Ideal salary distributions

League Circles · Post #1 » by **League Circles** » Thu Dec 5, 2024 9:36 pm

The cap this year is basically 141 million, and the tax 171.

Lets do an exercise where we allocate an ideal generic distribution for a contender, this year, paying 171 million for players. I'm not as knowledgeable anymore as many of you, so please correct my errors.

#1 guy: 50 million (about 35% of cap)
#2: same - 50 mil ("overpay")
#3: 30 mil
#4: 10 mil
#5: 10 mil
#6: 5 mil
#7: 5 mil
#8: 5 mil
#9 through #14: 1 mil each (6 mil total)

Now obviously an ideal team pays into the tax, and there are other subtleties that make the above a little oversimplified of course such as upcoming increases etc, but IMO, the numbers above should give people very, very heavy pause in committing to guys. MOST of our rotation is already overpaid IMO.

Post #2 » by **CBS7** » Thu Dec 5, 2024 10:53 pm

4-7 are underpaid. You're not gonna have a good team with players who are paid that salary, on average, unless youre repeatedly hitting in the draft.

sco · Post #3 » by **sco** » Thu Dec 5, 2024 11:56 pm

I think the issue is that it doesn't factor in guys on a rookie scale, although most contending teams have their key guys past the rookie contract.

Post #4 » by **Michael Jackson** » Fri Dec 6, 2024 3:18 am

Are there any 1 mil contracts in the NBA anymore? What is the vet min? Rookie scale is more than that

League Circles · Post #5 » by **League Circles** » Fri Dec 6, 2024 3:27 am

Michael Jackson wrote:Are there any 1 mil contracts in the NBA anymore? What is the vet min? Rookie scale is more than that

League minimum is now just over 1.1 million. Vet minimum counts about 2.1 million against the cap. I personally don't think even the vet min is really worth the premium over league minimum for 3rd string players. I'd honestly have only 2nd round picks making their true minimum and g league "vets" as my third stringers on 1 year deals if I was running a team and put virtually 100% of my payroll budget in my top 8-10 players.

meekrab · Post #6 » by **meekrab** » Fri Dec 6, 2024 3:54 am

You want 2 MVP candidates and 6 switchable 3/D players. The salary distributions are whatever you have to pay to get them.

2weekswithpay · Post #7 » by **2weekswithpay** » Fri Dec 6, 2024 5:40 am

#1 guy: 42-43M (30% of the cap)
#2: 42-43M
#3: 20M
#4: 16M
#5: 14M
#6: 10M
#7: 6M (Rookie scale contract year 3 pick drafted #9 overall)
#8: 5M (Rookie scale contract year 2 pick drafted #16 overall)
#9 3M (2nd round pick)
#10 2M (2nd round pick)
#11-15 Vet minimums/ More 2nd rounders

Made some changes. First, only 14 players are making supermax money. Only the Sixers and the Suns have more than one player currently on a supermax contract. It's unlikely you have more than one supermax on the roster.

Then you have 55-65M to pay 3-4 starters or guys that can contribute in the playoffs. Another 10-15M on first round draft picks.
The rest should be used on second-round picks or vet minimums.

League Circles · Post #8 » by **League Circles** » Fri Dec 6, 2024 2:41 pm

2weekswithpay wrote:#1 guy: 42-43M (30% of the cap)
#2: 42-43M
#3: 20M
#4: 16M
#5: 14M
#6: 10M
#7: 6M (Rookie scale contract year 3 pick drafted #9 overall)
#8: 5M (Rookie scale contract year 2 pick drafted #16 overall)
#9 3M (2nd round pick)
#10 2M (2nd round pick)
#11-15 Vet minimums/ More 2nd rounders

Made some changes. First, only 14 players are making supermax money. Only the Sixers and the Suns have more than one player currently on a supermax contract. It's unlikely you have more than one supermax on the roster.

Then you have 55-65M to pay 3-4 starters or guys that can contribute in the playoffs. Another 10-15M on first round draft picks.
The rest should be used on second-round picks or vet minimums.

This sounds like you're saying that ideally you don't have a top 14 player in the league.

League Circles · Post #9 » by **League Circles** » Fri Dec 6, 2024 2:59 pm

On a related note, this is how I'd rank our players projections, IF HEALTHY (Ball included), as far as the best they could be on a legit contender, if the roster was constructed well. And this is as far as their overall quality as a player, not at all restricted to scoring option rank or "production". Offense/defense 50/50 weighted in ranking consideration:

Matas: projected #1 or #2 ceiling, more likely lower
Zach: #3
Coby: #3
Ball: #3

Giddey, Patrick, Ayo: #5

Vuc, Smith: #6

Phillips, Terry, Carter, Duarte, Craig, THT : irrelevant

Ayo, Giddey, Patrick, Vuc and Smith are all kinda on the fence of #5 - #6 IMO as far as projections.

To me this exercise gives a clearer sense of what guys should be worth:

Underpaid:
Coby
Ball (when healthy)
Matas (very theoretically in terms of projection by end of rookie deal)

Paid correctly approx:
Smith
Ayo
Giddey (on his current deal lol)
Phillips
Craig
THT

Overpaid:
Patrick
Zach
Vuc
Carter
Duarte
Terry

2weekswithpay · Post #10 » by **2weekswithpay** » Fri Dec 6, 2024 3:27 pm

League Circles wrote:
2weekswithpay wrote:#1 guy: 42-43M (30% of the cap)
#2: 42-43M
#3: 20M
#4: 16M
#5: 14M
#6: 10M
#7: 6M (Rookie scale contract year 3 pick drafted #9 overall)
#8: 5M (Rookie scale contract year 2 pick drafted #16 overall)
#9 3M (2nd round pick)
#10 2M (2nd round pick)
#11-15 Vet minimums/ More 2nd rounders

Made some changes. First, only 14 players are making supermax money. Only the Sixers and the Suns have more than one player currently on a supermax contract. It's unlikely you have more than one supermax on the roster.

Then you have 55-65M to pay 3-4 starters or guys that can contribute in the playoffs. Another 10-15M on first round draft picks.
The rest should be used on second-round picks or vet minimums.

This sounds like you're saying that ideally you don't have a top 14 player in the league.

Luka, Tatum, and SGA are top 10 players and not one is on a supermax contract yet.

League Circles · Post #11 » by **League Circles** » Fri Dec 6, 2024 3:37 pm

2weekswithpay wrote:
League Circles wrote:
2weekswithpay wrote:#1 guy: 42-43M (30% of the cap)
#2: 42-43M
#3: 20M
#4: 16M
#5: 14M
#6: 10M
#7: 6M (Rookie scale contract year 3 pick drafted #9 overall)
#8: 5M (Rookie scale contract year 2 pick drafted #16 overall)
#9 3M (2nd round pick)
#10 2M (2nd round pick)
#11-15 Vet minimums/ More 2nd rounders

Made some changes. First, only 14 players are making supermax money. Only the Sixers and the Suns have more than one player currently on a supermax contract. It's unlikely you have more than one supermax on the roster.

Then you have 55-65M to pay 3-4 starters or guys that can contribute in the playoffs. Another 10-15M on first round draft picks.
The rest should be used on second-round picks or vet minimums.

This sounds like you're saying that ideally you don't have a top 14 player in the league.

Luka, Tatum, and SGA are top 10 players and not one is on a supermax contract yet.

I know, but the point of the discussion is how to best allocate realistic constraint dollars, not best case for individuals being underpaid. You make a good point that I overlooked which is that guys can make only 30% of cap til like the 8th or 9th year (I thought it was after 4 years), but obviously you don't want to get rid of a deserving guy when he's 28 years old and eligible for 35%. So maybe at that point, for purposes of discussion, the team would go into the tax or maybe for the #2 guy we could say 43 mil instead of 50, leaving another 7 mil maybe for the 4th starter or something.