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RealGM • View topic - 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?)
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2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?)

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Post#286 Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?
Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:59 pm by GONYK

R-DAWG wrote:
suicidedeuce wrote:
ORANGEandBLUE wrote:I understand. I'm just saying that from a pure bball standpoint, it was not only sensible, but a flat-out no-brainer. And hindsight is overwhelmingly on my side.


And this is the rub. When I evaluate the Glen Gruwald, I'm scruntinizing him with realistic expectations, I don't filter the criticism through my own fantasies.

I judge him on how he's doing the job he's been given to do, and not MY PERSONAL fantasy version of his job description.

The Chandler move was perfectly reasonable considering the ACTUAL circumstances.

To suggest Knicks would use the amnesy of Stat a couple of months after getting Melo is ridiculous from any pragmatic standpoint, not matter how much you want to defend it from a purely basketball perspective.


you do understand how the amnesty works, right? You didn't need to use the amnesty in 2011. It could have been used in 2012 or 2013 or whenever. As long as Amare was playing like a max player you had a chance to go deep in the playoffs and as soon as he broke down his contract would hold the team back. As good as Chandler was in 2011-2012, it left the team without any guards and extremely flawed. And the team will be flawed until Amare comes off the books.

Here we are, 2 years and 2 playoff disappointments later, wasting away the prime of Melo's career.


Taking a step back from a 54 win team also wastes his career
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Post#287 Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?
Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:00 pm by R-DAWG

GONYK wrote:
ORANGEandBLUE wrote:Yeah, I mean this notion that a GM who goes all in once, will always go all in, is pretty clearly refuted by what Ainge did this summer.


How so?

Ainge was forced to blow it up. Can't win now with KG and Pierce.


I thought Boston has had a great summer. There window closed and they liquidated their assets. They picked up 4 1st rd picks and the right to swap picks with Brooklyn in 2017. Wallace's contract is bad but if they are not going to contend for 2-3 years the picks are more valuable.

Boston did the same thing before the big 3 era, stockpiled the assets, tanked in 2007, put themselves in position to make big time moves.

I wish our organization would follow the plan that lead Boston to the 2008 Championship.
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Post#288 Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?
Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:01 pm by suicidedeuce

R-DAWG wrote:who said amnesty stat in 2011?


You're the second person to ask that. Read what you're responding to please.
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Post#289 Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?
Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:02 pm by GONYK

R-DAWG wrote:
GONYK wrote:
ORANGEandBLUE wrote:Yeah, I mean this notion that a GM who goes all in once, will always go all in, is pretty clearly refuted by what Ainge did this summer.


How so?

Ainge was forced to blow it up. Can't win now with KG and Pierce.


I thought Boston has had a great summer. There window closed and they liquidated their assets. They picked up 4 1st rd picks and the right to swap picks with Brooklyn in 2017. Wallace's contract is bad but if they are not going to contend for 2-3 years the picks are more valuable.

Boston did the same thing before the big 3 era, stockpiled the assets, tanked in 2007, put themselves in position to make big time moves.

I wish our organization would follow the plan that lead Boston to the 2008 Championship.


The Knicks are capable of doing the same once they feel their window has closed and their core is pushing 40
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Post#290 Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?
Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:02 pm by R-DAWG

GONYK wrote:
R-DAWG wrote:
suicidedeuce wrote:
And this is the rub. When I evaluate the Glen Gruwald, I'm scruntinizing him with realistic expectations, I don't filter the criticism through my own fantasies.

I judge him on how he's doing the job he's been given to do, and not MY PERSONAL fantasy version of his job description.

The Chandler move was perfectly reasonable considering the ACTUAL circumstances.

To suggest Knicks would use the amnesy of Stat a couple of months after getting Melo is ridiculous from any pragmatic standpoint, not matter how much you want to defend it from a purely basketball perspective.


you do understand how the amnesty works, right? You didn't need to use the amnesty in 2011. It could have been used in 2012 or 2013 or whenever. As long as Amare was playing like a max player you had a chance to go deep in the playoffs and as soon as he broke down his contract would hold the team back. As good as Chandler was in 2011-2012, it left the team without any guards and extremely flawed. And the team will be flawed until Amare comes off the books.

Here we are, 2 years and 2 playoff disappointments later, wasting away the prime of Melo's career.


Taking a step back from a 54 win team also wastes his career


The window has closed with Amare being the #2 scorer. Until he's off the books the team will not be a threat to win it all. So we can either sacrifice a year to put ourselves in better position to improve the following year or keep trying to tread water.

Do you understand the big picture?
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Post#291 Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?
Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:04 pm by R-DAWG

GONYK wrote:
R-DAWG wrote:
GONYK wrote:
How so?

Ainge was forced to blow it up. Can't win now with KG and Pierce.


I thought Boston has had a great summer. There window closed and they liquidated their assets. They picked up 4 1st rd picks and the right to swap picks with Brooklyn in 2017. Wallace's contract is bad but if they are not going to contend for 2-3 years the picks are more valuable.

Boston did the same thing before the big 3 era, stockpiled the assets, tanked in 2007, put themselves in position to make big time moves.

I wish our organization would follow the plan that lead Boston to the 2008 Championship.


The Knicks are capable of doing the same once they feel their window has closed and their core is pushing 40


The window closed when your highest paid player is on a 20 minute a night restriction and hasn't been able to stay healthy for the past 2 seasons. The window is closed and the Knicks are just adding fuel to the fire.
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Post#292 Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?
Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:06 pm by GONYK

R-DAWG wrote:
GONYK wrote:
R-DAWG wrote:
you do understand how the amnesty works, right? You didn't need to use the amnesty in 2011. It could have been used in 2012 or 2013 or whenever. As long as Amare was playing like a max player you had a chance to go deep in the playoffs and as soon as he broke down his contract would hold the team back. As good as Chandler was in 2011-2012, it left the team without any guards and extremely flawed. And the team will be flawed until Amare comes off the books.

Here we are, 2 years and 2 playoff disappointments later, wasting away the prime of Melo's career.


Taking a step back from a 54 win team also wastes his career


The window has closed with Amare being the #2 scorer. Until he's off the books the team will not be a threat to win it all. So we can either sacrifice a year to put ourselves in better position to improve the following year or keep trying to tread water.

Do you understand the big picture?


The big picture is, at the moment, 2015. The FO is not directionless. There seems to be a very deliberate plan.
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Post#293 Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?
Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:07 pm by Jazz(FU)

Lots of fires burning behind closed windows here....
LARRY: We need some defense.
ISIAH: Play with what you have.
LARRY: We need some defense.
ISIAH: You're fired.
DOLAN: You got one year.
ISIAH: We need some defense.
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Post#294 Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?
Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:09 pm by seren

GONYK wrote:The big picture is, at the moment, 2015. The FO is not directionless. There seems to be a very deliberate plan.


I am not too keen on deliberate plan. I applaud them for not taking contracts longer than 2015 yet, but were they given a chance to do so? We don't know that yet.
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Post#295 Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?
Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:10 pm by suicidedeuce

R-DAWG wrote:you do understand how the amnesty works, right? You didn't need to use the amnesty in 2011. It could have been used in 2012 or 2013 or whenever. As long as Amare was playing like a max player you had a chance to go deep in the playoffs and as soon as he broke down his contract would hold the team back. As good as Chandler was in 2011-2012, it left the team without any guards and extremely flawed. And the team will be flawed until Amare comes off the books.

Here we are, 2 years and 2 playoff disappointments later, wasting away the prime of Melo's career.


You want it both ways, R-Dawg.

Knicks would have been worse the last 2 years had the not acquired Chandler.

I can only post exactly what I mean so many times and have you respond to be completely ignoring it.

Knicks did NOT hedge their bests and hold back for an insurance policy. The went ALL-IN in year 1 of a 4 year window.

I think I agree with most of you on that.

I just can't criticize them for it. I can't acknowledge the virtue of knowingly advocating the Knicks passively play their hand, JUST IN CASE, especially when it's mostly based in hindsight.

I've had enough exhanges with you R-Dawg where its clear you just don't understand my position.

You always want one foot in two years from now, you seem to want every move to set up the next move. I again, just don't see that being realistic in the NBA.

Knicks went for it. I can respect that, while at the same recognize i may not work.

You seem incapable of distinguishing between them.
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Post#296 Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?
Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:10 pm by GONYK

seren wrote:
GONYK wrote:The big picture is, at the moment, 2015. The FO is not directionless. There seems to be a very deliberate plan.


I am not too keen on deliberate plan. I applaud them for not taking contracts longer than 2015 yet, but were they given a chance to do so? We don't know that yet.


True, but we do know they declined to keep at least 1 contract beyond that date, and it was worth a 1st round pick for them to do so.
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Post#297 Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?
Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:12 pm by R-DAWG

GONYK wrote:
R-DAWG wrote:
GONYK wrote:
Taking a step back from a 54 win team also wastes his career


The window has closed with Amare being the #2 scorer. Until he's off the books the team will not be a threat to win it all. So we can either sacrifice a year to put ourselves in better position to improve the following year or keep trying to tread water.

Do you understand the big picture?


The big picture is, at the moment, 2015. The FO is not directionless. There seems to be a very deliberate plan.


if the big picture is 2015 why give up a pick for Bargnani. Why sign JR Smith to a 3 year deal. Why not trade Chandler and stockpile assets. The front office isn't concerned about 2015. They care about getting headlines NOW at all costs.

What they should have done in 2011:
Used the full MLE to sign a player to a 2 year, $10m deal
Used the bi annual exception to sign a player to a 2 year, $4m deal
Looked to see what they could get for Billups and Turiafs's expiring, again only taking back player with 2 year deals

The fans would have been excited, the players excited. Sell the first training camp and full year of Amare and Melo together. The goal being that in 2013 to have a roster with only Melo, Shumpert, and the 2015 1st under contract and $30 million in cap space the year BEFORE Melo has the opt out.

I am sure this plan could have resulted in 1-2 in playoff series over the last 2 years.
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Post#298 Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?
Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:15 pm by suicidedeuce

R-DAWG wrote:The window has closed with Amare being the #2 scorer. Until he's off the books the team will not be a threat to win it all. So we can either sacrifice a year to put ourselves in better position to improve the following year or keep trying to tread water.

Do you understand the big picture?


Do you understand that is your OPINION?

Knicks aren't going to break it down coming off a 54 win, EC semis appearance, when they already have a built in break it down period in 2015.

NOTHING you are advocating today can't be done at the deadline or in 2014 if the 2013-2104 season PROVES the direction is going the wrong way.

Your FANTASY of it being broken down NOW is a FAN fantasy of which you're perfectly entitled to.

The irony is a a fan of this team you should recognize who and what they are and I'd advise accept that.

Knicks are NOT breaking it down now. They don't exist to do that.

These are both indisputable facts. That you don't seem to understand the latter is going go cause you nothing but frustration for years to come.
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Post#299 Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?
Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:15 pm by GONYK

R-DAWG wrote:
GONYK wrote:
R-DAWG wrote:
The window has closed with Amare being the #2 scorer. Until he's off the books the team will not be a threat to win it all. So we can either sacrifice a year to put ourselves in better position to improve the following year or keep trying to tread water.

Do you understand the big picture?


The big picture is, at the moment, 2015. The FO is not directionless. There seems to be a very deliberate plan.


if the big picture is 2015 why give up a pick for Bargnani. Why sign JR Smith to a 3 year deal. Why not trade Chandler and stockpile assets. The front office isn't concerned about 2015. They care about getting headlines NOW at all costs.

What they should have done in 2011:
Used the full MLE to sign a player to a 2 year, $10m deal
Used the bi annual exception to sign a player to a 2 year, $4m deal
Looked to see what they could get for Billups and Turiafs's expiring, again only taking back player with 2 year deals

The fans would have been excited, the players excited. Sell the first training camp and full year of Amare and Melo together. The goal being that in 2013 to have a roster with only Melo, Shumpert, and the 2015 1st under contract and $30 million in cap space the year BEFORE Melo has the opt out.

I am sure this plan could have resulted in 1-2 in playoff series over the last 2 years.


Because we feel like winning in the meantime. The Knicks don't share your opinion about your window.

It's not that hard.
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Post#300 Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?
Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:16 pm by R-DAWG

suicidedeuce wrote:
R-DAWG wrote:you do understand how the amnesty works, right? You didn't need to use the amnesty in 2011. It could have been used in 2012 or 2013 or whenever. As long as Amare was playing like a max player you had a chance to go deep in the playoffs and as soon as he broke down his contract would hold the team back. As good as Chandler was in 2011-2012, it left the team without any guards and extremely flawed. And the team will be flawed until Amare comes off the books.

Here we are, 2 years and 2 playoff disappointments later, wasting away the prime of Melo's career.


You want it both ways, R-Dawg.

Knicks would have been worse the last 2 years had the not acquired Chandler.

I can only post exactly what I mean so many times and have you respond to be completely ignoring it.

Knicks did NOT hedge their bests and hold back for an insurance policy. The went ALL-IN in year 1 of a 4 year window.

I think I agree with most of you on that.

I just can't criticize them for it. I can't acknowledge the virtue of knowingly advocating the Knicks passively play their hand, JUST IN CASE, especially when it's mostly based in hindsight.

I've had enough exhanges with you R-Dawg where its clear you just don't understand my position.

You always want one foot in two years from now, you seem to want every move to set up the next move. I again, just don't see that being realistic in the NBA.

Knicks went for it. I can respect that, while at the same recognize i may not work.

You seem incapable of distinguishing between them.


What 4 year window? A four year window to lose in the first round? I understand they went all it, it didn't work out. Yes, they might have not been as good the past 2 years without Chandler. BUT why don't you admit that:
A) the Knicks have flopped in the playoffs the past 2 years and failed to meet expectations
and
B) the Knicks would be in a much better position today if they could amnesty Amare
and
C) if you went all in and you haven't accomplished your goal why do you keep doubling down (ie trading draft picks and handing out long term contracts)
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Post#301 Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?
Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:19 pm by R-DAWG

GONYK wrote:
R-DAWG wrote:
GONYK wrote:
The big picture is, at the moment, 2015. The FO is not directionless. There seems to be a very deliberate plan.


if the big picture is 2015 why give up a pick for Bargnani. Why sign JR Smith to a 3 year deal. Why not trade Chandler and stockpile assets. The front office isn't concerned about 2015. They care about getting headlines NOW at all costs.

What they should have done in 2011:
Used the full MLE to sign a player to a 2 year, $10m deal
Used the bi annual exception to sign a player to a 2 year, $4m deal
Looked to see what they could get for Billups and Turiafs's expiring, again only taking back player with 2 year deals

The fans would have been excited, the players excited. Sell the first training camp and full year of Amare and Melo together. The goal being that in 2013 to have a roster with only Melo, Shumpert, and the 2015 1st under contract and $30 million in cap space the year BEFORE Melo has the opt out.

I am sure this plan could have resulted in 1-2 in playoff series over the last 2 years.


Because we feel like winning in the meantime. The Knicks don't share your opinion about your window.

It's not that hard.


winning championships or headlines?

because no team is winning a championship with Andrea Bargnani and JR Smith as the 2nd and 3rd best offensive players.

I hope i'm wrong but how did you watch last years playoffs after game 3 in Boston and feel like this team can contend. It's a team built for the regular season. Suspect defense, a million 3 pointers and guys that chuck up bad shots.
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Post#302 Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?
Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:20 pm by seren

R-DAWG wrote:
What 4 year window? A four year window to lose in the first round? I understand they went all it, it didn't work out. Yes, they might have not been as good the past 2 years without Chandler. BUT why don't you admit that:
A) the Knicks have flopped in the playoffs the past 2 years and failed to meet expectations
and
B) the Knicks would be in a much better position today if they could amnesty Amare
and
C) if you went all in and you haven't accomplished your goal why do you keep doubling down (ie trading draft picks and handing out long term contracts)


This is an exaggeration. It is one thing to say the team is playing for a championship, but as realistic fans as well as the FO, we all knew that a 50+ win team and second round was a great success. In fact, last season was quite remarkable given our second best player was injured almost all year.
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Post#303 Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?
Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:21 pm by Capn'O

suicidedeuce wrote:
Capn'O wrote:I think this is right. I heavily questioned the Melo move as I don't think he's a guy that can carry a deep playoff run. But once you commit... Commit hard.


I took flack last night for not being fully committed to ONE opinion, but I am committed to ONE concept, nuance.

I have doubts whether Melo is that guy either.

I also think he may have been the Knicks best option.

Those things can co-exist.

There is one Lebron James. And I think the KNicks took an honest pass at him. I have honest questions about who the next generation of franchise superstars are after Durant and Rose (who BOTH still have incomplete resumes themselves).

Sometimes the best move is the best available move.

The Knicks Stat-Melo window may close like the windows for most every competitive championship does, with a title, but I don't see this obvious alternative soem of your seems to think existed or would exist.

Hell, even the POTENTIAL 2015 FA class of Gasol, Love, Rondo and Aldridge doesn't exactly inspire awe.

Knicks are a HIGHLY imperfect team. Given the starting point of 2010, I'm not sure how reasonable it is to expect otherwise.

I can't kill the Knicks for the make-up of this team - it may not work, but that doesn't mean it may not also have been the best you could have reasonably expected.


Look at what the Rockets have done - not as an exact blueprint we could have followed. But their pieces match and they maintained their flexibility until they had a legit shot at pieces that matched. You have to think Howard looked at Houston and their two playmakers and shooters and thought "damn, that could work great. I see where I fit in." Once the Knicks got Stat, I wish they had held court and maintained flexibility for a piece that better matched.

I was advocating to either keep flexibility for a Paul trade or go in hard for Gasol in the summer as those pieces better fit with the existing piece (and coach). Melo is great but if you have one scoring forward with questionable defense why get another?
johnnywishbone wrote:It's amazing. The Raptors win a few games and all of a sudden their fans think they're from Boston.
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Post#304 Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?
Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:24 pm by R-DAWG

seren wrote:
R-DAWG wrote:
What 4 year window? A four year window to lose in the first round? I understand they went all it, it didn't work out. Yes, they might have not been as good the past 2 years without Chandler. BUT why don't you admit that:
A) the Knicks have flopped in the playoffs the past 2 years and failed to meet expectations
and
B) the Knicks would be in a much better position today if they could amnesty Amare
and
C) if you went all in and you haven't accomplished your goal why do you keep doubling down (ie trading draft picks and handing out long term contracts)


This is an exaggeration. It is one thing to say the team is playing for a championship, but as realistic fans as well as the FO, we all knew that a 50+ win team and second round was a great success. In fact, last season was quite remarkable given our second best player was injured almost all year.


DId you watch the games? They were lucky they didn't blow a 3-0 lead to Boston and got killed by Indiana. KILLED by Indiana. With the exception of getting hot for 15 minutes in game 2 and George Hill missing game 5 the Knicks were no match for Indiana.

Going into the postseason everyone, me included, said a good season was the conference finals considering the injured to the rest of the top teams in the conference.

By Dolan standard last year was a great year. But I grew up under the Steinbrenner doctrine.
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Post#305 Re: 2015 Scenarios (what the hell, it's July?
Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:26 pm by GONYK

Capn'O wrote:
suicidedeuce wrote:
Capn'O wrote:I think this is right. I heavily questioned the Melo move as I don't think he's a guy that can carry a deep playoff run. But once you commit... Commit hard.


I took flack last night for not being fully committed to ONE opinion, but I am committed to ONE concept, nuance.

I have doubts whether Melo is that guy either.

I also think he may have been the Knicks best option.

Those things can co-exist.

There is one Lebron James. And I think the KNicks took an honest pass at him. I have honest questions about who the next generation of franchise superstars are after Durant and Rose (who BOTH still have incomplete resumes themselves).

Sometimes the best move is the best available move.

The Knicks Stat-Melo window may close like the windows for most every competitive championship does, with a title, but I don't see this obvious alternative soem of your seems to think existed or would exist.

Hell, even the POTENTIAL 2015 FA class of Gasol, Love, Rondo and Aldridge doesn't exactly inspire awe.

Knicks are a HIGHLY imperfect team. Given the starting point of 2010, I'm not sure how reasonable it is to expect otherwise.

I can't kill the Knicks for the make-up of this team - it may not work, but that doesn't mean it may not also have been the best you could have reasonably expected.


Look at what the Rockets have done - not as an exact blueprint we could have followed. But their pieces match and they maintained their flexibility until they had a legit shot at pieces that matched. You have to think Howard looked at Houston and their two playmakers and thought "damn, that could work great." Once the Knicks got Stat, I wish they had held court and maintained flexibility for a piece that better matched.

I was advocating to either keep flexibility for a Paul trade or go in hard for Gasol in the summer as those pieces better fit with the existing piece (and coach). You have one scoring forward with questionable defense. Why get another?


I asked this question in another thread, but can you think of a team that has operated like the Rockets (being a treadmill for 6 years) or even the Nuggets that hasn't done so out of fear of the luxury tax?

I can't think of one big market team who has done so, outside of maybe Chicago.
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