The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread

[polo007]

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For years, as Rogers kept the Blue Jays payroll well below that of their American League rivals despite playing in one of the biggest markets in baseball, the criticism from many corners, including this one, was that ownership’s miserly attitude wasn’t just a poke in the eye to fans — it was also bad for business. There was plenty of evidence that if the Blue Jays could spend their way back into contention, they stood a very good chance of returning higher profits to the owners. There’s a stronger correlation between payroll and wins in baseball than there is in sports with a hard salary cap, and the most efficient dollars spent in terms of return on investment are those that push a team into playoff contention.

And lo, it came to pass, and in a manner that was surprising even to those who figured a winning team would be much more popular here.

This off-season, they have spent $55 million on Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce, which is mostly significant because it isn’t $200 million on Bautista and Encarnacion, otherwise known as the thing Blue Jays fans allowed themselves to dream about in quiet moments. There is certainly a case against signing either slugger to giant multi-year deals, but it remains to be seen what kind of a roster the Blue Jays would have without them. Morales and Pearce are the kind of veterans who could be valuable pieces to a contending team, but neither signals a wholesale commitment to remaining in contention.

The only big-dollar long-term contracts presently belong to Russell Martin and Troy Tulowitzki, so there is a potential scenario in which management waits to see how the team performs in the first half of 2017 before deciding whether a retrench is in order. Estrada, Happ and (gulp) Josh Donaldson would all net valuable prospects if management decides that the competitive window has closed.

The long game could even be the smart play, if the new guys see a need to restock the farm system as the organization’s most pressing need after the Anthopoulos fire sales. Chicago and Cleveland got to the World Series last year via a slow and steady build, as New York and Kansas City did a year before that. Cool rationality is the new market efficiency.

But then you look at the money the Blue Jays made by being good again and you think: why not always try to win now?

[Schad]

But then you look at the money the Blue Jays made by being good again and you think: why not always try to win now?

Uh, did you read the graf that you wrote immediately preceding this line? That's why.

[DreamTeam09]

But then you look at the money the Blue Jays made by being good again and you think: why not always try to win now?

Uh, did you read the graf that you wrote immediately preceding this line? That's why.

Didn`t all those teams spend money the year they actually won it. Chicago just signed a bunch of big name games, mets too.

[Schad]

But then you look at the money the Blue Jays made by being good again and you think: why not always try to win now?

Uh, did you read the graf that you wrote immediately preceding this line? That's why.

Didn`t all those teams spend money the year they actually won it. Chicago just signed a bunch of big name games, mets too.

They spent a bunch of money when they had deep collections of young talent in place. That's the winning formula in the modern game; the Cubs and Red Sox, despite their resources, made the conscious decision to step back and accumulate young players, because they recognized that without such, no amount of money will buy success.

[Kurtz]

Uh, did you read the graf that you wrote immediately preceding this line? That's why.

Didn`t all those teams spend money the year they actually won it. Chicago just signed a bunch of big name games, mets too.

They spent a bunch of money when they had deep collections of young talent in place. That's the winning formula in the modern game; the Cubs and Red Sox, despite their resources, made the conscious decision to step back and accumulate young players, because they recognized that without such, no amount of money will buy success.

Do we not have a solid base of young talent in place too, with Sanchez/Stroman/Osuna/Travis/Pillar?

[Schad]

Do we not have a solid base of young talent in place too, with Sanchez/Stroman/Osuna/Travis/Pillar?

Sure, but that quartet is outpaced by Boston's young talent, and there's very little behind them when they start to get more expensive, as they will beginning in 2018. Boston doesn't just have a giant pile of guys making peanuts and producing, they also have multiple top prospects in the high minors, and that's after swinging deals for Chris Sale and Drew Pomeranz. The Cubs similarly threw a tonne of resources at Aroldis Chapman, then moved Soler for Wade Davis this offseason, and still have a system with multiple top-end prospects, a bunch of near-ready AAA options (which made it easier to move Soler), and a tonne of depth.

Meanwhile, we have very little in the upper minors (only two of BA's top ten have played above A ball), and any trades we swing would take a major bite out of the system. We have no cover in the event of injury; if any of our starters go down, we're going to be reliant upon waiver wire pickups (Mike Bolsinger, most likely) to fill in the gaps.

Further, the Yankees are probably a year away from joining the party. They're loaded with young talent, and will shed a tonne of money and be big players in free agency next winter. We can't compete with our division mates now or in the near future by simply spending.

[DreamTeam09]

I'm confused how fans, seem to rationalize not spending money. Technically it's yours, as a fan, so why would any fan not wan't their team to spend money to make their team better. In baseball, payroll correlates with winning, and this team is owned by a billion dollar company coming off of back to back record breaking attendance/revenue spike and somehow ya'all wanna justify not spending because how our farm system is depleted lol, that makes little sense to me.

I'm not saying 250 million is needed or just cut blank checks to anyone, but there are 3 ways to acquire talent, you draft, trade, or sign them, if the 1st two avenues are exasperated, then why not sign players? This isn't hockey or basketball where the draft gives instant gratification, so it's not like sucking is how we are going to replenish our farm system, we would have to trade our good players for prospects, and then suck n suck some more, and then even if we do come back around filled with good young players, again what confidence do you have in this mgmt to retain or add on when the time is necessary again. We have no precedence of this

[Al_Oliver]

I'm confused how fans, seem to rationalize not spending money. Technically it's yours, as a fan, so why would any fan not wan't their team to spend money to make their team better. In baseball, payroll correlates with winning, and this team is owned by a billion dollar company coming off of back to back record breaking attendance/revenue spike and somehow ya'all wanna justify not spending because how our farm system is depleted lol, that makes little sense to me.

I'm not saying 250 million is needed or just cut blank checks to anyone, but there are 3 ways to acquire talent, you draft, trade, or sign them, if the 1st two avenues are exasperated, then why not sign players? This isn't hockey or basketball where the draft gives instant gratification, so it's not like sucking is how we are going to replenish our farm system, we would have to trade our good players for prospects, and then suck n suck some more, and then even if we do come back around filled with good young players, again what confidence do you have in this mgmt to retain or add on when the time is necessary again. We have no precedence of this

Spending smartly is always welcome, but adding older players to multi-year deals is often a fool's errand. Tulo and Martin are already reflecting this... You want to pay players the big dollars during some of their prime years if not before and during them.
I think short term deals to bridge the years until there is more cheap labour coming through the system is the way to go until they can have proper roster flexibility/construction

[DreamTeam09]

I'm confused how fans, seem to rationalize not spending money. Technically it's yours, as a fan, so why would any fan not wan't their team to spend money to make their team better. In baseball, payroll correlates with winning, and this team is owned by a billion dollar company coming off of back to back record breaking attendance/revenue spike and somehow ya'all wanna justify not spending because how our farm system is depleted lol, that makes little sense to me.

I'm not saying 250 million is needed or just cut blank checks to anyone, but there are 3 ways to acquire talent, you draft, trade, or sign them, if the 1st two avenues are exasperated, then why not sign players? This isn't hockey or basketball where the draft gives instant gratification, so it's not like sucking is how we are going to replenish our farm system, we would have to trade our good players for prospects, and then suck n suck some more, and then even if we do come back around filled with good young players, again what confidence do you have in this mgmt to retain or add on when the time is necessary again. We have no precedence of this

Spending smartly is always welcome, but adding older players to multi-year deals is often a fool's errand. Tulo and Martin are already reflecting this... You want to pay players the big dollars during some of their prime years if not before and during them.
I think short term deals to bridge the years until there is more cheap labour coming through the system is the way to go until they can have proper roster flexibility/construction

It's not like we are signing young studs. The player they targeted, Fowler, they still low balled him. Not to mention, how long is Tulo and Martin on the books for? another 2years no?

[phillipmike]

I'm confused how fans, seem to rationalize not spending money. Technically it's yours, as a fan, so why would any fan not wan't their team to spend money to make their team better. In baseball, payroll correlates with winning, and this team is owned by a billion dollar company coming off of back to back record breaking attendance/revenue spike and somehow ya'all wanna justify not spending because how our farm system is depleted lol, that makes little sense to me.

I'm not saying 250 million is needed or just cut blank checks to anyone, but there are 3 ways to acquire talent, you draft, trade, or sign them, if the 1st two avenues are exasperated, then why not sign players? This isn't hockey or basketball where the draft gives instant gratification, so it's not like sucking is how we are going to replenish our farm system, we would have to trade our good players for prospects, and then suck n suck some more, and then even if we do come back around filled with good young players, again what confidence do you have in this mgmt to retain or add on when the time is necessary again. We have no precedence of this

Because the smart ones know that spending money doesnt not equal success and the risk a long term deal could be big.

The ones that have been watching baseball know that if they tie up money in old aging players then they have bad contracts that might result in a bad team that cannot be moved which forces a team to rebuild thus killing the fans enjoyment of watching a competitive team (Vernon Wells, BJ Ryan, AJ Burnett etc.)

Smart fans know that spending money wisely is key. So i dont think fans are against spending money rather spending wisely and i think the current FO recognizes that as they have no problem spending money for short term deals but those long term deals could be killers.

[Al_Oliver]

I'm confused how fans, seem to rationalize not spending money. Technically it's yours, as a fan, so why would any fan not wan't their team to spend money to make their team better. In baseball, payroll correlates with winning, and this team is owned by a billion dollar company coming off of back to back record breaking attendance/revenue spike and somehow ya'all wanna justify not spending because how our farm system is depleted lol, that makes little sense to me.

I'm not saying 250 million is needed or just cut blank checks to anyone, but there are 3 ways to acquire talent, you draft, trade, or sign them, if the 1st two avenues are exasperated, then why not sign players? This isn't hockey or basketball where the draft gives instant gratification, so it's not like sucking is how we are going to replenish our farm system, we would have to trade our good players for prospects, and then suck n suck some more, and then even if we do come back around filled with good young players, again what confidence do you have in this mgmt to retain or add on when the time is necessary again. We have no precedence of this

Spending smartly is always welcome, but adding older players to multi-year deals is often a fool's errand. Tulo and Martin are already reflecting this... You want to pay players the big dollars during some of their prime years if not before and during them.
I think short term deals to bridge the years until there is more cheap labour coming through the system is the way to go until they can have proper roster flexibility/construction

It's not like we are signing young studs. The player they targeted, Fowler, they still low balled him. Not to mention, how long is Tulo and Martin on the books for? another 2years no?

Tulo is on the books through 2021... ugh

[Schad]

It's not like we are signing young studs. The player they targeted, Fowler, they still low balled him. Not to mention, how long is Tulo and Martin on the books for? another 2years no?

There are no young studs to sign. Young players very rarely hit free agency...it's generally guys who are already entering the decline phase. That's just the nature of the contract structure in baseball, where it's a minimum of six (generally seven with the first being partial) seasons after a player's debut before they are eligible for free agency. Thus, even if a guy debuts at 21 and sticks (which isn't terribly common) and doesn't sign any sort of extension, you're still looking at a couple years of peak and several post-peak. More commonly, as with Fowler, you're getting five years of a player's 30s, which isn't a great bet.

[The_Hater]

I'm confused how fans, seem to rationalize not spending money. Technically it's yours, as a fan, so why would any fan not wan't their team to spend money to make their team better. In baseball, payroll correlates with winning, and this team is owned by a billion dollar company coming off of back to back record breaking attendance/revenue spike and somehow ya'all wanna justify not spending because how our farm system is depleted lol, that makes little sense to me.

I'm not saying 250 million is needed or just cut blank checks to anyone, but there are 3 ways to acquire talent, you draft, trade, or sign them, if the 1st two avenues are exasperated, then why not sign players? This isn't hockey or basketball where the draft gives instant gratification, so it's not like sucking is how we are going to replenish our farm system, we would have to trade our good players for prospects, and then suck n suck some more, and then even if we do come back around filled with good young players, again what confidence do you have in this mgmt to retain or add on when the time is necessary again. We have no precedence of this

Spending smartly is always welcome, but adding older players to multi-year deals is often a fool's errand. Tulo and Martin are already reflecting this... You want to pay players the big dollars during some of their prime years if not before and during them.
I think short term deals to bridge the years until there is more cheap labour coming through the system is the way to go until they can have proper roster flexibility/construction

It's not like we are signing young studs. The player they targeted, Fowler, they still low balled him. Not to mention, how long is Tulo and Martin on the books for? another 2years no?

A: They never lowballed Fowler. They actually made him a very good opening offer.
B: Fowler is going to be 36 when his contract is done. For a guy who relies so much on speed, that's almost certainly going to really bad contract in the back end. Think Carl Crawford.

[sharmaraps]

Shatkins want to start a new era of blue jays baseball. I think they have 0 interest in trying to win a world series with a roster that has been mostly constructed by the AA era. They aren't dumb enough to trade our pitching away because they know how tough getting good pitching can be but offensively they already have EE and Joey out the door. I guess as Jays fans we will have to wait a couple years to see the playoffs again.

[The_Hater]

Shatkins want to start a new era of blue jays baseball. I think they have 0 interest in trying to win a world series with a roster that has been mostly constructed by the AA era. They aren't dumb enough to trade our pitching away because they know how tough getting good pitching can be but offensively they already have EE and Joey out the door. I guess as Jays fans we will have to wait a couple years to see the playoffs again.

What in the world are your talking about?

[cram]

Anyone betting on a fire sale this summer?

[sharmaraps]

Shatkins want to start a new era of blue jays baseball. I think they have 0 interest in trying to win a world series with a roster that has been mostly constructed by the AA era. They aren't dumb enough to trade our pitching away because they know how tough getting good pitching can be but offensively they already have EE and Joey out the door. I guess as Jays fans we will have to wait a couple years to see the playoffs again.

What in the world are your talking about?

What I'm saying is that Shapiro and Atkins (Shatkins) want to build these Jays with their own players. They don't want anything to do with players that AA brought in.

[Schad]

What I'm saying is that Shapiro and Atkins (Shatkins) want to build these Jays with their own players. They don't want anything to do with players that AA brought in.

They re-signed Estrada last offseason. Has nothing to do with AA's players, beyond the fact that AA's players were really old and would have cost a tonne to retain.

[sule]

This team needs a strong farm. But they are a few years away from having more good players come up. In the meantime, instead of having down years with players who make the fanbase groan, it's better to just sign our guys to a few more years and let them play it out in the meantime. Their presence will keep the fanbase interested until the farm is ready to step in, then you let them go and hopefully have the kids ready to step in while bringing the budget down.

So what if the last year or two of those deals are bad value. The money will come in the meantime from the fan support, and will give time for the team to acquire prospects. In their last year, they could try to offload Bautista and Edwin to contending teams for b-prospects and bring up the young kids when the fans are ready to move on.

I understand what this front office wants to do, but I don't think they'll get a different result over the next year or two with the guys they are trying to acquire versus the guys they could've just brought back.

Not to mention, guys like Donaldson might be looking at how crappy this front office is treating its own free agents and may look to move on if they think they'll get the same treatment when it's their time.

What they are doing now seems to be alienating a large portion of the fanbase, and I don't think that's worth having 41 or 42 picks in the upcoming draft versus the 40 they are slotted to have.

[Schad]

This team needs a strong farm. But they are a few years away from having more good players come up. In the meantime, instead of having down years with players who make the fanbase groan, it's better to just sign our guys to a few more years and let them play it out in the meantime. Their presence will keep the fanbase interested until the farm is ready to step in, then you let them go and hopefully have the kids ready to step in while bringing the budget down.

So what if the last year or two of those deals are bad value. The money will come in the meantime from the fan support, and will give time for the team to acquire prospects. In their last year, they could try to offload Bautista and Edwin to contending teams for b-prospects and bring up the young kids when the fans are ready to move on.

I understand what this front office wants to do, but I don't think they'll get a different result over the next year or two with the guys they are trying to acquire versus the guys they could've just brought back.

Not to mention, guys like Donaldson might be looking at how crappy this front office is treating its own free agents and may look to move on if they think they'll get the same treatment when it's their time.

What they are doing now seems to be alienating a large portion of the fanbase, and I don't think that's worth having 41 or 42 picks in the upcoming draft versus the 40 they are slotted to have.

All of this presumes that we'd actually remain contenders if we re-signed Bautista and Encarnacion. That's far from a guarantee...Bautista had already seen his production fall off a cliff, taking his ability to play a competent right field with it. Any multi-year deal has the potential to be bad from year one. And if that happened, the fanbase would cease to be interested straightaway.

As for Donaldson, he's gone, period. He's going to get more than $30m a year through the end of his thirties. Has nothing to do with the treatment of our current FAs...he's simply going to get offered a deal that would be wholly irrational to match.

So, we could have spent $180m+ this season to bring back the team that scraped a Wild Card spot on the final day of the year despite near-perfect pitcher health, with the knowledge that the players re-signed would be damned near untradable if their production fell off, and we'd then be faced with throwing even more money at an ancient core a year later to keep the pitching staff intact...or we could not do that. We chose the more rational option.