Around The NBA : 2023 Offseason Edition

[kodo]

The regular season is important. But I was watching a video of Bob Myers talking about post-season basketball and how it's a completely different animal.
He went into detail about how the things you do in the regular season are scouted and taken away in the post season and how stars play matters. Some guys can't elevate their play when it matters most and others can.

Yep that happened to Jaylen Brown. Looks like Miami was pretty good at it, deciding the Boston series. I thought it was a great decision to focus on removing BOS's 2nd best player. I remember trying to stop MJ was always a losing strategy. But destroying Brown's 26 ppg easily takes any team into win potential vs Boston and is much easier.

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2023/5/31/23743136/jaylen-brown-boston-celtics-offseason-nba-playoffs-analysis

Not only do the Heat deserve substantial praise for the scheme and its execution, but their scouting, understanding and manipulating of Brown’s tendencies were incredible. They knew his moves and the process leading up to them, which they seized advantage of at various points, illuminated below by a sampling of wins for their defense.

On the first clip, Butler is aware that Brown likes to make contact with his defender before pivoting into a turnaround jumper, so he pulls the chair and spurs a turnover as Brown folds to the ground. On the next play, Martin and Adebayo are ready for the Marcus Smart-to-Brown backdoor cut that Boston loves going to in transition (Miami repeatedly snuffed this one out). Then, Vincent is sitting on Brown’s between-the-legs move, primed for it as soon as Brown tries to swipe him away with his off-arm. Lastly, Robinson anticipates the stepback three and erases it.

[MrFortune3]

The regular season is important. But I was watching a video of Bob Myers talking about post-season basketball and how it's a completely different animal.
He went into detail about how the things you do in the regular season are scouted and taken away in the post season and how stars play matters. Some guys can't elevate their play when it matters most and others can.

Yep that happened to Jaylen Brown. Looks like Miami was pretty good at it, deciding the Boston series. I thought it was a great decision to focus on removing BOS's 2nd best player. I remember trying to stop MJ was always a losing strategy. But destroying Brown's 26 ppg easily takes any team into win potential vs Boston and is much easier.

https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2023/5/31/23743136/jaylen-brown-boston-celtics-offseason-nba-playoffs-analysis

Not only do the Heat deserve substantial praise for the scheme and its execution, but their scouting, understanding and manipulating of Brown’s tendencies were incredible. They knew his moves and the process leading up to them, which they seized advantage of at various points, illuminated below by a sampling of wins for their defense.

On the first clip, Butler is aware that Brown likes to make contact with his defender before pivoting into a turnaround jumper, so he pulls the chair and spurs a turnover as Brown folds to the ground. On the next play, Martin and Adebayo are ready for the Marcus Smart-to-Brown backdoor cut that Boston loves going to in transition (Miami repeatedly snuffed this one out). Then, Vincent is sitting on Brown’s between-the-legs move, primed for it as soon as Brown tries to swipe him away with his off-arm. Lastly, Robinson anticipates the stepback three and erases it.

The Heat are one of the best organizations at scouting and the way that they play, their guys will sacrifice for the good of the team.
It's hard to get that kind of culture in the NBA. It starts at Riley and trickles down.

That's one of the reasons why the Bulls need to get longer and more athletic. Teams are going to take away something in the playoffs.
You have to have long athletic guys to counter that and also to be able to match up with your problematic players.

[MrFortune3]

Vogel as the new coach of the Suns is interesting. I wonder what they ultimately do with Aston.

[madvillian]

I was getting some "Noah as the point center" flashbacks with Bam last night. Ultimately you need a team capable of putting up points in a hurry like Sactown or the Warriors to keep up with Denver. There's just no way that a team using Bam as a hub center can compete with a team that has Jokic and Murry playing at their current level. Yea Duncan Robinson and others will shoot better but Jokic doesn't even have to expend energy on defense in this series and will just pick and choose his spots offensively. As soon as Miami got within 10 last night Jokic actually started playing and the lead would go right back up to 15.

[Dan Z]

Yeah but Strus, Martin, and Robinson going 2 for 23 erased what good Highsmith did. Just ouch.

I hate to be a grumpy old man about this, and obviously I love the NBA. But this might be the biggest problem with the whole league and I’m afraid there is no going back.

As players say in post game interviews, it’s a make or miss league. More specifically, it’s a make or miss your 3s league. It takes one single element of the game and elevates it’s significance drastically to the point that other skills are diminished. Which in turn makes the game more monotonous from an entertainment perspective.

The best team with the deepest and most diverse pool of skills, talent, team play and coaching should generally win. Not the team who simply gets hot enough from 3.

There are certainly lots of counterpoints to this that I would agree with and it’s a more nuanced issue than I’m discussing here in this short post. But it’s a problem for fans like me. Basketball is a beautiful and multidimensional game in design. But at the NBA level it’s a shooting/foul drawing contest more often than not which is not what I consider as “basketball game” to be. Bums me out.

I agree with you. Basketball was never invented with the idea that the person who can shoot the best from the farthest wins.

I doubt that will change anytime soon, but I think the league could do three things that would make it better.

1. Crack down on flops. Maybe even penalize a player who is caught flopping. Do the best you can to not to allow it.

2. Call travels/palming/double dribbles more often than they currently too. Players get away with those three things too much.

3. Only allow three steps for forward momentum (which is what the rule was originally designed for). That way a player can't jump backwards to gain an advantage against an opponent. Let's see a player try to get a three point shot off when a defender is able to stay in front of them.

[Dan Z]

Vogel as the new coach of the Suns is interesting. I wonder what they ultimately do with Aston.

I was surprised to hear that they hired him. Did they even talk to Nurse or Bud?

Looking back I don't think trading for Durant was a good move for them, but it's too late now.

[MrFortune3]

Vogel as the new coach of the Suns is interesting. I wonder what they ultimately do with Aston.

I was surprised to hear that they hired him. Did they even talk to Nurse or Bud?

Looking back I don't think trading for Durant was a good move for them, but it's too late now.

I think Nurse wanted the Sixers due to the Morey connection. Bud doesn't seem to be in any rush to pick a job.
It's a win now situation that has the potential to get ugly really quickly. Paul is 38 and has injury issues seemingly every playoff run.
They depleted their depth and defensive acumen with the Durant trade.

They have 7 players under contract for next season in Booker, Durant, Ayton, Paul, Shamet, Payne and Wainright.
Landale. If you just bring back the same roster as last season you're 13 mil away from the super tax.

You are going to have to make 2-3 additions to the roster to help with depth and vet presence. They sold their soul and future to the Nets for Durant so they have to win a title for it to work out for them. For them to retool the roster, either Ayton has to go or they have to pull off some Laker magic with lower cost additions with upside.

[kyrv]

Yeah but Strus, Martin, and Robinson going 2 for 23 erased what good Highsmith did. Just ouch.

I hate to be a grumpy old man about this, and obviously I love the NBA. But this might be the biggest problem with the whole league and I’m afraid there is no going back.

As players say in post game interviews, it’s a make or miss league. More specifically, it’s a make or miss your 3s league. It takes one single element of the game and elevates it’s significance drastically to the point that other skills are diminished. Which in turn makes the game more monotonous from an entertainment perspective.

The best team with the deepest and most diverse pool of skills, talent, team play and coaching should generally win. Not the team who simply gets hot enough from 3.

There are certainly lots of counterpoints to this that I would agree with and it’s a more nuanced issue than I’m discussing here in this short post. But it’s a problem for fans like me. Basketball is a beautiful and multidimensional game in design. But at the NBA level it’s a shooting/foul drawing contest more often than not which is not what I consider as “basketball game” to be. Bums me out.

I really don't think it's much if any more nuanced than that. If I miss a game and check the box score, I look at the 3 pt shooting, generally don't have to look any further to explain why 1 team won. Even more so in college.

That's actually good news for Miami, they were the best 3pt shooting team in the playoffs going in to the finals.

[MrSparkle]

Jokic (and the Nuggets) are the best half-court offense since the 3-peat Shaq Lakers. Pick your poison: the big man can post you up, face you up, deliver the perfect pass, and if those 3 sure-fire options don't work, you've got a mini-Kobe making circus shots and executing the PnR perfectly.

The asterisk-Warriors (KD) were more dominant, but screw that team. Transition/blitz 3P bombs ruined basketball for everybody.

[Dan Z]

I see that the Suns hired Vogel. He's okay, but I'm surprised they didn't go after Nurse or Bud.

The problem with the Suns is the KD trade. They gave up a lot for a soon to be 35 year old player. Were they expecting to be champions right away?

[Mk0]

I'm trying to come up with a pun about Nuggets and cooking and Heat, but didn't sleep well and keep coming up empty. I imagine it'd be a good one though.

The Nuggets have shown they could handle the pressure(cooker) so well, they can more than handle the Heat!

[kodo]

KD Warriors had an offense of 113 back in 2018.
This year, there are 22 teams with better offenses than 113, including teams like the Wizards. Denver wasn't even a top 4 offense at 117.
The acceleration in scoring is something else.

[Mk0]

I see that the Suns hired Vogel. He's okay, but I'm surprised they didn't go after Nurse or Bud.

The problem with the Suns is the KD trade. They gave up a lot for a soon to be 35 year old player. Were they expecting to be champions right away?

Vogel will fix their defense. Their offense will be whatever Booker/KD want it to be.

*Chris Paul is the same age as Dianne Feinstein. He gets no say.

[madvillian]

Jokic (and the Nuggets) are the best half-court offense since the 3-peat Shaq Lakers. Pick your poison: the big man can post you up, face you up, deliver the perfect pass, and if those 3 sure-fire options don't work, you've got a mini-Kobe making circus shots and executing the PnR perfectly.

The asterisk-Warriors (KD) were more dominant, but screw that team. Transition/blitz 3P bombs ruined basketball for everybody.

Yea I don't really know how you guard them when you have Jokic, who is arguably the best passer already in the history of the league, and who is impossible to get the ball off, and also Murray playing like a more perimeter oriented prime D Wade. If those two are struggling for a minute you still have the slashing of Gordon and the consistent shooting of Porter Jr. If they are all firing at the same time you get that 80 point half explosion like they had against LA .

I mentioned this to my hoops head buddy and he agreed: Jokic has that Jordan like recognition of when to get his and when to feed his team mates. Lebron sorta has it, but I feel like Jokic is the closest thing to that Jordan like 6th sense of what his team needs from him at that moment.

[Dan Z]

Vogel as the new coach of the Suns is interesting. I wonder what they ultimately do with Aston.

I was surprised to hear that they hired him. Did they even talk to Nurse or Bud?

Looking back I don't think trading for Durant was a good move for them, but it's too late now.

I think Nurse wanted the Sixers due to the Morey connection. Bud doesn't seem to be in any rush to pick a job.
It's a win now situation that has the potential to get ugly really quickly. Paul is 38 and has injury issues seemingly every playoff run.
They depleted their depth and defensive acumen with the Durant trade.

They have 7 players under contract for next season in Booker, Durant, Ayton, Paul, Shamet, Payne and Wainright.
Landale. If you just bring back the same roster as last season you're 13 mil away from the super tax.

You are going to have to make 2-3 additions to the roster to help with depth and vet presence. They sold their soul and future to the Nets for Durant so they have to win a title for it to work out for them. For them to retool the roster, either Ayton has to go or they have to pull off some Laker magic with lower cost additions with upside.

Yikes! Now that you put it that way they're in an even worse situation than I thought.

I looked it up and they gave the Nets first round picks in 2023, 25, 27, a swap in 28 and a pick in 2029.

[MrFortune3]

I was surprised to hear that they hired him. Did they even talk to Nurse or Bud?

Looking back I don't think trading for Durant was a good move for them, but it's too late now.

I think Nurse wanted the Sixers due to the Morey connection. Bud doesn't seem to be in any rush to pick a job.
It's a win now situation that has the potential to get ugly really quickly. Paul is 38 and has injury issues seemingly every playoff run.
They depleted their depth and defensive acumen with the Durant trade.

They have 7 players under contract for next season in Booker, Durant, Ayton, Paul, Shamet, Payne and Wainright.
Landale. If you just bring back the same roster as last season you're 13 mil away from the super tax.

You are going to have to make 2-3 additions to the roster to help with depth and vet presence. They sold their soul and future to the Nets for Durant so they have to win a title for it to work out for them. For them to retool the roster, either Ayton has to go or they have to pull off some Laker magic with lower cost additions with upside.

Yikes! Now that you put it that way they're in an even worse situation than I thought.

I looked it up and they gave the Nets first round picks in 2023, 25, 27, a swap in 28 and a pick in 2029.

The Suns are Nets-Celtics trade level screwed right now if they don’t win a title. They almost have to trade Ayton off for depth and better fitting pieces, also to potentially recoup some draft capital. Paul’s contract while only partially guaranteed is not readily moveable due to how much the suns can take back and they need a PG addition to the roster who can start.

[Dan Z]

I think Nurse wanted the Sixers due to the Morey connection. Bud doesn't seem to be in any rush to pick a job.
It's a win now situation that has the potential to get ugly really quickly. Paul is 38 and has injury issues seemingly every playoff run.
They depleted their depth and defensive acumen with the Durant trade.

They have 7 players under contract for next season in Booker, Durant, Ayton, Paul, Shamet, Payne and Wainright.
Landale. If you just bring back the same roster as last season you're 13 mil away from the super tax.

You are going to have to make 2-3 additions to the roster to help with depth and vet presence. They sold their soul and future to the Nets for Durant so they have to win a title for it to work out for them. For them to retool the roster, either Ayton has to go or they have to pull off some Laker magic with lower cost additions with upside.

Yikes! Now that you put it that way they're in an even worse situation than I thought.

I looked it up and they gave the Nets first round picks in 2023, 25, 27, a swap in 28 and a pick in 2029.

The Suns are Nets-Celtics trade level screwed right now if they don’t win a title. They almost have to trade Ayton off for depth and better fitting pieces, also to potentially recoup some draft capital. Paul’s contract while only partially guaranteed is not readily moveable due to how much the suns can take back and they need a PG addition to the roster who can start.

It's crazy when a team goes all in with a move that gives them little to no flexibility if it doesn't work out. Minnesota did that too with the Gobert trade.

I'm not sure what value Ayton has around the league. I guess we'll find out soon enough.

I don't know why they didn't just keep the team together (pre KD). They were already championship contenders with that roster.

[kyrv]

KD Warriors had an offense of 113 back in 2018.
This year, there are 22 teams with better offenses than 113, including teams like the Wizards. Denver wasn't even a top 4 offense at 117.
The acceleration in scoring is something else.

Right, Miami had the lowest scoring offense in the league and a few years ago they'd have been the high flying Heat

[MrFortune3]

Yikes! Now that you put it that way they're in an even worse situation than I thought.

I looked it up and they gave the Nets first round picks in 2023, 25, 27, a swap in 28 and a pick in 2029.

The Suns are Nets-Celtics trade level screwed right now if they don’t win a title. They almost have to trade Ayton off for depth and better fitting pieces, also to potentially recoup some draft capital. Paul’s contract while only partially guaranteed is not readily moveable due to how much the suns can take back and they need a PG addition to the roster who can start.

It's crazy when a team goes all in with a move that gives them little to no flexibility if it doesn't work out. Minnesota did that too with the Gobert trade.

I'm not sure what value Ayton has around the league. I guess we'll find out soon enough.

I don't know why they didn't just keep the team together (pre KD). They were already championship contenders with that roster.

James Jones didn't want to make the trade because of the cost but Ishba wanted a splashy move to enter into his ownership reign and told him to do it.
Bridges and Ayton keyed their D. It was a bad move to lose Bridges and depth + picks. Durant is a elite player but the issue with trading for guys like him is that instead of elevating the roster, it depletes it.

The Wolves are at some point going to have to trade KAT. He just isn't it. They have to build their core around Edwards and supplement the right pieces around him. Gobert can anchor their defense and allow Edwards to be on his elite ascension ****.

[Dresden]

Yeah but Strus, Martin, and Robinson going 2 for 23 erased what good Highsmith did. Just ouch.

I hate to be a grumpy old man about this, and obviously I love the NBA. But this might be the biggest problem with the whole league and I’m afraid there is no going back.

As players say in post game interviews, it’s a make or miss league. More specifically, it’s a make or miss your 3s league. It takes one single element of the game and elevates it’s significance drastically to the point that other skills are diminished. Which in turn makes the game more monotonous from an entertainment perspective.

The best team with the deepest and most diverse pool of skills, talent, team play and coaching should generally win. Not the team who simply gets hot enough from 3.

There are certainly lots of counterpoints to this that I would agree with and it’s a more nuanced issue than I’m discussing here in this short post. But it’s a problem for fans like me. Basketball is a beautiful and multidimensional game in design. But at the NBA level it’s a shooting/foul drawing contest more often than not which is not what I consider as “basketball game” to be. Bums me out.

I really don't think it's much if any more nuanced than that. If I miss a game and check the box score, I look at the 3 pt shooting, generally don't have to look any further to explain why 1 team won. Even more so in college.

That's actually good news for Miami, they were the best 3pt shooting team in the playoffs going in to the finals.

I think two things that are being overlooked- defense, which can impact a team's 3 point shooting, and turnovers/second chance points/points in transition.