completely ignoring it.

Knicks did NOT hedge their bests and hold back for an insurance policy. The went ALL-IN in year 1 of a 4 year window.

I think I agree with most of you on that.

I just can't criticize them for it. I can't acknowledge the virtue of knowingly advocating the Knicks passively play their hand, JUST IN CASE, especially when it's mostly based in hindsight.

I've had enough exhanges with you R-Dawg where its clear you just don't understand my position.

You always want one foot in two years from now, you seem to want every move to set up the next move. I again, just don't see that being realistic in the NBA.

Knicks went for it. I can respect that, while at the same recognize i may not work.

You seem incapable of distinguishing between them.


What 4 year window? A four year window to lose in the first round? I understand they went all it, it didn't work out. Yes, they might have not been as good the past 2 years without Chandler. BUT why don't you admit that:
A) the Knicks have flopped in the playoffs the past 2 years and failed to meet expectations
and
B) the Knicks would be in a much better position today if they could amnesty Amare
and
C) if you went all in and you haven't accomplished your goal why do you keep doubling down (ie trading draft picks and handing out long term contracts)

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