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Edited: Bucks Final Draft Lottery Odds

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Post#1 Edited: Bucks Final Draft Lottery Odds
Thu Apr 10, 2008 1:59 am by SlideRuleJockey

The Bucks own the 7th Seed in the NBA Draft Lottery.

The odds listed in the first column are the Buck's actual odds this year, while the odds in the right column would have been their odds had the Clippers and Knicks, as well as the Grizlies and T-Wolves not ended up with identical records.

Ties amongst other Lottery Teams cause a redistribution of combinations, but even so, only slightly affect the odds of the other teams.

Without further ado.....

Pick #1: 4.300000% 4.300000%
Pick #2: 4.933581% 4.939865%
Pick #3: 5.768725% 5.787509%
Pick #7: 59.995381% 59.927828%
Pick #8: 23.181910% 23.221623%
Pick #9: 1.791808% 1.794580%
Pick #10: 0.028595% 0.028595%


Bottom Line:

Bucks move up to spots 1-3: ~15% :pray:
Bucks stay at the 7 spot: ~60% :roll:
Bucks move down to 8-10: ~25% :banghead:
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Post#2
Thu Apr 10, 2008 2:06 am by Fort Minor

15%? That's a lot better than I thought.
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Post#3
Thu Apr 10, 2008 2:13 am by ReddManBogieMan

Hey thanks for posting this. I was just wondering about this.

Why isn't there any probablity for picks 4,5,&6? If you could further explain this to us that would be great. I don't understand why we are stuck at 7, but can get 1-3 or fall 8-10. Since you have the knowledge it would be insightfull to know more details. Thanks.
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Post#4
Thu Apr 10, 2008 2:16 am by worthlessBucks

ReddManBogieMan wrote:Hey thanks for posting this. I was just wondering about this.

Why isn't there any probablity for picks 4,5,&6? If you could further explain this to us that would be great. I don't understand why we are stuck at 7, but can get 1-3 or fall 8-10. Since you have the knowledge it would be insightfull to know more details. Thanks.

The lottery is only for the first 3 spots, after that it's distributed by record.

Orlando won the lottery with 1 ball in the hopper (old school lottery), anything is possible!
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Post#5
Thu Apr 10, 2008 2:47 am by ReddManBogieMan

MFScho wrote:-= original quote snipped =-


The lottery is only for the first 3 spots, after that it's distributed by record.

Orlando won the lottery with 1 ball in the hopper (old school lottery), anything is possible!


Why is it that last year the picks started at 14, and worked their way to one? If it was done the way you state shouldn't they just start at #3 during the lottery and do the top three, and then the rest fall into place record wise? Again thanks for clarifying this.
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Post#6
Thu Apr 10, 2008 2:56 am by worthlessBucks

ReddManBogieMan wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Why is it that last year the picks started at 14, and worked their way to one? If it was done the way you state shouldn't they just start at #3 during the lottery and do the top three, and then the rest fall into place record wise? Again thanks for clarifying this.

That's more for the suspense of TV, the viewer gets to experience the excitement/shock value of seeing a team move up in the top 3. For example the Bucks in 2005 had the sixth worst record, but once the sixth team was revealed to be the Jazz, the viewer knew right away the Bucks were in the top 3.
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Post#7
Thu Apr 10, 2008 3:19 am by ReddManBogieMan

MFScho wrote:-= original quote snipped =-


That's more for the suspense of TV, the viewer gets to experience the excitement/shock value of seeing a team move up in the top 3. For example the Bucks in 2005 had the sixth worst record, but once the sixth team was revealed to be the Jazz, the viewer knew right away the Bucks were in the top 3.


So this year if we aren't called at #7, we know we are at least #3. Interesting. Thank you for going into detail for me. :)


Another question, if teams tied above the bucks how would that hurt our odds.
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Post#8
Thu Apr 10, 2008 3:30 am by emunney

If teams tie above or below the Bucks, our odds stay exactly the same. If we tie with a team, we split the difference between the two slots.
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Post#9
Thu Apr 10, 2008 3:35 am by SlideRuleJockey

As I said, if there are ties, the odds will only change very slightly.

This year, the most likely tie to happen AHEAD of the Bucks would be Minnesota and Seatle at spots two and three. Lets assume this happens.

The #2 seed normally would get 199 of the 1000 combinations, and the #3 seed would normally get 156 combinations. In this scenario, the #2 seed would be assigned 178 combinations, and the #3 seed would be assigned 177 combinations.

The NBA would have a draw to determine which team gets which seed, but that is not important for the Bucks. In this scenario, the Bucks odds as the #7 seed would change (slightly) to:

Pick #1: 4.300000%
Pick #2: 4.932720%
Pick #3: 5.769269%
Pick #7: 59.995144%
Pick #8: 23.183068%
Pick #9: 1.791204%
Pick #10: 0.028595%

Just an FYI, the Bucks odds for Pick #1 are fixed, and would only change if they either moved out of the #7 seed, or if they somehow were to tie the Clippers for the #6 seed. Don't hold your breath on either.

So not much really. Charlotte and Chicago are also neck and neck. But like I said, the odds will only change by fractions of a percent.

I hope this helps.
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Post#10
Thu Apr 10, 2008 3:36 am by ReddManBogieMan

Thanks emunney

I wonder who the bucks will choose to be there during the lottery. Now that Harris is gone either we have a new GM in place by May 20 or we let Kohl or a player sit-in. I think Andrew Bogut should be our representative like Brandon Roy was last year for the Blazers.
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Post#11
Thu Apr 10, 2008 3:40 am by SlideRuleJockey

emunney wrote:If teams tie above or below the Bucks, our odds stay exactly the same. If we tie with a team, we split the difference between the two slots.


NOT TRUE!!

The odds will alwyas remain the same for the first pick only regardless to ties ahead of or behind your seed. Obviously the odds would change radically only if you tie someone, but that is not likely at all for the Bucks this year.

After the first pick, ties DO affect the odds, but as I have said all along, only slightly.
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Post#12
Thu Apr 10, 2008 3:43 am by ReddManBogieMan

SlideRuleJockey wrote:As I said, if there are ties, the odds will only change very slightly.

This year, the most likely tie to happen AHEAD of the Bucks would be Minnesota and Seatle at spots two and three. Lets assume this happens.

The #2 seed normally would get 199 of the 1000 combinations, and the #3 seed would normally get 156 combinations. In this scenario, the #2 seed would be assigned 178 combinations, and the #3 seed would be assigned 177 combinations.

The NBA would have a draw to determine which team gets which seed, but that is not important for the Bucks. In this scenario, the Bucks odds as the #7 seed would change (slightly) to:

Pick #1: 4.300000%
Pick #2: 4.932720%
Pick #3: 5.769269%
Pick #7: 59.995144%
Pick #8: 23.183068%
Pick #9: 1.791204%
Pick #10: 0.028595%

Just an FYI, the Bucks odds for Pick #1 are fixed, and would only change if they either moved out of the #7 seed, or if they somehow were to tie the Clippers for the #6 seed. Don't hold your breath on either.

So not much really. Charlotte and Chicago are also neck and neck. But like I said, the odds will only change by fractions of a percent.

I hope this helps.


It helped a lot. Thanks for everything that you posted.

By the way, I was just viewing this site about the 2005 Draft and it had an interesting part in it

all they needed was four numbers (5-7-10-14) to win the NBA 2005 Draft Lottery.


If you have any idea what that means could someone explain please. This process has got me all intrigued.



http://www.nba.com/features/lottery2005_index.html
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Post#13
Thu Apr 10, 2008 3:48 am by worthlessBucks

ReddManBogieMan wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



If you have any idea what that means could someone explain please. This process has got me all intrigued.



http://www.nba.com/features/lottery2005_index.html

I could explain it, but it's all pretty in depth right here. (Under Process heading)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

I mean really, Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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Post#14
Thu Apr 10, 2008 3:52 am by emunney

I stand corrected. The Bucks have just as many chances, but ties would result in more or fewer combinations being eliminated from the drawing in the instance that one of the tying teams won the first or 2nd pick, thus altering the odds by a few hundredths of a percent. Still, it's a minute difference, on the order of 1/10,000.
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Post#15
Thu Apr 10, 2008 7:59 am by paulpressey25

SlideRule...thanks for this post.

I'd suggest to everyone you bookmark this thread since we'll be referring back to it a ton over the next seven weeks.
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Post#16
Thu Apr 10, 2008 8:00 am by smauss

MFScho wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

I mean really, Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.


:o Sarcasm, I hope?
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Post#17
Thu Apr 10, 2008 8:11 am by adamcz

SlideRule, I was looking for these odds the other day and couldn't find them anywhere. Where did you find how many combos are assigned to each team? I was only able to find combos assigned in specific prior years, and they included ties.

Thanks for making this thread.
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Post#18
Thu Apr 10, 2008 8:43 am by SlideRuleJockey

adamcz wrote:Where did you find how many combos are assigned to each team?

Thanks for making this thread.


For one, try: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

But there are a lot of sources that will confirm these numbers.

1. 250 combinations, 25% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance


You are welcome.
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Post#19
Thu Apr 10, 2008 8:50 am by SlideRuleJockey

Duplicate post. Sorry
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Post#20
Thu Apr 10, 2008 9:17 am by adamcz

By the way, 28 posts in 3 years? Does that mean we'll have to wait several months for the sequel to this thread?
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