Statistical Analysis

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Global Announcement Longtime RealGM Moderator Dharam Raghubir (A.K.A. Magnumt) Has Passed Away

Last post by Yin Porzingod « Thu Aug 1, 2019 2:55 am
Posted in Global Announcements
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by Howard Mass » Sun May 12, 2019 11:06 am » in Global Announcements

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RealGM Users and Moderators,

I have some very sad and heartbreaking news to share.

I just received the news very early this morning that longtime...

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RIP :beer:
200 +1 Replies

9,172 Views

Last post by Yin Porzingod View the latest post
Thu Aug 1, 2019 2:55 am
Announcement Welcome To The New Statistical Analysis Forum

Last post by Charley11 « Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:50 am
Replies: 2 +1
by Howard Mass » Mon Nov 2, 2009 5:51 am

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I would like to welcome everyone to our newest forum here on RealGM.

The Statistical Analysis forum will be a place for users to crunch numbers,...

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Hello! The idea is really good! Thank you!

2 +1 Replies

3,581 Views

Last post by Charley11 View the latest post
Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:50 am

Topics

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BPM vs RPM predictions

Last post by Saints14 « Mon Oct 16, 2017 1:00 pm
Replies: 3 +1
by floppymoose » Mon Sep 25, 2017 4:44 am

First post

538 posted this:

BPM vs. RPM, revisited, again

We were fairly pleased with how our CARMELO player projections performed last year, with the...

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BPM is the best all-in-one, box-score metric based stat available IMO. I like it and use it to get a quick and dirty look at guys who don't have...

3 +1 Replies

113 Views

Last post by Saints14 View the latest post
Mon Oct 16, 2017 1:00 pm
Betting

Last post by gimligreenjr « Mon Oct 2, 2017 9:01 pm

by gimligreenjr » Mon Oct 2, 2017 9:01 pm

Any good sites or programs for betting on how many points will player score?

0 Replies

23 Views

Last post by gimligreenjr View the latest post
Mon Oct 2, 2017 9:01 pm
Please Explain VORP

Last post by KqWIN « Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:33 am
Replies: 12 +1
by Curmudgeon » Sun Jun 25, 2017 1:56 am

First post

Can someone explain to me in layman's terms how VORP works in basketball?
I understand that it takes box score plus minus (BPM), which is how the...

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I'm guessing Bradley excels at guarding PGs but is low key bad against SGs. He is basically a SG on offense but a PG on defense. I would be...

12 +1 Replies

261 Views

Last post by KqWIN View the latest post
Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:33 am
Formula for value as a playmaker with some results

Last post by Lou Fan « Sat Sep 9, 2017 3:03 am
Replies: 2 +1
by Lou Fan » Thu Sep 7, 2017 4:41 am

First post

(((((a * 1.98 / 100.0) + usg) ** 0.5) ** -1.0) * (((ast / tov) * 0.8) + a * 0.2) * ((mpg + 72.0) / 120.0))
a= assists per 100
usg= usage rate
ast=...

Last post

(((((a * 1.98 / 100.0) + usg) ** 0.5) ** -1.0) * (((ast / tov) * 0.8) + a * 0.2) * ((mpg + 72.0) / 120.0))
a= assists per 100
usg= usage rate
ast=...

2 +1 Replies

39 Views

Last post by Lou Fan View the latest post
Sat Sep 9, 2017 3:03 am
Gamescore data

Last post by dhsilv2 « Tue Sep 5, 2017 4:46 am

by dhsilv2 » Tue Sep 5, 2017 4:46 am

This is likely a hopeless ask but figured I'd give it a go. I'm wanting to play around with the idea that some players are more...

0 Replies

21 Views

Last post by dhsilv2 View the latest post
Tue Sep 5, 2017 4:46 am
Help calculating BPM

Last post by KqWIN « Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:34 pm
Replies: 1 +1
by Mowmow2k » Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:24 pm

First post

Can anyone on here help me calculate BPM? Personally, don't feel like I fully understand it, so it's giving me trouble.

Last post

BPM is an OLS regression using RAPM as the dependent variable and "Advanced Box Measures" as the explanatory measures.

1 +1 Replies

42 Views

Last post by KqWIN View the latest post
Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:34 pm
Player similarity CARMELO 538 system - can someone reproduce it?

Last post by NormanDale « Sat Aug 26, 2017 5:58 pm
Replies: 5 +1
by deckoff » Tue Mar 28, 2017 7:48 pm

First post

Hello everyone.
This is my first post.
I am a great fan of 538's CARMELO system for evaluating players and teams.
I want to reproduce the finding...

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Thank you for that. I have a few follow up questions, but I'll ask later when I'm using my computer and not my phone.

5 +1 Replies

96 Views

Last post by NormanDale View the latest post
Sat Aug 26, 2017 5:58 pm
NBA Analytics Podcast

Last post by OGProcessor « Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:57 pm
Replies: 1 +1
by EricSidewater » Sat Aug 19, 2017 3:28 pm

First post

Head over to for Episode #1 and other Sixers-goodies.

In Episode #2, we bring on NBA Salary Cap Guru Jeff Siegel to dive into the Sixers cap...

Last post

Excited to listen to this! Good luck!

1 +1 Replies

32 Views

Last post by OGProcessor View the latest post
Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:57 pm
Help me create a modern formula for evaluating players.

Last post by dhsilv2 « Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:58 pm
Replies: 11 +1
by getrichordie » Sun Jun 4, 2017 7:23 pm

First post

I personally think that stats such as PER/RPM isn't close to being accurate and only tells a portion of a player's story.

I'm wanting to start a...

Last post

I personally think that stats such as PER/RPM isn't close to being accurate and only tells a portion of a player's story.

I'm wanting to start a...

11 +1 Replies

199 Views

Last post by dhsilv2 View the latest post
Sun Aug 13, 2017 8:58 pm
End of Quarter Efficiency/Time out Efficiency

Last post by NuggetsWY « Sun Jul 30, 2017 1:43 am

by NuggetsWY » Sun Jul 30, 2017 1:43 am

Is there anywhere that tracks the efficiency of teams at the end of quarters and/or plays after a time out?

0 Replies

16 Views

Last post by NuggetsWY View the latest post
Sun Jul 30, 2017 1:43 am
Indianapolis Stat Job

Last post by BleuBlanc « Thu Jul 6, 2017 7:50 pm

by BleuBlanc » Thu Jul 6, 2017 7:50 pm

Wondering if anyone in the Indianapolis area is interested in doing stats for some games for the Adidas Tournament July 12-16. U17 Male Division....

0 Replies

32 Views

Last post by BleuBlanc View the latest post
Thu Jul 6, 2017 7:50 pm
Need your help: compiling data to predict a draftee's career VORP

Last post by aaron_gray « Sat Jun 10, 2017 2:43 pm
Replies: 2 +1
by ForeverTFC » Wed May 31, 2017 4:50 am

First post

Hi all,

Working on a project to see if there is a way to predict a drafted player's VORP based on a few factors, namely: Past success, potential,...

Last post

On a similar note, the player season finder on sports-reference cbb doesn't seem to work for advanced stats that can go negative. Whenever I want to...

2 +1 Replies

43 Views

Last post by aaron_gray View the latest post
Sat Jun 10, 2017 2:43 pm
Podcast with Dean Oliver

Last post by eelr « Thu Jun 1, 2017 10:27 pm

by eelr » Thu Jun 1, 2017 10:27 pm

0 Replies

35 Views

Last post by eelr View the latest post
Thu Jun 1, 2017 10:27 pm
Can someone help me understand Elgee's SRS championship odds/expected championships?

Last post by micahclay « Tue May 23, 2017 9:46 pm

by micahclay » Tue May 23, 2017 9:46 pm

I've seen the thread, but I'm not sure:

1) What numbers to actually use (like the percentages by SRS based on high/normal/low portability)

2) How...

0 Replies

34 Views

Last post by micahclay View the latest post
Tue May 23, 2017 9:46 pm
Hustle Stats in Graph

Last post by preldzic « Tue May 23, 2017 9:45 am
Replies: 6 +1
by oken » Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:31 pm

First post

NBA is releasing hustle stats for players now and from those stats I prepared a graph of some teams for people interested in those kind of details....

Last post

NBA is releasing hustle stats for players now and from those stats I prepared a graph of some teams for people interested in those kind of details....

6 +1 Replies

109 Views

Last post by preldzic View the latest post
Tue May 23, 2017 9:45 am
We need an advanced stat to measure Defensive Pressure

Last post by BdeRegt « Fri May 12, 2017 3:12 am
Replies: 1 +1
by LakerLegend » Tue May 9, 2017 11:51 pm

First post

Something that will help us differentiate the pressure that say, a Westbrook gets on OKC vs. a Durant on GS.

Last post

There is starting to be some measures of this with SportVU data measuring shooting percentages of open vs contested shots. I still think the stats...

1 +1 Replies

64 Views

Last post by BdeRegt View the latest post
Fri May 12, 2017 3:12 am
Ranking Draft Prospects Statistically

Last post by BeibsInTheTrap « Tue May 9, 2017 6:00 pm

by BeibsInTheTrap » Tue May 9, 2017 6:00 pm

In general, scouts use the eye test more so than statistics to determine where a player is drafted. However, how would I go about predicting the...

0 Replies

36 Views

Last post by BeibsInTheTrap View the latest post
Tue May 9, 2017 6:00 pm
Efficiency Index (EFF TOP200) for NBA rookies and sophomores since 1996/97 season

Last post by SkyHookFTW « Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:38 pm
Replies: 2 +1
by THE J0KER » Thu Apr 13, 2017 1:58 pm

2 +1 Replies

104 Views

Last post by SkyHookFTW View the latest post
Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:38 pm
Triangle vs. Motion offense

Last post by koogiking « Sun Apr 30, 2017 3:29 pm
Replies: 1 +1
by Daddy 801 » Thu Apr 27, 2017 8:16 pm

First post

If this is not the right area feel free to move this moderators. It felt like the best spot.

For those who are X and O geeks (that is a compliment)...

Last post

The triangle offense is a motion offense

1 +1 Replies

60 Views

Last post by koogiking View the latest post
Sun Apr 30, 2017 3:29 pm
Evaluating Every Player's Trade Value

Last post by BdeRegt « Tue Apr 25, 2017 5:27 am
Replies: 4 +1
by Cormag001 » Tue Feb 21, 2017 6:43 pm

First post

Introduction:
So as I have been exploring RealGM's trade and transaction board (as well as playing GMAT), I've been experimenting with a way to...

Last post

It is interesting. I agree with micahclay that seems to undervalue upside. This brings the interesting idea in trades that each team does not have...

4 +1 Replies

93 Views

Last post by BdeRegt View the latest post
Tue Apr 25, 2017 5:27 am
Can someone help me with plus/minus statistics?

Last post by blabla « Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:28 am
Replies: 2 +1
by micahclay » Tue Apr 11, 2017 9:51 pm

First post

I kinda understand the general idea, but not really. Could someone link me some articles or threads (or just explain here) the pros/cons of them?...

Last post

It's also explained in this book
but that's obviously not for free (but has some other good information)

2 +1 Replies

52 Views

Last post by blabla View the latest post
Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:28 am
How far back (year-wise) does RAPM go?

Last post by micahclay « Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:26 am
Replies: 3 +1
by micahclay » Sat Apr 15, 2017 1:07 am

First post

What is the best place/most consistent for NPI/PI RAPM? Is there a website/link?

Last post

What is the best place/most consistent for NPI/PI RAPM? Is there a website/link?

Single Year NPI RAPM

Sinle Year PI RAPM

1998 RAPM

1999...

3 +1 Replies

145 Views

Last post by micahclay View the latest post
Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:26 am
How often does ESPN update RPM?

Last post by andyhop « Sat Apr 1, 2017 4:28 am
Replies: 13 +1
by Sixerscan » Wed Mar 22, 2017 6:03 pm

First post

I know it says that it updates every 3 hours during the west coast business day, but I've noticed that guys' RPM will stay the same for like a week...

Last post

For the remainder of the season, RPM will be updated on Thursdays

Which is pretty ridiculous given that it would be simple for them to update it...

13 +1 Replies

104 Views

Last post by andyhop View the latest post
Sat Apr 1, 2017 4:28 am
possession stats?

Last post by anothermagicfan « Sun Mar 26, 2017 1:59 am

by anothermagicfan » Sun Mar 26, 2017 1:59 am

I am curious, does anyone know of a stat that exists that showcases a players possessions created versus possessions lost?

0 Replies

15 Views

Last post by anothermagicfan View the latest post
Sun Mar 26, 2017 1:59 am
Free throw defense

Last post by blabla « Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:31 pm
Replies: 1 +1
by Fencer reregistered » Sat Mar 18, 2017 7:27 pm

First post

Here's a minor/loopy/fun subject:

One would expect FT% against to be pretty random as team stat, except perhaps for very small differences based on...

Last post

It is definitely random when you look at players on their own, e.g. Drummond may hit 4/4 one day, 0/4 the next
But I'm sure some teams are fouling...

1 +1 Replies

30 Views

Last post by blabla View the latest post
Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:31 pm

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