What does a Jays firesale look like?

[dagger]

Question:

Even if the Jays are over 500 by mid season and Boston offers Devers, Groome & a mid level prospect for Donaldson. Do you do it?

I mean the goal is long term sustainability rite?

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The goal is winning the World Series.

the ultimate goal. You have to build towards. So many things can go wrong with even a good team, notably injuries. You want to have enough great talent under contract or control for long enough to be a perennial threat. You won't win the WS every year, but you want to be a solid contender every year so that when you avoid pitfalls like critical injuries, you can make a strong run in the playoffs.

AA put all of his chips on one number, and from the start, you could see the downside of having a small window of opportunity. You want a larger window, because stars can pull hamstrings and stuff like that which can torpedo a single season but not a multi-year run of serious contention.

[dagger]

BTW, Buster Olney devotes his Insider column today to a firesale if the Jays don't turn it around.

There's nothing really shocking about the analysis - really just a way to state that possible contenders are already focussing on the possibility. He's lukewarm in Estrada and Liriano's value, especially the latter because of the Richard Martin factor. Considering Estrada's performance yesterday, he might want to revisit that. Happ is likely to be very attractive because of the added year of control. A healthy Donaldson would, as we expect, fetch a nice offer. He doesn't mention Pillar, who might be disposable if Alford keeps tearing it up.

Privately, baseball executives will tell you that there is a small silver lining if your team starts badly: You have the flexibility to be decisive and to be aggressive in turning over assets rather than trying to keep up the pretense that you are contending.

The Jays may not reach that stage for weeks, or even months. Riding that pitching staff, they could quickly rejoin the pack in the AL East race. But other teams already are wondering what direction the Jays will take and who they might consider selling.

[Hoopstarr]

It's too bad the Yankees and Braves stole ALL the good prospects over the last two years.

[Schad]

One thing to maybe watch for: summer moves where we ship out secondary assets, like our veteran relievers, for international slot bonus money. Under the new system, there's a hard cap but teams can trade any/all of their bonus pool ($4.75m - $5.75m, depending on the team) as of July 2nd. Teams can increase their bonus pool by 75%...for us, that would be up to $8.3m.

At the same time, the penalties incurred by teams that exceeded their pools in previous years are still in effect. Thus, you have a situation where a bunch of teams (including playoff hopefuls like the Cubs, Cards, Natinals and Dodgers) have $4.75m+ to spend, but cannot spend more than $300k on any individual player. While all of those clubs are big IFA participants, that's likely going to result in a situation where they simply aren't going to find, like, 15 prospects each in the $250-300k range that are worthwhile.

If as Dagger suggests we're hot on the trail of one of the top IFAs (and generally that means "have a handshake agreement in March that will not be announced until July 2") opening up another mil or two of IFA money could be more valuable than getting a couple lesser prospects.

[vaff87]

One thing to maybe watch for: summer moves where we ship out secondary assets, like our veteran relievers, for international slot bonus money. Under the new system, there's a hard cap but teams can trade any/all of their bonus pool ($4.75m - $5.75m, depending on the team) as of July 2nd*. Teams can increase their bonus pool by 75%...for us, that would be up to $8.3m.

At the same time, the penalties incurred by teams that exceeded their pools in previous years are still in effect. Thus, you have a situation where a bunch of teams (including playoff hopefuls like the Cubs, Cards, Natinals and Dodgers) have $4.75m+ to spend, but cannot spend more than $300k on any individual player. While all of those clubs are big IFA participants, that's likely going to result in a situation where they simply aren't going to find, like, 15 prospects each in the $250-300k range that are worthwhile.

If as Dagger suggests we're hot on the trail of one of the top IFAs (and generally that means "have a handshake agreement in March that will not be announced until July 2") opening up another mil or two of IFA money could be more valuable than getting a couple lesser prospects.

Who is this prospect?

[Schad]

One thing to maybe watch for: summer moves where we ship out secondary assets, like our veteran relievers, for international slot bonus money. Under the new system, there's a hard cap but teams can trade any/all of their bonus pool ($4.75m - $5.75m, depending on the team) as of July 2nd*. Teams can increase their bonus pool by 75%...for us, that would be up to $8.3m.

At the same time, the penalties incurred by teams that exceeded their pools in previous years are still in effect. Thus, you have a situation where a bunch of teams (including playoff hopefuls like the Cubs, Cards, Natinals and Dodgers) have $4.75m+ to spend, but cannot spend more than $300k on any individual player. While all of those clubs are big IFA participants, that's likely going to result in a situation where they simply aren't going to find, like, 15 prospects each in the $250-300k range that are worthwhile.

If as Dagger suggests we're hot on the trail of one of the top IFAs (and generally that means "have a handshake agreement in March that will not be announced until July 2") opening up another mil or two of IFA money could be more valuable than getting a couple lesser prospects.

Who is this prospect?

No idea...he mentioned it here:

viewtopic.php?f=123&t=1551022&start=280#p54450271

[vaff87]

One thing to maybe watch for: summer moves where we ship out secondary assets, like our veteran relievers, for international slot bonus money. Under the new system, there's a hard cap but teams can trade any/all of their bonus pool ($4.75m - $5.75m, depending on the team) as of July 2nd*. Teams can increase their bonus pool by 75%...for us, that would be up to $8.3m.

At the same time, the penalties incurred by teams that exceeded their pools in previous years are still in effect. Thus, you have a situation where a bunch of teams (including playoff hopefuls like the Cubs, Cards, Natinals and Dodgers) have $4.75m+ to spend, but cannot spend more than $300k on any individual player. While all of those clubs are big IFA participants, that's likely going to result in a situation where they simply aren't going to find, like, 15 prospects each in the $250-300k range that are worthwhile.

If as Dagger suggests we're hot on the trail of one of the top IFAs (and generally that means "have a handshake agreement in March that will not be announced until July 2") opening up another mil or two of IFA money could be more valuable than getting a couple lesser prospects.

Who is this prospect?

No idea...he mentioned it here:

viewtopic.php?f=123&t=1551022&start=280#p54450271

Gotcha. Do you know much about the IFA market this year? Or for that matter, the draft next year?

[-MetA4-]

Its RHP Eric Pardinho, the top prospect out of Brazil.

[Schad]

That's right, had totally forgotten about that link.

[-MetA4-]

We're also supposed to have a deal with a SS for like $800K+ if I remember correctly

[-MetA4-]

Perfect Game:

2017 World Showcase Jan 07, 2017
PG Grade: 10
Eric Taniguchi Pardinho is a 2018 RHP with a 5-10 165 lb. frame from Bastos, Brazil. Medium, athletic frame with square shoulders, very nice build with present strength throughout, strong lower half and core which are incorporated into delivery. Primary righthanded pitcher, lots of tempo, rhythm, and balance to delivery, high leg lift up past belt, gathers over rubber well and and shows a long and fluid arm stroke through the backside working to a high three-quarters arm slot. Advanced ability to repeat delivery, especially for age, and remains on line with lower half directionality. Very low effort delivery and release, able to generate plane on fastball and showed advanced command of fastball that lived comfortably in the 90-93 mph range. Worked either side of the plate with fastball with intent, curveball shows downer life and 12-6 shape with late, tight bite at 79 mph, slider was just as tight at 81 mph with solid finish to the glove side. Reminiscent of Jeremy Hellickson at this age. Looks to be one of the top international arms for the July 2nd signing period. Named to World Showcase Top Prospect List.

[vaff87]

Watch on YouTube

[dagger]

If as Dagger suggests we're hot on the trail of one of the top IFAs (and generally that means "have a handshake agreement in March that will not be announced until July 2") opening up another mil or two of IFA money could be more valuable than getting a couple lesser prospects.

This is the name mentioned

https://clutchlings.blogspot.ca/2017/04/blue-jays-said-to-be-front-runners-to.html

I don't know if he would be the most expensive July 2 signee, or just a very good prospect.

[JaysRule15]

looks like a solid prospect. Kinda wish he was a bit taller though. But HDMH right?

[vaff87]

looks like a solid prospect. Kinda wish he was a bit taller though. But HDMH right?

He's only 15 or 16. Will probably grow a bit.

[JaysRule15]

looks like a solid prospect. Kinda wish he was a bit taller though. But HDMH right?

He's only 15 or 16. Will probably grow a bit.

Yeah, true. Might still have a growth spurt left in him. Maybe he could end up being the Brazilian athlete Toronto has been waiting for.

[vaff87]

looks like a solid prospect. Kinda wish he was a bit taller though. But HDMH right?

He's only 15 or 16. Will probably grow a bit.

Yeah, true. Might still have a growth spurt left in him. Maybe he could end up being the Brazilian athlete Toronto has been waiting for.

#PardinhoSkull.

[rapstarter]

I'm a casual fan, and I'm here reading up on a 15 year old Brazilian baseball prospect just 2 weeks into the season. Sad!

[-MetA4-]

I don't know if he would be the most expensive July 2 signee, or just a very good prospect.

I don't think he's supposed to be the most expensive prospect or anything; not even sure we'll need to acquire additional bonus pool.

[Lateral Quicks]

looks like a solid prospect. Kinda wish he was a bit taller though. But HDMH right?

He's only 15 or 16. Will probably grow a bit.

Three years away from being three years away.