Trade/Draft Review

[TBpup]

From the majority of post, tweets, phone calls and the 3 guys I saw teetering on the Broadway bridge last night on my way to work this morning, I take it most Blazer fans are not happy with what has gone one. So hopefully a little time and objectivity will pull some of those souls who are too dangerously close to the edge.

Trade #1:

Nic Batum for Gerald Henderson and Art (some call him Noah) Von(de)leh. For the endless calls for Nic to be more aggressive, more consistent and to show some heart over the last season there were just as many, "how could we possibly trade Nic Batum" sentiments after the trade. Remember, this is a multi-talented, jack-of-all-trades kind of player that would often disappear for large stretches of games. 9 pts per game for almost $12MM....that is not good enough. What is worse was the consistency. Rarely was it 9 points. More often it was either 4 points or 15 points or a 3 minute stretch of brilliance surrounded by 32 minutes of Nytol induced sleep.

I'll take the less talented Henderson who is much more consistent and plays much harder on a night to night basis along with the high poential of a mid-lottery along with a little extra cap space. Nic was going to be gone after the season anyway IMO. I expect he'll have a good season this year to get a new contract but that to me is almost unprofessional....where was that in the previous seasons?

Trade #2:

Drafted Rondae Hollis-Jefferson at #23, then traded him and Steve Blake (for the 17th time) to New Jersey for Mason Plumlee and Pat Connaughton. Some people were comparing RHJ to MKG or Tony Allen. Yes he was a hyper athletic wing who was a very good defender in college. But at 211 lbs, that has a ways to go to translate to the pros....and the guy can not shoot. For as bad as MKG is and Tony Allen still is after 9 seasons, MKG shot 25% higher in college than Hollis-Jefferson and Allen was a very respectable 35% from '3' over 2 seasons. RHJ shot 20% from the college line. Watch his mechanics and this is not an example of Jason Kidd being able to learn to shoot better....that shot is very broken. Teams would IMMEDIATELY double-team off of him to whomever else had the ball every time he hit the floor.

Plumlee is a USA National Team player with a PER of over 18 last year who is proven as at least a solid role player on a very inexpensive contract. Athletic big man who can run the floor and has a nice touch on the offensive end. Connaughton is a tough nosed athletic freak who can shoot but not a lot else....and how is it bad having and Irish guy in the land of Kells, The Dublin Pub and micro-breweries everywhere? The guy could be a marketing fan favorite. Kidding aside, he played SG, SF and PF when his team was short-handed, who beat National Champion Duke twice and lost to #1 Kentucky by 2 points in a surprising run in the NCAA's.

Nic's time here was over and Portland's future wasn't going to be made or broken on a mid-20's draft pick who can't shoot to save his life. This was early 1st quarter dealings and the bulk of Portland's future is still to be resolved in the coming weeks.

Relax Blazer fans....we have 4 young lottery picks in Dame, CJ, Legend and the Importer/Exporter Von(de)leh. We have Bird Rights to LA, Wes, Lopz and Afflalo and whether or not some or all of them return, there is the flexibility of potentially a LOT of cap space in a year where there is quite a bit of FA talent or the ability to absorb another veteran in an unbalanced trade.

More to come...

[bob2]

Both trades were pretty good.

I liked Batum but he was probably leaving next year anyway and getting a former top 10 pick with 3 years left on his rookie deal looks like a nice return.

And Plumlee is another promising young big (remember he was with team USA during last year's World Cup) on a nice contract. Moving down from 23 to 41 seems like a cheap price to get him.

[Billy]

I shared some of my thoughts in a separate thread, but I like talking so I'll share some more here

I really like the Batum trade. I honestly was at the point where I'd be happy to get a solid starter and some cap savings in return. Getting a guy that Portland really liked last year who is one year from being the #9 pick is a pretty nice cherry on top. I know very little about him, but obviously potential is there. Whether Portland reaps the benefits directly, or finds another spot for him--I don't know.

Portland obviously freed up some cap space (which Olshey covets--remains to be seen what happens with it), but also managed to find an adequate replacement for Wes that is making a reasonable amount. IF by some miracle Portland goes out and scores big in FA at any of the C/F positions and doesn't have a ton of room left, we won't be forced into starting CJ/Crabbe/Connaughton out the gate.

I am still a little bit on the fence about the Plumlee deal--but I know that it's fairly unreasonable. I just really like RHJ, and thought him falling to Portland was a major boon. Truth be told, as you stated, Plumlee does bring a lot of attributes to the team--and much like Henderson to Matthews, is a much cheaper alternative to Lopez or Kaman. He is the type of player that Portland fans usually love and respect. If anything he'll bring some toughness to the roster that Leonard and Vonleh can't.

[Downtown]

As I mentioned in another thread I like the Plumlee trade since I don't think RHJ is that good anyways. And the Batum trade will be good IF they are able to sign one of the high end small forwards in free agency. To me that is key.

If they do retain Aldridge and get a really good small forward then I can live with both Plumlee and Henderson as the Lopez and Mathews replacements given the potential contract status of both. With Lillard getting the max extension Olshey had to draw the line somewhere.

[TBpup]

I shared some of my thoughts in a separate thread, but I like talking so I'll share some more here

You could have shared all sorts of thoughts last night. We had a great time and you were missed. I gave your regrets to everyone.

[Billy]

I shared some of my thoughts in a separate thread, but I like talking so I'll share some more here

You could have shared all sorts of thoughts last night. We had a great time and you were missed. I gave your regrets to everyone.

Much appreciated. I would have loved to make it. Glad everyone was get together though.

[Run PDX]

All in all, I was impressed by Olshey's moves over the last two days.
* Portland out: Batum (had a rough year, expiring contract), Blake (had a rough year, getting older), and Hollis-Jefferson (probably wasn't going to fit into Stott's offense, might not translate to the NBA as quickly as people think).
* Portland in: Vonleh (a project PF with tremendous upside), Connaughton (a potential steal at #41), Plumlee (a promising center prospect), Henderson (a good backup to CJ), and more cap flexibility.

But, my favorite Olshey move was his press conference last night. He pretty much shut the door on reporters who wanted to hear him say that the team was rebuilding, or that Aldridge was leaving. I liked that.

[Wizenheimer]

* the Batum Trade:

I was more forgiving then most here of Batum's flaws. I thought his impact was bigger then most were giving him credit for, and that included his extremely low usage rate which complemented the high usage Aldridge/Lillard and Matthews

I mentioned it in another thread, but I suspect that if Batum was not insistent on playing for the french national team every year, he might still be a Blazer.

I'll admit that I'm less impressed then most here with youth and potential. I've just seen that potential turn out to be a mirage too many times. I sure as hell am not impressed when people keep parroting "Vonleh was a 9th pick, should have been a 4th pick"...that makes no sense to me, but more then that, it comes so quickly after so many people were saying "TRob was the 5th pick" as a way to praise that trade. And we saw the flaws with that thinking

I saw Vonleh play once in college, but nothing stands out. I don't recall seeing him play last season, but then, I only saw Charlotte the two times Portland played them. I don't think he played in those games, but I'm too lazy this morning to look it up. Point is, I don't know anything really about Vonleh. I know he was measured as 6'8' without shoes so he's rather undersized for a PF, even considering his arm length. But that might not mean as much these days as it used to, and his other numbers at the draft combine were impressive

I'll hold out hope that Vonleh will 'prove' Olshey's evaluation of his talent is correct

conditionally, I'd probably give this trade a C+ or B-. Obviously, it's way early to be rating it. This trade gives the Blazers over 3 million in extra cap-space, so how that is used becomes an integral part of value. And of course, how Vonleh develops and how useful Henderson is goes into producing the final grade
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* RHJ + Blake for Plumlee + Connaughton:

I don't watch much college BB. I do watch Pac-12 games so I saw RHJ play a few times. He had a noticeable impact with energy and physical play. But I have a hard time translating that kind of play to the NBA. I'm no scout I guess.

My hunch is that a significant factor from Olshey's POV in making that trade, is that with Terry Stotts as coach, a wing who can't shoot is a liability, especially in his first couples of seasons. Plumlee is a true 7 footer with good athleticism. And he sure seems to be a cheap replacement for either Lopez or Kaman. I'm not comfortable with a C rotation of Plumlee and Leonard, but that may be what Portland trots out next season (I don't believe Meyers is a PF)

Blake is no loss. Besides, we may very well see him back in Portland in some capacity. Maybe as an assistant coach or on Talkin Ball. He can get in a fist fight with Mike Rice

the Connaughton kid sounds intriguing but I hold no hope for mid 2nd round picks. Will Barton sounded intriguing to

and once again, some cap-space was created
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* the Context:

that's the big thing...we don't know yet. Those two trades create an extra 4.4 million in cap-space (by the way, if the Blazers have cap-space, which seems highly probable, the TPE from the Batum trade is gone)

to Olshey's credit, he has collected a large group of very small contracts for next summer's cap-space derby:

Damian Lillard $4,236,287
C.J. McCollum $2,525,160
Meyers Leonard $3,075,880
Allen Crabbe $947,276
Tim Frazier $845,059
Gerald Henderson $6,000,000
Noah Vonleh $2,637,720
Mason Plumlee $1,415,520
Pat Connaughton $0 (2nd round picks don't count till signed)
(Chris Kaman $1,000,000)

23.2 million for 9 players

add 3 roster charges and the Blazers are around 24.8 million, leaving somewhere around 42 million in cap-space

a lot of options from there but obviously, two difficult decisions about Matthews and Lopez (although I suspect those decisions have already been made)

it may start by renouncing Matthews and Lopez, absorbing the cap-hold of Aldridge, and making an offer to some big time free agent and see if that can convince Aldridge to re-sign. I just don't know who that FA could be

[DavidSterned]

Batum trade gets an A- from me. That was near excellent return for an expiring contract, and after the season he just had? Color me surprised.

The RHJ trade gets a D from me. Ugh. Hate that we're passing on the opportunity to develop a young, club controlled propsect who could give us the wing defense and athleticism that we're now sorely lacking. Plumlee is thoroughly average and will never be much more, and IMO we certainly could've acquired a Plumlee level player after filling the other gaping holes on our roster first.

Olshey is putting a lot of pressure on himself to hit a free agency home run or two. If he doesn't, next season is going to be a complete tankfest.

[TBpup]

Olshey says he's making these moves outside of Free Agency and so far that seems to fit.

Henderson in - Afflalo out. That is likely the spot he would fill and if Matthews doesn't come back, it gives them a little bigger, more veteran SG and allows CJ to be instant offense off the bench where I think he fits much better then as a starter.

Plumlee in - Kaman out. Plumlee isn't the plan for a starting center but he gives the Blazers another big who is actually a center allowing Leonard to be the '4' or 4.5 as he calls it which seems better suited for him.

Vonleh in - Freeland out. Freeland was certainly more ready to play but Vonleh has the higher upside. Either way, neither was/is going to get major minutes so not a huge issue here.

Connaughton in - Blake out. By now we are talking about the #12 spot or so on the roster. I'll take the young athletic guy versus the warrior who just doesn't have anything left.

That leaves Batum for which they will have to fill. I agree with Wiz that the Blazers will miss some of his intangibles but his damned inconsistency or his almost abject refusal to attack the rim when he had one of the higher finishing rates was downright infuriating. So if he wasn't hitting his '3's, he would just disappear. His assists, outside of the Pick-n-Rolo were mostly flow of the offense, move the ball around the perimeter to the open guy. They weren't anything that really created opportunities as he was often just standing still and moved it to the next guy. Nice but hardly irreplaceable.

Now who are candidates you'd like to see to replace him?

[Blazinaway]

Thad Young played very well for Brooklyn when traded there last yr, he shot the ball well and is another athletic guy who could play well in "small ball" and is still only 27, seems like he's been around forever

[TBpup]

Sheridan Hoops gives the Blazers the Winning grade in both trades:

Trading Plumlee puts the Nets all in on impending free agent Brook Lopez, the best player on a team that barely made the playoffs and couldn’t get out of the first round. Hollis-Jefferson is the sort of Swiss Army knife that all teams covet, but how much will he play on a team overloaded with wings? And while Blake is a trusted veteran point guard, where does he play on a team with Deron Williams and Jarrett Jack? Finding a taker for Joe Johnson’s final year at nearly $25 million would help and is not impossible. The Blazers’ standpoint is a bit more understandable as Olshey continues to insure himself against free agency defections. Portland ended last season with starting bigs of Aldridge and Robin Lopez. They could begin next season with Leonard and Plumlee. WINNER: Blazers

Blazers GM Neil Olshey has a busy offseason on his hands, with four of his rotation players headed to free agency – led by All-Star forward LaMarcus Aldridge, who reportedly is leaning heavily toward leaving – and All-Star guard Damian Lillard eligible for a max extension. Henderson fortifies the wing position, which features free agents Wesley Matthews and Arron Afflalo. Vonleh is still a teenager who can develop behind Aldridge or Meyers Leonard. I’m not quite sure what Hornets GM Rich Cho is doing. He obviously likes Batum from his days in Portland, but Batum’s arrival appears to push small forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to shooting guard. Cho also traded Lance Stephenson for Spencer Hawes, a perimeter big, then drafted Frank Kaminsky, a perimeter big. There’s a lot of redundancy here. WINNER: Blazers

http://www.sheridanhoops.com/2015/06/26/bernucca-2015-nba-draft-trade-grades/

[Downtown]

Now who are candidates you'd like to see to replace him?

I think that is going to be the topic we discuss most over the next week waiting on free agency. We know there's a good number of high end small forward free agents but there's just as much competition for them so I think whoever Olshey gets is going to be overpaid. Supply and demand. You know the routine. Other than Aminu I can't see any "under the radar" guys that can step in and start.

I like TBpups analogy of how each guy slotted in as a replacement for the departing player. Other than Connaughton for Blake I can see it with the others. The toughest part is that all of ten are bench players. Getting starting caliber is going to be a lot harder.

[JasonStern]

it's all about perspective. if the same exact trade was made pre-draft, you're looking at:

Portland trades: #23, Steve Blake
Portland receives: Plumlee, #41

that's a good deal for Portland. they pick up a young proven center with Team USA experience that provides insurance in case a team overpays for Lopez, dump Blake's contract, and all it really costs them is moving down 18 spots in the draft from a late 1st to a mid 2nd.

but since the trade happened during the draft due to Portland being unable to trade the #23 pick until a selection was made, you're looking at:

Portland trades: Hollis-Jefferson, Steve Blake
Portland receives: Plumlee, Connaughton

suddenly, you're looking at it as Portland trading away a versatile but flawed young small forward immediately after trading away a versatile but flawed young small forward. and it seems bad because Hollis-Jefferson slid in the draft, making him viewed as a value pick. and then the 2nd is used on a spot-up shooter with questionable defensive abilities despite already having McCollum on the roster, recently trading for Henderson, and having the rights to Matthews and Afflalo.

I can see both sides, but I always remind myself that the Blazers made a trade with Billy King. if history is any indication, we likely won the trade.

[Billy]

I kind of view SF as a little less high on my list--which is maybe crazy. I really like Tobias Harris for SF -- but I really want Portland to stay away from RFA's this year. In year's past in which they had some cap space, but not necessarily a ton, taking a gamble on an RFA like Hibbert or Millsap made sense. That being said, the only real luck we've had on that front was the super front loaded contract for Wes and that was helped a lot by making the big offer to Millsap that Utah had to match a year prior.

If I can live in my fantasy world for a minute, I hope that either Aldridge stays or Portland replaces him with Love. From there, I really want to focus on either a DeAndre Jordan or possibly Roy Hibbert. Assuming Portland pays the max (or near max) for C and SF, that would allow them ~8 million in space to fill out the roster.

At this stage I might try to flirt with Harris, Middleton, or Butler if they are unsigned and begin dangling Vonleh/Leonard/Crabbe as S&T bait. I know that none of those guys are enticing as S&T bait per-say, but I would be assuming that in this case Portland is going after an RFA because there is a good chance and you already have someone in the fold. Aside from that, I would probably focus more on plugging holes similarly to how Olshey did it a few years back offering a couple smaller contracts. I would probably focus on guys like Aminu, Dunleavy, Omri Caspi, or Derick Williams to fill in the hole, with the plan of trying to go hard for a stud wing when the cap rises the following summer.

C. Jordan/Plumlee/Vonleh
F. Aldridge(Love)/Leonard
F. Caspi/Crabbe
G. Henderson/McCollum
G. Lillard/Frazier/Connaughton

[mojomarc]

I can see both sides, but I always remind myself that the Blazers made a trade with Billy King. if history is any indication, we likely won the trade.

This does put things nicely in perspective. Billy K. is bound to win one at some point, but it is hard to imagine this will be the one. I wanted to see Hollis-Jefferson (I think he'll be a good pro, especially if he can learn how to stand in a corner and somewhat reliably make threes a la Bruce Bowen), but Plumlee is a solid frontcourt edition who can add at both ends and has demonstrated that in the NBA.

Like Wiz, I think a lot of Batum's contributions don't show up reliably on the stat sheet. That said, when he was asked to be a higher usage player he frequently failed last season. Maybe it was the wrist, maybe he needs consistent usage to be better--I don't know. But there were times when he was a flat out negative on the court last year, and I've never been able to say that about Batum at any other point in his career. That kind of inconsistent contribution on the offensive end can be replaced for a lot less. His defense, and taking the burden off of Lillard, will be missed more. We'll have to see what Lillard's real commitment to defense is in the offseason, something Olshey is better able to assess than we are, looked like before we'll know how much we'll miss Batum.

[GreenRiddler]

I honestly liked both trades. We traded Batum who like you said is going to play well only to get a increase in salary and then go back to playing inconsistent. We will miss his passing and defense, but we got a lot of cap room to go after wings. The return we got was a guy in Hendo to replace AAA, as the starter, or a backup like AAA was suppose to be if Wes gets resign or we trade for another Starting 2/3 to have start ahead of Hendo. Plus we get a really good prospect who unlike Robinson never got any real mins at all because of and injury and being drafted by a team that just came from the POs and was looking to return. He may have the same path in the NBA as far as being traded after his rookie year like Robinson, but watch film on them and they aren't even remotely the same player, Maybe rebounding but that's it.

The thing I like about Vonleh is that he fits with or w/o LMA.

As for the other trade, Jason is right, if anyone said before the draft that Blake +23 = Plumlee and 41 people would've said that is unrealistic and that Brooklyn can get better than that.

I honestly don't know why people are so dramatic, we got better as a team from these trades if we can sign a decent SF.

[Dame Lizard]

If LMA leaves then the Plumlee trade isn't so great imo. If he stays though, then it could be a stroke of genius if we can sign another all star quality free agent given his savings vs Robin Lopez (no clue who though) as well as Wes. But that's a gigantic if though......

RHJ has a pretty giant flaw, however his defense and rebounding will be elite. During a rebuild, these are the kind of risks you take at #23. He's not just a good athlete and physical speciman, he is freakishly good.

Plumlee is solid, but nothing special enough for a rebuild. I'm thinking LMA might have given this trade the generic thumbs up (even though he's unsure about his destination), because if there's a great chance he leaves, Plumlee's potential is just not as high as RHJ's and the trade would be somewhat random imo. The Notre Dame kid looks like any other 2nd round pick really (kudos to him by being both MLB and NBA drafted though).

Edit: I'm liking the Notre Dame kid a lot more now, I thought he was a SF but he's a SG so has pretty decent measurements to go with the freak athleticism.

[Dame Lizard]

Quality small forward, please come our way!

[DusterBuster]

Great write-up TB! Echo's a lot of my thoughts. Although, while I tend to lean more with Wizen on the opinion of Batum meaning more to than team than what ppg he posts, I can fully understand fans frustration with seeing him disappear for great stretches. I also had the same frustrations of seeing him get beat up on the French national team every summer only to come into camp injured. All in all, I really didn't mind the trade. I've been intrigued by the scouting reports on Vonleh, he's insanely young at just 19 tho, so I don't expect him to be NBA ready next season.

I was fully fully on board with the Plumlee move. He averaged 9 and 6 in just 20 minutes and is only entering his 3rd season. You can get a young big man like that for, imo, very little, you do it. RHJ was the bpa when Portland picked him, so he wasn't a bad pick at all, but I'm never real high on defensive athletic SF's who can't shoot a lick. Those guys generally don't pan out. They be rotational guys, but usually will jump around the NBA. Getting a productive young 7 footer, you don't pass that up for a unproven rookie with serious NBA questions.

I think Olshey goes one of two ways this summer. He's gonna go for a big swing, without a doubt. Either keep Aldridge or try and woo the likes of Love, Jordan, etc. If he misses out on those guys, I think he'll fill the roster with clear contracts and any big deals will only be max 1 year contracts and then punts this summers cap space out til next season.