2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2

[ChiCityHoops34]

Roberson is the worst player in the league and he STARTS.

Not even remotely close to being true. Roberson is good, just not good on offense. He's a fringe starter, but far from worst player in the league.

Not good on offense isn't even close to accurately describing it. He is the worst offensive player in the league, name someone worse. He's a good defender, not great. He is 30th in defensive win shares, you don't win with an incredibly bad small forward who rates decent on the other end starting for your team. Westbrook is surrounded by trash.

[bmurph128]

If they got the 1 seed they'd likely still have a worse record that Houston and San Antonio.

Houston?

I don't think much of IT's MVP chances, and I really doubt that Boston surpasses the Cavs for the number 1 seed - but I can virtually guarantee you that the Cavs will finish with a better record than the Rockets.

They don't have a better record right now, and the Rockets have a better SRS and Net rating by about 2 points each. The Rockets have had a tougher schedule as well, playing 4 more games than the Cavs and plenty more road games.
FiveThirtyEight has then at 56 a piece

True, but the Raptors at one point could have said the same thing with regardes to SRS. Despite what the stats tell us, I hope people don't really think the Rockets are a better team; I think over time that will show and the Rockets will finish a few games worse than the Cavs

[K_chile22]

Houston?

I don't think much of IT's MVP chances, and I really doubt that Boston surpasses the Cavs for the number 1 seed - but I can virtually guarantee you that the Cavs will finish with a better record than the Rockets.

They don't have a better record right now, and the Rockets have a better SRS and Net rating by about 2 points each. The Rockets have had a tougher schedule as well, playing 4 more games than the Cavs and plenty more road games.
FiveThirtyEight has then at 56 a piece

True, but the Raptors at one point could have said the same thing with regardes to SRS. Despite what the stats tell us, I hope people don't really think the Rockets are a better team; I think over time that will show and the Rockets will finish a few games worse than the Cavs

There's a difference between better team and better record. SRS and Net rating suggest the Rockets are likely to have the better record

[ken6199]

Yes, the SRS is telling. Back in 13-14 season, Lebron's Miami team is 54W on 4.15 SRS, and in West?

SAS, 62-20, 8.0
OKC, 59-23, 6.66
LAC, 57-25, 7.27
HOU, 54-28, 5.06
POR, 54-28, 4.44
GSW, 51-31, 5.15

You cannot say Miami is the 2nd best team in the East they are surely better than GSW. Best team in East? IND, 56-26, 3.63. The one sided finals clearly proved that.

3rd best East team that year, your Atlantic division champion TOR, 48-34, 2.55.
PHX who couldn't make the playoffs that year, 48-34, 3.02. TOR better than PHX?

[K_chile22]

Roberson is the worst player in the league and he STARTS.

Not even remotely close to being true. Roberson is good, just not good on offense. He's a fringe starter, but far from worst player in the league.

Not good on offense isn't even close to accurately describing it. He is the worst offensive player in the league, name someone worse. He's a good defender, not great. He is 30th in defensive win shares, you don't win with an incredibly bad small forward who rates decent on the other end starting for your team. Westbrook is surrounded by trash.

He is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. Any team would be happy to have him. Steven Adams is good. Oladipo has been better than I thought. Kanter is a good sixth man. The roster isn't great but it's far from trash.

[Shock Defeat]

Not even remotely close to being true. Roberson is good, just not good on offense. He's a fringe starter, but far from worst player in the league.

Not good on offense isn't even close to accurately describing it. He is the worst offensive player in the league, name someone worse. He's a good defender, not great. He is 30th in defensive win shares, you don't win with an incredibly bad small forward who rates decent on the other end starting for your team. Westbrook is surrounded by trash.

He is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. Any team would be happy to have him. Steven Adams is good. Oladipo has been better than I thought. Kanter is a good sixth man. The roster isn't great but it's far from trash.

He's a great defender but let's be honest, this guy's offensive skill level is worse than most college players. He's a net liability IMO, the Rockets wouldn't even play him if he were on our team.

[K_chile22]

Not good on offense isn't even close to accurately describing it. He is the worst offensive player in the league, name someone worse. He's a good defender, not great. He is 30th in defensive win shares, you don't win with an incredibly bad small forward who rates decent on the other end starting for your team. Westbrook is surrounded by trash.

He is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. Any team would be happy to have him. Steven Adams is good. Oladipo has been better than I thought. Kanter is a good sixth man. The roster isn't great but it's far from trash.

He's a great defender but let's be honest, this guy's offensive skill level is worse than most college players. He's a net liability IMO, the Rockets wouldn't even play him if he were on our team.

He's got a positive RPM, and a +7 on/off. He has a negative BPM because alot of what he does isn't in the box score, he doesn't score well, or get assists. Watch what he's done to Harden when the two teams play. He's done as good a job on him as anyone.

[Edrees]

If they got the 1 seed they'd likely still have a worse record that Houston and San Antonio.

Houston?

I don't think much of IT's MVP chances, and I really doubt that Boston surpasses the Cavs for the number 1 seed - but I can virtually guarantee you that the Cavs will finish with a better record than the Rockets.

They don't have a better record right now, and the Rockets have a better SRS and Net rating by about 2 points each. The Rockets have had a tougher schedule as well, playing 4 more games than the Cavs and plenty more road games.
FiveThirtyEight has then at 56 a piece

If Rockets were in the east, Harden would have already solidified the MVP because they'd be running away with the 1st seed.

I don't think the Rockets are better than the Cavs, but I think the Rockets would win a lot more regular season games than the cavs if they were in the east.

[K_chile22]

Houston?

I don't think much of IT's MVP chances, and I really doubt that Boston surpasses the Cavs for the number 1 seed - but I can virtually guarantee you that the Cavs will finish with a better record than the Rockets.

They don't have a better record right now, and the Rockets have a better SRS and Net rating by about 2 points each. The Rockets have had a tougher schedule as well, playing 4 more games than the Cavs and plenty more road games.
FiveThirtyEight has then at 56 a piece

If Rockets were in the east, Harden would have already solidified the MVP because they'd be running away with the 1st seed.

I don't think the Rockets are better than the Cavs, but I think the Rockets would win a lot more regular season games than the cavs if they were in the east.

Meh, idk how many more wins that's really worth. The only real plus would be not playing GS and SA 4 times a piece. Rockets still have a chance to split both of those season series though.

[Triples333]

Wow, all three of the Warriors are now ahead of Lebron/Westbrook/Kawhi/Harden in RPM, with Draymond leading all eligible players (CP3 would be #1).

[PeptoKlepto]

Wow, all three of the Warriors are now ahead of Lebron/Westbrook/Kawhi/Harden in RPM, with Draymond leading all eligible players (CP3 would be #1).

Steph's #1 in net rating and #2 overall in on/off +/- (out of the candidates) as well.

[K_chile22]

Wow, all three of the Warriors are now ahead of Lebron/Westbrook/Kawhi/Harden in RPM, with Draymond leading all eligible players (CP3 would be #1).

Which is kinda an example of a reason a Warrior won't win MVP.

[Triples333]

Wow, all three of the Warriors are now ahead of Lebron/Westbrook/Kawhi/Harden in RPM, with Draymond leading all eligible players (CP3 would be #1).

Which is kinda an example of a reason a Warrior won't win MVP.

Maybe they should share a 3 way MVP. Idk.

[inDe_eD]

Wow, all three of the Warriors are now ahead of Lebron/Westbrook/Kawhi/Harden in RPM, with Draymond leading all eligible players (CP3 would be #1).

Which is kinda an example of a reason a Warrior won't win MVP.

This.


To realistically predict the MVP, you kind of have to apply some filters to whittle down this year's contenders:

Narrative/vote-splitting: A Warrior won't be winning MVP. You'll have 3 guys splitting the vote and have to overcome the bad guy/superteam narrative.

Team Success: Westbrook, amazing as he has been, is on pace to win 45 games. Eerily similar to Kobe’s 35 PPG season. It’s unfair to him, but his team just isn’t good enough for him to get a significant number of 1st and 2nd place votes.

Games missed: Chris Paul has been possibly the most impactful guy in the league this year, but he’s missed 19 games, and will probably miss another 10 at the least. I think we can rule him out.

That leaves you with 3 realistic MVP candidates (In order): Harden, Kawhi, and Lebron (with IT on the outside looking in).

My prediction:

Harden is the favorite, and should be. If he keeps doing his thing and the Rockets win 55+ games, I just don’t see anyone else winning MVP. Kawhi would need a dominant win against the Rockets on March 6th to take the season series, and then the Spurs would need to finish 6-7 games ahead of the Rockets for Kawhi to realistically win this. I think Lebron has a chance to steal this one from Harden/Kawhi, but only if he becomes superman with Love out and the Cavs finish the season with close to 60 wins. IT would need all of the three guys ahead of him to stumble, and keep up his ridiculous January scoring averages for the rest of the year, while finishing with the 2nd best record in the league.

Honorable mention to John Wall, he's been awesome, but I just don't think they'll finish higher than 3rd in the east.

[PeptoKlepto]

Wow, all three of the Warriors are now ahead of Lebron/Westbrook/Kawhi/Harden in RPM, with Draymond leading all eligible players (CP3 would be #1).

Which is kinda an example of a reason a Warrior won't win MVP.

So an MVP can't be on a lower seed, but shouldn't be on too good of a team, either? I'm loving this arbitrary threshold that seems to change based on agenda.

[K_chile22]

Wow, all three of the Warriors are now ahead of Lebron/Westbrook/Kawhi/Harden in RPM, with Draymond leading all eligible players (CP3 would be #1).

Which is kinda an example of a reason a Warrior won't win MVP.

So an MVP can't be on a lower seed, but shouldn't be on too good of a team, either? I'm loving this arbitrary threshold that seems to change based on agenda.

KD and Steph are going to steal MVP votes from each other. It's math. Almost no one is going to put guys from the same team one and two on their ballots. Neither will win.
KD's MVP season came when Russ missed a huge chunk of season for that same reason.

[mademan]

Wow, all three of the Warriors are now ahead of Lebron/Westbrook/Kawhi/Harden in RPM, with Draymond leading all eligible players (CP3 would be #1).

Which is kinda an example of a reason a Warrior won't win MVP.

So an MVP can't be on a lower seed, but shouldn't be on too good of a team, either? I'm loving this arbitrary threshold that seems to change based on agenda.

No, but who's the MVP of the Warriors? Seems like its very arguable between the top 3. This isn't a Lebron overshadowing Wade/Bosh scenario, this is completely different. It's very difficult to distinguish who really is the most impactful guy on the W's.

[inDe_eD]

Wow, all three of the Warriors are now ahead of Lebron/Westbrook/Kawhi/Harden in RPM, with Draymond leading all eligible players (CP3 would be #1).

Which is kinda an example of a reason a Warrior won't win MVP.

So an MVP can't be on a lower seed, but shouldn't be on too good of a team, either? I'm loving this arbitrary threshold that seems to change based on agenda.

I think it's pretty clear that he's just being realistic about the award. Just look at how mvp voting has gone in the past. It's not given de facto to the +/- leader, or the guy who scores the most points, or the best player on the best team, or the best narrative. It's usually awarded as a combination of all those things. FFS, Derrick Rose won it over Lebron, that should tell you all you need to know.

[bwgood77]

Wow, all three of the Warriors are now ahead of Lebron/Westbrook/Kawhi/Harden in RPM, with Draymond leading all eligible players (CP3 would be #1).

Which is kinda an example of a reason a Warrior won't win MVP.

So an MVP can't be on a lower seed, but shouldn't be on too good of a team, either? I'm loving this arbitrary threshold that seems to change based on agenda.

I think the point is that the people who DO vote for Warriors players will not all vote for the same one and will essentially split the votes for them, allowing one of Harden or Westbrook to win.

[PeptoKlepto]

Which is kinda an example of a reason a Warrior won't win MVP.

So an MVP can't be on a lower seed, but shouldn't be on too good of a team, either? I'm loving this arbitrary threshold that seems to change based on agenda.

I think the point is that the people who DO vote for Warriors players will not all vote for the same one and will essentially split the votes for them, allowing one of Harden or Westbrook to win.

I mean, I guess. But is this THAT different than LeBron winning MVPs with Bosh and Wade, or Durant winning his with Westbrook and Ibaka?