Demar Derozan Shot Type: Made, Missed, and Percentage 2014-2015

[torontosj]

I was just messing around with the NBA API and retrieved the shot chart dataset of Demar Derozan.

Here is the shot type distribution table ordered by total made baskets and its corresponding percentages. This is not meant to be a case for or an indictment against Demar Derozan. Just merely an observation of what type of shots he took last year and how often he made them.

I can make graphical shot charts of any player so I might be working on that in the next couple of days.

Not really sure how the shot type is determined. Might be synergy, might be SportsVU.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uAv18urINJyYkbHdmrqADumn_bZpKmpUa25yUpRMUvw/edit?usp=sharing

[firekil]

Less than 30% on jumpshots? Barf. Great job, would love to see a graphical breakdown if possible.

[Jonn]

Any smart front office would look at his advanced numbers and see the limited player he really is. As soon as his athleticism is diminished hes going to be a player at the end of the bench his early 30's. He reminds me so much of Corey Maggette its scary.

[DarkKnight]

Corey was a 57.7% career TS% guy. Demar is at 52.4 and seemingly dropping. Demar has a LONG way to go before he's Corey Maggette.

The better comp is sitting on the Raps bench - Jerry Stackhouse. He has the EXACT same TS% (52.4) and was a big-time FT shooter in his younger days.

[Rapcity_11]

On a related note, give this a read:

http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2015/10/15/piss-poor-shot-selection/

[pbj]

On a related note, give this a read:

http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2015/10/15/piss-poor-shot-selection/

Most good players don’t often choose to take PIS. James Harden had a PISS of 10%, Steph Curry had a PISS of 8.5%, LeBron James had a PISS of 8.2%, Manu Ginobili had a PISS of 5.4%, and Demarre Carroll had a PISS of 2.7%.

If it were a contest, DeMar DeRozan would be the PISS champ.

DeRozan had a PISS of 31.6%. Nearly a third of his 850 shots with at least 5 seconds on the shot clock were PIS.

DeRozan shot an atrocious 33.5% on PIS. That equates to 0.67 points per shot. In all of his 2014-15 FGA, DeRozan scored 0.85 points per shot. If he simply removed those 269 PIS (kicked out instead of forcing a bad shot), he would have raised his efficiency to 0.92 points per shot on the season.

DeRozan’s team would have appreciated the kick outs. His team produced 1.02 points per shot. If his team kept that efficiency on kick outs that replaced DeRozan’s 269 PIS, the team would have scored another 93 points in DeRozan’s 60 games.

DeRozan’s PISS of 31.6% in 2014-15 was up from 26.2% the previous season. As the influence of analytics in the NBA grows, we might expect players’ PISS to decrease. In time, it probably will. In fact, DeRozan might be one of the last of a dying breed. Players that depend on PIS as significant portions of their offense were the norm in the 80s and 90s. In 5-10 years, they will likely be extinct.

[tsherkin]

On a related note, give this a read:

http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2015/10/15/piss-poor-shot-selection/

Yeah, that was a strong read. Confirmed what we already knew, but great read. Appreciated the nod to time-on-clock, which is often not acknowledged in shot selection discussions.

Also, for anyone looking, the list of links on the side menu of that page is extraordinarily useful as you dip into understanding what analytics REALLY means.

[UneducatedFan86]

Great breakdown OP. With your spreadsheet and the link from Rapcity_11, it really reinforces what many already know about Demar. It's kind of frustrating that our FO says they pride themselves on being at least analytically knowledgeable, but still allow Derozan to be such an analytical poor player. It's clearly not just about the 3 ball anymore. His whole offensive game seems pretty flawed.

Sadly though, there are always going to be people who clamor to the fact that this team 'needs' Demar and that his positives outweigh his negatives. I don't think Demar is necessarily a bad player. I just think he's been thrust into a role that doesn't fit the player he should be. He shouldn't be that main guy. The issue is, the minute that Demar isn't given the amount of freedom/shots he is given, is the minute that his whole value goes down the drain. He is a product of this teams need for a 'star' and a team needing a face to the franchise.

[Rapcity_11]

Great breakdown OP. With your spreadsheet and the link from Rapcity_11, it really reinforces what many already know about Demar. It's kind of frustrating that our FO says they pride themselves on being at least analytically knowledgeable, but still allow Derozan to be such an analytical poor player. It's clearly not just about the 3 ball anymore. His whole offensive game seems pretty flawed.

Sadly though, there are always going to be people who clamor to the fact that this team 'needs' Demar and that his positives outweigh his negatives. I don't think Demar is necessarily a bad player. I just think he's been thrust into a role that doesn't fit the player he should be. He shouldn't be that main guy. The issue is, the minute that Demar isn't given the amount of freedom/shots he is given, is the minute that his whole value goes down the drain. He is a product of this teams need for a 'star' and a team needing a face to the franchise.

I feel like historically DD's usage has exceeded what would be optimal for the Raptors.

But this year, with all the low usage players the Raptors have, DD's usage will be justifiable. Unfortunate, but true.

And when DD and/or KL get hurt, it's gonna get weird in terms of usage for other guys.

[tsherkin]

I feel like historically DD's usage has exceeded what would be optimal for the Raptors.

But this year, with all the low usage players the Raptors have, DD's usage will be justifiable. Unfortunate, but true.

And when DD and/or KL get hurt, it's gonna get weird in terms of usage for other guys.

What this really means is that we should be running more of a structured offense that takes the ball out of DeRozan's hands and puts him in position to score on plays where he can actually make a difference in a positive way on offense, while doing the same for others. We're going to miss Lou this year, and badly.

[torontosj]

Great breakdown OP. ...

I would hardly call it a breakdown. In hindsight, I sort of regret posting the table without proper context as it pertains to some of the league average percentage for those types of shots by either position, shot distance, or some combination of the two. But I know how much contention there seems to be about Demar so I thought it would be interesting to look at.

What I did find to be surprising is the low number of dunks and tip ins. I would have surely guessed that the numbers would have been higher.

But personally, I'm really torn on the issue of Demar's relative value in the NBA landscape. I've always been a fan of his attitude and enjoyed watching him grow as a player over the years. I haven't looked at the stats too deeply, but I've always thought that its really hard to quantify the value of making your opponent rack up fouls and go into the penalty. And if Demar does have an elite skill it is probably his ft attempts + conversion rate as he ranked 5th in attempts per game with a very respectable 83 percent conversion rate. On the other hand, he does take a lot of shots which the analytic vanguards would consider to be sub-optimal or negative equity.

Time will tell if he will continue to be a Raptor.

I can make the same table for any other NBA player if anyone has any requests. The only other players I've looked up were Steph Curry for his shot chart and Andrew Wiggins on the same table. I have some other projects that require my time but I would be happy to explore any new extrapolations or comparisons through the NBA stats api.

[Patman]

I feel like historically DD's usage has exceeded what would be optimal for the Raptors.

But this year, with all the low usage players the Raptors have, DD's usage will be justifiable. Unfortunate, but true.

And when DD and/or KL get hurt, it's gonna get weird in terms of usage for other guys.

What this really means is that we should be running more of a structured offense that takes the ball out of DeRozan's hands and puts him in position to score on plays where he can actually make a difference in a positive way on offense, while doing the same for others. We're going to miss Lou this year, and badly.

I think a combination of both is the best approach considering our roster. It's not the IDEAL approach, but given who we have, it could be the way to go. So Kyle and DD will obviously be our highest USG% guys. When the ball is in Kyle's hands, we can run more read-and-react stuff. When we want to give it to DeMar, it's in a set play, where we can hide his lack of creativity.

[tsherkin]

I think a combination of both is the best approach considering our roster. It's not the IDEAL approach, but given who we have, it could be the way to go. So Kyle and DD will obviously be our highest USG% guys. When the ball is in Kyle's hands, we can run more read-and-react stuff. When we want to give it to DeMar, it's in a set play, where we can hide his lack of creativity.

This is why I said "more" and not "entirely."

He wouldn't generate FTAs out of sets for catch-and-shoot out of pin-down, of course, and we do need sets involving ball-handling which aren't Lowry. Obviously, we've got some young cats to try out, but DeRozan will get a few of those as well.

But we could really use less of his isos for PISS and more of him getting passing support to increase the odds of him hitting his shots at a more favorable rate.

[hsb]

Move JV to number two on the offensive hierarchy. It's should happen eventually. After Eurobasket, I wouldn't mind that happening now. Focus DD's offense a little more which will in turn, might help his efficiency.

[tsherkin]

Move JV to number two on the offensive hierarchy. It's should happen eventually. After Eurobasket, I wouldn't mind that happening now. Focus DD's offense a little more which will in turn, might help his efficiency.

We can try it provisionally, but we need to see that he's quicker on the uptake with defensive rotations and that he both can and will deliver the pass in an expedient manner when it is appropriate. That's one of the greatest problems with post offense in general: if the guy isn't a fluid passer, it really limits the value of post possessions. JV, charitably, isn't the most awesome passer from the block.

[Arman_tanzarian]

Great work OP and @Rapcity_11, I skimmed through that article last week and for the life of me could not find it again. Thanks for the share, it's super informative and funny (PISS).

[hsb]

Move JV to number two on the offensive hierarchy. It's should happen eventually. After Eurobasket, I wouldn't mind that happening now. Focus DD's offense a little more which will in turn, might help his efficiency.

We can try it provisionally, but we need to see that he's quicker on the uptake with defensive rotations and that he both can and will deliver the pass in an expedient manner when it is appropriate. That's one of the greatest problems with post offense in general: if the guy isn't a fluid passer, it really limits the value of post possessions. JV, charitably, isn't the most awesome passer from the block.

Devil that you know versus the devil you don't. In this case, might be better for both players; for JV to learn to operate beyond scoring with an increase in post touches and to simplify the game for DD where he can focus on specific opportunities rather than a free rein of sorts.

[cammac]

I think the front office is very well aware of DeMar's assets & liabilities simply because Masai is very analytical in his approach to the game. I can see DeMar's shooting diminished this year from about 20 touches a game which includes him going to the line from fouls. I can see him limited to 15 to 16 touches including fouls putting up .460 FG % with 4.5APG, 4.5 RPG, 1.5 SPG with decent defense.

He isn't needed to carry the load Carroll will get 13.5 touches, Jonas will get about the same number of touches & Lowry 15 touches per game with whomever plays PF basically a situational player.

[Hero]

Some troubling information indeed. It is a contract year so you would hope that Derozan and his agent will wise up.

Isn't he better at corner threes? Maybe rework the schemes and spacing to make use of that.

He is a limited player no doubt but it's not his fault that the team lacks talent. Give him a good number 1 option to play 2nd fiddle to and he would look so much better.

[JWiLL02]

Well, I guess if a British fan were to ask DeMar "You takin' the piss mate?" we'd know that yes, he is. More than anyone ever should.