Acid Test for GOAT Top 10

[Joao Saraiva]

I guess great players win individual awards more often than the others.

[Jim Naismith]

I guess great players win individual awards more often than the others.

It's a little more subtle than your paraphrase implies.

Moses Malone has 3 MVPs and 1 FMVP, which makes 4 MVPs total, equaling Shaq and exceeding Hakeem and Kobe.

But Moses doesn't have 2 FMVPs, whereas Shaq, Hakeem and Kobe do.

The 1x MVP, 2x FMVP cutoff captures the bias in favor of ring-winning performance.

[Swimmer]

MVPs and FInals MVPs are determined by people who, although they watch a lot of basketball, have alternative agendas from identifying the best players (e.g. the best storyline) and often do little more analysis than what passes their eye tests/the consensus of their compatriots. I say we throw these criteria out altogether.

[Joao Saraiva]

I guess great players win individual awards more often than the others.

It's a little more subtle than your paraphrase implies.

Moses Malone has 3 MVPs and 1 FMVP, which makes 4 MVPs total, equaling Shaq and exceeding Hakeem and Kobe.

But Moses doesn't have 2 FMVPs, whereas Shaq, Hakeem and Kobe do.

The 1x MVP, 2x FMVP cutoff captures the bias in favor of ring-winning performance.

Well there's also a guy who won 1 MVP and 2 FMVPs that is out of that elite group, has mentioned in the thread before.

So if there is one outlier there, Moses might be the outlier the other way arround.

I can't really rank Moses, I've never seen him play... so I don't know if he's being underrated or something. If you have a group of the 3 time MVP players it will look really like only elite there, and only Moses will be out of the top 5.

[Jim Naismith]

Well there's also a guy who won 1 MVP and 2 FMVPs that is out of that elite group, has mentioned in the thread before.

So if there is one outlier there, Moses might be the outlier the other way arround.

I can't really rank Moses, I've never seen him play... so I don't know if he's being underrated or something. If you have a group of the 3 time MVP players it will look really like only elite there, and only Moses will be out of the top 5.

No one who fails the acid test is in the top 10 GOAT list of 2011. There is no "might be".

I'm using the acid test as a predictor of RealGM voting, not as "the one true way". In that regard, the test matches the voting very well.

[KyletheDingbat]

Should we double the criteria for top 3? Two MVP's four FMVP's?

[Jim Naismith]

Should we double the criteria for top 3? Two MVP's four FMVP's?

Well, this doesn't match the voting pattern which has Kareem (2x FMVP) in the top 3.

If we ranked by number of RS MVPs we get an imperfect approximation:

Kareem 6
Russell 5
Jordan 5
Wilt 4
LeBron 4
Magic 3
Bird 3
Duncan 2
Shaq 1
Hakeem 1
Kobe 1

If we rank by total MVPs (RS + Finals), we get another rough approximation:

Russell 12+
Jordan 11
Kareem 8
Wilt 6
Magic 6
LeBron 6
Bird 5
Duncan 5
Shaq 4
Hakeem 3
Kobe 3

In either case, the top 3 stays the same.

Note that LeBron might make it a top 4 if he gets one more RS MVP and one more FMVP.

[An Unbiased Fan]

How about anyone scoring a 5 or more when you combine MVP shares with Finals MVPs.

MJ - 16.138
Russell - 15.827(estimate where I gave him FMVP all 11 titles)
Kareem - 8.203
Magic - 8.129
Lebron - 8.100
Bird - 7.693
Shaq - 7.380
Duncan - 7.278
Wilt - 6.269
Kobe - 6.206
^
Obviously not perfect since Russell/Wilt only have estimates for FMVP, and MVP voting is suspect many years, but still, its a good general acid test. Mixing in All-NBA 1st teams, and Finals appearance could probably make it even better, but I don't have time for that at the moment.

Other notable greats:
Hakeem - 4.611
Mailman - 4.296
Moses - 3.873
West - 3.090
Durant - 3.005
Dirk - 2.810
KG - 2.753
Oscar - 2.479
Nash - 2.429
Wade - 1.793

[Jim Naismith]

How about anyone scoring a 5 or more when you combine MVP shares with Finals MVPs.

This is good, perhaps more accurate than my test.

I was looking for a test using numbers that fans can recall off the top of their heads.

Another difference I noticed is that your method gives Kobe a big edge over Hakeem. . .

[john248]

This is nice but falls under the who cares category. Nice job though.

[Joao Saraiva]

How about anyone scoring a 5 or more when you combine MVP shares with Finals MVPs.

MJ - 16.138
Russell - 15.827(estimate where I gave him FMVP all 11 titles)
Kareem - 8.203
Magic - 8.129
Lebron - 8.100
Bird - 7.693
Shaq - 7.380
Duncan - 7.278
Wilt - 6.269
Kobe - 6.206
^
Obviously not perfect since Russell/Wilt only have estimates for FMVP, and MVP voting is suspect many years, but still, its a good general acid test. Mixing in All-NBA 1st teams, and Finals appearance could probably make it even better, but I don't have time for that at the moment.

Other notable greats:
Hakeem - 4.611
Mailman - 4.296
Moses - 3.873
West - 3.090
Durant - 3.005
Dirk - 2.810
KG - 2.753
Oscar - 2.479
Nash - 2.429
Wade - 1.793

every list has flaws, obviously, but loved your criteria