The Shapiro & Rogers Megathread

[The_Hater]

Schad is wearing a Red Sox hat and jersey right now.

Why, because he is telling you the truth that you don't wanna hear?

There's a reason they play the games. Don't assume Boston is a lock to win the AL.

If we packed up our toys and went home every time another team fielded a theoretically great team, then we'd never ever go for it in anything but "down years" for Boston and NY.

Of course they still play the games. The point he was trying to make is the Red Sox already have a huge lead on everyone on paper.

I'll never understand why people are offended by someone pointing out the obvious?

[Schad]

Schad is wearing a Red Sox hat and jersey right now.

Why, because he is telling you the truth that you don't wanna hear?

There's a reason they play the games. Don't assume Boston is a lock to win the AL.

If we packed up our toys and went home every time another team fielded a theoretically great team, then we'd never ever go for it in anything but "down years" for Boston and NY.

No one has suggested packing up and going home this year. Rather, they are suggesting that we should not throw all of our resources at trying to chase them down. We're still the best-positioned team if Boston screws up. We're still in decent shape for the Wild Card, if things go well. But getting ourselves pot-committed to an outside shot at the division and decent shot at the Wild Card isn't wise, particularly when we're going to lose two of our starters.

It's easy to say that we should spend $180m this year, and then another big payroll hike next offseason to retain/replace Estrada and Liriano, then another massive payroll hike to keep Donaldson and Happ/Happ's replacement in the fold...but it simply is never going to happen. A substantial bump in payroll looks something like what we're seeing this offseason: maybe $160m or thereabouts, and only in good times. Rogers is never going to spend $220m+ on payroll no matter how much we kick our feet. As individuals who want to build a team that actually wins in the future, rather than one that we can feel righteous about when Rogers fails us, Shapiro and Atkins are working within the confines of reality. That means that sometimes you don't scream damn the torpedoes and give it full engines straight ahead.

[Al_Oliver]

Schad is wearing a Red Sox hat and jersey right now.

Why, because he is telling you the truth that you don't wanna hear?

There's a reason they play the games. Don't assume Boston is a lock to win the AL.

If we packed up our toys and went home every time another team fielded a theoretically great team, then we'd never ever go for it in anything but "down years" for Boston and NY.

I am looking at it realistically. They have tonnes of assets and we do not.
The Jays have a lot of work to do to get back to where they finished the season. Meanwhile Boston and Cleveland (even on pitching health alone) have both improved

[cram]

Why, because he is telling you the truth that you don't wanna hear?

There's a reason they play the games. Don't assume Boston is a lock to win the AL.

If we packed up our toys and went home every time another team fielded a theoretically great team, then we'd never ever go for it in anything but "down years" for Boston and NY.

Of course they still play the games. The point he was trying to make is the Red Sox already have a huge lead on everyone on paper.

I'll never understand why people are offended by someone pointing out the obvious?

Who's offended? I was poking fun at him for (seemingly) being so in love with the Red Sox.

[cram]

Why, because he is telling you the truth that you don't wanna hear?

There's a reason they play the games. Don't assume Boston is a lock to win the AL.

If we packed up our toys and went home every time another team fielded a theoretically great team, then we'd never ever go for it in anything but "down years" for Boston and NY.

No one has suggested packing up and going home this year. Rather, they are suggesting that we should not throw all of our resources at trying to chase them down. We're still the best-positioned team if Boston screws up. We're still in decent shape for the Wild Card, if things go well. But getting ourselves pot-committed to an outside shot at the division and decent shot at the Wild Card isn't wise, particularly when we're going to lose two of our starters.

It's easy to say that we should spend $180m this year, and then another big payroll hike next offseason to retain/replace Estrada and Liriano, then another massive payroll hike to keep Donaldson and Happ/Happ's replacement in the fold...but it simply is never going to happen. A substantial bump in payroll looks something like what we're seeing this offseason: maybe $160m or thereabouts, and only in good times. Rogers is never going to spend $220m+ on payroll no matter how much we kick our feet. As individuals who want to build a team that actually wins in the future, rather than one that we can feel righteous about when Rogers fails us, Shapiro and Atkins are working within the confines of reality. That means that sometimes you don't scream damn the torpedoes and give it full engines straight ahead.

All good/great points.....just keep in mind that the "reality" is dynamic and Toronto can go from biggish market to mediocre market really quickly.

[Schad]

All good/great points.....just keep in mind that the "reality" is dynamic and Toronto can go from biggish market to mediocre market really quickly.

And vice versa. It's going to happen at some point in the near future barring an absolute miracle, given our team age and dearth of minor league talent. The key, IMO, is to minimize the amount of time that we're down again. If we ladle on a bunch more long-term salary, we're in a massive bind when the team hits the wall; Rogers won't want to spend contention-level money on a non-contending team, but we'll be sitting on difficult-to-move contracts attached to fading stars. Unlike the Yankees, who have been able to idle a shade above .500 and well above $200m while slowly turning the roster over and adding youth, we might have to make decisions that could extend our time at the bottom...cutting development and scouting resources, moving younger players as they approach free agency rather than making a push during their arb years to extend them out of fear that we'll end up with another Ricky Romero situation, etc. Or conversely, making short-sighted moves in the hopes of elevating team performance back to profitable levels at the cost of long-term aims. Those are the things that ultimately end up perpetuating mediocrity.

Luckily, tanking isn't really necessary in baseball; extremely high draft picks help, but it's in no small part a numbers game when it comes to prospects, and the trade market in baseball is much more profitable than in the NBA, because there's such a deep minor league system and large major league roster. We can trade off players in July and start (within reason) adding again in December; hell, the Yankees acquired one of the better prospects in baseball for the final few months of Chapman's deal, and then re-signed Chapman. Use the money saved to lock down some of the younger players long-term, as Cleveland did a few years ago. You just can't go free agent ex machina anymore; the costs are too high, and the returns diminish too quickly.

[Duffman100]

At this point, I'm very concerned for this season coming up. Our rotation is great, but our hitting is going to be vastly inferior to last year.

If we do nothing, or close to nothing, for the rest of free agency? When do we decide to blow it up?

[phillipmike]

yeah for a one year shot. Now it's break up time after this year it'll be a whole different team. Playoffs 2020 hopefully

Again do you even know what you are talking about? You are just making things up. So far the Jays have only lost Dickey and Cecil... But you are speaking in absolutes that Bautista, EE and Saunders are gone because the new FO has an agenda to get rid of them. Jays made Bautista at least 1 offer and EE at least 4 offers - doesnt sound like guys you want to get rid of.

But you can continue coming up with your conspiracy theories to stir pot as you try to trick everyone into thinking you are a "fan."

[phillipmike]

At this point, I'm very concerned for this season coming up. Our rotation is great, but our hitting is going to be vastly inferior to last year.

If we do nothing, or close to nothing, for the rest of free agency? When do we decide to blow it up?

The team has 26M to 30M left to spend and it is December, why would they do nothing?

The team on December 22, 2016 isnt going to be the same on Opening Day. There will be many additions.

[The_Hater]

At this point, I'm very concerned for this season coming up. Our rotation is great, but our hitting is going to be vastly inferior to last year.

If we do nothing, or close to nothing, for the rest of free agency? When do we decide to blow it up?

The team has 26M to 30M left to spend and it is December, why would they do nothing?

The team on December 22, 2016 isnt going to be the same on Opening Day. There will be many additions.

But panicking over an incomplete roster is a winter tradition...

[Duffman100]

At this point, I'm very concerned for this season coming up. Our rotation is great, but our hitting is going to be vastly inferior to last year.

If we do nothing, or close to nothing, for the rest of free agency? When do we decide to blow it up?

The team has 26M to 30M left to spend and it is December, why would they do nothing?

The team on December 22, 2016 isnt going to be the same on Opening Day. There will be many additions.

But panicking over an incomplete roster is a winter tradition...

It's not panicking. It's looking at who's left on the market, our needs, how much money we have and our competition. Our hitting is not going to be good enough next year.

[The_Hater]

The team has 26M to 30M left to spend and it is December, why would they do nothing?

The team on December 22, 2016 isnt going to be the same on Opening Day. There will be many additions.

But panicking over an incomplete roster is a winter tradition...

It's not panicking. It's looking at who's left on the market, our needs, how much money we have and our competition. Our hitting is not going to be good enough next year.

So you're not panicking, yet you are.

[Duffman100]

But panicking over an incomplete roster is a winter tradition...

It's not panicking. It's looking at who's left on the market, our needs, how much money we have and our competition. Our hitting is not going to be good enough next year.

So you're not panicking, yet you are.

Panic is a strong word. I'm concerned. And pretty sure we're going to lose the division and struggle to keep up in the wild card.

I just think our window is done. We tried, good in us. But we didn't make it.

[Skin Blues]

But panicking over an incomplete roster is a winter tradition...

It's not panicking. It's looking at who's left on the market, our needs, how much money we have and our competition. Our hitting is not going to be good enough next year.

So you're not panicking, yet you are.

Yeah, "I have no idea who will we sign with he remaining $23M in our budget, but I know that our hitting won't be good enough." LOL.

If I was a betting man, I'd put money on the fact that we'll score more runs than last year. Pearce/Morales is not much worse than Edwin/Bautista, and I'm sure we'll have somebody decent to replace Saunders, whether it's Saunders or Bautista themselves, Pagan, Moss... lots of options left and lots of money to spend. Thankfully the bats are cheap this offseason and the arms are expensive as hell, and we really don't need any arms aside from filler pieces in the bullpen (though I'd have liked to have added Jansen).

[The_Hater]

It's not panicking. It's looking at who's left on the market, our needs, how much money we have and our competition. Our hitting is not going to be good enough next year.

So you're not panicking, yet you are.

Yeah, "I have no idea who will we sign with he remaining $23M in our budget, but I know that our hitting won't be good enough." LOL.

If I was a betting man, I'd put money on the fact that we'll score more runs than last year. Pearce/Morales is not much worse than Edwin/Bautista, and I'm sure we'll have somebody decent to replace Saunders, whether it's Saunders or Bautista themselves, Pagan, Moss... lots of options left and lots of money to spend. Thankfully the bats are cheap this offseason and the arms are expensive as hell, and we really don't need any arms aside from filler pieces in the bullpen (though I'd have liked to have added Jansen).

Our hitting with RISP was terrible last year too. That will improve.

I wouldn't bet on us scoring more runs but I could definitely see around the same. It should be a top half offense once the roster is complete. I'm more worried that our SP will regress

[Santoki]

All I will say is that at this time last year we thought we'd have the best offense in the AL and one of the weaker rotations. In the end, it was a complete reversal of fortune.

So, who the hell knows anymore. I'm not super high on our rotation to repeat their performance and I'm not overly concerned that the offense is going to be terrible yet. Things change so much during a season. There are always holes to fill no matter what. At this point, it's anybody's guess how this roster will shape up.

I will say I feel about the same as I did last season at this point. Cautiously optimistic that we have a legitimate shot at the Wildcard again.

[Duffman100]

It's not panicking. It's looking at who's left on the market, our needs, how much money we have and our competition. Our hitting is not going to be good enough next year.

So you're not panicking, yet you are.

Yeah, "I have no idea who will we sign with he remaining $23M in our budget, but I know that our hitting won't be good enough." LOL.

Okay,

Considering we still need decent bullpen arms. Construct an offensive roster, with the remaining players on the market (with realism) that would give us legitimate chance for next season.

[The_Hater]

So you're not panicking, yet you are.

Yeah, "I have no idea who will we sign with he remaining $23M in our budget, but I know that our hitting won't be good enough." LOL.

Okay,

Considering we still need decent bullpen arms. Construct an offensive roster, with the remaining players on the market (with realism) that would give us legitimate chance for next season.

I know Skin is being sarcastic but this is no different than the panic people had last year with our pitching. 'Without Price our starting pitching is going isn't going to be good enough'. Gotta let things play out. Teams have effectively replaced a stud pitcher or a stud hitter before.

[Duffman100]

Yeah, "I have no idea who will we sign with he remaining $23M in our budget, but I know that our hitting won't be good enough." LOL.

Okay,

Considering we still need decent bullpen arms. Construct an offensive roster, with the remaining players on the market (with realism) that would give us legitimate chance for next season.

I know Skin is being sarcastic but this is no different than the panic people had last year with our pitching. 'Without Price our starting pitching is going isn't going to be good enough'. Gotta let things play out. Teams have effectively replaced a stud pitcher or a stud hitter before.

Sure, but we're losing the core of our lineup. Edwin, Jose (though he had a crappy year).

Right now, our line up includes both Travis and Pearce who both can't stay healthy. Tulo (always health concerns), Martin who had a **** year. Pillar and BJ Upton who are both free swinging strikeout machines. So that means Donaldson and Morales are going to have to carry the team.

It's not panicking, the lineup doesn't look good. Someone like Fowler would have helped offset that a bit, but as of right now, I think it's a legitimate concern.

[The_Hater]

Okay,

Considering we still need decent bullpen arms. Construct an offensive roster, with the remaining players on the market (with realism) that would give us legitimate chance for next season.

I know Skin is being sarcastic but this is no different than the panic people had last year with our pitching. 'Without Price our starting pitching is going isn't going to be good enough'. Gotta let things play out. Teams have effectively replaced a stud pitcher or a stud hitter before.

Sure, but we're losing the core of our lineup. Edwin, Jose (though he had a crappy year).

Right now, our line up includes both Travis and Pearce who both can't stay healthy. Tulo (always health concerns), Martin who had a **** year. Pillar and BJ Upton who are both free swinging strikeout machines. So that means Donaldson and Morales are going to have to carry the team.

It's not panicking, the lineup doesn't look good. Someone like Fowler would have helped offset that a bit, but as of right now, I think it's a legitimate concern.

We're losing Edwin. We're already replaced Jose's bat with Morales and Pearce is a huge upgrade on the Colabello/Smoak/Carrera and anyone else that was sucking up AB's as the 9th starting player. Then you assume that backup catcher will be better and hope that Tulo and Martin give you a full year of competent AB's. Find an .800 OPS starting corner OF and a decent LHB to platoon with Upton the offense could easily be better than last season even if that seems hard to believe right now.

Plus replacing Jose and Saunders with two competent defensive players can't be understated as well. They were both awful.