What does a Jays firesale look like?

Saul Goodman · Post #1 » by **Saul Goodman** » Thu Apr 13, 2017 1:58 am

I doubt Shatkins will sit idly by if this team heads into the halfway point well under 500 which is looking to be a lock. Who would stay and who would go in a rebuild sale?

Obvious choices:
Jose Bautista
JA Happ
Liriano
Estrada

Hard to move:
Tulo
Martin

Shockers:
Josh Donaldson????

who would be interested? what could we get for some of the obvious choices as far as prospects go?

Post #2 » by **Schad** » Thu Apr 13, 2017 2:08 am

Bit early to have any idea what we could get for any of them. Wouldn't at all be a shocker if we traded Donaldson, however; he's a free agent after next season, and we're unlikely to pay him $30m+ a year to be on a rebuilding team in his 30s.

Saul Goodman · Post #3 » by **Saul Goodman** » Thu Apr 13, 2017 2:18 am

Schad wrote:Bit early to have any idea what we could get for any of them. Wouldn't at all be a shocker if we traded Donaldson, however; he's a free agent after next season, and we're unlikely to pay him $30m+ a year to be on a rebuilding team in his 30s.

I would be totally okay with this if we could get a kings ransom of prospects from a team like the Cubs.

Yosemite Dan · Post #4 » by **Yosemite Dan** » Thu Apr 13, 2017 2:35 am

We're not getting anything for Jose unless he somehow has 25 dingers by the end of July and manages to stay healthy which is a remote chance for either. If he had zero interest from teams during the off season, there is no way we will get any minor leaguers of substance for a 2 month rental. He's in the same class of trade value as Tulo and Martin at this point.

dagger · Post #5 » by **dagger** » Thu Apr 13, 2017 3:11 am

Older pitchers, maybe Pillar if Alford looks like the elite prospect in waiting, Donaldson if there is at least one A list prospect in the deal, something like a top 20 MLB-wide prospect and another top 100 prospect or two. He could also go next winter.

Lateral Quicks · Post #6 » by **Lateral Quicks** » Thu Apr 13, 2017 1:33 pm

+1 for adding Pillar to the list. By the end of a rebuild Pillar would be in his early 30s and his defense - his main source of value - likely on the decline. Plus a relatively cheap 3 WAR player is likely to bring back decent value.

At the very least Tulo can be salary dumped, but I still think a team would be willing to trade a top 100 prospect or two for him. Unless he's fallen off a cliff, Martin is still an elite defensive catcher that routinely puts up on an OPS in the mid 700s. That's a very valuable commodity.

The only contract that looks like an albatross at this point is Bautista's. Hopefully it's just a slow start, but he does look really bad at the plate.

whysoserious · Post #7 » by **whysoserious** » Thu Apr 13, 2017 2:38 pm

I would assume Morales would draw a ton of interest at his salary level too.

Is Colorado on the hook for any of Tulo's deal or is it 100% on us now?

Post #8 » by **Schad** » Thu Apr 13, 2017 3:41 pm

whysoserious wrote:I would assume Morales would draw a ton of interest at his salary level too.

Is Colorado on the hook for any of Tulo's deal or is it 100% on us now?

We're on the hook for all of it. He came into this season with $78m over four seasons in guaranteed money; it's probably movable if he has a good season, but we're not going to fetch much for a guy paid through age 35.

So_Fresh · Post #9 » by **So_Fresh** » Thu Apr 13, 2017 4:16 pm

I wouldn't mind keeping Tulo even through age 35. Seems to be in good shape and I can see him playing many more years. Even then (I would think) he would still be considered one of the best SS in baseball.

So_Fresh · Post #10 » by **So_Fresh** » Thu Apr 13, 2017 4:19 pm

whysoserious wrote:I would assume Morales would draw a ton of interest at his salary level too.

Is Colorado on the hook for any of Tulo's deal or is it 100% on us now?

We're not trading Morales after signing him to a 3yr deal. He's our best hitter so far, and at $30 million over 3 years it's a steal imo. He looks pretty comfortable at 1B too. Made some nice plays yesterday.

Post #11 » by **Schad** » Thu Apr 13, 2017 4:25 pm

So_Fresh wrote:I wouldn't mind keeping Tulo even through age 35. Seems to be in good shape and I can see him playing many more years. Even then (I would think) he would still be considered one of the best SS in baseball.

There aren't many 35 year old full-time shortstops, and Tulo isn't one of the best overall shortstops in baseball now; he's above-average, but if his defense declines at all with age he'll be a millstone around someone's neck, because his bat over the past two seasons has graded out below league average.

If we're in a position come late June where we're unlikely to compete, and someone wants to take Tulo's golden years off our hands, we should jump at it.

whysoserious · Post #12 » by **whysoserious** » Thu Apr 13, 2017 4:32 pm

So_Fresh wrote:
whysoserious wrote:I would assume Morales would draw a ton of interest at his salary level too.

Is Colorado on the hook for any of Tulo's deal or is it 100% on us now?

We're not trading Morales after signing him to a 3yr deal. He's our best hitter so far, and at $30 million over 3 years it's a steal imo. He looks pretty comfortable at 1B too. Made some nice plays yesterday.

If you're going in to firesale mode and he's on a reasonable deal, he'd be coveted by other teams. That's why he'd be a prime candidate to be moved and likely someone you could get something for.

Steven1562 · Post #13 » by **Steven1562** » Thu Apr 13, 2017 6:22 pm

If we are still trending downward at the halfway point i would look to sell everybody. This team needs a change. We had a 2 year window with the trades Anthopoulos made and now it's time to move on. It was a great run and some of the best times in Blue Jays history but it's time to see the writing on the wall. Even if we returned to form and somehow made it to the postseason could you really see us getting past the ALCS?

Wally West · Post #14 » by **Wally West** » Thu Apr 13, 2017 7:23 pm

Schad wrote:
whysoserious wrote:I would assume Morales would draw a ton of interest at his salary level too.

Is Colorado on the hook for any of Tulo's deal or is it 100% on us now?

We're on the hook for all of it. He came into this season with $78m over four seasons in guaranteed money; it's probably movable if he has a good season, but we're not going to fetch much for a guy paid through age 35.

He also has a full no trade clause that kicked in after the trade from Colorado so he'd have to approve of any deal.

So_Fresh · Post #15 » by **So_Fresh** » Thu Apr 13, 2017 7:24 pm

Schad wrote:
So_Fresh wrote:I wouldn't mind keeping Tulo even through age 35. Seems to be in good shape and I can see him playing many more years. Even then (I would think) he would still be considered one of the best SS in baseball.

There aren't many 35 year old full-time shortstops, and Tulo isn't one of the best overall shortstops in baseball now; he's above-average, but if his defense declines at all with age he'll be a millstone around someone's neck, because his bat over the past two seasons has graded out below league average.

If we're in a position come late June where we're unlikely to compete, and someone wants to take Tulo's golden years off our hands, we should jump at it.

Maybe overall not the best, but defensively he sure is.

Post #16 » by **Schad** » Thu Apr 13, 2017 7:46 pm

blackflash234 wrote:
Schad wrote:
whysoserious wrote:I would assume Morales would draw a ton of interest at his salary level too.

Is Colorado on the hook for any of Tulo's deal or is it 100% on us now?

We're on the hook for all of it. He came into this season with $78m over four seasons in guaranteed money; it's probably movable if he has a good season, but we're not going to fetch much for a guy paid through age 35.

He also has a full no trade clause that kicked in after the trade from Colorado so he'd have to approve of any deal.

Guessing he'd waive it (given his injury history, the concrete might not be the best place for him), though he could leverage it to try and get his option guaranteed.

Asianiac_24 · Post #17 » by **Asianiac_24** » Fri Apr 14, 2017 1:38 am

Hate to say it, but what would be the point of keeping JD if we are going full rebuild? Right now is the best time to trade him as he is in his prime. JD, Morales, Pillar, Tulo, Liriano, Estrada, and Happ should all be traded. Highly doubt Bautista and Martin can net us anything, but if we can get anything for them trade them too.

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Kurtz · Post #18 » by **Kurtz** » Fri Apr 14, 2017 2:43 am

We were always almost certainly going to trade JD - the timeline would just move up from winter to the deadline. Happ/Estrada/Liriano should bring back a good return. Retain 50% of Tulo's deal and get something good back for him too.

Martin might as well retire a Jay - would help our young pitchers develop. Bats and Morales will probably stay too.

Post #19 » by **Schad** » Fri Apr 14, 2017 3:06 am

Additionally, the easiest assets to move are the two (maybe three, if Howell gets it together) good impending FA relievers we have, in Grilli and Smith. There's always demand for rental relievers, though they'd be unlikely to net a fortune.

Part of our issue is that we simply have so many players that would be logical departures, because we're so damned old; we aren't going to find deals for all of them at the deadline. Wouldn't at all be surprising if we packaged a couple players together, nor if we triage'd this and mainly moved the impending FAs this season and the others in the winter.

Yosemite Dan · Post #20 » by **Yosemite Dan** » Fri Apr 14, 2017 1:45 pm

whysoserious wrote:
So_Fresh wrote:
whysoserious wrote:I would assume Morales would draw a ton of interest at his salary level too.

Is Colorado on the hook for any of Tulo's deal or is it 100% on us now?

We're not trading Morales after signing him to a 3yr deal. He's our best hitter so far, and at $30 million over 3 years it's a steal imo. He looks pretty comfortable at 1B too. Made some nice plays yesterday.

If you're going in to firesale mode and he's on a reasonable deal, he'd be coveted by other teams. That's why he'd be a prime candidate to be moved and likely someone you could get something for.

Not good for optics unless Morales wants the trade. if the team trades a free agent it signed to a multi year deal halfway through his first season then this team management team will have a hard time signing future free agents. Who is gonna wanna sign here knowing they may get traded a couple of months later when a losing streak hits?