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Announcement Welcome To The New Statistical Analysis Forum

Last post by KPT1867 « Tue Oct 26, 2021 8:34 pm
Replies: 3 +1
by Howard Mass » Mon Nov 2, 2009 5:51 am

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I would like to welcome everyone to our newest forum here on RealGM.

The Statistical Analysis forum will be a place for users to crunch numbers,...

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Awesome! I love this idea

3 +1 Replies

3,613 Views

Last post by KPT1867 View the latest post
Tue Oct 26, 2021 8:34 pm

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USG%... How accurate is it?

Last post by Chosen01 « Fri May 6, 2011 10:25 pm
Replies: 39 +1
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by italianleather » Thu Mar 10, 2011 7:11 am

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Currently USG% does not factor in assist. Personally, I think it does not accurately represent the whole picture.

For instance this year, Rondo has...

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Its a useful stat but its just the way people perceive it as a measure of ball dominance when it's not.
39 +1 Replies

2,696 Views

Last post by Chosen01 View the latest post
Fri May 6, 2011 10:25 pm
Howard is the DPOY, but he

Last post by EvanZ « Fri May 6, 2011 9:32 pm
Replies: 25 +1
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by Doctor MJ » Sat Apr 23, 2011 7:19 am

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I wrote this piece on my blog Howard is the DPOY, but he's no Garnett .

I talk about various points in it, including making the connection between...

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So by position, KG has the highest ownage rating in the league? Lol, I like that term.

Well, the lowest ownage, to be precise.
25 +1 Replies

1,575 Views

Last post by EvanZ View the latest post
Fri May 6, 2011 9:32 pm
C/D: TS% & FGA are poor metrics for measuring efficency

Last post by EvanZ « Fri May 6, 2011 3:19 pm
Replies: 30 +1
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by azuresou1 » Thu Mar 3, 2011 4:25 pm

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The intention of TS% is to show how efficient a player is at scoring. To do this, FTAs get weighted at .44 FGA. This means that an And-1 counts as...

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I define OEFF (offensive efficiency) as follows:

OEFF = 100*OFF/PU

where

OFF =...
30 +1 Replies

1,395 Views

Last post by EvanZ View the latest post
Fri May 6, 2011 3:19 pm
Why I'm not a WP fan

Last post by Idunkon1stdates « Mon May 2, 2011 9:53 pm
Replies: 208 +1
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by floppymoose » Sun Jul 18, 2010 1:53 am

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WP = Wins Produced, as per the book Wages of Wins and the associated website

Those who have discussed nba stat with me before will know I'm much...

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yeah, 'unaffected' was clearly inaccurate. he was still a good rebounder alongside randolph, though. this was his worst season by far in terms of...
208 +1 Replies

8,843 Views

Last post by Idunkon1stdates View the latest post
Mon May 2, 2011 9:53 pm
Where do you find adjusted Plus minus?

Last post by Doctor MJ « Wed Apr 27, 2011 9:37 pm
Replies: 1 +1
by sicknastydunker » Wed Apr 27, 2011 6:53 pm

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where?

Last post

There.

1 +1 Replies

302 Views

Last post by Doctor MJ View the latest post
Wed Apr 27, 2011 9:37 pm
Close game win%

Last post by turk3d « Wed Apr 27, 2011 10:12 am
Replies: 3 +1
by mopper8 » Wed Apr 20, 2011 7:47 pm

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Back in march, Neil Paine wrote:

Although APBRmetrics teaches us that all teams' records in close games regress toward .500 , at a certain point...

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What I'd be interested in seeing is overall team rankings which I believe would correlate to coaching effectiveness. I believe you'd find that the...

3 +1 Replies

366 Views

Last post by turk3d View the latest post
Wed Apr 27, 2011 10:12 am
DPOY Shares 1985-2010

Last post by Optimism Prime « Fri Apr 22, 2011 4:01 am
Replies: 5 +1
by Optimism Prime » Wed Apr 20, 2011 12:32 am

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A post on the Rockets board led to this; wondered how many DPOY shares Olajuwon had. So, without further ado, the top 30 in DPOY shares (not...

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Very cool OP. I was just thinking b-r.com should have this information tallied.

They really should. Same with Defensive and All-NBA team votes....

5 +1 Replies

458 Views

Last post by Optimism Prime View the latest post
Fri Apr 22, 2011 4:01 am
Study: NBA refs are biased towards home teams, underdogs

Last post by floppymoose « Mon Apr 18, 2011 7:12 am
Replies: 7 +1
by mopper8 » Thu Apr 14, 2011 4:30 am

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Blog post over at The New Republic: (emphasis mine)

At The Study, though, we prefer our evidence in academic form, so we ask: are pro basketball...

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Some players have career home/away shooting % splits that suggest they shoot better in the home court. While I can't prove this isn't a side effect...

7 +1 Replies

608 Views

Last post by floppymoose View the latest post
Mon Apr 18, 2011 7:12 am
OEFF off opponent misses vs opponent makes?

Last post by floppymoose « Mon Apr 18, 2011 3:20 am
Replies: 5 +1
by mopper8 » Fri Apr 15, 2011 8:55 pm

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Do you know of anyone who has looked at the expected increase (if any) in offensive efficiency for teams when they gain possession off of an opponent...

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I don't have the numbers, but my eyes tell me teams score better off of missed shots and better still off of steals. And they score better off of...

5 +1 Replies

230 Views

Last post by floppymoose View the latest post
Mon Apr 18, 2011 3:20 am
Adjusted +/-

Last post by floppymoose « Fri Apr 15, 2011 5:49 pm
Replies: 22 +1
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by Rudruff » Tue Mar 15, 2011 9:07 am

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Trying to understand a little more about what the "adjustment" is and how it is derived.

I understand that it is trying to overcome...

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Yeah, but WHY Collison? Surely you can't just intangible and hustle and b-ball iq and take charges to that sort of impact?

Maybe you can. The...
22 +1 Replies

1,145 Views

Last post by floppymoose View the latest post
Fri Apr 15, 2011 5:49 pm
"Mailbag: Last-Place Teams Who Beat the League

Last post by tclg « Tue Apr 12, 2011 5:06 pm
Replies: 2 +1
by nonemus » Sun Apr 10, 2011 6:44 pm

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Lo and behold, the 2011 Cavaliers are indeed on the list.

Notice how much harder this feat is to pull off now than in the NBA's early days, simply...

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Thats pretty cool. That was right before arenas got his first big contract right? J rich was also a beast on the break.

2 +1 Replies

287 Views

Last post by tclg View the latest post
Tue Apr 12, 2011 5:06 pm
Any site that has historical box scores?

Last post by Doctor MJ « Thu Apr 7, 2011 6:59 pm
Replies: 2 +1
by ropjhk » Wed Apr 6, 2011 8:23 pm

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Does anybody know of any website that has boxscores from before the 1985-1986 season? Basketball-reference only goes back to that season.

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For old NBA finals games, this is a hidden gem:

2 +1 Replies

475 Views

Last post by Doctor MJ View the latest post
Thu Apr 7, 2011 6:59 pm
Roster Instability

Last post by Nivek « Tue Apr 5, 2011 5:54 pm
Replies: 1 +1
by smauss » Tue Apr 5, 2011 1:10 pm

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Roster instability is a known issue. Not really disputed but sometimes forgotten in the stats of the day and the discussion involving them. I've...

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Depends on what you mean by "instability". Year-to-year, I've seen it measured by percentage of minutes played by the same players. There's...

1 +1 Replies

204 Views

Last post by Nivek View the latest post
Tue Apr 5, 2011 5:54 pm
Helped Offense - Who Benefits from Creation

Last post by ElGee « Mon Apr 4, 2011 5:47 pm

by ElGee » Mon Apr 4, 2011 5:47 pm

A few people had asked about this:

It's the other side of an Opportunity Created -- trying to look at how much the spot-up 3-point shooter...

0 Replies

204 Views

Last post by ElGee View the latest post
Mon Apr 4, 2011 5:47 pm
Player stats in OT?

Last post by Sinant « Wed Mar 30, 2011 9:23 pm

by Sinant » Wed Mar 30, 2011 9:23 pm

Does anyone have the stats for this season, for things like what player has the most points in OT, or how many ppg someone has averaged in OT this...

0 Replies

180 Views

Last post by Sinant View the latest post
Wed Mar 30, 2011 9:23 pm
The Nash Disequilibrium, or Why I Use +/- Statistics

Last post by Doctor MJ « Sun Mar 27, 2011 6:44 am
Replies: 5 +1
by Doctor MJ » Sat Mar 26, 2011 9:16 pm

First post

Another +/- article, this one going back to how I came to have my beliefs about the stat, and explaining precisely it's value (or at least trying)....

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I do the homonym typos all the thyme.

Solidarity my brother. :party:

5 +1 Replies

515 Views

Last post by Doctor MJ View the latest post
Sun Mar 27, 2011 6:44 am
Hollinger playoff odds

Last post by tigermars « Fri Mar 25, 2011 6:02 am
Replies: 5 +1
by tigermars » Thu Mar 24, 2011 3:39 am

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Hollinger's championship odds for the bulls after back to back blowout wins, and some recent struggles by Celtic and Heat, is at 30.3%. I find that...

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does hollinger use simulations? kind of like accuscore?

I think one study which would interesting is the study of correlation between the market and...

5 +1 Replies

473 Views

Last post by tigermars View the latest post
Fri Mar 25, 2011 6:02 am
Can someone here explain some stats to me?

Last post by ronnymac2 « Wed Mar 23, 2011 8:14 am
Replies: 22 +1
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by SUN » Thu Mar 10, 2011 3:49 am

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I notice that you'll see PER, TS, Win shares.. etc, and I don't really get it. It sounds stupid, but I'm just not a stat guy, I'm a steak and potato...

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I believe FG% is useful. TS% is clearly the superior measure of actual efficiency, but FG% can still be used in unison with knowing a player's style...
22 +1 Replies

1,532 Views

Last post by ronnymac2 View the latest post
Wed Mar 23, 2011 8:14 am
Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

Last post by Twinkie defense « Fri Mar 18, 2011 12:19 am
Replies: 5 +1
by Optimism Prime » Fri Mar 4, 2011 9:41 pm

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NOTE: I'm shamelessly cross-posting this from the Rockets forum. ;) Figured it'd make sense to have it here too.

Lots of good stuff going on here....

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No but I think it is clear that Monta can get to the rim at will, and when he does that he is collapsing the defense and leading to wide-open...

5 +1 Replies

479 Views

Last post by Twinkie defense View the latest post
Fri Mar 18, 2011 12:19 am
Defensive Errors

Last post by ElGee « Tue Mar 15, 2011 9:34 pm

by ElGee » Tue Mar 15, 2011 9:34 pm

Quick post I put together on the defensive errors I tracked. A lot of defensive theory at the root of errors: basically, don't give up open shots and...

0 Replies

256 Views

Last post by ElGee View the latest post
Tue Mar 15, 2011 9:34 pm
NBA Universe Stats and Information

Last post by Shinyhubcaps « Sun Mar 13, 2011 3:22 am
Replies: 1 +1
by JordansBulls » Thu Mar 3, 2011 9:07 pm

First post

Never seen this site before, but I like it as it has information more organized for quick reference.

Last post

Thanks for posting. I like the leaders at a glance. It shows like most recent scoring champ, player with most scoring champs, and team with most...

1 +1 Replies

314 Views

Last post by Shinyhubcaps View the latest post
Sun Mar 13, 2011 3:22 am
10-11 Clutch Stats - Last 30/10 seconds

Last post by DrewBynum77 « Thu Mar 10, 2011 8:04 pm
Replies: 21 +1
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by Imadogg » Thu Mar 10, 2011 11:19 am

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If you haven't seen my other "clutch" thread, check it out:

I decided to look up the stats of a few other guys for just this season. And...

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Really? You guys even watch games? People here didn't really know Dirk is clutch? (well, at least in the regular season)

Even in the game they lost...
21 +1 Replies

1,912 Views

Last post by DrewBynum77 View the latest post
Thu Mar 10, 2011 8:04 pm
Kobe Theory: Adventures in Distorted Probability

Last post by Gongxi « Thu Mar 10, 2011 2:25 am
Replies: 7 +1
by Doctor MJ » Sat Jan 29, 2011 11:32 pm

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With all the talk about Kobe's clutchness recently, I've written an article on the subject. I see it as a counterpart to what I described in...

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And this is also why it absolutely makes sense for someone like Dwyer to say, “No, I don’t care if someone else is a millionaire because of his...

7 +1 Replies

985 Views

Last post by Gongxi View the latest post
Thu Mar 10, 2011 2:25 am
Debate: Melo's TS%

Last post by Dr Positivity « Mon Mar 7, 2011 8:11 pm
Replies: 244 +1
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by cgmw » Thu Mar 3, 2011 4:58 am

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Axiom: It is highly beneficial to the Knicks that Carmelo Anthony scores above average total points on slightly below average true shooting %....

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Melo's TS% is OK because teams still have to throw doubles at him or else he'll burn them. Melo makes your offense significantly harder to guard. And...
244 +1 Replies

8,070 Views

Last post by Dr Positivity View the latest post
Mon Mar 7, 2011 8:11 pm
Team performance by quarter?

Last post by ElGee « Sun Mar 6, 2011 10:19 pm

by ElGee » Sun Mar 6, 2011 10:19 pm

Does anyone know of a site that posts point differentials by quarter for teams?

eg Team A
1st Q Avg. 23.2 for / 21.1 against
2nd Q Avg. 21.6 for /...

0 Replies

246 Views

Last post by ElGee View the latest post
Sun Mar 6, 2011 10:19 pm

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